Tag Archives: AI

AI: Capital Bonfire?

AI is the biggest opportunity in 20 years. It could also kill countless VC funds.


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I took a sip of some yummy espresso last Thursday and plopped down at the laptop. Time to dig into a deal memo from a VC I really respect.

He laid out a clear view of AI’s future. And if you’re an investor, it’s scary. 😲

Tons of startups are all racing to become the next hot thing in AI. They’re all doing the same things with the same tools.

Most will fight each other to the death. With differentiation nonexistent, margins are headed to zero.

Now, what if we add VC’s with billions and a bad case of FOMO?

A bunch of massively overfunded companies will fight to the death. No one will make money.

And many AI-heavy funds will be destroyed. Or as this investor put it, we are headed for a “capital bonfire.”

I tried to poke holes in his argument. But I couldn’t.

It’s not that hard to integrate AI tools into software. A founder I know did it in just 6 hours using OpenAI.

If you’re not something more than a wrapper for OpenAI, you’re not going to make it.

Geez Francis, you really hate AI, don’t you?

Not at all! I think ChatGPT and similar technologies are an incredible revolution.

But just because a new technology is incredibly useful doesn’t make it profitable. Toasters are very useful, but making them isn’t a great business.

There are too many other companies making the same thing.

Aggravating the defensibility problem are massive valuations.

I’ve seen AI companies with no revenue raise “seed” rounds at $150 million or more. I even saw an AI hardware company recently raising “seed” at over $400 million!

These valuations don’t make sense for companies that are barely off the ground. As Fred Wilson of Union Square Ventures has proven, investors can’t make money with $100 million seed rounds.

So who wins in AI?

Big tech will be huge winners. Microsoft practically owns OpenAI.

It has also integrated AI into all its Office products. You can even ask your calendar to prepare you for an upcoming meeting!

Microsoft owns the platform many people already use. Then they serve this captive audience some great AI features.

That’s a winning model.

Another winning model is focusing on data. I’m looking for companies focusing on unique data sets, data cleaning, and better data processing.

Data fuels every AI model. Better data means better outputs.

Even if many AI companies go bust, selling data services can still be a great business. Airlines have a way of going bankrupt, but Saudi Arabia’s doing pretty well selling them fuel.

Let other investors drop money onto every AI startup from a helicopter. I’ll be taking careful kill shots at big game.

After all, we only have so many bullets.

Where do you think AI is headed?

Leave a comment and let me know!

More on tech:

Where Should Startups Put Their Money Now?

“How Can I Be Helpful?” Gets Put to the Test

SVB Fallout

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From Design to Code in Seconds with AI

I think I just saw the future.

A new tool called Bifrost can turn any Figma design into code instantly using AI. The alpha was just released yesterday, and already Twitter is blowing up.

Bifrost lets you take a graphical design for your product and make it real.

First, you design the appearance of your app using Figma, the ubiquitous design tool. Next, you turn it into React code with a couple of clicks.

It even learns how your team likes to code to make sure its output matches your style.

The average front-end web developer makes $152,000 a year. If Bifrost can make them even 20% more productive, that’s worth $30,000 a year.

Per person.

Today, Bifrost can create web app front-ends. In the future, Bifrost and tools like it may produce all forms of software.

Perhaps most amazing is the tiny team that produced this huge advance. Bifrost appears to have just four engineers.

I’m very excited about what a tool like Bifrost can do! Many people have awesome ideas for products but don’t know how to code them.

Removing that barrier could unleash a whole new wave of entrepreneurs.

What do you think of Bifrost? Leave a comment and let me know!

More on tech:

The Hard Thing About Hard Things

Consumer Startups: What Works and What Doesn’t

Zero to One

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Poe: One Chatbot to Rule Them All

Every day, there seems to be a new AI chatbot. But what if one bot could query any of them — one chatbot to rule them all?


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Enter Poe, a new chatbot from Quora. Poe can query three different chatbots to help you find the best answer.

From TechCrunch:


Q&A platform Quora has opened up public access to its new AI chatbot app, Poe, which lets users ask questions and get answers from a range of AI chatbots, including those from ChatGPT maker, OpenAI, and other companies like Anthropic. Beyond allowing users to experiment with new AI technologies, Poe’s content will ultimately help to evolve Quora itself, the company says.

Let’s see what Poe can do!

First, you’ll have to download an iOS app. Inexplicably, Poe doesn’t have a web version.

Quora makes downloading Poe so painful I would’ve given up if it wasn’t for this blog! But anything for you guys. 🙂

You enter your phone number and get a text verification code. Okay, whew, done…right?

Wrong. Next you have to enter your e-mail and get another verification code there!

Are we talking to a chatbot or launching a missile?

But once you’re in, Poe is actually pretty cool. I asked the same question to all 3 bots on offer.

Let’s see who wins!

First up: OpenAI’s Sage. “What are the most important things for angel investors to know?” I asked.



Sage’s answer is decent, but too abstract. It advises me to “have a plan to manage” risks — but what should the plan be?

A better answer would tell me to diversify.

You see the same problem throughout Sage’s response. It tells me to pay attention to investment time horizon, but gives me no idea what the time horizon is!

Somewhat useful, but woefully incomplete.

On to Dragonfly, also from OpenAI…

Dragonfly’s answer is pithy and more helpful. It tells us to diversify our bets, one of the most important things angels should know.

But Dragonfly is also too abstract. It tells me to be comfortable with the terms of the investment.

Uh, yeah. But what do good terms look like?

Okay Claude, we’re counting on you…

Claude’s answer is by far the best. It tells us to limit risk and be aware of the time horizon, just like Sage.

But unlike Sage, it tells us how to limit risk and what the time horizon is! This is a dramatically more useful answer.

Claude also tells us not to rely on “hype or gut feel.” If only we’d had this in 2021!

If Poe can fix the glaring usability problems, it could be very popular. But Quora’s real play may be in AI infrastructure.

Poe plans to offer an API to give developers a plug-and-play chatbot UI. This would let programmers turn any AI tool into a bot.

The API opportunity could be huge. Just like Stripe made integrating payments easy, Poe could be the go-to for turning your code into a usable product.

Soon, we may be able to plug into specialized data sets in seconds and answer any question. How awesome would that be?

What do you think of Poe and other AI chatbots?

Leave a comment and let me know!

More on tech:

The Hard Thing About Hard Things

Consumer Startups: What Works and What Doesn’t

ChatGPT for Medicine

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GPT-Powered Search with Perplexity AI

For all its powers, ChatGPT has a fatal flaw: its training data only goes through 2021. Ask about anything recent, and it’s stumped.


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But a new tool lets you use the power of AI to find up-to-the-minute information. It’s called Perplexity AI, and it might be the best search engine ever.

Just a month old, Perplexity AI looks like a traditional search engine. But it uses AI to answer your question, instead of just providing links.

Its answers are pithier than ChatGPT’s — usually about a paragraph. And unlike ChatGPT, Perplexity cites its sources.

This helps us confirm the results are accurate. The lack of sources is a serious problem on ChatGPT, since it occasionally produces incorrect answers.

Let’s give this baby a test drive!

So Perplexity, how’s the market doing so far this year?

The answer isn’t perfect — it’s leaving off today’s return. But it’s accurate enough to be useful.

Meanwhile, ChatGPT is stumped:

Google doesn’t even seem to understand the question. It returns today’s performance only:

Let’s try something a little less time sensitive: what are the best selling albums ever?

Perplexity nails it, giving us a complete answer with excellent citations.

ChatGPT’s answer is restricted to US sales. It’s a decent response, but not as complete an answer as Perplexity’s.

In all, Perplexity seems better at answering questions than ChatGPT. But if you want to generate content, like a blog post or a screenplay, ChatGPT is the right choice.

Where does this leave search giant Google?

Microsoft plans to integrate ChatGPT into its search engine, Bing. Perplexity has already produced something similar, and there will surely be many more.

Meanwhile, nearly two months after ChatGPT’s release, Google has shipped….nothing.

If Google continues to stand still, its competitors will pass it by. And if people lose the habit of Googling, they won’t be back.

I remember the first time I used Google. It was so clearly better than other search engines.

Perplexity feels that way now. The results trounce Google, giving me a direct answer to my questions instead of a page of links.

Search meaning “a page of links” is dead. The question is, will Google die along with it?

What do you think of AI search? Leave a comment at the bottom and let me know!

I’m off tomorrow, so there will be no blog. See you on Wednesday!

More on tech:

Google Books on Steroids with Allsearch.ai

Me vs. ChatGPT: Who’s a Better Blogger?

VC Funding Down 67% in December

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Google Books on Steroids with Allsearch.ai

Another day, another Generative AI breakthrough! The latest: a search engine that queries thousands of books to answer any question.

It’s called Allsearch.ai. And it just might change research forever.


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I tested it out this morning with three prompts. Let’s see how it does!

I’ve been hopping into an icy shower every day this week. So first, I asked about the health benefits of cold plunges.

The response wasn’t great, with numerous health benefits ignored.

I don’t think cold exposure protects you from catching the cold. And why Allsearch assumes cold plunges involve a race, I don’t know.

Meanwhile, it missed the benefits to alertness, sleep and hormone levels.

On to prompt # 2…

I decided to go with something more straightforward and historical. This time, Allsearch was on point.

Allsearch correctly notes that the USSR economy was in shambles, which led the government to collapse. Students are going to love using this for their papers!

For the 3rd and final prompt, I dug into the world of technology:

Again, Allsearch’s answer is excellent. It covers personal computing, the space race, and the computer revolution in business.

Where Allsearch beats ChatGPT hands down is in citing sources. If you want to know more about a topic, you have a reading list right there on the page!

You also trust results more when you see where they came from.

I think this is an amazing tool. The results aren’t perfect, but for a version 1.0, it does a great job.

Never one to miss an opportunity, I just contacted the creators to schedule a meeting. This might make a juicy investment. 🙂

What do you think of Allsearch and generative AI? Leave a comment at the bottom and let me know!

Have a great weekend everyone!

More on tech:

Me vs. ChatGPT: Who’s a Better Blogger?

VC Funding Down 67% in December

How Startups Change Lives

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Me vs. ChatGPT: Who’s a Better Blogger?

ChatGPT, the hot new tool from OpenAI, excels at writing. So is it time for me to pawn my laptop and ride off into the sunset?


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Today, I decided to see who’s the better writer, me or ChatGPT.

Let’s take a post I wrote about the 6 essential elements of a startup pitch. Could ChatGPT come up with something better?

You be the judge….

My post from April 2022:

Last Thursday, I was preparing to judge a startup pitch competition. I thought to myself, “How can I make sure every startup hits the key points?”

Then, it came to me: a checklist!

Every time you pitch investors, you need to give them certain key pieces of information. Without those details, they may just move on to the next company.

Make sure that never happens to your business! Whenever you pitch, make sure you check off these 6 key elements:

1)  Problem. What problem do you solve? For example, Uber solved the problem of expensive, hard to get taxi rides.

2)  Solution. How do you solve that problem?

Uber makes it easy to get a ride with a simple smartphone app. You always know exactly what you’re paying and where your driver is.

3)  Traction. Show us a chart of your revenue, broken down monthly or quarterly. Also, compute a growth rate using a tool like this.

Investors want to see a strong growth trend. Make absolutely sure you give them that, if at all possible.

Don’t have revenue yet? Show us monthly active users, signups, etc.

4)  Market + Competitors. How big is your market? Who do you compete with?

I don’t get too hung up on complicated market size calculations, but here is a resource on how that is typically done.

I’m more interested in your competitors. Who do you lose deals to? Who do you beat for deals? And why?

Hint: “we don’t have any competitors” is rarely the right answer. Maybe no company does exactly what you do, but who is close?

5)  Team. This is especially critical for early stage startups. At this point, there usually isn’t a ton of performance to sell.

So you have to emphasize the quality of the team. Why are these the best possible people to take on this challenge?

6)  Ask. Here’s one of the strangest things I see: a founder telling a great story with solid traction, and then saying “thank you” and sitting down.

Umm, don’t you want something from us? 

Never forget to tell the investors exactly what you’re asking for! Tell us how much you’re raising, at what valuation, and specify if that’s pre or post-money. (If the valuation includes the money you’re raising, that’s “$X post-money,” also referred to as “$X cap.”)

It’s also good to specify what type of fundraise you’re doing. Is it a SAFE, a priced round, or a convertible note?

Say something like this: “We are raising a $1 million SAFE at a $10 million cap.”

If you hit these 6 key elements, you’ll have a solid pitch that gives investors the details they need. You’ll also have a leg-up on other founders who provide incomplete or unhelpful information.

Best of luck on your fundraise!

Next, I asked ChatGPT to write an article on the same topic:

Here is its answer:

Raising money for a startup can be a daunting task, but having a solid fundraising pitch can make the process a lot smoother. Here is a checklist of items to include in your pitch to give investors a clear understanding of your business and why it’s worth their investment:

  1. Problem: Clearly articulate the problem your business is solving and why it’s important.
  2. Solution: Explain how your product or service addresses the problem and how it’s different from other solutions on the market.
  3. Market size: Provide data on the size of the market you’re targeting and how you plan to capture a share of it.
  4. Traction: Share any traction your business has already gained, such as customer testimonials, partnerships, or revenue.
  5. Team: Introduce the team behind the business and highlight their relevant experience and qualifications.
  6. Business model: Explain how the business will make money and provide financial projections.
  7. Use of funds: Clearly outline how the funds will be used, such as product development, marketing, or hiring.
  8. Ask: End your pitch by clearly stating the amount of funding you’re seeking and the terms of the investment.
  9. Bonus: Show a clear path to exit and give an idea of what investors can expect to gain from the business.

By including these items in your pitch, you’ll be able to give investors a comprehensive understanding of your business and why it’s worth investing in. Remember to keep your pitch clear, concise, and visually engaging.

A strong pitch will also demonstrate that you understand your market, your customers, and your competition. It will also show that you have a clear vision, a solid team, a scalable business model and a sound plan for using the funds.

What strikes me most is how similar they are! 

ChatGPT included all 6 of the items on my checklist. It also added 3 more.

For the most part, I think ChatGPT’s answer is excellent. Clearly stating a problem, showing how you solve it, and showing your traction are critical.

But at certain points, ChatGPT gets sidetracked. It suggests showing projections, which most investors discount pretty quickly. 

It also tells us to show how the company will exit. This is wildly premature for most startups.

An exit is often 10 years off or more. There’s no telling how it will shake out.

What’s more, a founder who’s too focused on an exit is a red flag to investors. 

Are they just looking for a quick win by flipping the company to Big Tech? If so, this will only be a small outcome for the VC’s.

Also, ChatGPT doesn’t provide examples. Examples are helpful in knowing how to frame a problem simply or how to describe the terms of your fundraise.

Moreover, ChatGPT lacks a personal tone. I describe experiences meeting actual founders, which a computer program can’t do.

Sometimes, you want a little of that human touch!

In all, ChatGPT’s writing was surprisingly good. But I think it has a way to go before it puts me out of business. 🙂

Which post did you like better, mine or ChatGPT’s, and why?

Leave a comment at the bottom and let me know!

More on tech:

THE STARTUP PITCH CHECKLIST

VC FUNDING DOWN 67% IN DECEMBER

HOW STARTUPS CHANGE LIVES

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Why I Just Invested in Rilla, the Killer App for Outside Sales

Every day, sales reps go to meetings across America to land that big deal.


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Their managers hope they absorbed the lessons of training and can bring in the sale. Unfortunately, they rarely have the time to go along.

But with cutting edge AI, sales managers can now analyze every customer meeting without ever leaving their office!

Rilla records sales meetings and tags the most important moments. You’ll know if reps are following the script, what customer objections are, and a lot more.

Other platforms like Gong or Chorus may work for inside sales with its clean audio. But for outside sales in the noisy, chaotic world, Rilla is king.

You just press record on a phone or tablet and that’s it! Rilla takes care of everything else.

No wonder sales teams are adopting Rilla at an incredible rate.

Sales managers see a 20-30x productivity increase. Reps get the feedback to make their pitch better than ever, meaning more commissions.

I’m delighted to be an investor in Rilla’s recent seed round. The founder, Sebastian Jimenez, is tenacious and laser-focused on his customers.

If you’re in outside sales, book a demo with Rilla and see what it can do for you!

More on tech:

Seeing Through SBF: How One VC Found the Truth

Getting to $10 Million ARR Without a Series A

Why I Love B2B Startups

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Why Drone Delivery Will Be an Awesome Business

Drones are starting to deliver packages in some parts of America. But can drone deliveries be a viable business?


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Bloomberg is skeptical. From an editorial out this morning:

The biggest hurdle is that drones will be making point-to-point deliveries, which is the quickest but most inefficient way to take packages to homes or businesses.

Despite the hype in the e-commerce market, it’s unlikely the sky will be studded with packages coming in for a landing on doorsteps.

What Bloomberg is missing is drone delivery’s massive advantage in labor costs.

The average UPS driver makes $22 an hour and does about 120 deliveries a day. Even if he’s very efficient and can finish in 8 hours, that’s still $1.47/delivery in labor costs alone.

Compare that to a drone. This sleek model from DJI is a mere $300 on Amazon. If it could make even 1 delivery per hour, 8 hours a day for a year before it wears out, that’s just $0.10 a delivery.

And remember, you don’t have to buy a huge truck, fill a gas tank, or pay benefits to a driver!

Drones may be able to do far fewer deliveries each than a driver can. But drones cost so little, you can afford to buy a swarm of them and still save money.

What’s more, drone delivery makes the most sense where drivers are least efficient: suburban and rural areas. Here, it takes drivers much longer to get to the next stop than in dense cities.

But it’s a perfect environment for drones — lots of space to land!

In a world of ever cheaper hardware, labor costs overwhelm almost everything else. If you can cut out labor and still get the job done, it’s hard to lose.

I look forward to having packages land on my roof. I just hope the porch pirates don’t send their own drones to steal them!

What do you think of drone delivery? Leave a comment at the bottom and let me know!

More on tech:

Robot Pizzas and the Future of Fast Food

Adam Neumann Was Their Biggest Investor — Now He’s Their Biggest Competitor

The Last Fast Food Worker in California

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I Pitched a Robot VC

Every day, founders pitch me on their startups. This morning, I thought “Why not turn the tables for a change?”

So I pitched 3 VC’s on a startup idea. But they weren’t your usual investors — all 3 were robots. 🤖


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These robot VC’s live on a new platform called PitchExpert. They use GPT-3, a form of AI, to ask questions and help you refine your pitch.

I started with an elevator pitch:

It costs $10,000 or more to move into an apartment in many cities. The average person can’t afford that. We provide a loan so you can move into a great apartment today!

Here’s what the grizzled veterans had to say:

VC 1:

I like it! You’re onto something with this idea. Here are a few suggestions to make your firm more attractive to investors and increase its valuation:

  1. Make sure you have a solid business model in place. Figure out how you’re going to generate revenue and profit from this service.
  2. Do some market research to validate your assumption that there is indeed a need for this service. Talk to potential customers and get feedback on what they think of the idea.
  3. Put together a strong team of co-founders and employees who can execute on the business plan and grow the company successfully.

    Hey hey, not a bad reception! And talking to potential customers and figuring out an exact revenue model are great suggestions.

    VC 2
  1. Make sure you are clear on your target market. Who is your ideal customer?
  2. Do your research on the competition. What are they doing and how can you differentiate yourself?
  3. Have a solid plan for how you will make money. How will this business be profitable?

    Not quite as sunny but probably even more useful. Knowing everything about potential customers and competitors is a good tip.

VC 3

This is a terrible idea.

  1. Don’t try to solve the problem of high rent prices.
  2. Instead of a loan, try a subscription model where people pay a monthly fee.
  3. Use that money to help people move into better apartments.

Jerk. I’m going to unplug this guy.

What’s more, a subscription model when people move only occasionally doesn’t make much sense. Why would you pay for a subscription to something you use only once every 5 years, for example?

I’m actually amazed how spot on the first two VC’s were.

I like the mix of VC’s: Mr. Friendly (VC1), Mr. Just the Facts (VC2), and Mr. Abrasive (VC3). It mirrors real life.

I found VC2 to be the most helpful. His suggestions made a lot of sense and could help me refine the business model.

As an investor, I try to be closest to VC2. I mostly ask questions and don’t offer too many judgements, positive or negative.

I am mostly there to learn, not to direct the founder.

What do you think the robot VC’s got right? What did they get wrong?

Leave a comment at the bottom and let me know!

More on tech:

Where Are All the Startup Acquisitions?

Mark Twain: Venture Capitalist

The Power Law (Part One)

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If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

Misfits Market

I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

Photo: “Robot at the British Library Science Fiction Exhibition” by BadgerGravling is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.

Machine Learning Engine Predicts 20% Rally in AMC in Next Month

I came across a fascinating little tool today. It’s a machine learning program designed to forecast returns in stocks.

It’s called the Trefis AI Engine and it draws from 8 years of past stock returns.

Given the intense interest in stock of AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc., I had to see what the oracle would say.

AMC is up 34% in the last month. Based on past scenarios, what does the next month have in store?

The machine learning engine predicts a 20% return over the next month in this scenario.

Machine learning is a series of algorithms that can be used to identify patterns and make predictions. It powers Google search, Netflix recommendations, and even self driving cars.

Will the genie be right? I honestly don’t know. But I find the tool an interesting thing to play with.

Type in some scenarios of your own and let me know what you find in the comments at the very bottom of the page!

Kudos to Forbes for the tip.

More on AMC:

New Data: AMC Fails to Deliver Down 85%

What a Hedge Fund King Fears Most

For Retail Traders, AMC Has Become the Only Meme Stock

Photo: “DSC_0274” by oblomberg is licensed under CC BY-NC 2.0

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Save Money on Stuff I Use:

Amazon Business American Express Card

You already shop on Amazon. Why not save $100?

If you’re approved for this card, you get a $100 Amazon gift card. You also get up to 5% back on Amazon and Whole Foods purchases, 2% on restaurants/gas stations/cell phone bills, and 1% everywhere else.

Best of all: No fee!

Fundrise

This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 and returns have been good so far. More on Fundrise in this post.

If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get your management fees waived for 90 days. With their 1% management fee, this could save you $250 on a $100,000 account.

iHerb

The only place I buy vitamins and supplements. I recently placed an order and received it in less than 48 hours with free shipping! I compared the prices and they were lower than Amazon. I also love how they test a lot of the vitamins so that you know you’re getting what the label says. This isn’t always the case with supplements.

Use this link to save 5%! 

Misfits Market

My wife and I have gotten organic produce shipped to our house by Misfits for over a year. It’s never once disappointed me. Every fruit and vegetable is super fresh and packed with flavor. I thought radishes were cold, tasteless little lumps at salad bars until I tried theirs! They’re peppery, colorful and crunchy! I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $10 on your first order.