Tremendous

AMC Shares 50% More Likely to be Traded in Dark Pools

Raw SEC data

The most recent data set ends on September 14th. The fails to deliver is the number right before the company name:

20210914|00165C104|AMC|119929|AMC ENTMT HLDGS INC CL A COM S|51.69

20210914|023135106|AMZN|3|AMAZON COM INC;COM USD0.01|3457.17

20210914|037833100|AAPL|3320|APPLE INC;COM NPV|149.55

20210914|30231G102|XOM|4873|EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION|55.37

20210914|30303M102|FB|100|FACEBOOK INC CL A COM STK (DE)|376.51

Photo: “CMI 101: Demystifying Derivatives with CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler” by Third Way is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

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Science, Technology

Male Contraception With an Ultrasound Device?

September 29, 2021 tremendousblog 7 Comments

A fascinating new device could one provide the elusive male contraceptive:

German design graduate Rebecca Weiss has won a James Dyson Award for a male contraceptive device called Coso, which uses ultrasound waves to temporarily halt sperm regeneration.

Weiss’s Coso device is designed to be a reversible contraceptive solution. To use it, a person would fill the device with water up to the indicated mark, turn it on so it heats to operating temperature, and sit for a few minutes with their testicles dipped into it.

Coso looks like it could be the newest Alexa. It even comes with an app to show where you are in the process.

Right now, this device is just a prototype and is not available to the public. Its technology is based on a published study in the journal Reproductive Biology and Endocrinology.

This study successfully used ultrasound currents on rat testes in order to reduce sperm count. It will take a lot more research to determine this is safe and effective in humans.

If it works, I think this innovation could be transformative. Most, if not all, of the burden of contraception is generally on women. Those methods often have significant side effects.

Perhaps there is a better way!

I think a startup like this would make a wonderful candidate for Y Combinator, which backs startups from all over the world in areas including biotech and medical devices.

Best of luck to the amazing Rebecca Weiss!

The Hamster Crypto Trader That’s Outperforming Me

September 28, 2021 tremendousblog 1 Comment

I’ve got a fun one for you today: a German hamster is trading cryptocurrencies. And he’s blowing away the S&P 500:

The livestreamed hamster, named Mr. Goxx, has been independently trading a portfolio of various cryptocurrencies since June 12, and so far its* performance has been impressive. As of Friday, the portfolio was up nearly 24%, according to the @mrgoxx twitter feed that documents daily performance, along with every trade made by the hamster. Mr. Goxx’s performance outpaces bitcoin and the S&P 500 over the same time period.

Here’s a short video of this financial titan at Goxx Capital headquarters:

First, Goxx runs on the “intention wheel” to pick which one of about 30 cryptocurrencies to trade. Once the crypto is chosen, the hamster runs through one of two “decision tunnels” that trigger either a buy or sell trade of the chosen cryptocurrency.

As someone who invests for a living, I’m okay with being outperformed by a rodent. He earned it, and he’s also much cuter.

Whimsical as this example is, we attribute skill to fund managers who have a good run, only to forget them when they underperform. Bill Miller of Legg Mason was lionized for beating the S&P 500 15 years in a row. Shortly thereafter, his fund lost two thirds of its value in the financial crisis and he was out of a job.

I, for one, will be a supporter of Mr. Goxx even if his hot streak runs out.

Follow Mr. Goxx on Twitter, Reddit, YouTube, or Twitch!

Note: I object to the term “it” for this adorable little man!

More on markets:

How Solana Could Wipe Out Visa and MasterCard

China’s Crypto Ban and the Road to Total Control

Where Can We Hide in a Financial Crisis?

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Business

Where Can We Hide in a Financial Crisis?

September 27, 2021 tremendousblog Leave a comment

Markets are booming today, but just 18 months ago, things looked like this:

Ouch.

I lost about 22% of my portfolio in less than five weeks. It certainly made life interesting.

Today, markets sit near all time highs and jobs go begging. It’s a far cry from the darkest days of the COVID disaster.

But the next financial crisis is coming. It could be in a month, a year, or ten years. But as investors, we need to be prepared.

One of the best ways to protect ourselves is to own assets that are not correlated with stocks. That way, when the market is falling off a cliff, a part of our portfolio is preserved.

People often look to overseas stocks or real estate to diversify. I own those myself. But although they can deliver nice returns, they are highly correlated with US stocks.

Global stocks have a 0.97 correlation with the S&P 500, a near perfect match. Even Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) show a very strong correlation (0.70).

Investment grade bonds (-0.06) and cash (-0.17) show low correlations with stocks. But the yield to maturity on that Bloomberg investment grade bond index is just 1.42%, way below inflation. And cash in a bank account returns about enough to buy a candy bar at the end of the year.

So where do we go? Here are some options:

Litigation Finance

This arcane corner of the financial world gives plaintiffs and lawyers money to sue people. The lawsuits usually involve a small company suing a larger one.

Returns can be eye popping. But it’s difficult for those of us who aren’t lawyers to understand what we’re investing in. Are these good cases likely to win? Or suckers’ bets?

It probably only makes sense as a small portion of a portfolio, at most. And minimum investments can be high, making it less attractive to many.

Farmland

Ya gotta eat, right?

New platforms have sprung up to help people invest directly in farmland. Returns can exceed those of stocks, and correlation with US stocks is almost nonexistent (-0.05).

This could be an attractive area, but it’s quite unfamiliar to me, and probably to most other investors. I’d have to research it a lot more before jumping in.

Dividend Aristocrats

Dividend Aristocrats are blue chip stocks that have increased their dividends every year for at least 25 years. They’re household names like Coca-Cola, Exxon, and IBM.

They generally have higher returns than the S&P 500 with lower volatility. That’s a win-win.

But they’re highly correlated with the rest of the index (0.9). That said, they’re still better than overseas stocks in this respect, and not dissimilar to real estate.

Wrap Up

We have some interesting options for keeping our portfolios safer in the next bear market while preserving yields today. I encourage you to dig deeper into your favorite categories.

What asset classes do you favor in a crisis? Let me know in the comments at the very bottom.

More on markets:

How Solana Could Wipe Out Visa and MasterCard

Should Anyone Own Bonds?

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Business, Politics, Technology

China’s Crypto Ban and the Road to Total Control

September 24, 2021 tremendousblog 1 Comment

You just went to a protest marking the anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre. You were scared, but you went. You wore a mask and took a winding route home. No one could have seen you.

You arrive home to your Hong Kong apartment and decide to check your bank account. Did the rent get deducted yet?

But when you log in, you see the balance has gone from 21,000 yuan to zero.

A notice appears to contact your local Party office.

This is the future China wants to bring about. Its tools:

1) The social credit score
2) The digital yuan
3) The banning of cryptocurrencies other than the digital yuan

Today, China banned bitcoin and all other cryptocurrencies. All, that is, except its own digital yuan, which debuted this spring.

It wasn’t hard to see this coming. China banned cryptocurrency mining earlier this year. This is part of a long term trend toward total control under Xi Jinping.

China’s government has cracked down hard on tech companies, Hong Kong dissidents, and even seemingly random targets like celebrities.

What’s next? About five years ago, China’s government created a social credit score. Any action that upsets the government, from farebeating to protesting, can have dire consequences. One may be unable to get a loan, a job, or access the internet.

After the crypto ban, the next logical step for China’s dictatorship is to ban cash and all non-digital yuan. Then, all money is electronic, traceable, and centrally controlled.

Step out of line, and your life savings could be gone.

It’s a dark, dystopian future. But I strongly suspect it’s coming.

We in the United States and the rest of the free world should guard against any such thing being done here. I will be wary of attempts to ban cryptocurrencies or cash as paving the way for similar control. Control that has no place in a democratic society.

AMC Shares 50% More Likely to be Traded in Dark Pools

September 23, 2021 tremendousblog Leave a comment

The huge proportion of shares in AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. trading in dark pools has raised suspicions among retail investors. So today, I decided to find out if AMC is really more likely to be traded in dark pools.

What I found surprised me.

First, a little explanation. A dark pool is a privately operated stock exchange. It does not report prices publicly like the NYSE or Nasdaq.

In fact, there is little transparency of any sort. Most are operated by large investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.

60% of AMC shares in the last 30 days have been traded in these dark pools. In general, 40% of the market by value is traded there.

So AMC shares are 50% more likely to be traded in this opaque, secretive type of exchange.

What’s more, shares in tiny “microcap” stocks are the most likely to trade on dark pools. But AMC has a market cap of $21 billion, making it a large cap stock.

If you look at the two stocks most similar in size to AMC, VICI Properties, Inc. and Netapp, Inc., you see much lower figures. 30% and 26% of their shares trade in dark pools respectively, less than half that of AMC.

And if you look at one of the most commonly traded shares in the market, the S&P 500 ETF Trust, it too is traded in dark pools only half as often as AMC.

Let’s review: a massive proportion of shares are traded in dark pools. Add that to a long term pattern of huge fails to deliver suggestive of illegal naked short sales (see this, this, and this).

Trading in AMC shares looks increasingly fishy.

How much more evidence does the SEC need before they investigate?

More on markets:

AMC Has Burned Short Sellers for $4 Billion in 2021, Per Latest Data

New Data: AMC Fails to Deliver Down 85%

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Business

AMC Has Burned Short Sellers for $4 Billion in 2021, Per Latest Data

September 22, 2021 tremendousblog Leave a comment

So far this year, shares of AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. have increased by a factor of 20:

This runup has badly burned short sellers, largely hedge funds. New data shows just how bad the bleeding is:

The latest data, courtesy of S3 Partners, LLC, reveals that by the end of last week, short-sellers who bet against AMC had lost $4.08 billion over the course of this year. The picture was bleaker for those who had targetted GameStop, with the data revealing that the short sellers’ year-to-date losses stood at $6.44 billion. Cumulatively, this shows that AMC and GameStop short-sellers have lost $10.52 billion as we exit the third quarter.

But hedge funds don’t seem to be learning from their mistakes:

Interestingly, however, while the AMC short interest shares have dropped since June, recent data reveals that they are rising again. For instance, in late August, they stood at roughly 82 million, highlighting that by the end of last week, more than four million short interest shares were added to the bets against the company.

These losses have already caused the implosion of some funds that bet against meme stocks. It’s incredible that fund managers can look at their colleagues losing everything and not change their strategy.

I suspect the problem is their mindset. Institutional investors are used to viewing retail traders as “dumb money.” If I’m so convinced that I’m smarter than my adversary, even clear evidence that my side is losing may not change my mind.

It’s just a shame that the teachers and firefighters whose pensions many hedge funds play the markets with don’t have a say.

More on markets:

New Data: AMC Fails to Deliver Down 85%

What a Hedge Fund King Fears Most

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