Around 7 million Americans drive for a living. What happens when they all suddenly lose their jobs?

The End of Human Drivers

Waymo’s robotaxis are in 5 markets and counting. Tesla Robotaxis are in Austin and SF. Self-driving semi trucks can’t be far behind.

Millions of Americans drive a truck for their primary living. Another roughly 1.4 million make their living primarily from driving for gig platforms. Hundreds of thousands more drive buses, ambulances, and traditional taxis.

Technological progress is often sudden.

One or two Waymos trundling around. Then dozens. Now over a thousand.

Those 7 million Americans are in serious trouble. Within the next decade, most may lose their jobs.

These are not people with tons of skills. If they had that, they’d do something else.

After all, driving usually doesn’t pay much.

What will they do? How will they eat?

“But We’ll Create New Jobs!”

I can hear you saying it now. I used to say that too.

And it’s true. But those drivers won’t be qualified for the new jobs.

Imagine this future: driving jobs go away, more jobs as TikTokers are created. Do you think these truckers will become TikTokers?

Or perhaps those truckers could become nurses.

But nursing generally requires a bachelor’s degree. Most truckers don’t have one.

Desperate Workers Mean Lower Wages

And there’s another thing…

Whatever new jobs are created, millions of unemployed drivers will be trying like hell to get them. That will make jobs harder to find and push down wages.

And this is just for drivers!

Countless other jobs are under threat from AI too. Software engineers. Accountants. Customer service agents.

White collar and blue, educated and not, AI is about to gobsmack American workers.

The Rich Get Richer

An unfolding disaster for workers is a gold mine for corporations and investors.

Full-time employment in America has been flat for 2 years. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is up over 40% in the same period.

Companies just don’t need to hire like they used to. And the money they save goes to the bottom line.

Picturing 2035

It’s 2035. Millions of Americans have lost their jobs. Unemployment is high.

Meanwhile, San Francisco and New York are glittering. Electric Ferraris ply the streets. VC’s and hedge funders sip coffee made by robots.

Some have struck it rich. But across the nation as a whole, far more people have lost their jobs.

And in America in 2035, majority still rules.

Imagine the political fallout…

Sky high tax rates. Expropriation of property. And surely some racism and xenophobia thrown in, even though the robots are the real culprits.

Can’t Stop, Won’t Stop

I’m not sure how we deal with this world. No one has ever successfully stopped a technology.

Consider the technology we’ve tried hardest to contain: nuclear weapons.

Nuclear weapons have spread anyway. 9 countries have them. That number is sure to grow.

If we can’t stop nukes, we can’t stop AI and robots either.

What’s more, AI and robotics will make wonderful things possible! Safer cars, easier deliveries, a maid for everyone.

Even if we could stop it, I’m not sure I’d want to.

Wrap-Up

Here’s my best guess on how we’ll deal with AI hammering the labor market…

Universal Basic Income. Massive public works programs, including expanding the military. Job retraining programs — which, if they’re anything like today’s programs, probably won’t work.

By the way, when I wanted some scenarios on what the government would do, guess what I did? I asked AI.

That tells you a lot.

AI will eliminate millions of jobs, soon. What to do with those displaced workers will be one of the key questions of our time.

Do you think AI will be a disaster for jobs?

More on tech:

Meet BMW’s New Factory Workers

The End of Human Food Delivery

The Iron Monster: China’s Massive Bridge Building Robot

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