Tremendous

An angel investor's take on life and business

  • How Camping Is Improving My Life

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    In April 2020, I did something I never thought I’d do: leave my warm, comfortable apartment and sleep in a bag in the woods.

    When I found out friends of mine were organizing a camping trip, my brain immediately started manufacturing excuses why I couldn’t go: too cold, the gear’s too expensive, etc. But with lockdowns removing most of the things I normally did, it occurred to me it might be time to try something new.

    So I bought the essential camping equipment and we rode up to the Catskill Mountains, which I see have 255 Google Reviews with a 4.5 star average. (Who reviews a mountain range like it’s a 7-11?) I expected the trip to be something I’d simply endure. Instead, I took to the woods almost right away.

    Since then, we’ve gone six more times plus numerous day hikes, and I’ve become a Junior Woodsman. I almost had an attack the first time I had to put up my tent, and a kind friend wound up basically doing the entire thing for me. But I learned, bit by bit. Last Friday, when we went here (highly recommended although closing for the season tomorrow) I had my tent up in about 5 minutes.

    What do I get from being in the woods? The removal of the typical stimuli lets my brain work better. I see things more clearly and come to certain realizations. For example, this weekend, it became clearer to me that the next step for my investment business in 2021 may be to rebalance from stocks into more commercial real estate, given the relative valuations of the two asset classes.

    Being with friends all day, every day, solving problems and undergoing challenges together is very different from just hanging out for a few hours on the weekend. You get closer as a group and come to know each other better. Some times, you barely need to speak anymore, because you know you’re already understood.

    Your existence in the woods is very simple. You need water, a fire, some food, a basic shelter and your friends. And not much else. That time can inform the rest of your life once you’re back home.

    With many campgrounds closing for the season, we will likely be transitioning to more day hikes and trying to find some cabins for rent from time to time. However we do it, more time in nature is bound to be a positive for us.

    Give it a try!

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  • How I Learned to Cook

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    For 11 years through college and most of my 20’s, I cooked little more than toast. Every meal I ate, I ate at the cafeteria and later, once I had a real job, an actual restaurant.

    I had many a scrumptious dinner, but I also had an anemic bank account and expanding belly. I realized something had to change.

    How do you learn something with zero background? Find the best teacher you can and do exactly what they say. My first was Budget Bytes, an excellent blog that posts simple recipes with very detailed instructions. Every step comes with a photo. If mine looked like hers, it gave me confidence.

    Try her Split Pea, Bacon and Potato soup. I fed some to a friend recently and she couldn’t stop raving about it!

    Eventually, I was ready for a bigger challenge. Around that time, I discovered Joshua Weissman, whose creative and technically sound recipes inspired me to make things like sourdough bread that I never thought I could do.

    His latest video on breakfast burritos just made me glad I wasn’t fasting that day!

    The startup costs in cooking for myself were substantial (pots and pans, spices, etc). At first I didn’t think I was saving a dime. But over time, my food spending plummeted.

    There was another side effect I never expected. As soon as I quit eating out daily, I immediately lost 30 pounds with no effort at all.

    You can make more money, but you can’t easily make more health. I hope these links will help you guys eat well, be healthy, save money, and have fun!

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  • We’ve Had a Vaccine Since January 2020

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    I just found out that we’ve had a COVID vaccine since January 13, 2020, a mere two days after a brave Chinese scientist published the virus’ genetic sequence. In this superb article, David Wallace-Wells details how Moderna created its vaccine, which has proven highly effective in trials, in a single weekend.

    What if we had made that vaccine available to anyone who wanted it, albeit with a major safety warning, in January? Tens, maybe even hundreds of thousands of lives might have been saved. We might also have been able to collect more safety data sooner, from those very volunteers.

    In an insightful post, economist John Cochrane proposes such a system that would track those volunteers and thereby collect great safety data (see part 2 of his post). This could be done alongside the traditional clinical trials the FDA mandates, rather than in place of them.

    Such a system would provide greater freedom, more data, and a chance to save lives. With thousands dying in the US alone per day, what are we waiting for?

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  • The Only Health Podcast That Makes Me Laugh Too

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    Lee Syatt may not be famous (yet), but he’s a hilarious comedian. Unfortunately, he’s also well over 300 pounds at 5’4″. Lately, I’ve been enjoying his new podcast What Was I Thinking?, where he is detailing his efforts to get in shape.

    I find myself laughing hysterically walking down the street as people distance themselves from me for reasons far beyond COVID. If you’d like to do the same, check out his podcast and also his new Patreon, where Lee works with his brother (who happens to be a noted personal trainer) to get healthy.

    As someone who once had many of the same problems as Lee, I wish I’d have had this show when I was losing weight!

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  • Why We Need an NBA Bubble for Nursing Homes

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    Earlier this year, my Great Aunt Paula died at 97. She was the last of a generation of old-time Italians in our family that lived on one street in Bridgeport, CT for decades. As the years went by, she developed health problems and had to live in a nursing home elsewhere in the state.

    Nursing homes have been tinderboxes for COVID-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. Like thousands of other nursing home residents in Connecticut alone, Aunt Paula died of COVID.

    Nursing homes have many very high risk people living in close quarters. 72% of COVID deaths in Connecticut so far have occurred in nursing homes and assisted living facilities. Nationally, the percentage of deaths that have occurred in nursing homes is a still-staggering 38%. Testing in Connecticut, among other states, has been woefully inadequate, with facilities allowed to cease testing if they’ve had no cases in 2 weeks. This is absurd given that the group is not sealed and the virus can be brought in from outside at any time.

    But nursing homes could be much better protected if they adopted the practices of a group of very low risk people who also live in close quarters: NBA players.

    With the right funding, nursing home workers (and potentially their families as well) could go into a bubble where they only interact with each other and the elderly residents they care for. This may require additional pay, but in a sector where employees tend to be paid poorly and mistreated, any additional pay is likely to be a powerful incentive.

    Bubbles have already been created at some innovative and well-run facilities like Shady Oaks Assisted Living in Bristol, CT (explored in detail in this superb article). Shady Oaks escaped with no COVID fatalities. Owner Tyson Belanger, whose leadership throughout has been superlative, estimates that reproducing the system statewide would cost less than $10,000,000 per week. In the context of a multi-trillion dollar federal budget, this is a rounding error.

    I only wish my great aunt had lived at Shady Oaks.

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  • Why I Am Confident the FDA Will Make the Right Decision on COVID Vaccines

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    Despite the speed at which COVID vaccines were developed, I am confident the FDA will only approve a safe and effective vaccine. In this interview with the eminent Dr. Eric Topol, FDA Commissioner Dr. Stephen Hahn explains that the decision will be made by career scientists at the FDA. It will not be made by politicians or political appointees, including Hahn himself.

    Hahn and Topol note that these clinical trials are among the largest ever conducted. Any employee can raise concerns re. efficacy and safety.

    And frankly, if a doctor with Topol’s track record is confident in the FDA’s decision making, that gives me enormous confidence as well.

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  • AstraZeneca’s COVID Vaccine is Either 62% or 90% Effective. Which Is It?

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    AstraZeneca has produced confusing results for its COVID vaccine. The trial had two groups with two very different results. The first group got two full doses. In that group, the vaccine was 62% effective. The second group got a half dose and then a full dose, which proved 90% effective.

    The first half of this excellent podcast by STAT News explains the situation in detail. The difference in effectiveness may be due to the smaller size of the second group. It could also be due to the lower average age in that group. A third possibility is that since the first dose was smaller, it may have been easier for the body to express the spike protein needed to prevent COVID.

    The different dosing in the second group was due to a manufacturing error, which makes me question exactly how careful AstraZeneca is being. However, even a 62% percent effective vaccine has very real value at a time when daily COVID deaths worldwide are often exceeding 10,000.

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  • Did the NFL Just Create the Best COVID Test in the World?

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    There are two types of COVID tests:

    • PCR Tests. The most accurate available, but the turnaround time is often several days. That makes the result less useful because we don’t know to isolate or how to treat as soon as we need to.
    • Antigen Tests. Fast (about 15 minutes) and reasonably accurate, but less so than PCR. In particular, it can fail to pick up asymptomatic infections.

    Until now. The NFL, in cooperation with BioReference Laboratories and Mesa BioTech, has created a PCR test that can be resulted in 30 minutes. In a study of 917 people, the results on this rapid PCR were identical to those of a traditional PCR.

    If this is used in combination with rapid antigen tests (more widely available) to confirm the test result (likely when there’s a positive result and no symptoms, or a negative result with symptoms), it could make accurate diagnosis much faster.

    This is not available to the public currently, but here’s hoping it will be soon!

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  • How I Kept Laughing in 2020

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    If we ever needed a laugh, this is the year. Lately, I’ve been relaxing with videos by two different very funny men:

    • James Blackwood – Raccoon Whisperer, a nice man from Canada who feeds dozens of raccoons hot dogs in his back yard nightly. They love hot dogs, cookies, and grapes, and even let him pet them! Sure to bring a smile to your face.
    • Uncle Joey’s Joint by my favorite comedian, Joey Diaz. Not for everyone and certainly not safe for work. But the laughs and his inspirational messages and life philosophy have brightened a challenging year for me. If you’re all in, as I am, go to Joey’s Patreon, where for $3 a month you can get an exclusive podcast (The Joey Diaz Project, highly recommended), daily motivational messages, and more.

    Leave your recommendations in the comments for funny videos, comedians, or anything else that makes you smile. I look forward to discovering new things! Stay strong everyone!

    Bonus: I’ve been listening to this background music channel regularly during periods of focused work, including while writing this post. I find myself calmer and more productive for it. Give it a listen!

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  • Why You Should Tell Your Boss You’re Not Coming in on Friday

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    In my prior career in medical software, I worked both five and four day weeks. Guess which one I preferred?

    Correct! But I was also rested and refreshed on Monday when I worked 4 day weeks. 5 day weeks? Not so much.

    Late in my tenure in software, I was asked to create a feature that was the most complex work I had ever done in 14 years in the field. I made almost no progress for months despite a lot of effort. I was beginning to think it was impossible. I also hadn’t taken a vacation day in 6 months.

    Then I went here (highly recommended) for 3 weeks and came back. I looked at the task again, saw it with new eyes, and got to work. I accomplished more that 1st day back than I had in the prior 3 months.

    Research is emerging that rest is a necessary precondition for productivity. Microsoft Japan went to a 4 day workweek and saw productivity go up 40%. Perpetual Guardian, a financial services firm in New Zealand, did the same and their profits increased by 12.5%.

    If we’re rested, we’re healthier, happier, more creative and more productive. In my investment business today, where I have no one to answer to other than myself, I alternate brief periods of focused work with long stretches away from that work. My actual active time can be as little as a few hours per week, and the results are beyond what I expected.

    So with that in mind, I think I’ll go test out my new hiking boots!

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This is not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor. All information on this site is for entertainment purposes only.

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