Tremendous

An angel investor's take on life and business

  • I Tested Google’s New Personal Intelligence: Great for Email Digging, Terrible at Basic Travel Info

    Google recently dropped Gemini Personal Intelligence. Gemini can now pull info from your Gmail, Photos, YouTube and more. It has incredible capabilities, but also surprising flaws.

    This morning, I put Personal Intelligence through a three-round test… 

    Round #1: Travel Planning

    I started with something easy: planning my trip to Japan.

    Say I’m at the airport later this month on my way to Tokyo. I need to pull the flight number without digging through my inbox.

    Can Gemini find it? 

    Gemini gave incorrect information, saying that I’m on Japan Airlines and flying to Narita. I’m actually on United and going to Haneda.

    I’m giving this round an F.

    Round #2: Finding a Favorite Photo

    I visited some family in Kentucky a while back. Can Gemini find photos from that trip? 

    Gemini asked me to connect my Google Photos, which I did. Then, it gave me some faces from my camera roll and asked which is me. 

    I clicked on myself. The search began… 

    It found a pretty photo from the square in Elizabethtown. This might have been the only picture I took, since I wasn’t there long.

    This will be really helpful in searching through my camera roll! I hope Apple Photos adds something similar.

    I’m giving this round an A. 

    Round #3: Searching My Email for Founders to Reconnect With

    These personal use cases are fun, but can Personal Intelligence help my business?

    I asked Gemini to find which founders I was e-mailing most a year ago. Then, I can contact them for an update. 

    Here’s what Gemini found (identifying details redacted for privacy):

    Gemini did a great job of searching my email. It would have taken me at least a half an hour to pull this info; Gemini did it in about 30 seconds.

    I totally forgot most of these guys! I’m going to email the last fella on the list for an update. I was especially excited about his startup!

    This is a powerful tool to manage email. I’m giving this round an A+. 

    Wrap-Up

    Overall, I’m giving Gemini Personal Intelligence a B-.

    Personal Intelligence has incredible powers. It’s connected to every service we use, from Gmail to YouTube. It can do a lot of the same things as Openclaw with better security and ease of use. 

    But it makes some surprisingly boneheaded mistakes.

    Personal Intelligence is hard to rely on. But for jobs that aren’t critical, Personal Intelligence can be really useful. 

    I’m excited to see what Google adds to Personal Intelligence. If they can improve accuracy, this could be the most powerful tool in AI. 

    There will be no blog tomorrow for Good Friday. I’ll see you on Monday. Happy Easter!

    More on tech:

    JCal’s Accelerator Just Dropped a Killer Cohort — Here Are My Top 3

    How to Find VCs Near You and Pitch Them In Person

    $1 Million By Demo Day — What Top YC Startups Look Like in 2026

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

    Wispr Flow

    I used this app every single day to dictate to my computer, I’m even dictating this text using Wispr Flow! It’s way better than Apple’s native dictation.

    My productivity is up about 25% since I started dictating rather than typing. I’m also less tired and stressed.

    Get a free month of Wispr Flow Pro here!

  • JCal’s Accelerator Just Dropped a Killer Cohort — Here Are My Top 3

    Jason Calacanis runs one of the best accelerators: the LAUNCH Accelerator. I’ve invested in a dozen of their graduates. Here are my top 3 startups in their new cohort…

    3. Lauft. I love stalking Zillow to see all the cool houses for sale. What if I could swipe like Tinder and find the perfect home? 

    That’s the idea behind Lauft — Tinder for houses. Swipe left or right on each listing. As you swipe, the algo learns what you like and helps you find the ideal home.

    House listings are already addictive. Add the swipe, and people will be glued to Lauft.

    PropTech is a tough market, but it’s massive. Crack it and the rewards are almost limitless. 

    2. Argonath. Everyone is in a mad rush to deploy agents. But are they secure?

    Argonath lets you deploy agents with the highest level of security. These agents even meet DoD standards. 

    We’ve seen high-profile companies like Anthropic get hacked recently. AI is going to make hacking easier than ever.

    Wiz proved that if you have a top-notch security product, you can grow at an incredible speed. Argonath could be on the same trajectory. 

    1. SuperTranslator. Have you ever wondered what your dog is thinking? SuperTranslator can tell you!

    Just train your phone’s camera on your dog. Then, SuperTranslator decodes his body language. The app can tell you if he’s playful, nervous, happy, or sad.

    SuperTranslator relies on numerous published studies to understand animal behavior. Understanding our little friends can bring us closer. 

    I hope it works on gerbils some day!

    SuperTranslator is my top pick in the LAUNCH cohort so far. I like the weird ones!

    Getting into a stranger’s car was weird. Staying in a rando’s spare room was weird.

    But sometimes, weird wins. 

    Wrap-Up

    I’ve been investing in LAUNCH Accelerator companies for five years. This is one of the strongest cohorts yet. 

    These are real businesses with builder founders, launched products, and paying customers. That’s rare for early stage startups!

    This cohort of eight companies just started the program, and there’s a long way to go. Any one of these startups could pull ahead and hit number one.

    Best of luck to these awesome founders!

    Image: “Jason Calacanis” by Peter Kaminski is licensed under CC BY 2.0.

    More on tech: 

    How to Find VCs Near You and Pitch Them In Person

    $1 Million By Demo Day — What Top YC Startups Look Like in 2026

    Your Deck Probably Sucks. Here’s How to Fix It.

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

    Wispr Flow

    I used this app every single day to dictate to my computer, I’m even dictating this text using Wispr Flow! It’s way better than Apple’s native dictation.

    My productivity is up about 25% since I started dictating rather than typing. I’m also less tired and stressed.

    Get a free month of Wispr Flow Pro here!

  • SaaS Is Cheaper Than Ever — But It’s Not Going Anywhere

    SaaS stocks are the cheapest since the Financial Crisis, trading at 4x ARR. Markets think everyone will vibecode their own CRM. Here’s why they’re wrong…

    Markets Move Toward the Most Efficient Outcome

    In a free, competitive market like the United States, markets tend toward the most efficient outcome.

    Imagine two possible worlds… 

    1. Each company vibecodes its own SaaS product. 
    2. A small, focused team builds one SaaS product for everyone. 

    Which is more efficient? 

    World #2, of course! The total number of man hours to produce the software is much lower. 

    What’s more, the World #2 team specializes in software development. This means they’ll produce a better product.

    Why would a free market produce an outcome that costs more and wastes time? 

    Vibecoding Is For Dweebs (Like Me)

    There’s another reason why everyone won’t vibecode their own software: they just don’t want to.

    We tech dweebs love making weird little tools. The average person has no interest.

    Even before AI, products like Bubble made it easy to pop up an app without code. 

    A handful of highly motivated people did it. But most didn’t. 

    The average person would rather scroll Instagram, watch TV, or have a beer.

    No matter how easy you make software development, they’re not going to do it. 

    The Real Threat to SaaS Companies

    The real threat to Big SaaS isn’t customers making their own product. It’s hungry startups. 

    A team of four lunatics in San Francisco using Claude Code can knock off your product in a weekend. 

    They’re hungry. They’re motivated. They’re everything corporate employees aren’t. 

    If they can produce a solution that’s better or cheaper, they’ll start to win over your customers. And they’ll dominate the market for new companies that don’t yet have a solution.

    The only way out is to disrupt yourself. Start embedding great AI features in your product now, if you haven’t already.

    Wrap-Up

    The only people who think big companies are going to vibecode their own software are people who have never worked at one.

    I spent many years working in huge organizations. Moving one button could take countless meetings.

    These companies are not going to vibecode their own CRM anytime soon. 

    With SaaS stocks in the bargain bin, look for founder-led companies with strong product velocity. The founder has the authority to pivot the company on a dime.  

    If you see a founder-led company rapidly shipping great new AI products, it could make a fantastic bet.

    More on tech:

    Trading at 0.2 Times Sales — The Most Hated Companies in SaaS

    SaaS Isn’t Dead — Time to Buy the Dip?

    $1 Million By Demo Day — What Top YC Startups Look Like in 2026

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

    Wispr Flow

    I used this app every single day to dictate to my computer, I’m even dictating this text using Wispr Flow! It’s way better than Apple’s native dictation.

    My productivity is up about 25% since I started dictating rather than typing. I’m also less tired and stressed.

    Get a free month of Wispr Flow Pro here!

  • How to Find VCs Near You and Pitch Them In Person

    Investors like me are bombarded with e-mails. A face-to-face chat makes you stand out. Here’s how to find investors to pitch in person…

    OpenVC has an amazing free tool called OpenVC Map. It maps the location of over 16,000 venture firms and angel investors worldwide. I’ll actually be showing up on the map myself soon!

    Here’s how it works…

    Take my stomping grounds, the NYC area. The largest concentration of investors is around 50th and Park in Midtown. No shocker there — that’s the biggest center of finance in the world. 

    You can see every investor plotted on the map. Click on one and get info on their investment strategy and how to contact them. 

    Let’s click on Insight Partners. They’re one of the largest venture firms in the world.. 

    On the Insight profile, we can see that they write checks from $7M to $700M. We also see the regions where they invest, the stages they like, and even their address. 

    You can pitch them by clicking the Submit Deck button. If Insight likes what you’re doing, you can propose an in-person meeting. 

    Now you know where their offices are! 

    OpenVC works all over the world. There are 99 investors in Tokyo, 108 in Berlin, even 23 in Lagos!

    Use the OpenVC map to get in person with investors. If you impress them face to face, they’ll be reaching for their wallet.

    More on tech: 

    $1 Million By Demo Day — What Top YC Startups Look Like in 2026

    Your Deck Probably Sucks. Here’s How to Fix It.

    My $698,000 Miss on Figure and Anthropic

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Why You Need Revenue to Raise Capital in 2026

    You’re crushing it online – 750,000 visitors in 120 days. You’re ready to raise a round, right? Wrong. 

    Lots of Eyeballs, No Revenue

    Even if a startup gets a lot of attention online, it’s usually not enough to raise capital today. 

    Take the example of a founder on Reddit… 

    He’s built a site to sell car parts. The site is extremely popular, with nearly a million visitors in just four months. 

    But he hasn’t been able to monetize. 

    Attention Isn’t All You Need

    For most startups, lots of eyeballs and no revenue isn’t enough to raise capital today.

    With companies hitting a million in revenue in mere weeks, a pre-revenue company isn’t compelling. 

    If the founder can’t find a way to monetize all those eyeballs, what good are they? 

    The Exceptions

    Some startups can raise large sums without revenue.

    Consumer social startups typically focus on growth for a long time before monetizing. That’s the model we’ve seen from Facebook, Snapchat, etc.

    If they can show strong growth and retention of free users, they may be able to raise millions without any revenue.

    Consumer SaaS can also get away with being pre-revenue for the first several years. Luis von Ahn did this successfully at Duolingo.

    Deep tech startups are usually pre-revenue at seed. A prototype and strong team is enough.

    And if a founder has an incredible track record, all bets are off. He may be able to raise millions with a couple of iMessages. 

    My Best Advice for Pre-Revenue Founders

    Forget about the exceptions. Focus on the rule.

    Raising money from angels and VCs will be difficult. Bootstrap your way to the first couple customers.

    And consider an accelerator! Accelerators specialize in making bets on nascent companies like yours. 

    Wrap-Up

    Being an early-stage founder is the classic chicken and egg problem. You need capital to grow. But without growth, you can’t get capital.

    It’s frustrating. What good are these “investors,” anyway? 

    Forget about them for now. Bootstrap your way to a couple of customers. Get into an accelerator. 

    Then, when you graduate, you can raise that multi-million dollar round. 

    More on tech: 

    $1 Million By Demo Day — What Top YC Startups Look Like in 2026

    Meet My Latest Investment: Cryopets

    My $698,000 Miss on Figure and Anthropic

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

    Wispr Flow

    I used this app every single day to dictate to my computer, I’m even dictating this text using Wispr Flow! It’s way better than Apple’s native dictation.

    My productivity is up about 25% since I started dictating rather than typing. I’m also less tired and stressed.

    Get a free month of Wispr Flow Pro here!

  • AI Just Turned Epstein’s 1.4 Million Emails Into a Calendar — What It Shows Is Chilling

    You can now browse Jeffrey Epstein’s entire calendar online. This morning, I dug into his schedule to find out what day-to-day life was like for the notorious sex offender… 

    The Banality of Evil

    Hannah Arendt coined the term “the banality of evil” while reporting on the trial of Adolf Eichmann. Maybe all evil people, regardless of scale, are like that.

    It’s amazing how much of Epstein’s schedule is incredibly mundane: tooth cleanings, UPS packages, even CPR training. 

    It looks like it could be the schedule of any rich, busy man. Except for one thing… 

    Lolita Airlines

    Epstein was basically running Lolita Airlines. You see countless calendar items with flights for young women. 

    The logistics are very complex. Girls are ferried from one city to another constantly.

    Epstein would’ve needed numerous assistants to run this complex operation. I’m guessing a lot of Ghislaine Maxwell’s time was spent organizing all this travel.

    To add insult to injury, Epstein made at least some of his victims fly coach. 

    A Whirlwind of Activity

    “There’s a psychological condition known as alexithymia, common in certain personalities. The individual craves almost ceaseless action, which enables them to avoid acknowledging the abhorrent things they do.’

    ‘Abhorrent? What certain personalities?’

    ‘Antisocial personalities.’”

    Reading through Epstein’s calendar, I was reminded of Tony’s exchange with Dr. Melfi in season two of The Sopranos.

    Epstein certainly kept busy. A typical week could include over 100 calendar appointments. 

    Meetings with this one, flights here, flights there.

    I have no idea how Epstein kept track of it, even with assistants. It sounds exhausting. 

    Did this whirlwind of activity help keep Epstein’s mind off the terrible things he did? 

    The Power of AI

    It’s incredible that AI can analyze a million Epstein emails and turn them into a browsable calendar.

    The folks behind this project used Reducto to pull it off. Reducto can take massive amounts of unstructured data and get it into a structured format with incredible accuracy.

    Tools like this are going to be invaluable in legal discovery. Reducto would also be great for helping intelligence agencies analyze signals intelligence. 

    Just a couple years ago, we never would’ve been able to recreate Epstein’s calendar like this. I wonder what will be possible a couple of years from now? 

    Wrap-Up

    If there’s one thing that’s clear from looking at Epstein’s schedule, it’s how complicated his life was.

    Epstein couldn’t run his business alone. He couldn’t handle the logistics of abusing these young girls alone, either. 

    Lots of people knew what Epstein was doing. Lots of people helped him. 

    I hope every one of them sees the inside of a prison cell. 

    More on tech:

    Normies Are Still Underestimating AI

    No, We’re Not Over-Investing in AI — Here’s the Math

    Finding the Next Billion Dollar Startup with Openclaw

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

    Wispr Flow

    I used this app every single day to dictate to my computer, I’m even dictating this text using Wispr Flow! It’s way better than Apple’s native dictation.

    My productivity is up about 25% since I started dictating rather than typing. I’m also less tired and stressed.

    Get a free month of Wispr Flow Pro here!

  • $1 Million By Demo Day — What Top YC Startups Look Like in 2026

    14 out of almost 200 startups in YC W26 hit $1 million ARR by Demo Day, according to Garry Tan. That’s the highest ever.

    $1 million ARR by Demo Day is what an elite YC startup looks like in 2026. 

    The Numbers, Straight from Garry

    I look at tons of startups in every YC batch. Hitting $100k ARR used to mean you were one of the top companies. Not anymore. 

    Yesterday, Garry Tan announced on X that YC W26 had the most companies ever hit $1 million ARR by Demo Day. When I asked him how many, he replied that 14 of them hit that milestone.

    Just a couple of batches ago, almost no one would hit $1 million by Demo Day. Now, about 7 percent of YC startups do it. 

    I nailed one myself! Yesterday, I wired for an awesome SaaS company in W26 that recently crossed $1M.

    Why Are Companies Growing Faster?

    AI. 

    AI has made every aspect of running a company faster. You can code faster, contact leads faster, even raise money faster by having AI generate your deck.

    Not wanting to be left behind, businesses are eagerly buying AI tools. When you’re selling into a market like that, you can hit $1 million faster.

    What Does Average Look Like?

    Of course, $1M ARR companies are far from typical.

    From what I’m seeing, the average YC startup has ARR below $100,000. Most software companies have at least some paid customers, but they’re still early.

    Even if you’re not one of the top companies in your batch right now, there’s hope!

    Demo Day is just one day in a company’s life. Maybe you’re not one of the cool kids today. But you could be a huge success later!

    Are the Rounds Open? 

    For the top companies, you’d better get your check in before Demo Day. Demo Day was yesterday, so if you haven’t already nailed one of those $1M ARR companies, you’ll probably have to wait for next batch.

    For average companies, I’m still seeing rounds open. 

    Contact founders you’re interested in sooner rather than later. Meetings have already been going on for a week or more. You don’t want to miss the boat. 

    What About the Prices?

    The best YC companies are growing at ridiculous rates. But can you invest at a price that makes sense?

    Occasionally, the answer is yes. These $1 million ARR startups typically come at valuations between $25 and 40 million.

    I’m comfortable with the lower end of that range. But when you get closer to $40 million, I tap out. There just isn’t enough upside left.

    Valuations go even higher. I saw prices of $50, 75, and even 100 million this batch!

    Oddly, the companies with tons of revenue aren’t raising at the highest valuations. The highest prices I’ve seen in W26 were for deep tech companies.

    There seems to be a bubble in deep tech right now. This may be because everyone’s afraid of the foundational models killing application companies. 

    Wrap-Up

    We can grouse about YC’s valuations. But where else can you find startups just a couple months old with $1 million ARR?

    YC is still producing some of the best companies in tech. Choose carefully, and you could find yourself in the next Stripe. 

    More on tech:

    Your Deck Probably Sucks. Here’s How to Fix It.

    Meet My Latest Investment: Cryopets

    My $698,000 Miss on Figure and Anthropic

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Google Stitch Let Me Design a Sleek Angel Investing App in Minutes – Here’s How

    Most startups I meet are slinging ugly products. No more excuses! Here’s how to use Google Stitch to produce a beautiful design in minutes…

    Google recently dropped Stitch, its new AI design tool. Just talk to Stitch and it will produce any app design you want, for free.

    This morning I used Google Stitch to prototype an app for angel investors. Let me show you what this thing can do!

    My New App: The Startup Sleuth

    For each new startup I meet, I do about 20 minutes of research. What are the founders’ backgrounds? What traction does the company have?

    If AI could speed that up for me, it would be a huge productivity boost. 

    Here’s the prompt I gave Stitch: 

    “Make an app to help angel investors research a startup. I should be able to upload the deck and also include links to any web pages that I want. I want the app’s design to be minimalist. I want it to be dark mode.”

    It’s Alive!

    Stitch asked me to approve its first design. I liked it, but I asked Stitch to make all the fonts serif. I find that a lot easier to read. 

    The interface was a little confusing. I had to scroll down to find new iterations, and there were various text boxes with unclear uses. New iterations popped up in random spots, sometimes below the prior one, sometimes alongside.

    But after a few more tries, I finally nailed it! 

    Stitch did a great job of covering the basics, like the amount the startup has raised and its current traction. 

    The complete design is pretty. The screens are clean and readable. Stitch even included some cool elements I didn’t expect, like a black and white caricature of the founder. 

    As I designed the app, I used Wispr Flow to talk to Google Stitch. Speaking to my computer rather than writing code — that’s revolutionary. 

    Wrap-Up

    My Stitch app had better design than 95% of the startups I see. There’s no excuse for ugly software anymore. 

    A top human designer is still better than Stitch. But for a cash-strapped startup, Stitch is more than adequate. 

    See if you can improve your app’s look and feel with Stitch. Pretty software makes people happy. It also inspires trust. 

    Up your design game, and I guarantee you it will pay off!

    More on tech: 

    Automating My Investing with Lovable

    Spying on Viral X Posts with Grok Tasks

    MiniMax M2.7: China’s $40 Billion AI Flop

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

    Wispr Flow

    I used this app every single day to dictate to my computer, I’m even dictating this text using Wispr Flow! It’s way better than Apple’s native dictation.

    My productivity is up about 25% since I started dictating rather than typing. I’m also less tired and stressed.

    Get a free month of Wispr Flow Pro here!


  • MiniMax M2.7: China’s $40 Billion AI Flop

    MiniMax, a $40 billion Chinese AI startup, just dropped its most powerful model yet. M2.7 claims to be one of the best models in the world, but it flopped in my testing…

    Round #1: How Bad Is the Damage from the Iran War?

    This morning on Bloomberg, I heard that 40 energy sites have been destroyed in the Iran war. How big of an impact will that have?

    MiniMax explains that there’s no comprehensive list of all energy facilities. So, it’s hard to tell what percent have been damaged.

    MiniMax pulls together a good estimate, finding that around 3 to 5% have been damaged thus far. It notes that the percentage matters less than which facilities have the largest scale. MiniMax projects that the disruption will last for between several weeks and a couple of months. 

    This was a good and nuanced answer. But it only cited a couple of sources. Grok 4.20 would have cited hundreds.

    I’ll give this round a B+. 

    Round #2: Will El Nino Mean a Warmer 2026?

    If you were in the Northeast or Midwest this year, you probably froze your butt off! El Nino is projected to hit later this year, giving us warmer weather. 

    When will El Nino start, and how much warmer will it get? 

    MiniMax claims that El Nino makes it colder and wetter in the northeast. But it only cites one source.

    Dejected, I sought a second opinion…

    Grok confirms that El Nino actually results in warmer weather, as does Gemini. Whew!

    MiniMax flunked this round, giving misleading info. I’m giving it an F. 

    Round #3: Researching Helium Production Startups

    For our final round, I gave MiniMax a toughie. 

    Helium production infrastructure in the Middle East is being damaged in the war. Helium is a finite resource because it escapes from the Earth’s atmosphere. 

    Helium is a critical ingredient in chip manufacturing. Are any startups finding new ways to produce it?

    MiniMax explains that the issues with helium are even worse than I thought. A Qatari facility that produces a third of the world’s helium has been badly damaged in the war.

    But there are awesome startups working to fix the problem. One of the most exciting is Interlune, which is trying to mine helium on the moon. 

    MiniMax gave a solid answer, but it cited just 2 sources. It’s hard to know how reliable the answer is. 

    I’m giving this round a B-. 

    Wrap-Up

    MiniMax earned a C- overall in my testing. 

    This is actually down from the C I gave the prior model in January. Some responses are great, but others are completely wrong.

    This makes it hard to rely on MiniMax. But since it’s cheap to run and sometimes produces good results, it could work in your application if you test it carefully.

    But for now, I’m remaining a Grok stan.

    More on tech: 

    MiniMax: China’s $7 Billion AI Model Flops in Testing

    A SOTA Model On Your Phone? — Testing Qwen 3.5

    Normies Are Still Underestimating AI

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

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    More on Fundrise in this post.

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  • Normies Are Still Underestimating AI

    “AI will never be able to…” I never hear anyone in tech say this anymore. But outside our little bubble, most people still underestimate AI.

    Yesterday, I spent the day at New York Build, one of the largest construction conferences in America. I was shocked by how little people outside the technology industry really understand what’s happening in AI.

    Normies Still Underestimate AI

    “AI will never be able to understand what customers want.” 

    I heard an architect confidently make this claim on a panel yesterday. Another agreed with her. 

    I almost gagged. 

    Anyone in tech has long since given up trying to predict what AI cannot do. 

    Outside our industry, a lot of people still want to think that their work is somehow special. AI can do some of it, but cannot replace them.

    I’m not buying it. Just this week, Google released a vibecoding tool that could replace most software engineers. Its design sense is far beyond most humans.

    The general population has no idea what’s about to hit them. 

    AI Takes Way More Energy Than I Thought

    “One Rubin chip requires as much cooling as 40 houses.”

    I learned this incredible fact from a nice young man working at a booth near the entrance. He was selling HVAC systems, and data centers are one of his biggest customers. 

    I knew AI data centers required a ton of energy. But hearing from an expert on HVAC made me realize that the energy needs are far greater than I thought.

    Just this morning, I wired for a new investment that will help data centers reduce their energy use. After chatting with this fella, I was very happy I made that bet. 

    More details soon… 

    How AI Can Help the Real Estate Industry

    It seems like anyone who knows how to actually do anything in this country is about to retire. That’s especially true in real estate.

    I listened to a panel with a facility manager who had managed some of the biggest buildings in New York City. He said most of his colleagues are retiring.

    We should interview them with AI and put as much of their knowledge into the AI models as possible. Then we can run buildings more efficiently.

    If we can run major commercial buildings better, the cost of housing will fall. 

    Wrap-Up

    I got the idea for attending weird, non-tech conferences from Cyan Banister, one of the best early stage investors. She likes to immerse herself in the “general population.”

    New York Build is a great way to do that. Most of the exhibitors sell stuff like pipe fittings and escalators, not SaaS.

    I was shocked how unprepared a lot of people are for what’s coming with AI. But some folks, like the young HVAC salesman, get it and are profiting from it.

    New York Build was a fascinating event — I’ll be back next year!

    Have a great weekend, everybody!

    More on tech: 

    Request for Startups: American Drugs, Litterbots and Robochefs!

    Meet My Latest Investment: Verustruct

    Your Deck Probably Sucks. Here’s How to Fix It.

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order.