Tremendous

Why You Must Be Full Time to Raise Venture Capital

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MiniMax’s New M2.5 Model Flops in Testing

February 18, 2026

Chinese startup MiniMax just dropped M2.5, its most powerful model yet. But M2.5 flopped in my testing, scoring a C+.

That’s only slightly better than MiniMax’s prior model, which I gave a C last month. Let me show you where this model works and where it fails…

Round #1: Automating My Investing

I see a lot of founders using Openclaw to automate repetitive tasks. Can I do the same with my investing?

Let’s ask MiniMax…

MiniMax gave me some interesting ideas, like crawling startup directories or researching founder backgrounds.

I didn’t find MiniMax’s suggestions super compelling or original. I can already do many of these things with Grok or Gemini.

But it did provide some worthwhile ideas, so I’ll give this round a B.

Round #2: MiniMax as Blog Muse

The hardest thing about this blog is finding new topics. Maybe MiniMax can help!

MiniMax gave me some interesting ideas. I like the one about bootstrapping vs. raising venture capital.

I’ve already covered a lot of the topics on MiniMax’s list. That’s not MiniMax’s fault — I’ve just been at this a long time!

I’m giving MiniMax an A on this round.

Round #3: MiniMax as Personal Shopper

If there’s one thing that annoys the heck out of me, it’s shopping.

I’ve been trying to find a good price on a new parka. Can MiniMax help?

MiniMax was useless here. It just tells me to check REI.

Duh! Thanks a lot MiniMax.

I’m giving this round an F.

Wrap-Up

M2.5 claims to be much more powerful than the original MiniMax. It scores well on benchmarks.

But in the real world, M2.5 falls flat.

Benchmarks can be gamed. That’s why I always rely on real-world tests.

If you need a cheap, open-source model to run a basic function in your application, M2.5 can work. But if you want state-of-the-art, MiniMax isn’t it.

More on tech:

Kimi K2.5 Is Slow and Stupid

Can DeepSeek Beat the Best American Models?

Save Money on Stuff I Use:

This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

More on Fundrise in this post.

If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order.

I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

Why I Don’t Invest in 94% of the World

February 17, 2026

I don’t invest in 94% of the world. It’s completely unfair and I make no apology.

My goal isn’t to be fair. It’s to make successful investments.

I invest in a handful of countries: the United States, U.K., Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. They represent just 6% of the world’s population.

I chose these countries because they’re very similar to the US in economic development, laws, and culture.

Many US based investors do the same. Here’s why…

The Power of Networks

I’ve been angel investing in the US for almost five years. Bit by bit, people are coming to know me.

If I go to the other side of the world, no one knows me!

There are great startups created in Israel, India, and Africa. But what are the odds I’d meet them?

The best opportunities will go to the local investors. I’ll be stuck with leftovers.

Predictability Goes a Long Way

I know the legal system here in the United States. The systems in places like Canada and the U.K. are similar, all based on British common law.

I don’t know anything about the legal systems in Africa or India. I don’t know anything about their politics or economies.

Political upheaval or currency fluctuations can torpedo an investment. In the well-developed countries where I invest, that’s less of an issue.

Drilling Oil in Oshkosh

The United States has produced the vast majority of highly successful startups. It makes sense to invest here.

Of my 39 investments to date, 35 have been in the U.S. I expect that trend to continue.

If you’re drilling for oil, you don’t go to Oshkosh, Wisconsin, where I grew up. You go to Texas, which has a history of big oil discoveries.

It’s not much different for startups.

Where are you likeliest to find the next Uber or Ramp? Where you found the last ones — SF and New York.

Wrap Up

Making great investments in America is hard enough. Making great investments somewhere radically different is almost impossible.

My best shot is in markets I know with a history of success.

Other countries will continue to produce the occasional great company. But I’ll be sticking to my own back yard.

More on tech:

Why the ‘Pretty Good Startup’ Can’t Raise Money Today

Why You Must Be Full Time to Raise Venture Capital

Save Money on Stuff I Use:

This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

More on Fundrise in this post.

If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order.

I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

Why the ‘Pretty Good Startup’ Can’t Raise Money Today

February 13, 2026

You’ve got millions in revenue. You’re growing. Raising money should be easy, right? Think again.

Lately I’m seeing many companies in the same boat. I call them the “Pretty Good Startups.”

They’ve gotten to a few million dollars a year in revenue. They’re growing steadily at around 2x year over year.

Cash is running low and it’s time to raise a new round.

A couple of years ago, this wouldn’t have been a problem. But today, expectations are way up.

The best AI companies are reaching hundreds of millions of revenue at record speed.

Take Lovable, the vibecoding tool. Lovable reached $200 million ARR in just one year.

At that point, your SaaS company that went from $3 million to $6 million last year just doesn’t interest investors.

They’d rather place a bet on a new startup that could be the next Lovable. Or, they can dump more money into their fastest growing company.

Either way, you’re not getting a check. So what do you do?

The key is to get to profitability. Then, you don’t need VC’s.

If you’ve got a profitable business doing $5 million a year and you own half of it as the founder, you’re in a great position!

You can continue with that steady growth. Or, you can ship a bunch of new AI features and try to grow faster. Either way, you’re not going anywhere.

But if you require regular cash infusions, you’re in serious trouble.

We can beat up on VCs for having ridiculous expectations. But their job is to look for the best investments.

Two years ago, doubling year over year was best in class. Not anymore.

There will be no blog on Monday for President’s Day. Have a great weekend!

More on tech:

Wren: The AI Coach for Lonely Founders

Why You Must Be Full Time to Raise Venture Capital

Save Money on Stuff I Use:

This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

More on Fundrise in this post.

If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order.

I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

My Favorite Things: The Best Espresso Machine, Headphones and More!

February 12, 2026

As this winter goes on forever, there’s nothing like a warm hoodie, a hot cup of coffee, and a great podcast. Here’s how to get set up…

Delonghi Essenza Nespresso Machine — If you’re a founder, you probably drink tons of coffee. This little machine will make you a delicious espresso in seconds.

I’ve had mine for 4 years, and it never fails. Pair it with some off-brand capsules from Amazon or your local grocery, and you’re drinking delicious coffee for 25 cents a cup.

You can make a lungo (a larger cup of coffee) or a traditional espresso. I can’t count how much Joe I’ve gotten out of this thing!

Amazon Essentials Hoodie — it’s been freezing cold here in the New York area. Thank God I found the greatest hoodie known to man!

These hoodies are warmer than anything I own aside from my down parka. And if you’re bald like me, that fleece-lined hood is a huge help!

The material is thick and blocks the wind. The stitching is solid, with double stitching on all seams.

And at under $25, you can’t beat the price!

Anker Soundcore Headphones and Earbuds — I tried a $350 pair of Bose noise-cancelling headphones. Turns out these $50 Anker headphones are just as good! I returned the Bose ones and saved myself $300.

And when I’m on the go, I love my Anker earbuds. They’re just $20!

The sound is great and the mics are good enough for phone calls. Best of all, the battery never seems to run out.

I actually like these better than the AirPods I used to have, which cost many times more! You can’t go wrong with Anker.

Wrap-Up

Higher priced isn’t necessarily better. None of these items are the most expensive in their category. But they’re rock solid and make my life better.

Give them a shot and tell me what you think!

What are the best things you’ve bought recently?

More on Fundrise in this post.

If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order.

I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

Why Doesn’t Apple Leave China?

February 11, 2026

With tariffs and growing authoritarianism, Apple has every reason to leave China. So why doesn’t it?

China has several critical advantages. In Apple in China, Patrick McGee shows us why Apple isn’t leaving any time soon.

“There’s no way that they could diversify from China in any meaningful way within the next five years. It’s just impossible.” – Senior Apple executive

Low Labor Costs

People assume that low labor costs are the only reason to manufacture in China.

That’s not true anymore, if it ever was. But despite wage increases in recent years, China’s wages still remain well below those of Japan, Korea, and Taiwan.

Especially when it comes to labor-intensive tasks like iPhone assembly, labor costs matter.

Strikes Banned

Perhaps even better than low labor costs is the fact that Chinese workers can’t complain.

Build iPhones in Europe or America, and you might get hit with a strike. But, strangely for a worker’s paradise, the Chinese government does not allow strikes.

This lets Apple and its suppliers keep factories open no matter what.

Free Land

If you’re building a factory in China, the local government will give you free land. They’ll also build infrastructure. Sometimes, they’ll even give you a free building!

Local governments go out of their way to promote manufacturing because of the incentives of bureaucrats. To rise in the Party, you need to show strong economic growth in your region.

Subsidizing manufacturing is one of the easiest ways to do that.

Massive Scale

Do you need to hire 10,000 people today? China can make it happen.

Apple manufactures at enormous scale. Its suppliers need to hire huge numbers of workers fast.

In a country of 1.4 billion, you can hire at warp speed. Smaller nations simply can’t compete.

Wrap-Up

China’s unique advantages mean that the entire electronics supply chain has concentrated there.

This makes building Apple products elsewhere extremely difficult. Even if you brought the final assembly to India, all the components are still made in China.

Moving away from China would take hundreds of billions in investment. It could happen, but it would take many years.

Despite the risks, Apple is tied to China for the foreseeable future.

Would you manufacture in China?

More on tech:

Three Management Secrets from Jensen Huang

Elon Musk (Part 1): Overcoming the Odds

Memos from the Chairman

Save Money on Stuff I Use:

This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

More on Fundrise in this post.

If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order.

I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

Wren: The AI Coach for Lonely Founders

February 10, 2026

What if you had an AI coach that remembered every detail about your startup? That’s the promise of a new product called Wren. This morning, I put it to the test…

Wren is an AI coach for founders. The team behind it says that Wren has infinite memory, which means it can draw on all past conversations to give advice.

A founder’s life can be lonely. Can this AI coach help?

Round #1: Three Months Runway

If you’re almost out of runway, it’s hard to talk to your team. Let’s talk to Wren instead.

I told Wren my fictional startup has only three months of runway left. Can it help me out of this jam?

First, Wren asked some follow-up questions. I told it we’re at $50K MRR with a team of six. I explained growth has been flat for three months and we haven’t been able to raise.

Wren told me to cut two or three employees. It also told me to only build features that will drive new customer sign-ups.

This isn’t bad advice, but it’s obvious.

It’s like the McKinsey consultant meme. Cut expenses, increase revenue.

Still, Wren isn’t wrong. And just serving as a confidant has value.

I’m giving this round a B.

Round #2: VC Pulls Term Sheet

For round two, I gave Wren every founder’s worst nightmare: a VC pulling a term sheet. Can Wren save the day?

Wren asked how much runway I have. It didn’t remember that I just told it I have three months runway.

This infinite memory doesn’t seem so infinite!

Still, Wren gave some solid advice, like cutting burn and trying to raise a few angel checks. But the fact that it couldn’t use our last conversation for context made its responses less useful.

I’m giving this round a C.

Round #3: Problem Employee

For my last scenario, I asked Wren for advice about an employee. He isn’t hitting his sales quota and I’m not sure what to do.

Wren suggested I look at his pipeline. Does he have real opportunities in there?

This was solid, nuanced advice. I told Wren that my sales guy was just two months into the job. Wren said that’s too early to judge him, given most sales cycles.

I’m giving this round an A.

Wrap-Up

Overall, I’m giving Wren a B.

An AI confidant for founders is a great idea, and Wren did a good job of asking questions and giving helpful advice.

But the infinite memory doesn’t work. Even from one conversation to the next, Wren forgets key details.

If Wren could remember everything I’d ever told it, it could be more than a confidant. It could be an AI chief of staff.

Now that’s an exciting future!

Next time you’re in a jam, would you try Wren?

More on tech:

Meet My Latest Investment: Cryopets

Is Moltbook a Hoax?

Save Money on Stuff I Use:

This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

More on Fundrise in this post.

If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order.

I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

Kimi K2.5 Is Slow and Stupid

February 9, 2026

Moonshot AI recently dropped Kimi K2.5, its most powerful model ever. But in my testing, K2.5 failed miserably.

When I reviewed Kimi K2 in November, it was a real threat to ChatGPT and Grok. But K2.5 feels like a major downgrade.

Across a range of queries, K2.5 delivered useless results. Let me show you where this model fails…

Round #1: Automate Francis

I find it impossible to keep up with all the new AI tools these days. Which would help me most as an investor?

Let’s ask Kimi…

I used K2.5 Thinking, Kimi’s advanced model. It gave me obvious answers like Claude and Apollo.

These tools aren’t new. They’ve been widely used for years now. Still, it came up with a couple decent ideas, like using Sourcescrub to find startups that aren’t yet well known.

I’m giving this round a C.

Round #2: Researching Startups

This afternoon, I’m meeting with an exciting startup called Archicheck AI. It helps architects to design code-compliant structures.

Can Kimi help me prepare?

For this round, I use Kimi’s Deep Research feature. It asked me where to focus, which is an interesting tactic. I told it to give me details on all aspects of the startup.

Deep Research was painfully slow. After about 20 minutes, I gave up and did the research manually. Even the most powerful versions of Grok and Gemini are much faster.

I’m giving this round an F.

Round #3: Kimi as Personal Shopper

With Kimi stinking it up in the first two rounds, I decided to give it something easier.

It’s been frigid here in the New York City area for several weeks now. Can Kimi help me find a great deal on a new parka?

I got excited — a McMurdo parka for $210?

Turns out, Kimi was way off. The jacket’s still selling for the normal list price of $400.

I’m giving this round an F.

Wrap-Up

Overall, I’m giving Kimi K2.5 a D.

China has produced some great open-source models, but K2.5 isn’t one of them. DeepSeek or even the prior K2 model performed much better in my testing.

If you want open source, go with DeepSeek. And if you want the most powerful model available, Gemini, Grok, and Claude have you covered.

Still, I wouldn’t count Moonshot AI out. They’ve shipped some great products in the past, and while K2.5 is a bust, I’m excited to try their next model.

Have you tried Kimi K2.5?

More on tech:

Can DeepSeek Beat the Best American Models?

Is Moltbook a Hoax?

Save Money on Stuff I Use:

This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

More on Fundrise in this post.

If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order.

I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

TrumpRx: Love Him or Hate Him, These Drugs Are Really Cheap

February 6, 2026

TrumpRx just dropped. Even if you hate The Donald, you’ve got to admit — these drugs are dirt cheap.

TrumpRx lets you buy medications directly from pharmaceutical companies. This cuts out middlemen and saves money.

The Trump administration has negotiated rock-bottom pricing on many common meds. They plan to add a lot more medications in the future.

TrumpRx looks like no other government website. The design is clean and beautiful.

This morning, I looked up three common meds. Is TrumpRx really as good of a deal as the President claims?

Weight Loss Meds

Half of America wants to get on GLP-1’s. But they’re expensive, right?

Not anymore.

I looked up the new Wegovy pill, one of the first weight loss meds in pill form. It’s a bargain at just $149 a month. That’s as low as anywhere else I could find online.

Will obesity become a thing of the past?

IVF Drugs

During the campaign, President Trump promised to make IVF free. So I decided to check prices for Gonal-F, a med commonly used in IVF.

TrumpRx sells it for just $168 for the 300 IU dose. That’s as cheap as anywhere online. Some pharmacies are charging thousands of dollars for the same drug!

I’m really glad President Trump is focused on making IVF more affordable. Our fertility rate is low and women are having kids later.

IVF isn’t free yet, but getting Gonal-F on TrumpRx is a great start.

Asthma Inhalers

“If you can’t breathe, nothing else matters.”

That used to be the motto of the American Lung Association. I’ve known a lot of people with asthma, and it can be debilitating.

An inhaler can clear it up. But too often, they cost a fortune!

Luckily, TrumpRx has the Airsupra inhaler for just $201. That’s an enormous savings over other websites I checked, which averaged around $500.

Wrap-Up

TrumpRx is a fantastic website. I’m giving it an A. Add more meds and I’ll bump that up to an A+!

The launch was smooth as butter. Remember the launch of Healthcare.gov during the Obama administration? It was a total disaster.

The Trump administration got this right. The UI is clean, easy to use, and — shocking for a government website — beautiful.

Best of all, the prices are the lowest around. Millions of Americans are going to save money.

Whatever your politics, if you take medication, you should be using TrumpRx.

Have a great weekend, everybody!

More on tech:

Using Grok 3 to Manage My Stock Portfolio

Making Impossible Videos With the New Grok Imagine 1.0

Save Money on Stuff I Use:

This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

More on Fundrise in this post.

If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order.

I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

Meet My Latest Investment: Cryopets

February 5, 2026

“This company will save my cat, and then it’ll save my parents, and then it’ll save me.” That’s Kai Mills. He’s on a mission to make pets live forever.

Kai is the founder of Cryopets. CryoPets freezes pets so that, when medicine advances, they can be brought back to life and cured.

They’ve already done their first patient, a Siberian husky. Many more will follow.

The moment your pet dies, Cryopets swings into action. They send a specialized ambulance to begin the cryopreservation process, infusing your pet with special medical anti-freezing agents to avoid tissue damage.

A few years ago, my pet gerbil died. I’ve never talked about this publicly.

It made me really sad. It still does.

If you’ve ever lost a pet, I’m sure you felt the same way.

Bringing back our little friends is a wonderful mission. But Cryopets aims to do a lot more than that.

In time, Kai hopes to freeze and bring back human beings. This would allow us to live forever.

That might sound crazy, but keep in mind that women freeze their eggs all the time, thaw them, and successfully have babies.

This technology is not as speculative as it sounds.

Cryopets may be the most ambitious investment I’ve ever made. If it weren’t for Kai’s strength as a founder, I wouldn’t even consider it.

Kai is a Thiel Fellow, a program with a far lower acceptance rate than Harvard or YC. He’s already raised over $10M for cryonics research.

Kai is a missionary. He’s exactly the kind of founder I want to back.

I’m delighted to be a small investor in their recent seed round, led by Valyrian, a fund that invests in Thiel Fellows.

Cryopets is signing up pets for its waitlist now. Consider signing up and giving your little friend a chance to live forever!

More on tech:

Is Moltbook a Hoax?

Save Money on Stuff I Use:

This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

More on Fundrise in this post.

If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!