Headlines scream “American decline.” Peter Thiel isn’t buying it. 

In a panel discussion in Japan this week, Thiel argues that on technology, demographics, and economic dynamism, the U.S. isn’t just holding on — it’s pulling away.

“On a relative basis, it seems to me that the U.S. is winning against the whole world.” Peter Thiel

America Makes, The World Takes

“… the technological future is still being built in the US.” – Peter Thiel

AI is producing much of the world’s economic growth. But AI tools are only built in a handful of places.

The United States is by far and away the leader. Every frontier model was built here. Almost every major technology company is based here. 

China is a strong competitor, producing capable models like Kimi and Qwen, and innovative robotics projects like Unitree. But outside the US and China, most countries are spectators in the AI race.

What important technology is being built in Germany, France, or Russia? France’s only significant AI company, Mistral, is dwarfed by Anthropic and OpenAI.

America’s Demographic Edge: More Babies, More Immigrants, More Growth

The U.S. fertility rate has slipped below replacement levels. But compared to many of our rivals, we’re producing babies at an incredible clip.

Our current fertility rate is 1.6, versus less than 1 for China. China is beginning to shrink rapidly even as our population still grows.

And what’s true of China is true of most major countries: Russia, Germany, England, all are producing far fewer children than the United States.  

We’re also able to grow our population through immigration.

China has no history of immigration. Their language is not spoken worldwide like English is, which makes it hard for immigrants to integrate.

Wrap-Up

America is growing and creating new technology at a pace no other country can match.

We have problems, to be sure. Our debt is heavy. Our politics are fraught.

Nonetheless, America is pulling away from the rest of the pack. If we continue to work hard and keep our markets and people free, we can prosper like never before. 

“… I am not convinced that the US is in decline relative to the rest of the world.” – Peter Thiel

Have a great weekend, everyone!

More on tech: 

Zero to One

Three Management Secrets from Jensen Huang

Three Lessons on Business from Warren Buffett

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