Tremendous

An angel investor's take on life and business

  • Meet My Latest Investment: Perfectly

    The best engineers won’t apply to your company. They already have jobs. But now,
    you can use AI to find them and bring them onboard.

    Perfectly messages ideal candidates using AI. It learns about their skills, then sets
    up interviews for you with the best engineers.

    Within 24 hours, you have 5-10 excellent candidates delivered to your Slack. It
    could take weeks or months for a recruiting agency to do this.

    Perfectly does an incredible job of finding the right candidate. The key to its power
    is the recommendation engine.

    The founders of Perfectly built the hottest recommendation engine in tech: the
    TikTok algorithm. Now, they’re using what they learned at TiKTok to find you the
    best engineers.

    Other platforms just manage candidates, making you contact them yourself. This slows you down and limits the number of candidates you can evaluate.

    Perfectly automates everything and just gives you great candidates to interview
    one-on-one.

    Perfectly is already working with many highly successful startups, like Corgi
    and Giga. Perfectly helps them hire great people faster. This gives them an edge on
    their competitors.

    Perfectly is one of the fastest growing companies I’ve ever invested in. That shows you how hard the team is working and how great their product is.

    Try Perfectly and hire great engineers faster than anywhere else!

    Note: I’m heading to Japan later today! For the next few weeks, I’ll only be posting on the blog occasionally. We’ll be back to our regular schedule at the end of May.

    Thanks for reading and be on the lookout for some fun photos from Tokyo!

    More on tech:

    Meet My Latest Investment: Cryopets

    I Put Elon’s New Grok 4.3 Beta to the Test — Here’s Why It’s My Favorite Model So Far

    How Fake Investors Scam Founders: 5 Red Flags

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Wispr Flow

    I used this app every single day to dictate to my computer, I’m even dictating this text using Wispr Flow! It’s way better than Apple’s native dictation.

    My productivity is up about 25% since I started dictating rather than typing. I’m also less tired and stressed.

    Get a free month of Wispr Flow Pro here!

  • Yes, You Can Raise VC Money in ‘Unsexy’ Areas — Here’s What Investors Want

    Every investor is throwing money at AI. But if you’re building in an unsexy area, is raising money even possible?

    A frustrated consumer hardware founder recently posed this question to Reddit. He’s seeing VC’s rip huge checks into AI while he’s struggling to raise any money at all.

    But there’s good news: investors are still investing in consumer hardware and other non-AI startups! Here’s what I look for in these companies…

    Founders With a Killer Track Record

    For any startup, by far the most important factor is the founder. I look for founders that have achieved something exceptional. 

    Let’s take the example of that consumer hardware startup….

    Ideally, they were involved with creating a successful consumer hardware device in the past. But exceptional can come in a lot of forms.

    Maybe the founder was a child chess prodigy. Maybe he built a car wash business to a $1 million a year in revenue as a teenager. 

    I recently invested in a fellow who led the team behind the world’s first commercial spacewalk. Now that’s an exceptional founder!

    A Team with Technical Chops

    In addition to some exceptional accomplishment, I’m looking for teams with real engineering ability. I want teams that are mostly or entirely technical. 

    For consumer hardware, I want to see people with backgrounds in hardware and software engineering. You usually need both to make a device work. 

    If the team is all idea guys, on the other hand, that’s a red flag. They just don’t have the skills to make their vision a reality. 

    The Prototype

    A great team is a wonderful starting point, but I also want to see a basic prototype.

    I’m definitely not expecting a polished device that’s ready for market. A prototype is more like a sketch…a gesture toward what the product will be.

    I’m expecting janky. I’m expecting wires all over the place.

    I just want to see the founders actually building something. 

    Wrap-Up

    If you’re a founder building in an area that isn’t hot, raising money might seem impossible.

    But you don’t need every investor to believe in your vision. You only need a handful. 

    Gather a team of hardcore engineers. Hack together a prototype. Then start contacting VC’s.

    You might be surprised how much money you raise!

    More on tech: 

    Meet My Latest Investment: Verustruct

    Three Management Secrets from Jensen Huang

    Elon Musk (Part 1): Overcoming the Odds

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Wispr Flow

    I used this app every single day to dictate to my computer, I’m even dictating this text using Wispr Flow! It’s way better than Apple’s native dictation.

    My productivity is up about 25% since I started dictating rather than typing. I’m also less tired and stressed.

    Get a free month of Wispr Flow Pro here!

  • What If AI Guided You Instead of Just Giving Answers? — Testing Gemini Guided Learning

    What if AI didn’t just hand you the answer…but actually taught you how to find it? Gemini Guided Learning is a great way to do just that.

    I tested Guided Learning this morning, having it prep me for my Japan trip this week. It gave me useful, realistic practice that will help me a lot during my visit! 

    Let me show you what this thing can do…

    (To access Guided Learning, click the “plus” sign in the Gemini app, go to More Tools, and choose Guided Learning.)

    A Common Freeze Up Point: “Do You Have a Point Card?”

    I had Guided Learning run me through some common phrases in a scenario I’m sure to encounter: buying treats at a convenience store. Gemini began by asking a question that often confuses foreigners like me…

    “Do you have a point card?”

    I’ve had clerks ask me this before at stores in Japan.

    “I wasn’t planning for this,” I thought. “Now what?”

    But thanks to Gemini, I’ll be ready. “Nai desu” (ないです in Japanese script), I responded, a polite way to say I don’t have one.

    Gemini confirmed that this was the correct response. Whew!

    Getting My Delicious Snack Heated Up

    Next, Gemini prepared me for another tricky scenario: asking the store clerk to heat a food item.

    It’s amazing you can even do this! Most American convenience stores wouldn’t be bothered.

    I use the phrase “Hai, atatamete kudasai” (“はい、温めてください” in Japanese script). Gemini’s verdict: I nailed it!

    One of the most fun things about learning a language is when you say the right phrase and something actually happens in the world. Utter the right syllables, and the clerk heats up your chicken.

    It’s like sliding a key into a lock. Do it just right, and a new world opens. 

    Finding the Bathroom

    Anywhere you go, eventually you’ll need to find the bathroom.

    In most Japanese konbini, it’s not hard to find. It’s usually near the front, and you’ll see it on your own.

    But just in case, let’s practice asking where the bathroom is.

    I hit Gemini with the phrase “toire wa doko desu ka” and even put it in Japanese script for extra points, which is “トイレはどこですか?”

    Gemini confirmed I had the right phrase. Success! 

    Wrap-Up

    When I chat with my friends about AI, they often say AI is going to do all our thinking for us and make us stupid. I disagree.

    Tools like Gemini Guided Learning are one way AI will make us smarter. Gemini did a great job of guiding me toward answers rather than giving them to me.

    Along with Guided lLearning, I’m using Gemini Live’s voice feature to practice Japanese speaking. I’ve had full conversations with it lasting up to 30 minutes. It’s an incredible learning tool!

    Where I live in northern New Jersey, there are few, if any, Japanese speakers. It’s hard to find anyone to practice with.

    But with tools like Gemini, I can practice any time. 

    Try Gemini Guided Learning and learn anything you want, absolutely free! 

    More on tech:

    I Put Elon’s New Grok 4.3 Beta to the Test — Here’s Why It’s My Favorite Model So Far

    Moonshot Drops Kimi K2.6 – Cheap, Powerful, and Worth Trying for Builders

    Grok Imagine Quality Mode: Jaw-Dropping Images, But Text Still Struggles

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Wispr Flow

    I used this app every single day to dictate to my computer, I’m even dictating this text using Wispr Flow! It’s way better than Apple’s native dictation.

    My productivity is up about 25% since I started dictating rather than typing. I’m also less tired and stressed.

    Get a free month of Wispr Flow Pro here!

  • Europe’s AI Window Is Slamming Shut – And There’s No Plan B

    The window for Europe to catch up in AI isn’t just closing — it’s slamming shut. Europe doesn’t have any of the fundamental inputs for AI: 

    • Major AI companies
    • Companies large enough to invest hundreds of billions
    • Rare earths
    • Chip fabs
    • Hydrocarbons to power data centers (aside from Norway)

    Let’s zoom in on two critical factors: money and talent. Here how Europe is falling behind on both…

    The Capital Drought

    The largest company in America (and the world) is NVIDIA, with a market cap of $5.1 trillion. 

    The largest company in Europe is ASML, market cap $563 billion.

    America has eight separate trillion dollar tech companies. Europe has zero. 

    No company in Europe can match the AI infrastructure spending of the U.S. hyperscalers. American companies are buying up all the chips, energy and data. 

    If European governments invested a huge amount of money in AI, they might be able to compete with the U.S. hyperscalers. But burdened with massive welfare states and aging populations, there’s no sign that Europe plans to make such an investment. 

    The Brain Drain

    Peter Steinberger is the most impressive AI builder Europe has produced in years. He created Openclaw singlehandedly.

    And he’s leaving.

    Peter is moving to the United States after accepting a job at OpenAI.  He cited strict labor regulations in Europe as a big reason for his move. 

    By law, Europeans aren’t allowed to work the 6-7 day weeks that all the top American labs are. Not even if they want to! 

    Peter couldn’t build a competitive startup if people can’t work long hours. So, he had no choice but to leave Europe. 

    A guy like Peter could help Europe catch up in AI. If Europe cannot retain Peter or the handful of others like him, they have no chance.

    An American probably would have built his own company. But in Europe, the only viable path was hitting Eject, joining OpenAI, and going to the United States. 

    A Subordinate Future

    Unable to create superintelligence of its own, Europe will have to rent it, either from the United States or China. That puts Europe in a subordinate position.

    Take a breakthrough like the Anthropic Mythos model. Right now, Anthropic is helping major companies patch security holes that Mythos uncovered.

    What if the EU angers the United States on trade or security? America may stop Anthropic from offering those security patches to European companies, leaving them exposed.

    This would be bad policy. But that doesn’t mean it won’t happen. 

    Wrap-Up

    Europe can’t retain its best AI builders. It can’t form the capital to invest in building superintelligence. 

    Without strong builders and the capital they need, Europe is sunk.

    I know it’s fashionable to hate on Europe these days. But honestly, I don’t see a way out for them.

    If the EU heavily deregulated its technology industry and labor market, they might still have a chance to catch up. But there are no signs they have the will to do so. 

    As Europe stands still, the U.S. and China are accelerating every single day. The window to catch up is closing.

    More on tech: 

    Why European Founders Should Move to America

    Peter Thiel: America Is Winning — And Pulling Away from the World

    I Put Elon’s New Grok 4.3 Beta to the Test — Here’s Why It’s My Favorite Model So Far

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Wispr Flow

    I used this app every single day to dictate to my computer, I’m even dictating this text using Wispr Flow! It’s way better than Apple’s native dictation.

    My productivity is up about 25% since I started dictating rather than typing. I’m also less tired and stressed.

    Get a free month of Wispr Flow Pro here!

  • Moonshot Drops Kimi K2.6 – Cheap, Powerful, and Worth Trying for Builders

    Moonshot just dropped a new, more powerful Kimi: K2.6. I tested it this morning, and it’s the best open source model I’ve used yet.

    Moonshot claims that Kimi outperforms GPT-5.4 and Claude Opus 4.6 on some benchmarks. Better yet, Kimi is dirt cheap to run, making it a popular choice for developers. 

    I ran Kimi through 3 difficult tests this morning: researching startup funding rounds, prepping me for a meeting, and helping me study Japanese. Overall, Kimi turned in a strong performance, although it struggled with some web search tasks. 

    Let’s see what the new Kimi can do! 

    Round #1: Researching the Cursor Seed Round

    SpaceX recently agreed to acquire Cursor for $60 billion. Almost every seed investor in the world is slapping their forehead, wishing they’d been in on it… including me!

    I’m curious: what did the company look like at the time? Maybe studying such a successful company can help me find the next Cursor. 

    Cursor had already passed $1 million ARR by the seed round…unusually strong traction. 

    Cursor also had an exceptional founder. CEO Michael Truell had interned at Google in high school, which is highly unusual. 

    The deal wasn’t cheap — around $60 million. But especially in 2023, seed stage companies with over $1M in ARR were quite rare. 

    Cursor was a hot startup with serious traction and a great founder. It had every factor I look for.

    The price was steep. But that shows the importance of focusing on median entry price, rather than an absolute price limit. Expensive deals make sense occasionally, so long as they’re balanced out by cheaper ones. 

    Kimi did a great job, citing reliable sources and giving me the info I wanted. I’m giving this round an A! 

    Round #2: Stalking a Founder 

    Can Kimi can help me find the next Michael Truell? Next week, I’m meeting a fellow who might fit the bill…

    This young man has a very interesting startup in robotics. I asked Kimi to tell me about his background and any exceptional achievements.

    With a little help, Kimi pulled some interesting info (name redacted). 

    He managed to work in ROTC and run a startup at the same time. That’s impressive! I’m looking forward to meeting him. 

    Kimi found useful info, but only with a lot of coaxing. Kimi claimed it couldn’t access Linkedin, so I had to screenshot his LinkedIn and upload it. 

    I gave the same prompt to Grok, and it found a bunch of information on the founder right away.

    I’m giving Kimi a C for this round.

    Round #3: Kimi the Language Learning Coach

    It’s less than a week until I ship off to Tokyo! I’m desperately trying to brush up on my Japanese. Can Kimi help? 

    Kimi gave great advice. It suggested I listen to the Nihongo con Teppei podcast and repeat everything he’s saying.

    I pulled up a short video of Teppei’s and tried it. It was a wonderful way to get myself speaking and thinking in Japanese.

    The only thing I didn’t like about Kimi’s response was that it didn’t give me a link to the podcast. I still had to Google it.

    Still, Kimi was super helpful! I’ll give this round an A- 

    Wrap-Up

    I’m giving Kimi K2.6 a B- overall in my testing. It’s light years ahead of K2.5, which I gave a D in February.

    Kimi is good at analyzing information, but sometimes struggles in web searches. The hosted version of Kimi definitely isn’t the best model around.

    But for a cheap, open-source model to use in your application, Kimi is a great choice. 

    A lot of startups begin with a frontier model like Claude or Grok and get the output they want. Then, they use a cheaper model and try to get the same results at scale. 

    Kimi is an excellent choice for that cheaper model. If you’re building an AI, give the new Kimi K2.6 a shot! 

    More on tech: 

    I Put Elon’s New Grok 4.3 Beta to the Test — Here’s Why It’s My Favorite Model So Far

    NVIDIA Nemotron: Great for RAG, Weak on Web Search

    Kimi K2.5 Is Slow and Stupid

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Wispr Flow

    I used this app every single day to dictate to my computer, I’m even dictating this text using Wispr Flow! It’s way better than Apple’s native dictation.

    My productivity is up about 25% since I started dictating rather than typing. I’m also less tired and stressed.

    Get a free month of Wispr Flow Pro here!

  • I Put Elon’s New Grok 4.3 Beta to the Test — Here’s Why It’s My Favorite Model So Far

    Elon has quietly released Grok 4.3 Beta, xAI’s most powerful model yet. I tested it this morning, and it’s the best model I’ve ever used.

    I put 4.3 Beta through a grueling series of tests this morning. I had it analyze 5,000 venture deals, predict the future of the real estate market, even find under-the-radar travel recs for my trip to Tokyo.

    Elon’s new model excelled across the board. Let me show you what the new Grok can do…

    Round #1: Real Estate Investment Outlook

    High interest rates have meant a tough couple of years for real estate. That includes my Fundrise portfolio, which invests in housing across America. 

    What do the next couple of years have in store? Let’s ask Grok… 

    Grok predicts that Fundrise will see 8-15% returns over the next couple of years. This would be a big upshift from the low single-digit returns of late.

    Gradually declining interest rates should support real estate. Strong residential demand also plays into Fundrise’s strategy, which is heavy on multifamily. 

    Grok cited solid sources like CBRE and Reuters. Its analysis was clear and easy to understand. 

    Compared to the prior model, Grok 4.3 produced a more readable response. It’s shorter with better formatting, making it easier to digest. 

    I’m giving this round an A!

    Round #2: Planning My Trip to Tokyo

    A week from today, I’m getting on a plane to Tokyo! Lately, it’s all I can think about.

    It will be my first visit to Japan in six years. Ever since I first visited in 2014, Tokyo has felt like my home away from home.

    Can Grok recommend some awesome, under-the-radar spots for me to try? 

    I’ve actually been to around half these spots, including Todoroki and Hamarikyu! In each case, Japanese people brought me there.

    This tells me that Grok’s recommendations are superb. They’re the type of under-the-radar spots actual Tokyo residents recommend.

    The only flaw is a lack of dining options. Grok recommended some beautiful natural areas, but not much in the way of food.

    I’m giving this response an A-. 

    Round #3: Analyzing 5,000 Venture Deals

    Back to business…

    For the final round, I gave Grok 4.3 a difficult task: analyzing the nearly 5,000 deals I’ve passed on in the last couple of years. Can Grok find mistakes and opportunities to improve?

    I fed Grok a monster spreadsheet that includes details on every deal. Here’s what it found… 

    Grok thinks my approach is solid, carefully hewing to my thesis. I’ve systematically filtered out companies without builder founders, products or customers.

    My biggest opportunity to improve: tracking the close calls.

    Now and then, I find a company that almost meets my bar for investment. I haven’t systematically tracked the outcomes of those companies. That’s something I plan to do more of, assisted by AI. 

    Grok took its time, running analysis for around eight minutes. Still, that’s nothing for the amount of data I threw at it!

    Grok’s analysis was thorough and helpful. I’m giving this round an A+. 

    Wrap-Up

    Grok 4.3 Beta earns an A overall in my testing.

    It’s not a quantum leap from Grok 4.20. But its analysis is tighter, its formatting better, and its outputs more usable. 

    That makes Grok 4.30 Beta the best AI model I’ve used yet. If you’re looking for a frontier model, Grok 4.3 Beta is it. 

    For now, 4.3 Beta is only available to paid Supergrok subscribers. Plans start at $30 a month. It’s not available via API yet, but I expect that to be released soon.

    Everyone is excited about Anthropic right now. But xAI is building some incredible stuff in the shadows. 

    Don’t be surprised Elon if leapfrogs Dario soon…

    More on tech: 

    Grok Imagine Quality Mode: Jaw-Dropping Images, But Text Still Struggles

    Meta’s New Model is Worth $60 Billion — But Struggles in Real World Testing

    NVIDIA Nemotron: Great for RAG, Weak on Web Search

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Wispr Flow

    I used this app every single day to dictate to my computer, I’m even dictating this text using Wispr Flow! It’s way better than Apple’s native dictation.

    My productivity is up about 25% since I started dictating rather than typing. I’m also less tired and stressed.

    Get a free month of Wispr Flow Pro here!

  • NVIDIA Nemotron: Great for RAG, Weak on Web Search

    NVIDIA sells $200 billion worth of chips every year. But Jensen isn’t stopping there. NVIDIA recently dropped its most powerful AI model ever. 

    This morning I tested Nemotron 3 Super, NVIDIA’s most sophisticated model. Nemotron is designed to let us build and run powerful agents cheaply.

    Nemotron does well if you give it data (also known as Retrieval Augmented Generation, or RAG). But it struggles with complex jobs and finding data on its own. 

    Let me show you where Nemotron can help and where you’re better off looking elsewhere…

    Round #1: Finding the Next Unicorn on Product Hunt

    Several times a week, I troll Product Hunt looking for the next great startup. Can Nemotron automate this? 

    Nemotron wouldn’t help, saying that it can’t browse the internet. For a model designed to create agents, this seems like a huge problem! 

    You can add a web browsing tool yourself. But it would be much easier if Nemotron included it automatically. 

    What’s more, Nemotron’s knowledge cutoff is July 2024, nearly two years ago. This makes it harder to build useful tools. 

    I love Jensen, but I have to give this round an F. 

    Round #2: Researching Drone Technology

    Earlier today, I chatted with a founder making very innovative drone motors. His motors don’t use any rare earth minerals.

    English major that I am, I don’t understand how existing drone motors use rare earths. Can Nemotron explain?

    Nemotron gave a great breakdown: the rare earths are used in a magnet that the motor needs to function.

    Nemotron’s explanation was a little technical. I asked a few follow-up questions, and it did a good job of breaking things down more simply.

    But there’s one big problem: Nemotron didn’t cite any sources. The information sounds plausible, but I can’t verify it.

    This makes it hard to rely on Nemotron. I’m giving this round a B-minus. 

    Round #3: Automating Intros to Startups

    Yesterday, I met a really cool biomanufacturing startup. Which investors in my network should I introduce them to?

    I fed Nemotron my spreadsheet of 75 top investors. Nemotron did a great job of looking through the list and finding investors interested in deep tech.

    When I give Nemotron all the data it needs, it parses it very well. You can take advantage of that in applications you build, RAG-ing Nemotron and getting outputs cheaply.

    I’m giving this round an A. 

    Wrap-Up

    I’m giving Nemotron a C- overall. 

    Nemotron really deserves two grades: an F for tasks requiring web search and an A for parsing data you provide. 

    Nemotron is way behind frontier models. But because it’s cheap to run, Nemotron could be a good choice for your application. 

    Just be sure to give it very specific instructions and lots of custom data. Then, you can get the output you need at lower cost. 

    I’m excited to see what Jensen does with Nemotron. Tenacious as he is, he just might score a come-from-behind victory.

    More on tech:

    Google Drops New Gemini macOS App — A for Easy Tasks, F for Complex Jobs

    Grok Imagine Quality Mode: Jaw-Dropping Images, But Text Still Struggles

    Meta’s New Model is Worth $60 Billion — But Struggles in Real World Testing

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Wispr Flow

    I used this app every single day to dictate to my computer, I’m even dictating this text using Wispr Flow! It’s way better than Apple’s native dictation.

    My productivity is up about 25% since I started dictating rather than typing. I’m also less tired and stressed.

    Get a free month of Wispr Flow Pro here!

  • Google Drops New Gemini macOS App — A for Easy Tasks, F for Complex Jobs

    Google just dropped a new Gemini app for macOS. It excels on simple tasks like summarizing documents. But for complex jobs, Gemini is surprisingly weak.

    This morning, I ran the new Gemini app through a three round test. Let me show you where this app is strong, where it disappoints, and why Google is falling behind…

    Round #1: Summarizing a Pitch Deck

    I look at thousands of pitch decks every year. Can Gemini summarize them and lighten the load? 

    This afternoon, I’m meeting with a fascinating startup working on biomanufacturing. Gemini did a great job of summarizing the deck (key details redacted). 

    Gemini pulled out everything I want to know, including what the company does, the founders’ backgrounds, and terms of the raise. I love how it formatted the response using bullets and bold text to make it more readable.

    I’m giving this round an A! 

    Round #2: Practicing Japanese For My Upcoming Trip

    Next week, I’m off to Japan! I couldn’t be more excited! It’s my first time since COVID.

    I’ve studied Japanese since 2014, but I’m getting a little rusty. Can Gemini help me practice? 

    I told Gemini to give me some common signs I’ll see in Japan, along with English translations.

    It gave me a useful list, including signs for Entrance and Exit at train stations and Open and Closed at stores. Unfortunately, the text is quite small and there’s no way to make it bigger.

    On mobile, I can actually speak Japanese with Gemini Live. That function isn’t in the MacOS app yet. 

    I’m giving this round a B-. Once Google adds Gemini Live to the macOS app, I’ll bump it up to an A.

    Round #3: Searching Gmail for Company Updates

    For our final round, I gave Gemini a challenge: running a very complex search in my Gmail.

    I want to see if any of my investments haven’t sent an update in the last nine months. But I don’t want to manually search each company.

    Gemini failed me completely on this task.

    I used the Pro model and let the search run for 10 minutes. Gemini didn’t produce any output. 

    Then, I tried it again on Fast mode. This time, Gemini gave me results. But they were completely incorrect! It flagged companies that just sent updates in the last few days.

    A year ago, this would’ve been too much to ask. But with the enormous investment in compute, I expect Gemini to be capable of more complex jobs by now. 

    I’m giving this round an F. 

    Wrap-Up

    I’m giving the new Gemini macOS app a C overall.

    It’s great for basic tasks like summarizing a PDF, but for anything more complicated, Gemini falls short.

    I can’t have a voice conversation with Gemini Live. The app can’t run complex searches on my email. 

    Gemini’s new app feels several months behind the cutting edge. It needs to work with multiple modalities and deeply integrate into my Google services. 

    Gemini has some great capabilities. But once again, Google is beginning to fall behind Anthropic and xAI. 

    Unless its next release is much more competitive, Google is in trouble.

    More on tech: 

    Grok Imagine Quality Mode: Jaw-Dropping Images, But Text Still Struggles

    Meta’s New Model is Worth $60 Billion — But Struggles in Real World Testing

    Gemma 4: Strong on Basic Tasks, Weak on Real Research

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Wispr Flow

    I used this app every single day to dictate to my computer, I’m even dictating this text using Wispr Flow! It’s way better than Apple’s native dictation.

    My productivity is up about 25% since I started dictating rather than typing. I’m also less tired and stressed.

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  • Peter Thiel: America Is Winning — And Pulling Away from the World

    Headlines scream “American decline.” Peter Thiel isn’t buying it. 

    In a panel discussion in Japan this week, Thiel argues that on technology, demographics, and economic dynamism, the U.S. isn’t just holding on — it’s pulling away.

    “On a relative basis, it seems to me that the U.S. is winning against the whole world.” Peter Thiel

    America Makes, The World Takes

    “… the technological future is still being built in the US.” – Peter Thiel

    AI is producing much of the world’s economic growth. But AI tools are only built in a handful of places.

    The United States is by far and away the leader. Every frontier model was built here. Almost every major technology company is based here. 

    China is a strong competitor, producing capable models like Kimi and Qwen, and innovative robotics projects like Unitree. But outside the US and China, most countries are spectators in the AI race.

    What important technology is being built in Germany, France, or Russia? France’s only significant AI company, Mistral, is dwarfed by Anthropic and OpenAI.

    America’s Demographic Edge: More Babies, More Immigrants, More Growth

    The U.S. fertility rate has slipped below replacement levels. But compared to many of our rivals, we’re producing babies at an incredible clip.

    Our current fertility rate is 1.6, versus less than 1 for China. China is beginning to shrink rapidly even as our population still grows.

    And what’s true of China is true of most major countries: Russia, Germany, England, all are producing far fewer children than the United States.  

    We’re also able to grow our population through immigration.

    China has no history of immigration. Their language is not spoken worldwide like English is, which makes it hard for immigrants to integrate.

    Wrap-Up

    America is growing and creating new technology at a pace no other country can match.

    We have problems, to be sure. Our debt is heavy. Our politics are fraught.

    Nonetheless, America is pulling away from the rest of the pack. If we continue to work hard and keep our markets and people free, we can prosper like never before. 

    “… I am not convinced that the US is in decline relative to the rest of the world.” – Peter Thiel

    Have a great weekend, everyone!

    More on tech: 

    Zero to One

    Three Management Secrets from Jensen Huang

    Three Lessons on Business from Warren Buffett

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Wispr Flow

    I used this app every single day to dictate to my computer, I’m even dictating this text using Wispr Flow! It’s way better than Apple’s native dictation.

    My productivity is up about 25% since I started dictating rather than typing. I’m also less tired and stressed.

    Get a free month of Wispr Flow Pro here!

  • Why Almost Every Investor Passed on DeepMind — And How to Spot the Next One

    Demis Hassabis pitched countless investors when he started DeepMind. Almost everyone said no. Why did these VC’s miss out on the opportunity of a lifetime? 

    “Finding initial funding for this was very hard,”  Demis later recalled. 

    Demis and DeepMind are leading the race to AGI. They won the 2024 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for their protein folding technology, AlphaFold. 

    Passing on DeepMind is one of the biggest misses ever. But when Demis was raising his first capital in 2010, most investors gave him the cold shoulder.

    That mistake was much far reasonable than it seems…

    Why They Passed

    As someone who looks at a couple thousand startups a year, I can give you some great reasons to pass on DeepMind:

    1. No product
    2. No revenue
    3. No path to revenue
    4. Founder has no experience

    Demis told a great story about inventing machines that can think. But how would he get the money to keep this business alive for the years it would take to reach that goal?

    Would I Have Invested in DeepMind?

    Demis is very smart — that would be obvious to anyone. But given the way I judge investments, I would have passed on DeepMind too.

    I’d love to tell you that I would have seen the future back in 2010 and written a huge check! But for a pre-revenue company with no real path to market?

    Not likely. 

    How Investors Can Get These Decisions Right — The Wildcard

    Passing on DeepMind was a huge mistake. 

    But if we rip checks into pre-revenue companies with no business strategy all the time, we’ll go broke. We’ll no longer be able to make investments. 

    How can we change our rules to capture the occasional moonshot like DeepMind, while avoiding some of the failures? 

    What if we gave ourselves a wildcard?

    Maybe 80-90% of our investments have traction or at least a path to market. We could reserve 10 to 20% of our capital for moonshots like DeepMind.

    How Investors Could’ve Seen DeepMind’s Potential at the Time

    Every company comes down to one factor: the founder.

    In 2010, Demis didn’t have much business experience. But he was exceptional in one way: he was a chess prodigy. 

    As a child, Demis was the second-highest-rated chess player on earth.

    He spent much of his youth traveling all over Europe for chess tournaments. He beat grandmasters decades older.

    When Elon Musk hires someone, he looks for evidence they’re exceptional in some area — any area. Demis was clearly exceptional in chess.

    The One Question I’ll Be Asking Founders From Now On

    To make sure we don’t miss this crucial fact, we can ask founders, “What achievements are you most proud of?”

    Demis would have probably mentioned his past as a chess champion. We’d know that, despite his lack of track record in startups, he’s achieved something big. 

    Judging talent like Elon does helps us make far better decisions. And sure enough, Elon was one of the first investors in DeepMind!

    I’m going to start asking founders this question. I can’t miss the next Demis. 

    Wrap-Up

    It’s easy to sit here in 2026 and call the VCs that passed on DeepMind idiots.

    But none of these people are stupid. Their decision was wrong, but it made sense at the time.

    We need to learn from their mistake. We need to adjust our rules so we don’t miss the next DeepMind. 

    The key is finding founders who have done something exceptional. For the next Demis, it’s worth breaking the rules.

    Would you have invested in DeepMind?

    More on tech:

    How OpenAI and Anthropic Will Crush Harvey and Legora

    How Ron Conway Landed His Investment in Google

    Speaking Portuguese to an AI — Google Translate Practice

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Wispr Flow

    I used this app every single day to dictate to my computer, I’m even dictating this text using Wispr Flow! It’s way better than Apple’s native dictation.

    My productivity is up about 25% since I started dictating rather than typing. I’m also less tired and stressed.

    Get a free month of Wispr Flow Pro here!