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Business

Is Billionaire Carl Icahn Facing Disaster? Ackman Says Yes.

May 25, 2023 tremendousblog Leave a comment

Things are going from bad to worse for hedge fund billionaire Carl Icahn. Icahn Enterprises stock is down over 20% today after prominent fund manager Bill Ackman predicted disaster for the firm.

In a lengthy tweet yesterday, Ackman outlines a nightmare scenario for the stock:

I have been fascinated by the @HindenburgRes $IEP situation, and there are some interesting learnings here. For example, one learns from $IEP that a controlling shareholder of a company with a small float that pays a large dividend can cause his company to trade at a large…
— Bill Ackman (@BillAckman) May 24, 2023

Icahn owns 85% of the stock in Icahn Enterprises, per Bloomberg. Most of it is pledged as collateral for margin loans — as much as 65%, per Ackman’s estimate.

Meanwhile, nearly all of Icahn’s net worth is tied up in Icahn Enterprises stock.

The stock is down over 60% since a Hindenburg Research report at the beginning of the month called the company “Ponzi-like.” Now, the Justice Department is investigating Icahn Enterprises.

Icahn’s margin lenders must be getting nervous, as Ackman points out. Wouldn’t you be?

If even one of them calls Icahn’s loan, he could be forced to sell large blocks of stock. Since he owns 85% of the float, that would cause Icahn Enterprises stock to drop like a stone.

Icahn has taken huge losses in the weeks since the Hindenburg report. As I write this on Thursday afternoon, his losses likely approach $20 billion.

Ackman and Icahn have a feud that goes back twenty years. But Ackman’s criticism of Icahn Enterprises is valid.

Issuing stock to pay a fat dividend makes no sense. Dividends are to be paid out of actual profits.

But since Icahn Enterprises doesn’t have any of those, this is how they attract shareholders.

Now that Ackman is piling on, I expect more hedge funds to short IEP stock. This selling pressure could push the stock down enough for Icahn’s margin calls to start.

I don’t see how Icahn comes back from this unless the businesses Icahn Enterprises owns start making some money.

He doesn’t appear to have enough spare capital to buy more IEP stock and push it up further. And with the stock under so much pressure, I doubt anyone else is buying.

We could be looking at one of the biggest flameouts in Wall Street history. Unless the 87 year old Icahn has one more trick up his sleeve…

Do you think Icahn will go bust? Leave a comment and let us know?

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Carl Icahn Losing $900 Million a Day

Druck on the Coming Debt Crisis

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Business

Carl Icahn Losing $900 Million a Day

May 23, 2023 tremendousblog 2 Comments

Corporate raider Carl Icahn has lost $15 billion since the release of an exposé by Hindenburg Research. That’s over $900 million a day.

The Hindenburg Report

Hindenburg claims that Icahn’s holding company, Icahn Enterprises, is structured like a Ponzi scheme. Repeated share sales support an unusually high 28% dividend.

In brief, Icahn has been using money taken in from new investors to pay out dividends to old investors. Such ponzi-like economic structures are sustainable only to the extent that new money is willing to risk being the last one “holding the bag”.

Hindenburg also alleges that Icahn Enterprises inflates the values of its assets. Since the release of the report on May 2, the stock has fallen by nearly half in just 16 trading days, costing Icahn billions.

From Bloomberg:

“He’s never been humiliated like this,” says Mark Stevens, Icahn biographer and founder of consulting company MSCO.

A History of Losses

Icahn Enterprises stock has lagged for years, weighed down by huge losses. Again from Bloomberg:

It’s hard to argue about Icahn’s lackluster performance of late. This has been a lost decade for Icahn Enterprises stock. The price has fallen more than 60% over the past 10 years, while the S&P 500 has gained about 153%. Dividends have made up some of the difference: Icahn Enterprises has handed stockholders a total return of about 6%. But the S&P has returned roughly 206%.

Icahn made massive bets that a financial crisis was coming. When those short bets didn’t pan out, he lost billions.

Icahn Enterprises’ Future

Now, federal prosecutors are investigating Icahn Enterprises. So far, no charges have been filed.

I don’t know if Icahn acted improperly. But I do know that a 28% dividend isn’t sustainable.

This means you’re paying out the entire value of the company every 3.5 years. This would be an incredible strain even for the most profitable companies.

For a business making big losses, it’s impossible.

I also disagree with Icahn’s bets on a financial crisis. Although crashes come and go, the long term trajectory of markets, technology, and humanity is upward.

Financial engineering and short bets can work — sometimes. But the better approach is to buy great businesses for the long term and bet on the future.

“Never bet against America.” – Warren Buffett
2021 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Letter

What do you think of Icahn’s huge loss? Leave a comment and let us know!

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Druck on the Coming Debt Crisis

‘There’s a Lot of Agony Out There’: Munger on CRE

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Business, Politics

Druck on the Coming Debt Crisis

May 17, 2023 tremendousblog 3 Comments

Stan Druckenmiller and George Soros made over $1 billion shorting the British pound. Now Druck is turning his sights to another mismanaged nation: the United States.

At a recent keynote address at USC, Druckenmiller sounded the alarm about ballooning entitlements.

“If I wasn’t so worried about the country I’d be salivating over the opportunities this could set up.”
Stanley Druckenmiller

Today, we spend 40% of our tax dollars on programs for seniors. By 2043, that will be 60%.

How do we pay for that? There are two main options: cut spending or raise taxes.

But the changes required would be huge.

Druckenmiller reckons we’d need to cut spending by 35% starting today and maintain that lower level forever. If we don’t want to do that, we could raise taxes 40% — permanently.

“Expect this trend to continue…absent radical policy changes.”
Stanley Druckenmiller

The last of the baby boomers retire soon. We’ve promised them benefits that will soon crowd out all other federal spending.

No defense, no education, no bridges, no nothing.

So how do we fix it?

Druckenmiller calls for big entitlement cuts. He supports ending payments to wealthier seniors and cutting cost of living adjustments (COLAs).

Means testing is a great place to start. People like me don’t need a government check.

And as painful as ending or reducing COLAs may be, it can happen anyway. State pensioners here in New Jersey haven’t had a COLA in 12 years, and the sky hasn’t fallen.

We must also raise eligibility ages. I see no problem with Social Security’s full benefit beginning at 75 (rather than 70) and Medicare at 70 (currently 65) for younger people like me.

I never expected to get a cent out of these programs anyway. Most young people don’t.

Reining in benefits is the one chance to salvage something for future retirees. If we don’t do something now, there will be nothing left for younger generations.

“You’re screwing seniors, you’re just screwing the future seniors. Why do they get a dollar and you get zero?”
Stanley Druckenmiller

I’m confident that we’ll muddle through to a solution. It will probably involve some combination of benefit cuts and tax increases.

“…if it can’t go on forever it will stop.”
Herbert Stein, economist

What do you think the future holds for entitlements and the US economy? Leave a comment and let us know!

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More on markets:

‘There’s a Lot of Agony Out There’: Munger on CRE

From $10 Billion to Zero — Late Stage Ice Age

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Business, Technology

Bard vs. GPT-4

May 15, 2023 tremendousblog 1 Comment

Last week, Google debuted its latest challenge to OpenAI: the new Bard. The waitlist is gone and Bard has some great new features. But can it beat GPT-4?

Today, I put both bots to the test.

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Bard now integrates with search and maps and can access the internet. So I tested it against its closest GPT-4 equivalent: Bing Chat.

Bing Chat uses GPT-4 and has internet access. It’s integrated into a search engine, just like Bard.

And unlike ChatGPT Plus, it’s free! (You have to use Microsoft Edge, but it’s a pretty good browser.)

I posed identical questions to each bot. These are real questions I actually need the answer to.

Let’s see how they do!

One of the main things I use GPT-4 for is help finding blog ideas. Again this morning, it performed well:

The stories are interesting and relevant. The links don’t work, but hey, it’s new technology right?

Now, let’s try Bard:

Bard refused my request entirely, outputting nothing.

GPT-4 has saved me hours in research time. But for this application, Bard seems useless.

I’m attending a demo day for Australian startups tomorrow. Maybe my new friends can help me prepare?

GPT-4’s answer was outstanding!

It told me things about Australia I never knew. I had no idea the culture was conservative.

It also gave me some ideas for questions.

Perhaps I should ask the startups about their international expansion plans. I rarely ask an American startup that since our domestic market is already vast.

Next, Bard’s turn:

Bard’s answer was good, but less complete than GPT-4’s.

It homed in on the risk of Australia’s small market. But it didn’t take the next logical step like GPT-4 and tell me to find out what a startup’s international expansion plan is.

Time for our third and final question.

I’m doing some research on the US meatpacking industry (long story). So I wondered, how many meatpackers are there in America?

Let’s ask GPT-4:

Excellent answer! It found an exact number and provided a source.

But it also called out something beyond the numbers. This is an unusual industry, with huge concentration.

GPT-4 made sure I’m aware of that. Nice work, GPT!

Let’s give Bard a shot:

Bard’s answer doesn’t seem accurate.

It gave a number only half the size of GPT-4’s. Maybe it’s valid, but without a citation, I’ll never know!

It did correctly call out the weird feature of meatpacking — massive concentration.

So far, Bard looks like a bust.

However, I’m sure Google will keep working on it. In time, it may catch up with GPT-4.

But for now, Microsoft and OpenAI have a heck of a headstart.

Have you tried Bard? If so, what did you think?

More on tech:

Inflection: Better than ChatGPT?

Woz Calls for AI Regulation

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Business, Life, Technology

Money You Can Afford to Lose

May 10, 2023 tremendousblog Leave a comment

Last night, I got a call from my old friend Matt. Matt had a problem. He had saved some money, but was terrified to invest it.

“What if I lose it?” he asked? So I explained to him the core concept behind all of my investments.

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The Money You Can Afford to Lose

In this great country, many of us are fortunate enough to have money we can afford to lose. We wouldn’t enjoy losing it, but life would go on.

That’s money we can use for riskier investments.

Why do we do this? Because greater risk often comes with greater rewards.

Francis the Speculator

Every day, I make some of the riskiest investments on earth. At night, I sleep like the dead.

A tech startup might be the most speculative investment you can make. At this early stage, a company is just a couple of people on laptops.

Assets? Nothing.

Collateral? Lol.

I expect 70% of my startups to go bust. The failure rate is higher than almost anything, except maybe crypto.

“Is that nerve-wracking?” people often ask.

Not at all. Because I know how much money I can afford to lose.

And I never bet more than that.

Startups are at the extreme end of the risk spectrum. An S&P 500 index fund is closer to the middle, and a better choice for Matt.

Money You Can’t Afford to Lose

We all need something to pay the bills, right?

That’s the money we can’t afford to lose. So we shouldn’t expose it to too much risk.

A good home for that money is a bank account or money market. You can make a little interest without worrying you’ll lose money.

Losses, Guaranteed!

Back to my buddy Matt.

“I’ll remove the mystery. You will absolutely lose money in stocks. I guarantee it,” I told him.

If you invest in any risky category long enough, you’ll take losses.

Thing is though, it tends to come back. And as humans innovate, prices reach ever higher.

Non-Attachment

I had one last thing for Matt.

It’s the concept of “non-attachment.” Called danshari in Japanese, it comes from Buddhism.

I try not to be attached to money.

I have certain assets now. But I might not always.

That money isn’t me. I’m me.

When I was younger, I didn’t have a dime. And I was still me.

So if I increase my assets, that’s great. But if they go away, I’ll still be Francis and I’ll be okay.

If we adopt a healthy attitude toward money, we become better investors.

We take a good bet when it’s available. And we don’t obsess about the potential for loss.

But something more important happens too. We become happier people.

How do you think about money? Leave a comment and let us know!

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Business

‘There’s a Lot of Agony Out There’: Munger on CRE

May 1, 2023 tremendousblog 3 Comments

“A lot of real estate isn’t so good any more,” Munger said. “We have a lot of troubled office buildings, a lot of troubled shopping centres, a lot of troubled other properties. There’s a lot of agony out there.”

Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chairman Charles Munger has truly seen it all. At age 99, he’s an astute observer of markets and remains Warren Buffett’s right hand man.

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So when he sat down for a rare interview with the Financial Times this weekend, I couldn’t miss it.

Munger notes that many US banks are holding bad loans on commercial property. Those properties are declining in value due to higher vacancies and interest rates.

Loans for commercial real estate aren’t like residential mortgages. Instead of being fixed for 30 years, they usually must be refinanced every 5-10 years.

Banks are increasingly wary of CRE loans. From the Munger interview:

He noted that banks were already pulling back from lending to commercial developers. “Every bank in the country is way tighter on real estate loans today than they were six months ago,” he said. “They all seem [to be] too much trouble.”

If the refinancing happens at all, it will be at a much higher rate. If the owner can’t pay the new, higher payments, he may default.

That leaves the bank holding the bag.

And if the owner tries to sell, he faces a tough market.

Sales of office space are down 66% in the past year. There are no buyers at any price for vacant office space in NYC, according to a broker friend of mine.

Berkshire is staying away from this tough market. So is little old Francis — my real estate investments are in higher end apartments and fulfillment centers.

What’s the future for CRE? Leave a comment and let us know what you think!

This is the last blog for this week. I’m heading down to Kentucky tomorrow to visit my grandma!

See you on Monday, May 8th!

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More on markets:

From $10 Billion to Zero — Late Stage Ice Age

Interest Rate Time Bomb May Kill Hedge Funds

To Riyadh, Hat in Hand

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Business, Technology

From $10 Billion to Zero — Late Stage Ice Age

April 26, 2023 tremendousblog 6 Comments

“…if you’re a Series C stage startup, you’re a late stage startup, with let’s call it a pre-AI model, the spigot is just turned off completely.”
David Sacks

The year was 2021, and late stage startups never had it so good.

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Tiger Global was ripping $100 million checks into everything in sight. Not wanting to be left behind, other big hedge funds dumped cash out of helicopters, buying everything in sight.

The bet: that buying into a startup that would IPO soon was a sure thing.

The price would go up in those last few years in the private markets. The hedge fund would take home princely gains, and all would be right with the world.

Cue that record scratch sound effect…

“The game done changed.”
“The game the same. Just got more fierce.”
The Wire

Funding for late stage startups no longer exists. Period.

Think I’m exaggerating? Look at this chart from Crunchbase:

Series C funding has dropped from $10 billion to effectively zero in April. OpenAI might be the only company that can actually raise.

Many of the biggest late stage investors are no longer investing. Period.

I haven’t seen Tiger in a late stage deal in a long time. Same goes for the other big funds.

In general, I see almost no late stage deals. What few I do see, may fail.

I hear that even if Tiger invested a fortune in your company, you cannot get them on the phone. Whoever led the investment may be gone.

I cannot verify that, and it may not be true, so take it with a grain of salt.

When I do see the big hedge funds in a deal today (rare), it’s always early stage. I think they’ll make the same mistakes there too.

But what about all that dry powder?

VC funds are sitting on billions they have raised but not deployed. Surely startups can grab a little of that, right?

Not so fast.

“This idea that there’s tons of dry powder sitting out there, I think is a myth. Or maybe it’s there but there’s no willingness to deploy it.”
David Sacks

The Limited Partners who put money into the VC fund may be telling it to pull back. Or maybe they’re not even meeting their commitments at all.

Get to breakeven and live to fight (and raise) another day. That’s the best choice for late stage companies today — and most early stage companies too!

You cannot count on fundraising right now. If you do count on it, you could quickly cease to exist.

For late stage companies making tens or hundreds of millions in revenue, getting to breakeven should be no problem. But many refuse to do it.

“What steps were taken to cut costs before you just went to the investors to pony up more money?
David Sacks

That’s the question every investor is asking!

I don’t do late stage. But when one of my companies isn’t meeting targets and is running out of money, I want to know what they did to cut burn.

If they didn’t do enough, I question the founder’s leadership. And I close the checkbook.

“Management has told you they’re incapable of running this business, this concern, in a thoughtful way.”
Jason Calacanis

Or in other words, this company is going to be a 0 anyway. No sense putting more money in.

Sound harsh? Yeah, it is.

So’s business, sometimes.

What do you think of today’s funding market? Leave a comment and let us know!

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More on tech:

Down Rounds Everywhere

From Seed to $10M ARR

VC Whiners

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Business, Technology

Down Rounds Everywhere

April 24, 2023 tremendousblog 2 Comments

“It’s an absolute bloodbath.”
Cameron Lester, Jefferies.

Down rounds in unicorn startups are everywhere in today’s funding crunch. Should we be worried?

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From a report out this morning in Bloomberg:

Toward the end of 2022, down rounds hit near five-year highs, according to research firm Prequin. And early data for the first quarter shows roughly 7.5% of all venture funding rounds in US were down rounds, according to PitchBook — a number it expects will climb. High-profile companies like financial giant Stripe Inc., Swedish payments startup Klarna Bank AB and security firm Snyk have already taken valuation cuts, and others like Blockchain.com are said to be in talks to do the same.

Down rounds feel rotten.

You’re no longer uppy and to the righty. Founders and employees could lose millions in paper gains. Investors’ performance takes a hit.

Sounds scary right? Well, it’s about to get worse:

“We expect down rounds, especially toward the second half of this year, to really pick up,” said PitchBook analyst Kyle Stanford.

Many advise companies that a down round is better than no round, and they should take the money at whatever terms available.

I disagree.

Big, late-stage startups could reach profitability. Then, they have no need to raise. If they choose to do so, it will be on their own terms.

But that’s hard!

Sure it is. No one enjoys layoffs.

Okay, maybe Mark Zuckerberg.

But if a billion dollar business cannot stop losing money, is it a viable business? How could a company supposedly be worth so much but completely unable to turn a profit, even of $1?

Reaching profitability is a great exercise for any business. If your gross margins are negative, you’ll find out in a hurry.

Finding out your business isn’t viable is hard. But at least you know.

Then, you have a chance to retool it before it’s too late.

You also have a chance to grow into an enduring, highly profitable public company. That’s our goal — right?

Perhaps not.

For too many startups during the bull market, fundraising became an end in itself. They forgot about building a viable business because they didn’t need to!

After all, there was always another round coming.

Those days are over. And good riddance.

But we investors can’t blame founders. We enabled them, every step of the way.

The past is the past. What matters today is to build and fund viable businesses that become major, enduring companies.

Anything else is noise.

How do you view down rounds? Leave a comment and let us know!

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From Seed to $10M ARR

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VC Whiners

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Meet My Latest Investment: TANGObuilder

To Riyadh, Hat in Hand

April 13, 2023 tremendousblog 3 Comments

“We came to San Francisco looking for them in 2017. Now . . . everyone is coming to [us].”
Ibrahim Ajami, Mubadala Investment Company (Abu Dhabi’s $284 billion sovereign wealth fund)

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Every hour on the hour, a private jet filled with men in Patagonia vests is landing in the Middle East. What do they want?

What does everyone want? Money.

From a new report in the Financial Times:

Top technology VCs such as Andreessen Horowitz, Tiger Global and IVP have jetted teams of executives to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar in recent weeks, according to people with knowledge of the trips.

These visits come after their traditional North American and European backers contend with an economic downturn that has forced them to rein in private investments.

Here’s what’s going on.

VC’s usual investors are US pensions and endowments. Those guys aren’t investing right now.

Pensions and endowments allocate a certain percentage of their money to venture capital. A typical allocation might be 15%.

But the rest of their portfolio, especially stocks, has been hammered in the past year. Since venture investments aren’t priced daily, those appear to have held up better.

What happens when your stocks are in the toilet and your VC funds haven’t taken big markdowns? That 15% venture allocation has ballooned to 20%, 25%, or more.

So, want to put more money in venture? Yeah, didn’t think so. You’re already overexposed.

But on the other side of the table, VC’s have spent a lot of their funds. They invested rapidly in 2021, and need to raise again so they have something to deploy.

If their normal investors (also known as LP’s) are out, who else is there? Who else has a giant pot of money?

The oil rich nations of the Middle East.

The Middle East is the only game in town for the big VC’s. And the folks in Saudi Arabia and the UAE — they know it.

Now is a great time for them to get huge allocations in the finest funds. They should seize it.

But should the funds take their money?

Some governments in the Middle East have a poor human rights record. If it were me, I would never accept a dime from any authoritarian government, anywhere on Earth.

I just don’t agree with their actions. And frankly, I didn’t need money when I started this business.

However, there’s no reason to paint all of the Gulf with the same broad brush. Some countries are more forward thinking than others.

If a government displays a commitment to treating its people with respect, we should be happy to do business with them.

For smaller funds, the picture gets even more interesting.

Governments aren’t the only ones in the Middle East interested in tech. There are also many wealthy individuals who want a piece of the future.

If that person is honorable, I welcome the opportunity to do business with them, wherever they live.

What do you think of tech in the Middle East? Leave a comment and let us know!

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