Money You Can Afford to Lose

May 10, 2023

Last night, I got a call from my old friend Matt. Matt had a problem. He had saved some money, but was terrified to invest it.

“What if I lose it?” he asked? So I explained to him the core concept behind all of my investments.

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The Money You Can Afford to Lose

In this great country, many of us are fortunate enough to have money we can afford to lose. We wouldn’t enjoy losing it, but life would go on.

That’s money we can use for riskier investments.

Why do we do this? Because greater risk often comes with greater rewards.

Francis the Speculator

Every day, I make some of the riskiest investments on earth. At night, I sleep like the dead.

A tech startup might be the most speculative investment you can make. At this early stage, a company is just a couple of people on laptops.

Assets? Nothing.

Collateral? Lol.

I expect 70% of my startups to go bust. The failure rate is higher than almost anything, except maybe crypto.

“Is that nerve-wracking?” people often ask.

Not at all. Because I know how much money I can afford to lose.

And I never bet more than that.

Startups are at the extreme end of the risk spectrum. An S&P 500 index fund is closer to the middle, and a better choice for Matt.

Money You Can’t Afford to Lose

We all need something to pay the bills, right?

That’s the money we can’t afford to lose. So we shouldn’t expose it to too much risk.

A good home for that money is a bank account or money market. You can make a little interest without worrying you’ll lose money.

Losses, Guaranteed!

Back to my buddy Matt.

“I’ll remove the mystery. You will absolutely lose money in stocks. I guarantee it,” I told him.

If you invest in any risky category long enough, you’ll take losses.

Thing is though, it tends to come back. And as humans innovate, prices reach ever higher.

Non-Attachment

I had one last thing for Matt.

It’s the concept of “non-attachment.” Called danshari in Japanese, it comes from Buddhism.

I try not to be attached to money.

I have certain assets now. But I might not always.

That money isn’t me. I’m me.

When I was younger, I didn’t have a dime. And I was still me.

So if I increase my assets, that’s great. But if they go away, I’ll still be Francis and I’ll be okay.

If we adopt a healthy attitude toward money, we become better investors.

We take a good bet when it’s available. And we don’t obsess about the potential for loss.

But something more important happens too. We become happier people.

How do you think about money? Leave a comment and let us know!

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Steak and Potatoes at Their Best at The Capital Grille

May 9, 2023

The juicy, crisply seared steaks hit the table. This is the good life.

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Ralphie May immortalized The Capital Grille in comedy. And as the staff covered our table in meat and scrumptious sides, I grinned from ear to ear.

“The potato don’t come with it?”
Ralphie May

We began with bread and butter, my favorite way to judge a restaurant. At the best tables, they’re never an afterthought.

The basket was stuffed with three kinds of bread. My favorite was a dark loaf with raisins — wonderful with a thick pat of butter.

Next, I heaped my plate with crispy green lettuce in a light vinaigrette. What is it about fresh lettuce that goes so well with a steak?

It was time for the most exciting moment in life: when they bring your entree.

I watched the staff set plate after plate in front of my friends. I stared at the waiter, slackjawed and doglike, awaiting mine.

This is when seconds feel like hours.

It’s here! A beautifully seared filet, oozing juices.

Does heaven smell like this?

I gingerly cut into it, almost afraid to damage this masterpiece. The inside was a beautiful red — a perfect medium rare.

The steak was tender. I could taste the fire of the grill.

But my favorite part of a steakhouse just might be the side dishes. And Capital Grille did not disappoint.

The mashed potatoes are made with sweet cream and lots of butter. I probably took more than my share — all’s fair in love and war.

Asparagus can be a difficult dish. Restaurant after restaurant undercooks it, leaving it hard to chew.

But not here! It was just soft enough while retaining some crunch.

Ah, dessert.

My favorite was the flourless espresso cake. Less sweet than most, it has a deep coffee aroma.

It was the ideal end to a fabulous meal.

What are your favorite steakhouses? Leave a comment and let us know!

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The AI Gold Rush

May 8, 2023

Venture capital investment in AI is exploding. But are we setting ourselves up for disaster?

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From a report out this morning in The Wall Street Journal:

Analysts at research firm PitchBook predict that venture investment in generative AI companies will easily be several times last year’s level of $4.5 billion. That is driven in part by Microsoft’s $10 billion investment in January into OpenAI, the startup behind the wildly popular ChatGPT bot. In comparison, such investment totaled $408 million in 2018, the year OpenAI released the initial version of the language model powering ChatGPT.

VC’s are funding startups with no revenue at valuations of $50 million, $100 million, or more:

LangChain, an open-sourced library for software developer tools with no revenue, recently closed a $10 million round at a $50 million valuation, according to people familiar with the matter. A few weeks later, venture-capital firm Sequoia Capital swooped in with more funding and quadrupled the valuation to around $200 million, they said.

I have no idea how to play AI right now.

I see what seems like the coolest generative AI tool ever. Then, a week later, I see another tool that blows that away.

When a market is moving that fast, it’s almost impossible to place a bet. So for now, I’m sitting back and watching how AI evolves.

Do these frothy rounds in AI startups make sense?

With an exceptional team, a pre-revenue bet can work.

For example, the Journal article mentions Essential AI, a startup founded by two of the leading AI researchers at Google. They raised recently at a $50 million valuation.

Making a bet on incredible founders at a $10 million, $25 million, or maybe even $50 million valuation can work. But when the numbers stretch into the nine figures, it’s very hard to make money.

With AI, we risk repeating all the mistakes we made in crypto.

$100 million seed rounds with no product or paying customers just don’t work. When the entry price is that high, there aren’t enough big wins to cover all our losses.

I want defensible businesses with real customers and revenue. And the entry price has to make sense.

I think AI will change the world. But as an investor, I’m going to be patient.

How are you playing the AI boom? Leave a comment and let us know.

Great to be back!

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AI: Capital Bonfire?

Right Founder. Wrong Market.

From $10 Billion to Zero — Late Stage Ice Age

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‘There’s a Lot of Agony Out There’: Munger on CRE

May 1, 2023

“A lot of real estate isn’t so good any more,” Munger said. “We have a lot of troubled office buildings, a lot of troubled shopping centres, a lot of troubled other properties. There’s a lot of agony out there.”

Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chairman Charles Munger has truly seen it all. At age 99, he’s an astute observer of markets and remains Warren Buffett’s right hand man.

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So when he sat down for a rare interview with the Financial Times this weekend, I couldn’t miss it.

Munger notes that many US banks are holding bad loans on commercial property. Those properties are declining in value due to higher vacancies and interest rates.

Loans for commercial real estate aren’t like residential mortgages. Instead of being fixed for 30 years, they usually must be refinanced every 5-10 years.

Banks are increasingly wary of CRE loans. From the Munger interview:

He noted that banks were already pulling back from lending to commercial developers. “Every bank in the country is way tighter on real estate loans today than they were six months ago,” he said. “They all seem [to be] too much trouble.”

If the refinancing happens at all, it will be at a much higher rate. If the owner can’t pay the new, higher payments, he may default.

That leaves the bank holding the bag.

And if the owner tries to sell, he faces a tough market.

Sales of office space are down 66% in the past year. There are no buyers at any price for vacant office space in NYC, according to a broker friend of mine.

Berkshire is staying away from this tough market. So is little old Francis — my real estate investments are in higher end apartments and fulfillment centers.

What’s the future for CRE? Leave a comment and let us know what you think!

This is the last blog for this week. I’m heading down to Kentucky tomorrow to visit my grandma!

See you on Monday, May 8th!

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Never Finished

April 28, 2023

“While most people stop when they’re tired, I stop when I am done.”
David Goggins

David Goggins just might be the baddest man alive. He holds the world pull-up record (4,030 in 17 hours), has 70 ultramarathons under his belt…oh, and he’s also a Navy SEAL.

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As I closed the cover of his new book Never Finished, I knew I couldn’t do it justice in a single blog post. So before we head off for the weekend, I thought I’d share just a few of my favorite moments:

Seconds of Weakness

If you’re trying to lose weight, quit drinking, anything, your moment of weakness will be counted in seconds. Winning those few seconds is everything.

When I quit smoking in 2015, I was afraid I couldn’t do it. How can I be vigilant for the rest of my life?

But David is right. Any cigarette craving was brief and transient.

We can win those few seconds. Let’s get it.

Doing Hard Things

Doing a wall sit on Sunday, I felt the familiar burn in my thighs. Mentally, I resisted it.

Oh no, it hurts, make it stop!

But then I remembered what David said. Stop looking for a sign that the hard times will end.

Just notice the feeling, and accept that that’s the sensation you have right now.

Let’s Commit

“…until you start feeling a sense of pride and self respect in the work you do, no matter how small or overlooked those jobs might be, you will continue to half-ass your life.”
David Goggins

Like anyone, there are jobs I don’t want to do. Cleaning the tub is pretty high on that list.

All that bending. Hair. Eww.

But last Sunday, I scrubbed it spic and span and it was actually fun. Because instead of counting the seconds till I was done, I enjoyed the beautiful sheen I made with my own hands.

We don’t just do better work when we take pride in what we do. We have more fun!

Sgt. Jack

As hard as he is, David is only the second baddest character in his book. The gold has to go to Sgt. Jack, his grandfather.

This steely man faced down intense bigotry. He spent his life in the Army and retired to a comfortable, paid off home filled with family.

Sgt. Jack’s hard edge almost made David think his grandpa didn’t care about him. Quite the opposite.

Sgt. Jack taught David how to work. How to take pride in what he does.

How to be a man.

His most enduring lesson?

Through hard work “you will not only level the playing field but also surpass those born with more natural ability and advantages than you. Let your hours become days, then weeks, then years of effort. Allow discipline to seep into your cells until work becomes a reflex as automatic as breathing. With discipline as your medium, your life will become a work of art. “
David Goggins

Being Grateful for Difficulty

It’s one of the hardest races on earth. The Moab 240, run yearly in Utah, lasts for days and requires an ascent approximately equal to the height of Mount Everest.

Of course, David was there.

And not only there. He was among the leaders.

But a wrong turn and a thyroid issue waylaid him. Now he wasn’t just way behind — he was seriously ill.

But David controlled his mind:

“”….I had been gifted another rare opportunity to test myself in adverse conditions and become more. “”
David Goggins

He recovered his legs and finished the race.

Tough times suck. But in our modern, flabby society, they’re also a gift.

You’re gonna love this book. Grab yourself a copy!

Now, I think I’ll have some cookies. 🙂 Have a great weekend, everyone!

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Right Founder. Wrong Market.

April 27, 2023

I have a problem. I invested in an amazing founder.

But he’s in the wrong market.

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His name is Jim. He runs a consumer SaaS company.

Actually, his name isn’t Jim and that’s not his market either. This is a composite.

Jim works really hard. He’s also quite innovative.

Jim finds customer service people at Home Depot. He picks whoever is most helpful and makes them associates in customer success at his startup.

It’s a genius idea!

But Jim’s company is barely growing. They’re also burning a great deal of money.

Being in consumer, their customer acquisition cost is extremely high. After the iOS 14 update in May of 2021, it quadrupled.

They have fought tooth and nail ever since to get it back to a manageable level.

And they succeeded! Thing is though, Google is about to do the same thing this year.

And it starts all over again.

Jim also deals with an enormous amount of customer churn. Individuals love to try a product for a little while and then leave.

I recently subscribed to HBO Max so I could watch Succession. After just a couple of weeks, I cancelled it.

They even offered me a free month. I declined. I know, I’m extremely cheap.

So are a lot of other people. That’s a big problem for Jim.

Remember, when I told you Jim works really hard?

Normally, that’s an incredibly good trait. But not this time.

Being really hard working and unwilling to give up is actually a huge problem here. Jim keeps beating his head against the wall.

Nothing is working…much. The company is growing a little and burn is down. But still, it’s not really going anywhere.

What would I like Jim to do?

Fire everyone but the co founders. Trash the existing business completely.

Use whatever cash is left to find a totally new business. Start with a blank sheet of paper.

Someday, Jim might do this. But probably not.

After all, he never gives up.

None of this is Jim’s fault. But that doesn’t change the fact that our goal of creating an enduring, multibillion dollar company isn’t happening.

So Francis, why don’t you talk to Jim? Why don’t you tell him what you’re saying to us here?

I’m a minority investor. I’m not on the board.

I have no right to say this to a founder. And even if I did, they would never listen to me.

So instead of telling him, I’m telling all of you.

Are you a founder? Be like Jim.

Be tenacious. Work hard. Innovate.

But when something is only kinda sorta working for a very long time, don’t be like Jim.

Give up. Start over. Start fresh.

It’s gonna hurt big time. But it’s what you have to do.

Are you a Jim? Do you know one?

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From $10 Billion to Zero — Late Stage Ice Age

Down Rounds Everywhere

From Seed to $10M ARR

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From $10 Billion to Zero — Late Stage Ice Age

April 26, 2023

“…if you’re a Series C stage startup, you’re a late stage startup, with let’s call it a pre-AI model, the spigot is just turned off completely.”
David Sacks

The year was 2021, and late stage startups never had it so good.

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Tiger Global was ripping $100 million checks into everything in sight. Not wanting to be left behind, other big hedge funds dumped cash out of helicopters, buying everything in sight.

The bet: that buying into a startup that would IPO soon was a sure thing.

The price would go up in those last few years in the private markets. The hedge fund would take home princely gains, and all would be right with the world.

Cue that record scratch sound effect…

“The game done changed.”
“The game the same. Just got more fierce.”
The Wire

Funding for late stage startups no longer exists. Period.

Think I’m exaggerating? Look at this chart from Crunchbase:

Series C funding has dropped from $10 billion to effectively zero in April. OpenAI might be the only company that can actually raise.

Many of the biggest late stage investors are no longer investing. Period.

I haven’t seen Tiger in a late stage deal in a long time. Same goes for the other big funds.

In general, I see almost no late stage deals. What few I do see, may fail.

I hear that even if Tiger invested a fortune in your company, you cannot get them on the phone. Whoever led the investment may be gone.

I cannot verify that, and it may not be true, so take it with a grain of salt.

When I do see the big hedge funds in a deal today (rare), it’s always early stage. I think they’ll make the same mistakes there too.

But what about all that dry powder?

VC funds are sitting on billions they have raised but not deployed. Surely startups can grab a little of that, right?

Not so fast.

“This idea that there’s tons of dry powder sitting out there, I think is a myth. Or maybe it’s there but there’s no willingness to deploy it.”
David Sacks

The Limited Partners who put money into the VC fund may be telling it to pull back. Or maybe they’re not even meeting their commitments at all.

Get to breakeven and live to fight (and raise) another day. That’s the best choice for late stage companies today — and most early stage companies too!

You cannot count on fundraising right now. If you do count on it, you could quickly cease to exist.

For late stage companies making tens or hundreds of millions in revenue, getting to breakeven should be no problem. But many refuse to do it.

“What steps were taken to cut costs before you just went to the investors to pony up more money?
David Sacks

That’s the question every investor is asking!

I don’t do late stage. But when one of my companies isn’t meeting targets and is running out of money, I want to know what they did to cut burn.

If they didn’t do enough, I question the founder’s leadership. And I close the checkbook.

“Management has told you they’re incapable of running this business, this concern, in a thoughtful way.”
Jason Calacanis

Or in other words, this company is going to be a 0 anyway. No sense putting more money in.

Sound harsh? Yeah, it is.

So’s business, sometimes.

What do you think of today’s funding market? Leave a comment and let us know!

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Down Rounds Everywhere

From Seed to $10M ARR

VC Whiners

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Reversing Aging in Primates

April 25, 2023

Researchers have reversed some signs of aging in mice. But it had never been done in primates — until now.

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Age reversal works in primates to restore vision. Announced by my collaborator Dr. Bruce Ksander & @lifebiosciences. Next up: age reversal in humans.
How’s that @elonmusk? 🚀https://t.co/qLCixcbPE0 1/10… pic.twitter.com/ZQUxz5Rymb
— David Sinclair (@davidasinclair) April 24, 2023

In what appears to be a major scientific breakthrough, Life Biosciences presented results showing the reversal of damage to the eye in non-human primates. From Life Bio’s press release:

Life Bio’s lead platform reprograms the epigenome of older animals to resemble that of younger animals via expression of three Yamanaka factors, Oct4, Sox2, and Klf4, collectively known as OSK. The approach partially reprograms cells to resemble a more youthful state while retaining their original cellular identity. Previous data from Life Bio and academic researchers, which were also presented at ARVO 2023, have shown that treatment with OSK reverses retinal aging and restores vision in old mice in a mouse model of glaucoma. Now, with the data presented today at ARVO, the company has demonstrated restoration of visual function and increased nerve axon survival in [a non-human primate] model that mimics human NAION deficits in retinal ganglion cells.

The researchers intentionally damaged the eyes of primates with lasers. Gruesome, I know.

Then, they gave a series of injections that used Yamanaka factors to reprogram the cells, reversing the damage.

Similar eye problems can occur in humans, often associated with age. If researchers can reverse them in non-human primates, perhaps humans are next.

Professor David Sinclair of Harvard Medical School co-founded Life Bio. Sinclair’s lab did something similar in mice, published in Nature in 2020.

The recent Life Bio results are a corporate press release, not a peer reviewed study. But given this team’s track record, I’d bet the publication is coming any day now.

Consider the path of this research. First it’s in a test tube, then a mouse, then a monkey.
We’re getting closer and closer to humans.

Of course, this result is only about eyes. But if a few injections can fix that, what else can they fix?

Moreover, we’re seeing rapid progress on two fronts: genetics and AI. Where might this lead?

Perhaps in the near future, humans will live to be 250 years old. Throughout our lifetimes, we’ll be 100X more capable, thanks to our AI assistants.

And when medicine can no longer keep us going, we upload our consciousness to our preferred cloud provider and, in a sense, live forever.

That’s a future I look forward to.

What do you think is the future of longevity? Leave a comment and let us know!

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Reversing the Aging Process in Mouse Eyes… and Maybe Someday, Us?

Let’s Double the Human Population

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Photo: “Close-Up of the Human Eye – Primer plano del ojo humano” by Hugo Quintero is licensed under CC BY 2.0.

Down Rounds Everywhere

April 24, 2023

“It’s an absolute bloodbath.”
Cameron Lester, Jefferies.

Down rounds in unicorn startups are everywhere in today’s funding crunch. Should we be worried?

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From a report out this morning in Bloomberg:

Toward the end of 2022, down rounds hit near five-year highs, according to research firm Prequin. And early data for the first quarter shows roughly 7.5% of all venture funding rounds in US were down rounds, according to PitchBook — a number it expects will climb. High-profile companies like financial giant Stripe Inc., Swedish payments startup Klarna Bank AB and security firm Snyk have already taken valuation cuts, and others like Blockchain.com are said to be in talks to do the same.

Down rounds feel rotten.

You’re no longer uppy and to the righty. Founders and employees could lose millions in paper gains. Investors’ performance takes a hit.

Sounds scary right? Well, it’s about to get worse:

“We expect down rounds, especially toward the second half of this year, to really pick up,” said PitchBook analyst Kyle Stanford.

Many advise companies that a down round is better than no round, and they should take the money at whatever terms available.

I disagree.

Big, late-stage startups could reach profitability. Then, they have no need to raise. If they choose to do so, it will be on their own terms.

But that’s hard!

Sure it is. No one enjoys layoffs.

Okay, maybe Mark Zuckerberg.

But if a billion dollar business cannot stop losing money, is it a viable business? How could a company supposedly be worth so much but completely unable to turn a profit, even of $1?

Reaching profitability is a great exercise for any business. If your gross margins are negative, you’ll find out in a hurry.

Finding out your business isn’t viable is hard. But at least you know.

Then, you have a chance to retool it before it’s too late.

You also have a chance to grow into an enduring, highly profitable public company. That’s our goal — right?

Perhaps not.

For too many startups during the bull market, fundraising became an end in itself. They forgot about building a viable business because they didn’t need to!

After all, there was always another round coming.

Those days are over. And good riddance.

But we investors can’t blame founders. We enabled them, every step of the way.

The past is the past. What matters today is to build and fund viable businesses that become major, enduring companies.

Anything else is noise.

How do you view down rounds? Leave a comment and let us know!

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From Seed to $10M ARR

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Fasting for a 53 Pound Weight Loss

April 21, 2023

Did anyone not get fat during COVID?

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I know I did. With snacking one of the few activities still permissible by law, I ballooned up to 219 pounds by the summer of 2021.

Little things show you it’s gone too far.

Bending over to tie my shoes was no picnic. Ahh….picnics….

I knew I had to make a change. And while moderation can be a tough balance, you know what’s pretty simple?

Eating nothing.

I experimented with various fasting schedules until I found one that resulted in weight loss, week after week.

Here’s how I did it:

Schedule

Sunday: Skip breakfast and eat dinner only. (I’m not really into lunch.)

Monday: Fast all day.

Tuesday: Eat a normal, moderate diet.

Wednesday: Same.

Thursday: Fast all day.

Friday: Cheat day!

I eat as much as I want all day, including my favorite foods. Cookies, ice cream, chips, you name it.

But those foods are off limits the rest of the week.

Consuming a lot of calories one day per week can keep your metabolism high. It tells your body not to go into “starvation mode” and expend as little energy as possible to survive.

After all, the feast is coming!

I find including a cheat day makes it much easier for me to eat healthy the rest of the week.

It’s not that I can never have cookies. Just not until Friday.

Saturday: Eat a normal, moderate diet.

Workouts

I also work out five times a week. I generally do 4 cardio sessions of 30 minutes each and a strength session of about 30 minutes.

I try to put as many workouts as I can on fast days. Fasting and cardio together may improve longevity.

Electrolyte Supplementation

The key to fasting is keeping electrolyte levels in a healthy range. When your electrolytes get low, your life sucks.

You’re tired, your muscles ache, and your heart can race. Just trust me, it’s not pleasant.

So I never fast without electrolyte supplementation. I like to consume 4-6 eight ounce glasses of electrolyte replacement drink per day.

I usually buy a powdered electrolyte mix from Dollar General, which works great. I’ve also had good results with Liquid IV and Pedialyte.

Isn’t Fasting Dangerous?

Actually, fasting has a ton of health benefits.

In addition to weight loss, you can improve insulin resistance and immune response. You may even live longer too!

But of course, everyone’s body is different. Discussing it with your doctor is always a good idea.

Wrap-Up

If you’re getting chubby, you probably have a hard time with portion sizes. I do too!

That’s the magical thing about fasting. Portion sizes are easy.

Zero!

You also have a ton of free time to work, enjoy the outdoors, and pursue hobbies. It’s amazing how time consuming cooking, eating, and clean-up can be.

If you give it a shot, let me know how it goes! And when your fast is over, get one of these. 🙂

Have you tried fasting? Why or why not?

More on Fundrise in this post.

If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

Misfits Market

I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order.