Tag Archives: China

NYC’s Best Dumplings at Shu Jiao Fu Zhou

May 16, 2023 tremendousblog Leave a comment

It was lunchtime on the set, and I knew exactly where I was headed. It was time to eat the best dumpling in New York.

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This is Shu Jiao Fu Zhou, an institution in Manhattan’s Chinatown. This simple storefront serves tender dumplings, rich noodles and more.

I hadn’t been since before Covid. So it was time to go all-in.

I ordered the pork dumplings and a big plate of peanut noodles. Double or nothing!

Watching the people stream by the plate glass windows is fascinating. Some are making deliveries, others doing their shopping, and a few even visiting from far away.

“I don’t get down here enough,” I thought.

“Dumpling and peanut noodles!”

But this was no time to be lost in thought! My food was ready!

I plopped back down at the formica table, ready to experience the best of Fujian. But first, a little dark vinegar…

I bit into a dumpling, penetrating the smooth skin and reaching the unctuous pork within. Outstanding.

On to my noodles. I grabbed a big helping with my chopsticks, lifting them up to admire their glistening steaminess.

Down the hatch they go. Ahh…the creamy fat of the peanut butter with the chewiness of the wheat noodle is the ideal combination.

Peanut butter on noodles might sound a little unusual if you haven’t had it before. But trust me, these Fujianese folks figured something out!

I washed it all down with an ice cold Diet Coke. Hey, they have Coke in China too, right?

Resolving to never let so many years pass between visits, I sallied out into the sunny midday. Strolling past stands bursting with green vegetables and fresh fish, I found a lively basketball court.

I grabbed a bench and watched the men play. They yelled plays to each other excitedly, broad smiles on their faces.

This was the real life we missed for far too long during Covid. Now it’s back, and I appreciate it even more.

Shu Jiao Fu Zhou is open 7 days a week, from 8:30am to 8pm. In an ever more expensive city, its dishes are shockingly affordable — often under $5.

Give it a shot!

And if you can’t make it to New York, you can try making Fujianese peanut noodles at home. This might be my next little project!

What are your favorite Chinese restaurants? Leave a comment and let us know.

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Business, Technology

Sequoia Cutting Back on China Investments

February 24, 2023 tremendousblog 1 Comment

No US venture firm is bigger in China than Sequoia Capital. But as tensions rise, even Sequoia is pulling back.

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From a report out this morning in The Wall Street Journal:

Sequoia Capital has started screening some investments its China arm is considering in technology companies there for U.S. national-security concerns, according to people familiar with the matter, as Washington steps up efforts to stop American money from funding China’s development of sensitive technologies.

Sequoia doubled down on China as recently as last year, raising a record $8.5 billion to invest there. But now, the firm is pulling back:

Between 2021 and 2022, Sequoia China made at least 20 investments in Chinese semiconductor and related companies. Since the screening process was implemented in the autumn of 2022, the firm hasn’t made any investments in Chinese semiconductor or quantum-computing startups from its new funds, which were raised in July 2022.

As dominant as Sequoia is in America, it’s even bigger in China. The firm has a piece of almost every major Chinese tech company, from Bytedance to JD to Meituan.

Even as Sequoia faces scrutiny from US regulators, China may also crack down on its investments. After all, does an increasingly nationalist CCP want foreigners owning some of China’s most important technology?

Personally, I never invest in China. The country lacks the rule of law.

This means no matter how well I do, the government can come and take it all away in an instant.

Don’t believe me? Consider the sudden ban of education tech companies, driving their stocks to near zero overnight.

It’s unwise for US investors to put money in China. But there are advantages for the US government in letting it happen.

Major investors like Sequoia usually have information rights and a board seat. They’re privy to tons of confidential information about a company.

Having that information in the hands of a US firm could serve our strategic interests.

In all, I think China’s tech sector is toast. Top entrepreneurs are leaving and investors are spooked by a Communist government run amok.

There are plenty of other promising markets out there.

Would you invest in China? Why or why not?

Have a great weekend everyone!

More on tech:

Where Is Bao Fan?

I See Negative Gross Margin Businesses

Top VC Firms Have Great Returns…Right?

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Business, Politics, Technology

Where Is Bao Fan?

February 22, 2023 tremendousblog Leave a comment

Bao Fan did everything right. Despite being one of China’s top tech investors, Bao kept a low profile and hewed to the Communist Party line. Then, he disappeared.

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From an article out this morning in The New York Times:

…on Valentine’s Day last week, rumors started circulating that Mr. Bao had gone missing. His company later confirmed his disappearance in a regulatory filing.

China’s tech world is watching closely what will happen to Mr. Bao, who knows or has worked with nearly every mover and shaker in the industry. He is not as well known outside the business world but is just as symbolic of the industry’s rising presence in China as Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba, who has largely vanished from public view after falling out with the government in 2020.

There’s no one quite like Bao Fan in the United States. Half investment banker, half venture capitalist, Bao was intimately involved in almost every major Chinese tech company.

He brought together warring startups to create giants like Didi and Meituan. Bao prospered, and so did the companies he helped.

His influence reached so far that people said, “If you don’t know Bao Fan, you haven’t made it.”

But new Chinese leaders took a darker view of Bao’s success.

The government began investigating one of his top lieutenants, Cong Lin. China’s government has implied that Bao is assisting in that investigation.

But no one knows where Bao is. Or if he’s even alive.

Clearly, Bao could’ve helped an investigation while retaining his post. It’s more likely he’s being abused and intimidated and as an example to others.

Indeed, China’s tech industry is watching closely:

A tech founder who had worked with Mr. Bao on deals wrote on social media that entrepreneurs were like “frightened birds.” “Confidence is slow to build but quick to dissipate,” he wrote. “Without confidence, who will build factories, start companies and invest in the future?”

Many Chinese entrepreneurs are quietly leaving the country with their millions.

More and more, you will see rich business owners leaving China, along with ambitious young people. Why spend a lifetime building a business if the government can just take it away?

Dictatorship is the ultimate single point of failure. One bad man in the wrong spot, and your country goes down in flames.

Xi is that man. But the Communist system is what gives him the power he has.

From an interview in The Japan Times:

“This is part of the evolution of the Communist Party,” said Drew Thompson, a visiting research scholar at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore. “Private entrepreneurs — high-profile, wealthy people — are increasingly incompatible with ‘common prosperity’ and the direction that Xi Jinping has taken.”

What do you think the future holds for Chinese tech? Leave a comment and let me know!

More on tech:

Top VC Firms Have Great Returns…Right?

Google is Losing the AI Race

Consumer Startups: What Works and What Doesn’t

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Business, Technology

VC’s Sour on China — Funding Down 44%

November 3, 2022 tremendousblog 4 Comments

Venture funds are giving up on China. Funding has fallen 44% this year amid a government crackdown on tech.

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From a report out overnight in Bloomberg:

Venture capital investments in China are falling sharply this year, making it one of the worst-performing countries globally after the Communist Party’s crackdown and an overall decline in tech valuations.

The value of venture capital deals in the country tumbled 44% to $62.1 billion through October, compared with the same period in 2021, according to research firm Preqin.

…China is among the worst performers, with a venture investment drop that is worse than the global decline and the pullback in the US.

The US has fared considerably better than China. Venture funding is down just 27% in the first three quarters compared to the same period in 2021, according to CB Insights.

The Communist party has cracked down on numerous Chinese tech companies. This has crushed the stocks of companies like Alibaba and DiDi Global.

As if that wasn’t enough, neverending Covid lockdowns have taken a toll on the economy. From Bloomberg:

China’s venture landscape has been aggravated by the Communist Party’s harsh Covid Zero policy. Lockdowns in cities like Shanghai and Zhengzhou have hampered all manner of business, from advertising and investments to the production of Tesla Inc. automobiles and Apple Inc. iPhones.

Some VC’s are hiding out in semiconductors. The government currently favors the industry as a strategic priority.

That’s all well and good until Xi Jinping decides foreigners shouldn’t own assets critical for national security. Then, venture fund go bye-bye.

Investors getting involved with China are playing with fire. It is a brutal dictatorship with no respect for human rights or the rule of law.

We should invest in places like the US, Europe and Japan. Democracies that take property rights seriously are a much better place to do business.

Would you invest in China? Leave a comment at the bottom and let me know!

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Business, Technology

Top Executives of China’s State Semiconductor Fund Arrested

August 8, 2022 tremendousblog 1 Comment

A major state-backed investment fund in China is in shambles as several top executives have been arrested. From the MIT Technology Review:

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China’s chipmaking industry descended into chaos last week, with at least four top executives associated with a state-owned semiconductor fund arrested on corruption charges. It’s an explosive turn of events that could force the country to fundamentally rethink how it invests in chip development, according to analysts and experts.

On July 30, China’s top anticorruption institution announced that Ding Wenwu, the chief executive of the China Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund, nicknamed the “Big Fund,” had been arrested for “suspected serious violations of the law.” Ding is not the only person in trouble. Two weeks ago, Lu Jun, a former executive at the Big Fund’s management institution, was also taken into custody, along with two other fund managers, according to the Chinese news outlet Caixin.

‘Made in China’

Let’s back up a bit. In 2014, China’s government created the China Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund (CICF) to invest in domestic chip making. Becoming self-sufficient in these critical components is a top priority of the Communist Party.

At that time, China could only make about 10% of the chips it needed. Its goal was to get to 70% by 2025.

The fund made over $30 billion in investments, with $20 billion more planned. But those investments have started to go sour.

The ‘Big Fund’ Takes Big Losses

One of its biggest investments, Tsinghua Unigroup, went bankrupt last year. Unigroup executives are under investigation and CICF’s $2 billion investment is likely up in smoke.

Riven by bad bets and likely self-dealing, CICF has failed to make China self-sufficient in chips. Today, China can only make about 20 or 30% of the chips it needs — well below target.

A Critical Moment

For China, being able to make semiconductors has never been more important. The US and its allies Taiwan, Korea and the Netherlands make virtually all the chips China imports.

The Trump Administration cut major Chinese telecom Huawei off from critical tech in 2019. Now, the US is pressuring Dutch chipmaker ASML not to sell certain chipmaking machines to China.

China is dependent on chip imports and cut off from the latest tech. Its efforts to develop its own industry have been mired in incompetence and corruption.

China’s Missed Opportunity

What should China have done differently?

Rather than giving government bureaucrats a mountain of state money to invest, use real investors!

With the right tax breaks, chipmakers and technology investors would’ve been eager to set up Chinese fabs. Perhaps TSMC would’ve built more plants in China and China would already be self-sufficient.

The Empire Strikes Back

Turns out another country is doing exactly this: the United States.

The recently passed CHIPS Act offers huge tax breaks for making semiconductors in America. Already, Intel, Samsung, and TSMC are setting up plants.

Worse yet for China, the CHIPS act bars companies that get those incentives from investing in cutting edge chipmaking in China.

I don’t think China will succeed in creating a major domestic semiconductor industry any time soon.

Its poor relations with other countries cut it off from foreign help. And China’s politicized investment climate results in little besides bankruptcies and prosecutions.

As much as we Americans complain about our government, turns out they’re actually doing a few things right.

What do you think the future holds for Chinese tech? Leave a comment at the bottom and let me know.

More on Fundrise in this post.

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Business, Politics

Chinese Stop Paying Mortgages as Real Estate Crisis Spreads

July 28, 2022 tremendousblog Leave a comment

Chinese homebuyers are refusing to pay their mortgages in a boycott that’s spreading across the country. Many fear the homes they’re paying for will never be finished.

Now, suppliers to builders are also defaulting on loans.

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From ABC News Australia:

A fast-growing mortgage boycott across dozens of cities in China has prompted some property suppliers to cease their bank loan repayments, raising fears the escalating situation could trigger a further downward spiral in the sector and even threaten the country’s financial stability.

Hundreds of landscapers, sculpture-makers and construction companies have expressed their anger that they have been bled dry because some debt-saddled developers did not pay their bills while they continued to service or help build apartments, Chinese media Caixin reported.

Chinese usually buy homes and start making payments before they’re complete.

The boycott has spread to 90 cities in mere weeks.

The Chinese government is censoring reports on the boycott, per Bloomberg. So the situation inside China may be even worse than reported.

A real estate meltdown is a catastrophe for the average Chinese saver. Chinese put 70% of their wealth in real estate, compared to 35% in the US.

The property sector accounts for about 25% of GDP. China’s GDP growth has flatlined as the sector sputters.

And it gets worse. Chinese banks have lent huge sums to property developers.

As developers default, bank runs are spreading across China. Government thugs have beaten protesters desperately trying to recover their life’s savings.

Amid a bleak economy and constant COVID lockdowns, workers are struggling. Youth unemployment has spiked, hitting over 19% last month.

Consider the picture for the average Chinese person: most of your savings are tied up in an apartment that will never be completed, the rest is in a bank that’s insolvent, and your only child can’t find work.

Revolution might start to sound good.

In the US, we know that a property crisis fueled by heavy debt can spread quickly. Huge liabilities pop up at different institutions unpredictably.

This undermines confidence in the entire financial system. When that happens, you get a financial crisis.

That’s what China is facing today.

At stake is the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party. Officials have staked their power on offering ever-increasing living standards.

Those days may be over.

I can only hope that Chinese citizens prevail and oust a government that has brutalized them for generations.

More on Fundrise in this post.

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Photo: Unfinished Chinese apartment buildings being demolished in Kunming, China

Business, Technology

Twilight of the Quick Delivery Startups

July 18, 2022 tremendousblog 3 Comments

Another quick delivery startup is struggling to keep its doors open. Beijing-based Missfresh is fighting huge losses and accounting irregularities.

From a report that broke this weekend in the Financial Times:

Tiger Global-backed grocery delivery start-up Missfresh is fighting to survive as it shuts operations across China, wallows in an accounting scandal and searches for capital to sustain its business.
The upheaval marks a stark turn of fortunes for Missfresh, which pulled in more than $1bn in financing from investors such as Tiger Global and Goldman Sachs and gained a $3bn valuation in New York one year ago. Its market value has now sunk to $88mn.

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Like Gopuff, Gorillas and others, Missfresh opened warehouses of goods across cities. It promised deliveries in 30 minutes or less.

But it’s losing massive sums of money. In fact, management isn’t even sure how bad the losses are:

While Missfresh has been unable to issue audited financials or its annual report for the year to December 31, the company estimated losses last year hit Rmb3.7bn.

Missfresh isn’t the only quick delivery startup getting hammered.

Fridge No More and Buyk both shut down this spring. JOKR exited the US market and Gorillas has done huge layoffs.

Quick delivery is a notoriously difficult business. The costs of opening dark stores, acquiring customers, and paying delivery staff are staggering.

Meanwhile, the competitive market pushes companies to slash prices. The result: terrible margins.

When a startup like Missfresh charges ahead with growth at all costs, the results aren’t pretty. Even massive revenue growth doesn’t matter if the business can never make money.

Remember the old joke:

“We lose money on every sale, but we make it up in volume.”

As an angel investor, I avoid businesses like this.

Quick delivery startups are messy and hard to scale. Meanwhile, high costs and stiff competition mean razor thin margins.

I prefer a pure software business. They’re easier to scale and far more profitable.

For a quick delivery business to succeed, it must have a laser focus on unit economics. Each additional delivery must be profitable.

Otherwise, the company can never make money no matter how many deliveries it does.

Gopuff, the most successful quick delivery company in the US, is laser focused on margins.

Its gross margins, or profit on each additional delivery, are estimated at nearly 50%. That’s significantly higher than Uber’s.

The death of one quick delivery startup after another is great for Gopuff. It removes their competitors!

The carnage in this sector makes me even more attentive to unit economics in my investments. There’s no sense throwing money at business models that just don’t work.

What do you think is the future for quick delivery? Leave a comment at the bottom and let me know!

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I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

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Business, Politics

Mass Protests in China as Bank Runs Continue

July 12, 2022 tremendousblog 2 Comments

Major news out of China as over 1,000 protestors in Zhengzhou demanded their savings back:

This is huge. Don't know how this will end. Henan bank is NOT the only one that is having problems with liquidity. All four Chinese banks are having the same issue. Some depositors found they can save and can NOT withdraw money with their bank cards. #bankrun #China #CCP pic.twitter.com/5WYYgpmIWP
— Jennifer Zeng 曾錚 (@jenniferatntd) July 10, 2022

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There are runs on several Chinese banks. The depositors, desperate not to lose their life’s savings, are taking great risk to speak out.

From the Indian Express:

In a rare large protest in China, over one thousand angry bank depositors, who have been protesting for access to their frozen funds, faced off with the police in Henan province leading to a violent clampdown Sunday.
Depositors of four rural banks in this central province have not been able to withdraw their funds since April. Sporadic protests have been going on since May.

Many smaller Chinese banks promised high interest rates to attract deposits. They advertised those rates on platforms run by Chinese tech giants like Baidu and JD.

Now, these small banks are finding themselves unable to pay those high rates. Worse yet, some banks have been infiltrated by criminals who are siphoning money out:

In the present case it is being alleged that these banks attracted deposits by offering attractive terms and high interest rates. A report in the South China Morning Post in May said that while Bank of China offers 2.75% a year interest on five-year deposits, the found banks in question were giving around 4.5% a year on their deposit products through third-party platforms.
Also, a statement by the Henan police on July 10 said that a criminal group had gradually taken control of several rural banks and was moving out funds.

Behind the peril facing Chinese banks is a weak economy. Intense COVID lockdowns this year have hammered economic activity.

An overheated property market is also crumbling. This has triggered defaults at major property developers, including Evergrande.

Something interesting happens when people see depositors struggling to get their money out. They start wondering about their own bank.

This is how a contagion could spread through the Chinese banking system. Cue It’s a Wonderful Life, without the happy ending.

The Chinese government’s violent repression of small savers in Zhengzhou may be just the beginning.

China is in a sensitive period. The 20th Party Congress, enormously important to the Communist elite, happens in November.

At that meeting, Xi hopes to secure a third term in office and effectively become leader for life. He and his underlings are likely to repress any “disturbance” during this time.

Already, China’s massive surveillance apparatus is being turned on these small savers.

Zhengzhou protesters have had their “health codes” turned off. Without the green QR code on their phones, they can go nowhere and do nothing.

The health code system was created to stem COVID. Predictably, it’s now being turned against dissidents.

I’m not a particularly religious man, but this Orwellian act reminded me of a passage from the Bible:

It forced all the people, small and great, rich and poor, free and slave, to be given a stamped image on their right hands or their foreheads,
so that no one could buy or sell except one who had the stamped image of the beast’s name or the number that stood for its name.
Revelation 13:16-17

I hope these decent, hardworking people will get their life’s savings back. I also hope we always resist this type of tyranny here at home.

What do you think is next in China? Leave a comment at the bottom and let me know.

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Business, Politics

Citadel Loans Supported Chinese Surveillance

April 7, 2022 tremendousblog Leave a comment

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Citadel made a major loan to a Chinese surveillance company in 2006. This shadowy company, which doesn’t even appear to have a website, has sold surveillance equipment to China’s Communist government.

From a new report from Crain’s Chicago Business:

…in 2006, Citadel loaned $110 million to China Security & Surveillance Technology. The company used the funds to acquire “10 of the 50 biggest surveillance companies in China.” That has opened it to charges that it “provid(ed) much of the surveillance infrastructure for the ruling Chinese Communist Party, including technology used to alert police of possible unsanctioned protests and internet cafes to track down democracy advocates and dissidents.”

Citadel CEO Ken Griffin doesn’t seem to find the loan problematic, according to a statement he released:

“In 2006, China Security & Surveillance Technology—a company listed on the New York Stock Exchange—was raising further capital to pursue growth opportunities. CS&ST was hoping to be selected as a key partner in providing security capabilities for the 2008 Beijing Summer Olympics and the 2010 Shanghai World’s Fair to ensure those events would be safe for everyone.

So what does this company do? It appears to have gone private since Citadel’s loan, but here’s how the company described itself in an SEC annual report it filed while a public company:

We are primarily engaged, through our indirect Chinese subsidiaries, in the manufacturing, distributing, installing and servicing of surveillance and safety products, systems and services, and developing surveillance and safety related software primarily for governmental entities and their affiliates, non-profit organizations, and commercial entities in China.

In other words, the company sells surveillance gear to the Chinese government, among others. Citadel’s involvement with this business is concerning, given China’s oppressive surveillance of its population.

Ethnic and religious minorities such as Uyghur Muslims are particularly hard hit. From The Guardian:

The US has accused China of committing genocide and crimes against humanity for running a mass detention, repression and sterilization campaign against Uyghurs and other mostly Muslim ethnic minorities. Countless reports have detailed detainees enduring torture, coerced abortions as well as re-education in what former secretary of state Mike Pompeo described as the “forced assimilation and eventual erasure” of Uyghurs by the Chinese government.

The surveillance system propped up by these often global companies serves to facilitate that genocide, argues Dolkun Isaa, president of the World Uyghur Congress advocacy group.

“The goal of these surveillance tactics is not only to instill fear in Uyghurs’ minds that every aspect of their behavior is monitored, but most importantly to single out Uyghurs for detention in the internment camp system,” Isaa said.

Griffin may be right that China Security & Surveillance Technology bid on an Olympic contract. But it appears that he and his company didn’t ask any questions about what else the company does.

Citadel’s “make money now, ask questions later” attitude has also made it a target of a federal investigation here in the US.

I only hope someone holds this company accountable.

More on markets:

Citadel Under Federal Investigation

Mass Firings at Citadel Right Before Federal Probe

NYSE Investigating Shopify Stock Plunge; Citadel Involved

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Photo: Citadel LLC CEO Kenneth Griffin

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Food, NYC Area

Our Man in Hunan

March 15, 2022 tremendousblog 1 Comment

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On a quiet block just south of bustling 42nd Street, my wife and I ducked into a doorway and disappeared.

This isn’t a spy novel. But it is an incredible lunch.

Hunan Manor in midtown Manhattan serves outstanding Chinese food firmly rooted in the traditions of the motherland. You’ll find American dishes like an excellent General Tso’s, but also traditional recipes like scallion pancakes.

We sat down today in the surprisingly spacious dining room and within minutes, our waiter brought my wife’s spicy hot and sour soup and my enticing spring roll. Biting down with a satisfying crunch, I could tell this torpedo of flavor was freshly fried.

A few minutes of conversation later, out came the entrees. For the lady: ginger shredded beef with peppers. For me: Hunan style shrimp in a thick, piquant sauce.

The shrimp were cooked perfectly. Their texture was springy and yielding, unlike the little overcooked stones so many restaurants pass off as shrimp.

But the missus’ beef stole the show. The char on the thin strips of flesh, coupled with the perfume of ginger and tender peppers, made for a perfect dish.

I found myself wishing for tortillas to put the beef in, fajitas style. It’s interesting to see how different cultures approach similar ingredients and put their unique stamp on them.

We both ordered off the lunch combo menu, which I highly recommend. Everything is between $9.50 and $12.50, and that includes rice and either soup or a crispy spring roll.

You’d be hard pressed to find a better deal in town!

There will be no blog tomorrow. I have an acting gig. 🙂

See you Thursday!

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Misfits Market

My wife and I have gotten organic produce shipped to our house by Misfits for over a year. It’s never once disappointed me.

Every fruit and vegetable is super fresh and packed with flavor.

I thought radishes were cold, tasteless little lumps at salad bars until I tried theirs! They’re peppery, colorful and crunchy!

I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $10 on your first order.

Tremendous

Tag Archives: China

NYC’s Best Dumplings at Shu Jiao Fu Zhou

Sequoia Cutting Back on China Investments

Where Is Bao Fan?

VC’s Sour on China — Funding Down 44%

Top Executives of China’s State Semiconductor Fund Arrested

Chinese Stop Paying Mortgages as Real Estate Crisis Spreads

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Our Man in Hunan

An angel investor's take on life and business