Robots | Tremendous

Sounds crazy, right? But doubling our population is the goal of one of the hottest new startups, Figure. The catch: half will be robots.

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Figure emerged from stealth yesterday, unveiling a humanoid robot. It plans to build one for every person on earth, doubling our productive capacity.

💫 WE’RE LIVE 💫

Today, Figure emerges from stealth.

We’re building autonomous humanoid robots.

One robot for every human on the planet.

Here's what the future will look like: pic.twitter.com/McEXbHtRpo
— Brett Adcock (@adcock_brett) March 2, 2023

Figure is addressing a very real problem: slowing population growth. Worldwide human population is expected to peak in 2100.

Some countries are already shrinking, including China and much of Western Europe. For countries like Japan and Russia, deaths outnumber births by 2:1 or more.

But whether population is rising or falling, jobs must be done. For many countries, the solution may be robots.

Figure’s robot mimics a small human. It’s 5’6”, 132 pounds and walks about the same speed we do. Being shaped like a human lets it operate smoothly in an environment built for mankind.

Is this creepy?

Yeah kinda. But unless humans decide to have more babies, it’s hard to see an alternative.

In the near term, human workers (just the need to specify tells us something) are likely to view Figure as a threat. Indeed, Figure aims to drastically cut labor costs.

From the company’s website:

Today, manual labor compensation is the primary driver of goods and services prices, accounting for ~50% of global GDP (~$42 trillion/yr), but as these robots “join the workforce,” everywhere from factories to farmland, the cost of labor will decrease until it becomes equivalent to the price of renting a robot, facilitating a long-term, holistic reduction in costs.

This means much lower wages for manual laborers.

But I’m optimistic that humans will find safer, more creative and better paid work. After all, YouTubers and yoga instructors barely existed 10 years ago.

Regardless of desirability, making 8 billion of anything is incredibly hard.

Let’s take another big, complicated product: cars. Global automobile production is only about 80 million per year — just one percent of the number of robots Figure hopes to build.

Whether Figure succeeds or not, I’m certain about one thing. VC’s are going to eat this up. I can practically hear the armored cars pulling up in front of Figure HQ now, ready to dispense billions.

There’s no down market for stuff like this. It’s a giant opportunity and involves the current hot thing, AI.

I just wish I had a slice!

Do you think Figure’s robots are creepy, awesome, or creepy and awesome?

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A robotic arm carefully grips the cup as frothy milk cascades onto smooth espresso. It gently places the cup before you.

Coffee is served.

I’m a little obsessed with coffee. I have five coffee makers at home, each for a different style.

But if the next generation of robotics companies has their way, they might all be replaced by a skillful droid.

Founded in 2015, Cafe X makes full-service robocafes that can be found at San Francisco International Airport and elsewhere. Today, they are only sold to commercial customers, but can the home version be far away?

Cafe X’s intelligent robots can make a drink in as little as 20 seconds. It can even make multiple drinks at once!

Best of all, the price is less than half what Starbucks charges.

CEO Henry Hu was inspired by the robotic arms that build automobiles.

A simpler coffee machine could make drinks, but the robotic arm is much more versatile. It can also serve snacks or even be used in restaurants.

The pandemic hit Cafe X hard, but it’s back in service in SFO, Dubai and elsewhere.

The machines cost about $200,000. A quick Indeed search shows most barista positions in the NYC area paying between $13 and $30 per hour.

If the average is even $20 per hour, and a human-staffed store is open perhaps 90 hours a week, it costs $93,600 to staff the store with even one barista for a year.

In an ever tighter labor market, once employers go bot, they may never go back.

Cafe X isn’t the only company bringing Star Wars to Starbucks. In Nashville, Panera Bread is rolling out coffee robots from Miso Robotics.

Unlike Cafe X, Miso’s robot is barely noticeable. It discreetly monitors temperature and time to ensure a perfect brew, but there’s no robotic arm to whisk the drink to you.

The system is designed to assist workers, not replace them.

Miso Robotics also makes Chippy, which fries tortilla chips at Chipotle, and Flippy, which flips burgers for White Castle.

In a white hot labor market, these robots may not cause unemployment. But my concerns about restaurant automation run deeper.

When I go to a cafe, I sometimes chat with the barista and have a little laugh. In a world of sensors and robotic arms, I’ll have no one to talk to.

Those little interactions aren’t the substance of our social life, but they can be enjoyable sprinkles on the top.

Cafe X’s robot amazes me and manages to be cute to boot. But I find a world without anyone to share a brief chuckle with a melancholy one.

Would you try a robocoffee? And what do you think about the future of restaurant automation?

Leave a comment at the bottom and let me know!

Tremendous

Tag Archives: Robots

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An angel investor's take on life and business