Tag Archives: Asia

BBQ Stingray at Urban Hawker

April 17, 2023 tremendousblog 3 Comments

“We should try the barbecue stingray,” she exclaimed.

“Are you serious?”

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Oh, she was. So on a recent New York evening, my friend and I found ourselves digging into something we never knew existed.

This is Mr. Fried Rice at Urban Hawker. Urban Hawker is an outstanding Singaporean food hall in midtown Manhattan that was one of Anthony Bourdain’s last projects.

Hawker centers are a tradition in Singapore, as well as Hong Kong and Malaysia. They serve simple, delicious food to people from all walks of life in a fun, homey setting.

The food is so good that these tiny stands have won Michelin stars, normally reserved for fine dining restaurants. In 2020, UNESCO even listed the humble hawker center as part of the world’s intangible cultural heritage.

Urban Hawker is the only Singaporean hawker center outside Southeast Asia.

Our little hockey puck erupted with lights and vibration — our food was ready! In life, there is no moment more exciting than this.

I gingerly carried the clamshell containers back to our table. Drop them and lose a friend forever.

“When is she going to get back from the bathroom — and can I wait that long?”

Her timing was impeccable. She slid into the booth and we popped open our containers, unleashing the smell of fresh fish and fragrant rice.

The sauce was a wonderful surprise — redolent of hot chili and deeply flavorful. I was rather unsure how to eat the fish, so I started with the massive mound of rice.

Each grain shined with crackly unctuousness. I crudely shoveled rice into my mouth like a bulldog at dinner.

Okay, let’s figure out this fish.

Stingray has a lot of bones. For Americans like me who are less accustomed to fish with bones, it can be a bit of a puzzle.

But as I plunged my fork into its depths, it soon rewarded me. The flesh is delicate and toothsome with a slight whiff of the sea.

My friend’s childhood in China seemed to have given her a distinct advantage. She surgically dissected the flesh with her fork, scraping the tines through the bones like a comb.

“Ah, that’s how you do it.”

It reminded me of when I took a Korean friend out for calzones. I neatly sliced mine and gobbled it down, smile on my face.

After a few minutes, I looked over at my dinner companion.

She had taken the calzone apart, turning it back into something resembling a pizza. Nothing had been consumed.

“How do you eat this?”

I guess she felt a little like I felt with that stingray. But for both of us, once an old hand showed us the way, we never looked back.

For all its problems, this is why I love New York. People from every culture come together and eat good food and are happy.

I hope we can do it for a hundred years. Cent’anni.

What are your favorite restaurants? Leave a comment and let me know!

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Business, Technology

Sequoia Cutting Back on China Investments

February 24, 2023 tremendousblog 1 Comment

No US venture firm is bigger in China than Sequoia Capital. But as tensions rise, even Sequoia is pulling back.

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From a report out this morning in The Wall Street Journal:

Sequoia Capital has started screening some investments its China arm is considering in technology companies there for U.S. national-security concerns, according to people familiar with the matter, as Washington steps up efforts to stop American money from funding China’s development of sensitive technologies.

Sequoia doubled down on China as recently as last year, raising a record $8.5 billion to invest there. But now, the firm is pulling back:

Between 2021 and 2022, Sequoia China made at least 20 investments in Chinese semiconductor and related companies. Since the screening process was implemented in the autumn of 2022, the firm hasn’t made any investments in Chinese semiconductor or quantum-computing startups from its new funds, which were raised in July 2022.

As dominant as Sequoia is in America, it’s even bigger in China. The firm has a piece of almost every major Chinese tech company, from Bytedance to JD to Meituan.

Even as Sequoia faces scrutiny from US regulators, China may also crack down on its investments. After all, does an increasingly nationalist CCP want foreigners owning some of China’s most important technology?

Personally, I never invest in China. The country lacks the rule of law.

This means no matter how well I do, the government can come and take it all away in an instant.

Don’t believe me? Consider the sudden ban of education tech companies, driving their stocks to near zero overnight.

It’s unwise for US investors to put money in China. But there are advantages for the US government in letting it happen.

Major investors like Sequoia usually have information rights and a board seat. They’re privy to tons of confidential information about a company.

Having that information in the hands of a US firm could serve our strategic interests.

In all, I think China’s tech sector is toast. Top entrepreneurs are leaving and investors are spooked by a Communist government run amok.

There are plenty of other promising markets out there.

Would you invest in China? Why or why not?

Have a great weekend everyone!

More on tech:

Where Is Bao Fan?

I See Negative Gross Margin Businesses

Top VC Firms Have Great Returns…Right?

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Business, Politics, Technology

Where Is Bao Fan?

February 22, 2023 tremendousblog Leave a comment

Bao Fan did everything right. Despite being one of China’s top tech investors, Bao kept a low profile and hewed to the Communist Party line. Then, he disappeared.

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From an article out this morning in The New York Times:

…on Valentine’s Day last week, rumors started circulating that Mr. Bao had gone missing. His company later confirmed his disappearance in a regulatory filing.

China’s tech world is watching closely what will happen to Mr. Bao, who knows or has worked with nearly every mover and shaker in the industry. He is not as well known outside the business world but is just as symbolic of the industry’s rising presence in China as Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba, who has largely vanished from public view after falling out with the government in 2020.

There’s no one quite like Bao Fan in the United States. Half investment banker, half venture capitalist, Bao was intimately involved in almost every major Chinese tech company.

He brought together warring startups to create giants like Didi and Meituan. Bao prospered, and so did the companies he helped.

His influence reached so far that people said, “If you don’t know Bao Fan, you haven’t made it.”

But new Chinese leaders took a darker view of Bao’s success.

The government began investigating one of his top lieutenants, Cong Lin. China’s government has implied that Bao is assisting in that investigation.

But no one knows where Bao is. Or if he’s even alive.

Clearly, Bao could’ve helped an investigation while retaining his post. It’s more likely he’s being abused and intimidated and as an example to others.

Indeed, China’s tech industry is watching closely:

A tech founder who had worked with Mr. Bao on deals wrote on social media that entrepreneurs were like “frightened birds.” “Confidence is slow to build but quick to dissipate,” he wrote. “Without confidence, who will build factories, start companies and invest in the future?”

Many Chinese entrepreneurs are quietly leaving the country with their millions.

More and more, you will see rich business owners leaving China, along with ambitious young people. Why spend a lifetime building a business if the government can just take it away?

Dictatorship is the ultimate single point of failure. One bad man in the wrong spot, and your country goes down in flames.

Xi is that man. But the Communist system is what gives him the power he has.

From an interview in The Japan Times:

“This is part of the evolution of the Communist Party,” said Drew Thompson, a visiting research scholar at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore. “Private entrepreneurs — high-profile, wealthy people — are increasingly incompatible with ‘common prosperity’ and the direction that Xi Jinping has taken.”

What do you think the future holds for Chinese tech? Leave a comment and let me know!

More on tech:

Top VC Firms Have Great Returns…Right?

Google is Losing the AI Race

Consumer Startups: What Works and What Doesn’t

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Business, Politics

Chinese Stop Paying Mortgages as Real Estate Crisis Spreads

July 28, 2022 tremendousblog Leave a comment

Chinese homebuyers are refusing to pay their mortgages in a boycott that’s spreading across the country. Many fear the homes they’re paying for will never be finished.

Now, suppliers to builders are also defaulting on loans.

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From ABC News Australia:

A fast-growing mortgage boycott across dozens of cities in China has prompted some property suppliers to cease their bank loan repayments, raising fears the escalating situation could trigger a further downward spiral in the sector and even threaten the country’s financial stability.

Hundreds of landscapers, sculpture-makers and construction companies have expressed their anger that they have been bled dry because some debt-saddled developers did not pay their bills while they continued to service or help build apartments, Chinese media Caixin reported.

Chinese usually buy homes and start making payments before they’re complete.

The boycott has spread to 90 cities in mere weeks.

The Chinese government is censoring reports on the boycott, per Bloomberg. So the situation inside China may be even worse than reported.

A real estate meltdown is a catastrophe for the average Chinese saver. Chinese put 70% of their wealth in real estate, compared to 35% in the US.

The property sector accounts for about 25% of GDP. China’s GDP growth has flatlined as the sector sputters.

And it gets worse. Chinese banks have lent huge sums to property developers.

As developers default, bank runs are spreading across China. Government thugs have beaten protesters desperately trying to recover their life’s savings.

Amid a bleak economy and constant COVID lockdowns, workers are struggling. Youth unemployment has spiked, hitting over 19% last month.

Consider the picture for the average Chinese person: most of your savings are tied up in an apartment that will never be completed, the rest is in a bank that’s insolvent, and your only child can’t find work.

Revolution might start to sound good.

In the US, we know that a property crisis fueled by heavy debt can spread quickly. Huge liabilities pop up at different institutions unpredictably.

This undermines confidence in the entire financial system. When that happens, you get a financial crisis.

That’s what China is facing today.

At stake is the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party. Officials have staked their power on offering ever-increasing living standards.

Those days may be over.

I can only hope that Chinese citizens prevail and oust a government that has brutalized them for generations.

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Photo: Unfinished Chinese apartment buildings being demolished in Kunming, China

Business, Politics, Technology

China’s Crypto Ban and the Road to Total Control

September 24, 2021 tremendousblog 1 Comment

You just went to a protest marking the anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre. You were scared, but you went. You wore a mask and took a winding route home. No one could have seen you.

You arrive home to your Hong Kong apartment and decide to check your bank account. Did the rent get deducted yet?

But when you log in, you see the balance has gone from 21,000 yuan to zero.

A notice appears to contact your local Party office.

This is the future China wants to bring about. Its tools:

1) The social credit score
2) The digital yuan
3) The banning of cryptocurrencies other than the digital yuan

Today, China banned bitcoin and all other cryptocurrencies. All, that is, except its own digital yuan, which debuted this spring.

It wasn’t hard to see this coming. China banned cryptocurrency mining earlier this year. This is part of a long term trend toward total control under Xi Jinping.

China’s government has cracked down hard on tech companies, Hong Kong dissidents, and even seemingly random targets like celebrities.

What’s next? About five years ago, China’s government created a social credit score. Any action that upsets the government, from farebeating to protesting, can have dire consequences. One may be unable to get a loan, a job, or access the internet.

After the crypto ban, the next logical step for China’s dictatorship is to ban cash and all non-digital yuan. Then, all money is electronic, traceable, and centrally controlled.

Step out of line, and your life savings could be gone.

It’s a dark, dystopian future. But I strongly suspect it’s coming.

We in the United States and the rest of the free world should guard against any such thing being done here. I will be wary of attempts to ban cryptocurrencies or cash as paving the way for similar control. Control that has no place in a democratic society.

China Is Crushing One of Its Most Innovative Companies

July 16, 2021 tremendousblog Leave a comment

Didi Chuxing, or “Honk Honk Taxi”, was one of the greatest success stories of Chinese tech. Founded in 2012, it broke out just months later by providing rides during a heavy Beijing snowstorm. A regular taxi was impossible to get, but Didi came through.

After that, the company was on the fast track. It raised over $23 billion in funding from major venture firms like Softbank and beat Uber to dominate the Chinese market. So when the time came to go public this summer, markets had every reason to cheer.

Just sixteen days later, things look a lot different. Here’s what Didi’s stock has done:

Investors are down 15% in just two weeks, a disappointing debut. Meanwhile, Didi’s offices are flooded with Chinese state security agents:

China sent regulators including state security and police officials to Didi Global Inc.’s ride-hailing business on Friday as part of a cybersecurity investigation, the latest development in a regulatory saga that has gripped China’s tech industry.
Regulators from government units including the Ministry of Public Security, the Ministry of State Security, the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Ministry of Transport and Ministry of Natural Resources will be stationed at Didi starting Friday for the investigation, the cyberspace administration said in an online statement.
Potential outcomes include financial penalties, suspensions of business licenses and criminal charges.

Imagine if, shortly after its IPO, FBI and CIA agents raided Uber headquarters. This is exactly what’s happening to Didi.

Didi may not have adequately disclosed the concerns the Chinese government had about its security practices. That, and substantial investor losses, set the stage for a tsunami of shareholder lawsuits. Indeed, a class action suit has already been filed against Didi.

I see Didi being increasingly distracted by heavy pressure from the authoritarian Chinese government along with cascading lawsuits in the US. Even if the company survives, they’re distracted and ripe for disruption.

There is no evidence Didi has actually done anything improper with user data. But the Chinese government doesn’t like any information passing outside its borders, and companies are required to make disclosures to IPO in the US, so Didi is now under fire from a powerful and dictatorial government.

Another company had its IPO on the same day as Didi: SentinelOne, a California-based cybersecurity startup. Here’s how they’ve done since:

Up 4% with no regulatory problems: a situation Didi can only dream of.

If one Chinese company after another comes under the Communist thumb, and investors suffer as a result, why wouldn’t the venture funding go to the SentinelOnes rather than the Didis? Even in today’s hot market, there are always more startups than there is funding. Chinese companies, with their unique regulatory risks, are likely to be the last in line.

China has generated amazing innovation, but those days may be coming to an end.

Have a good weekend everyone!

How China’s Tech Industry Dies

July 13, 2021 tremendousblog 3 Comments

The Chinese Communist Party has launched a severe crackdown on the technology industry:

Didi Chuxing, the Chinese equivalent of Uber, had its app removed from all Chinese app stores shortly after its US IPO
ByteDance, parent company of TikTok, shelved its IPO plans under regulatory pressure. Its CEO has resigned.
Over 30 tech companies have been hauled in for meetings with regulators
Ant Group, a financial company founded by Jack Ma that would’ve been among the largest IPOs in history, had its IPO in China cancelled after Ma criticized authorities

This crackdown makes it nearly impossible for Chinese companies to list their shares in the US, removing one of the main ways that venture capitalists cash out. This will cause venture firms to shy away from investing in Chinese companies.

Why does this matter? Let’s take a look at how venture funding works:

1) Company makes product
2) Company pitches investors
3) Investors give company money
4) Company uses money to hire engineers and make a better product, and…
5) Acquire users through ads and/or building their sales team. Next…
6) With more users and revenue, company comes back to VC’s to raise more money at a higher valuation. Then, they do more of 4-5
7) After repeated rounds of VC funding, the company either gets acquired or goes public. VCs cash out.

But Chinese companies cannot go public in the US for the forseeable future, and even a listing in China may not be possible, as Ant Group proved. And if the Chinese authorities think a US listing brings security risks, surely the acquisition of a Chinese tech firm by a US company would be even riskier and thus also off limits.

What does that leave in terms of exits? Acquisition by a Chinese tech company, which means a lot fewer and smaller potential acquirers. The only other option is an IPO in China, providing the company doesn’t offend anyone. But the Chinese stock market is just 1/4th the size of the US one, so the payoff may be much smaller.

No exit means no investment. For VC firms, the exit is the entire point!

Unlike in China, firms in the US and elsewhere will be able to choose whatever exit is the most lucrative. That means they’ll be able to raise venture capital much more easily. That money will let them hire the best engineers, build the best products, and acquire tons of customers, leaving Chinese firms in the dust.

A couple of years ago, I thought the Chinese technology industry might overtake the US. I don’t think that anymore. With the government’s hand ever heavier, I see Chinese technology falling further and further behind.

The Chinese people have proven they have the skills to compete. But will their government let them?

Why Indian Tech Is Exploding

July 7, 2021 tremendousblog Leave a comment

The Indian tech industry is growing at an incredible pace:

Indian startups have raised a record $10.46 billion in the first half of 2021, up from $4 billion during the same period last year

Salaries are also increasing rapidly, from an average of $40,000 to $70,000, and even $150,000 for some top engineers.

Why is Indian tech growing so fast? I think several changes in the industry in recent years are weighing in its favor:

Major investors went remote due to COVID, and have largely stayed that way even as the pandemic recedes in the US. This means they can meet an Indian entrepreneur just as easily as one across the street in San Francisco. This democratization is great for the entire industry.
The venture industry as a whole is on fire, with both exits and valuations in the US reaching staggering levels. This gives venture firms more incentive to look outside the US for better deals, and more cash with which to do so.
It’s easier to incorporate in the US than ever. I recently invested in a startup that lets companies incorporate, issue stock options, and handle compliance cheaper and easier than ever before. Many of their customers are outside the US, but incorporate here to make fundraising from American investors easy. (More on this awesome company soon!)
India is stacked with tech talent. Anyone who has worked at a software company in the US can tell you that Indian-Americans are a huge part of the industry, and they have incredible skills.
China is killing its tech industry. Heavy-handed regulation, massive fines, and even disappearances of tech entrepreneurs is having a chilling effect, and the number of Chinese startups breaking out is way down. India competes with China for venture funds, and right now, it’s looking like the better bet.

New regulations that may require companies to expose users and break encryption are the biggest risk I see on the horizon for Indian tech. But with a deep talent pool and ample funding, India’s is a startup scene to watch.

सौभाग्य!

India Is Soaking Up Venture Capital Like a Sponge

May 27, 2021 tremendousblog Leave a comment

It’s not just about the Bay Area anymore. Indian startups have raised venture funding at a record pace this year, on track to double from 2020:

Startups raised total investments of $7.8 billion in the first four months of this calendar year, which is almost 70% of the overall corpus of $12.1 billion raised in entire 2020 and more than 50% of $14.2 billion raised in 2019, data from US-based research firm PitchBook shows.

More here.

The average deal size is also near record highs, at $25 million. The most valuable venture-backed startup in India is Paytm, a payments and e-commerce company, at $16.7 billion.

India has seen 13 companies reach unicorn status this year ($1 billion valuation and up), an impressive figure. The US remains far and away the leader, with 288 total unicorns as of last month. China has 133, and India is third at 32.

As a US-based investor, I see a lot of companies pitch, but not those from India. The American and Indian VC markets don’t seem well connected. I’m not sure how to fix that, but I’m eager to have access to this big crop of quality companies. The most active VC firms in India are a mix of American and Indian organizations. With numerous people from India staffing (and starting) US tech companies, I hope to see more connections between our markets in the future!

Dig into these posts for more on startups and venture capital:

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News

Will A Massive Uprising in North Korea Mean the End of Kim Jong-un?

March 10, 2021 tremendousblog Leave a comment

North Korean defector and Youtuber Yeonmi Park is reporting a massive uprising in Musan, North Korea. The uprising began when police cracked down on a market selling Chinese products, which is illegal in North Korea despite them being the only goods available.

Farmers took their farm implements and attacked the police. The backdrop for this is an increasingly hungry population with little to lose. Indeed, the situation is so dire that even Russian diplomats are fleeing the country by railroad handcart, appalled at the lack of basic food and goods.

I haven’t been able to find independent corroboration of this uprising, and Park is unclear on what her sources are, but I assume she is still in contact with people inside North Korea.

Her discussion of the uprising begins here.

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Tag Archives: Asia

BBQ Stingray at Urban Hawker

Sequoia Cutting Back on China Investments

Where Is Bao Fan?

Chinese Stop Paying Mortgages as Real Estate Crisis Spreads

China’s Crypto Ban and the Road to Total Control

China Is Crushing One of Its Most Innovative Companies

How China’s Tech Industry Dies

Why Indian Tech Is Exploding

India Is Soaking Up Venture Capital Like a Sponge

Will A Massive Uprising in North Korea Mean the End of Kim Jong-un?

An angel investor's take on life and business