When I was growing up, nobody interrupted the President. At last night’s State of the Union, Democrats displayed a total lack of decorum.
Reps. Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib shouted, jeered, and pointed. Rep. Al Green disrupted the speech by holding up a sign.
The first time I saw someone disrupt a major presidential address, it was actually a Republican, Rep. Joe Wilson of South Carolina. He yelled out “You lie!” during President Obama’s address to a joint session of Congress in 2009.
I was shocked, as were many Americans. I’d never seen anything like it.
Now, it’s common.
Lack of respect is a bipartisan problem. It just happened to be a Republican speaking this year.
A lot of people hate Trump. I respect their opinion.
But let’s conduct ourselves with dignity. Let people speak without pointing and jeering.
When it’s our turn to speak, we can offer a great rebuttal!
I actually thought that the Democrat rebuttal, by Virginia governor Abigail Spanberger, was pretty good. She hit hard on affordability.
That’s the way to fight back: with reasoned argument.
In time, it’ll be a Democrat standing at that podium. On that day, Republicans should sit quietly and listen with respect.
When it’s over, they should feel free to argue their side.
We’re about to celebrate our 250th birthday as a country this summer. Let’s remember that whatever our politics, we’re all Americans.
Citrini’s AI doom report makes fun reading. But it’s wrong. Here are 6 reasons why…
Financial Collapse Would Cut AI Spend — In Citrini’s scenario, there is no brake on AI spending. But if AI causes economic collapse, all capital spending will grind to a halt.
Companies need to borrow hundreds of billions to build AI infrastructure. Good luck doing that in a frozen credit market.
Everything Gets Way Cheaper — If Citrini is right and AI causes a depression, prices will fall through the floor. Workers might be making less money, but they won’t need as much.
Citrini’s report actually mentions big falls in house prices. But they fail to consider that lower house prices mean you don’t need to earn as much.
NVIDIA Saves the Day — Citrini imagines a world with runaway AI spend. In that world, companies like NVIDIA and TSMC will shoot the lights out.
Guess who owns NVIDIA and TSMC? Those same white-collar workers that could be put out of their jobs.
They may not have work anymore, but many won’t need to work. Expect more workers to FIRE.
A New Wave of Founders — If AI makes us way more powerful, it will be much easier to start a business. Displaced workers will create a massive wave of new, AI-enabled companies.
So many of the costs of running a business will drop to zero. Legal, accounting, coding, all done by AI.
Why not start your own business?
Big Companies are Slow as Molasses — Citrini thinks that big companies will adopt AI agents next year. I’m guessing they never worked at a big company.
Enterprises can barely install SharePoint. Many of them are still on premise, 20 years into cloud computing.
Companies will adopt AI eventually. But this will play out over decades.
That gives workers a lot of time to adapt.
The UBI Way Out — Even if Citrini is right and AI destroys the economy, the average person will still make a living. It’ll just come from the government.
If AI destroys millions of jobs, the pressure for a UBI would be overwhelming. Already, politicians compete to see who can offer the most benefits!
Wrap-Up
Citrini is wrong. AI is not going to crash the economy.
But they are right that some people will be displaced. Many of them will get worse jobs than before.
Still, that scenario will take decades to play out. This gives us time to adapt.
Best of all, AI will create new opportunities we can’t even imagine.
Doomerism gets clicks. But long term, optimists win.
Gemini ruled the roost until Elon dropped Grok 4.20 Beta. This morning, I tested them head-to-head. Grok clobbered Gemini.
Here’s why Grok now reigns supreme…
Pushing Grok and Gemini to Their Limits
I gave them both the same prompt, asking them to analyze the likelihood of war with Iran. I made the prompt complex, instructing the models to analyze numerous factors.
Here’s the prompt I used:
“How likely do you think a war between the United States and Iran is? Consider these factors:
The likelihood of US strikes
The likelihood of a ground invasion
The likely role of Israel
The effects on the Iranian regime
The effects on the world economy
The effects on the world geopolitical and security situation
Polymarket and Kalshi assessments of what will happen in Iran re. strikes, war and possible regime change.”
Let’s see what these guys can do!
Gemini’s Response: Solid, But Lacking in Specifics
Gemini 3.0 Pro predicts that the United States will likely strike Iran from the air. But it views the odds of a ground invasion as minimal.
Gemini did a good job of explaining how conflict with Iran has already pushed up oil prices. Finally, it notes that prediction markets expect strikes and the possible exit of Khamenei.
Gemini doesn’t quantify its assessment of the risks of strikes or full-scale war. It simply says high, low, or very low. I would have liked to see a more specific answer.
But there’s a bigger problem with Gemini’s response: it didn’t cite a single source. I’m sure it crawled many websites, but I have no idea which.
How can I rely on Gemini’s response? Is it accurate, or is it just making stuff up?
I used the “double check this response” feature, which made Gemini reveal its sources. It provided about a dozen websites that seemed to be high quality.
But I shouldn’t have to use some special feature in order to get citations.
Overall, Gemini’s response was respectable. But it should’ve been more specific and cited its sources.
Grok 4.20 Beta gave a thorough, nuanced response. Grok agrees with Gemini that the United States will probably launch airstrikes on Iran soon, but will avoid a major war.
Grok even highlighted certain sites in Iran that we are most likely to bomb. It’s like having my own defense analyst on call!
Grok predicts that Israel will join the strikes. It gives even odds that Khamenei will be gone by the end of the year.
Grok answered every aspect of my prompt beautifully. It even cited 288 sources versus Gemini’s dozen.
And it took only 27 seconds!
A human would take weeks to read and synthesize 288 sources. By then, the whole situation would have changed!
These days, AI models aren’t just automating what humans do. They’re doing new things we couldn’t possibly do.
The only thing I didn’t like: it’s hard to tell which of Grok’s statements corresponds to which source. I’d like to see numbered footnotes instead of just a list of sources.
Still, Grok did an incredible job overall!
Wrap-Up
Grok won this head-to-head test handily. I’m crowning Grok 4.20 Beta the best AI model in the world.
Before the Grok 4.20 Beta upgrade, my testing put Gemini 3.0 Pro as the world’s best. But the tables have turned.
I’ve never seen any other model search as widely, deeply, and quickly as Grok 4.20 Beta. For $30/month, subscribing to Supergrok and getting access is a steal.
I’m excited to see how Gemini responds!
If you’re in the NYC area, be careful out there! We’re at 7 inches and counting here at Chez Francis. Can’t wait for spring!
Elon just dropped Grok 4.20 Beta. This model blows away anything else I’ve ever used.
From speed of search to depth of reasoning, the new Grok shines. Let me show you what this thing can do…
Round #1: Energy and the AI Build-Out
Yesterday, I met with an interesting startup that’s helping industrial facilities cut power consumption. Since AI data centers are power hungry, this could be the right company at the right time.
But how constrained is AI by energy supply? Let’s ask Grok…
Grok analyzed 289 sources in just over a minute!
Grok explained that the build of new data centers is already constrained by a lack of power, especially in the key Northern Virginia region. Sounds like we need that energy efficiency startup even more than I thought!
Grok’s response reads like it was written by an analyst with years of experience. A report like this would have taken a human days.
Grok did it in 79 seconds. I’m giving this round an A+!
Round #2: Handicapping a War in Iran
America has more military personnel in the Middle East than at any time since the invasion of Iraq, when I was in high school. Are we about to go to war with Iran?
I ask Grok to give its own assessment and include predictions from Kalshi and Polymarket.
Grok did an incredibly sophisticated analysis. It explained that the buildup is much smaller than in 2003, even if it’s the largest in recent years.
Kalshi and Polymarket expect limited US strikes on Iran, but not a full-scale invasion. Grok concurs.
Can the analysts in the White House produce a report this good? Another A+ for Grok!
Round #3: Help Me Find the Next Great Startup
It’s hard to beat AI infra as an investment these days. I’ve had great success with Micro1, which recently passed $200 million ARR.
This got me thinking: what are the next cards to turn over as we build the superintelligence?
Let’s ask Grok…
Grok came up with some amazing startup ideas. My favorite was producing energy on-site for AI data centers.
Grok searched 346 sources, the most I’ve seen so far. It took just 49 seconds.
This thing could be a better investor than me! The only appropriate grade is another A+.
Wrap-Up
Grok 4.20 Beta crushed it in every round, earning a perfect A+ overall.
I was astounded by Grok’s speed and depth of research. It reasons incredibly well and explains its conclusions clearly.
4.20 Beta is only available to paid subscribers of Supergrok right now. If you’re not paying for Grok, I really suggest ponying up the $30 and giving it a try.
As this winter goes on forever, there’s nothing like a warm hoodie, a hot cup of coffee, and a great podcast. Here’s how to get set up…
Delonghi Essenza Nespresso Machine — If you’re a founder, you probably drink tons of coffee. This little machine will make you a delicious espresso in seconds.
I’ve had mine for 4 years, and it never fails. Pair it with some off-brand capsules from Amazon or your local grocery, and you’re drinking delicious coffee for 25 cents a cup.
You can make a lungo (a larger cup of coffee) or a traditional espresso. I can’t count how much Joe I’ve gotten out of this thing!
Amazon Essentials Hoodie — it’s been freezing cold here in the New York area. Thank God I found the greatest hoodie known to man!
These hoodies are warmer than anything I own aside from my down parka. And if you’re bald like me, that fleece-lined hood is a huge help!
The material is thick and blocks the wind. The stitching is solid, with double stitching on all seams.
And at under $25, you can’t beat the price!
Anker Soundcore Headphones and Earbuds — I tried a $350 pair of Bose noise-cancelling headphones. Turns out these $50 Anker headphones are just as good! I returned the Bose ones and saved myself $300.
And when I’m on the go, I love my Anker earbuds. They’re just $20!
The sound is great and the mics are good enough for phone calls. Best of all, the battery never seems to run out.
I actually like these better than the AirPods I used to have, which cost many times more! You can’t go wrong with Anker.
Wrap-Up
Higher priced isn’t necessarily better. None of these items are the most expensive in their category. But they’re rock solid and make my life better.
With tariffs and growing authoritarianism, Apple has every reason to leave China. So why doesn’t it?
China has several critical advantages. In Apple in China, Patrick McGee shows us why Apple isn’t leaving any time soon.
“There’s no way that they could diversify from China in any meaningful way within the next five years. It’s just impossible.” – Senior Apple executive
Low Labor Costs
People assume that low labor costs are the only reason to manufacture in China.
That’s not true anymore, if it ever was. But despite wage increases in recent years, China’s wages still remain well below those of Japan, Korea, and Taiwan.
Especially when it comes to labor-intensive tasks like iPhone assembly, labor costs matter.
Strikes Banned
Perhaps even better than low labor costs is the fact that Chinese workers can’t complain.
Build iPhones in Europe or America, and you might get hit with a strike. But, strangely for a worker’s paradise, the Chinese government does not allow strikes.
This lets Apple and its suppliers keep factories open no matter what.
Free Land
If you’re building a factory in China, the local government will give you free land. They’ll also build infrastructure. Sometimes, they’ll even give you a free building!
Local governments go out of their way to promote manufacturing because of the incentives of bureaucrats. To rise in the Party, you need to show strong economic growth in your region.
Subsidizing manufacturing is one of the easiest ways to do that.
Massive Scale
Do you need to hire 10,000 people today? China can make it happen.
Apple manufactures at enormous scale. Its suppliers need to hire huge numbers of workers fast.
In a country of 1.4 billion, you can hire at warp speed. Smaller nations simply can’t compete.
Wrap-Up
China’s unique advantages mean that the entire electronics supply chain has concentrated there.
This makes building Apple products elsewhere extremely difficult. Even if you brought the final assembly to India, all the components are still made in China.
Moving away from China would take hundreds of billions in investment. It could happen, but it would take many years.
Despite the risks, Apple is tied to China for the foreseeable future.
Tremendous 