Tremendous

An angel investor's take on life and business

  • Bao Fan did everything right. Despite being one of China’s top tech investors, Bao kept a low profile and hewed to the Communist Party line. Then, he disappeared.


    Get the blog before anyone else…subscribe!


    From an article out this morning in The New York Times:

    …on Valentine’s Day last week, rumors started circulating that Mr. Bao had gone missing. His company later confirmed his disappearance in a regulatory filing.

    China’s tech world is watching closely what will happen to Mr. Bao, who knows or has worked with nearly every mover and shaker in the industry. He is not as well known outside the business world but is just as symbolic of the industry’s rising presence in China as Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba, who has largely vanished from public view after falling out with the government in 2020.

    There’s no one quite like Bao Fan in the United States. Half investment banker, half venture capitalist, Bao was intimately involved in almost every major Chinese tech company.

    He brought together warring startups to create giants like Didi and Meituan. Bao prospered, and so did the companies he helped.

    His influence reached so far that people said, “If you don’t know Bao Fan, you haven’t made it.”

    But new Chinese leaders took a darker view of Bao’s success.

    The government began investigating one of his top lieutenants, Cong Lin. China’s government has implied that Bao is assisting in that investigation.

    But no one knows where Bao is. Or if he’s even alive.

    Clearly, Bao could’ve helped an investigation while retaining his post. It’s more likely he’s being abused and intimidated and as an example to others.

    Indeed, China’s tech industry is watching closely:


    A tech founder who had worked with Mr. Bao on deals wrote on social media that entrepreneurs were like “frightened birds.” “Confidence is slow to build but quick to dissipate,” he wrote. “Without confidence, who will build factories, start companies and invest in the future?”

    Many Chinese entrepreneurs are quietly leaving the country with their millions.

    More and more, you will see rich business owners leaving China, along with ambitious young people. Why spend a lifetime building a business if the government can just take it away?

    Dictatorship is the ultimate single point of failure. One bad man in the wrong spot, and your country goes down in flames.

    Xi is that man. But the Communist system is what gives him the power he has.

    From an interview in The Japan Times:

    “This is part of the evolution of the Communist Party,” said Drew Thompson, a visiting research scholar at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore. “Private entrepreneurs — high-profile, wealthy people — are increasingly incompatible with ‘common prosperity’ and the direction that Xi Jinping has taken.”

    What do you think the future holds for Chinese tech? Leave a comment and let me know!

    More on tech:

    Top VC Firms Have Great Returns…Right?

    Google is Losing the AI Race

    Consumer Startups: What Works and What Doesn’t

    Get the blog before anyone else…subscribe!

    If you found this post interesting, please share it on Twitter/Reddit/etc. This helps more people find the blog! 

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • A surprise rally this year has hit short sellers hard. Losses total nearly $17 billion already in 2023:

    From a report out this morning in Bloomberg:

    Ten of the most-shorted stocks this year delivered almost $17 billion in combined mark-to-market losses for bears through Thursday, according to data-analytics firm S3 Partners. Tesla, which has surged 67% so far in 2023, leads the group by dealing a $7.2 billion blow to traders shorting the stock. The electric-car maker is followed by Nvidia Corp., Apple, Meta, Amazon.com Inc. and Microsoft Corp.

    Heavily shorted meme stocks have also delivered painful lessons to short sellers.

    AMC Entertainment Holdings is up 38% this year. GameStop Corp has jumped 17%.

    What we’re seeing is an overall risk-on attitude. All the assets we hated in 2022, from crypto to meme stocks to tech, are surging in 2023.

    Hedge funds shorting meme stocks are in an especially weak position.

    The cost to borrow shares like AMC and GameStop is stratospheric, sometimes passing 100% per year. With fees like that, the stock either craters ASAP or you lose a fortune.

    Add that to intense retail interest, and you have a recipe for disaster.

    I don’t know where markets are headed. But I do know that paying double or triple digit interest rates to short a volatile stock is reckless.

    And what of the bigger names, like Nvidia or Microsoft? Well, it so happens those two companies are some of the most likely to benefit from major advances in AI.

    Nvidia makes GPU’s, the chips AI relies on. Microsoft owns a huge piece of OpenAI, one of the best companies in the space.

    If AI fever begins to power markets, short sellers in those names will be running for cover.

    In general, short selling is a poor strategy. Your upside is capped at 100%, your downside is unlimited, and you’re swimming against the generally rising tide of markets.

    I prefer to buy great businesses for the long term.

    What do you think is next for short sellers? Leave a comment and let me know!

    More on markets:

    SEC Refuses to Address Massive Fraud in Markets

    Major Hedge Fund Down 54% — Survival in Doubt

    Citadel’s Illegal Trades — The Tip of the Iceberg?

    Get the blog before anyone else…subscribe!

    If you found this post interesting, please share it on Twitter/Reddit/etc. This helps more people find the blog! 

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

    Photo: Prominent Tesla short seller Jim Chanos. “Jim Chanos and Stephen Roach at Asia Society New York” by Asia Society is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0.

  • I recently met with a startup that’s dead broke. They’re convinced that if only they could raise another round, everything will work.

    It won’t. Here’s why…


    Get the blog before anyone else…subscribe!


    Some startups are negative gross margin businesses. Think of this as the old cliche, “We lose money on every one, but we make it up in volume.”

    Let’s say I’m going to start an Airbnb killer – Frankbnb. If Frankbnb charges $100 a night to stay in the average room, that’d be a great deal!

    But how do I get hosts to accept that low price? What if I paid hosts $200 a night and ate the difference?

    Everyone would be so happy! Guests and hosts would flock to my platform, and I’m off to the races.

    Sounds great, but actually it winds up more like this:

    Why doesn’t this work?

    Because with a negative gross margin model, you can’t stop losing money. Ever.

    Every guest costs you $100 a night. The more guests you sign up, the better you think you’re doing.

    But in reality, each one digs you deeper into the hole.

    Obviously, the real Airbnb doesn’t do this. It charges guests, then gives a percentage of that to hosts, keeping the rest.

    We investors complain about negative gross margin businesses all the time. But we created them.

    Easy VC funding meant startups could always raise another round. Growth was all that mattered.

    In 2023, reality is hitting unsustainable startups like a ton of bricks. VC’s are laser focused on margins and burn.

    Negative gross margin businesses will either adapt rapidly or die.

    Look closely at your startup. Do you make money on each new customer?

    If not, take a hard look at your business model before it’s too late.

    Are you seeing lots of unsustainable growth? Leave a comment and let me know.

    There will be no blog on Monday in honor of President’s Day. See you Tuesday.

    Have a great weekend everyone!

    More on tech:

    Dawn of the Dead VC’s

    Top VC Firms Have Great Returns…Right?

    From Design to Code in Seconds with AI

    Get the blog before anyone else…subscribe!

    If you found this post interesting, please share it on Twitter/Reddit/etc. This helps more people find the blog! 

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • “This situation must be controlled before it’s too late! They are multiplying too rapidly.”

    The Dawn of the Dead, 1978

    That friendly VC you met on Zoom might not be what he seems. He might be…the undead!

    Zombie venture firms are firms that can’t raise a new fund. So, they have no money to make new investments.

    Zombies proliferate in every down market. But they’re not easy to spot.

    They continue taking meetings and even diligencing companies. But the check never comes.

    As a founder, you don’t have time to waste with the undead. So how do you spot them?

    Let’s assume you’re raising a Series A. Here are some red flags to look for, from Danielle Morrill’s excellent blog:

    • They haven’t made any series A investments in the past 6 months
    • They haven’t invested outside their existing portfolio in the past 3 months
    • They haven’t made ANY investment in the past 3 months (after a more regular pace in the past)
    • They tell you they’re re-focusing on later stage deals, or raising a new fund


    If someone says he’s a Series A investor but never makes any Series A investments, you’re wasting your time. And with runway more precious than ever, you can’t afford it.

    There’s also nothing wrong with asking the VC to connect you to the founders of their recent investments. You should diligence them just as carefully as they diligence you.

    After all, this could be a ten year relationship!

    Making sure you’re talking to active firms matters most in a down market.

    New managers raised tons of new funds at the peak. Many invested at the top of the market and will struggle to show returns.

    Even worse, investors in venture (known as Limited Partners or LP’s) are pulling back. They’ve been clobbered in the public markets and have little spare cash.

    Bad returns and a weak LP market means many newer venture funds are walking dead.

    But no one wants to be embarrassed! So zombie VC’s often act like normal ones, taking meetings and diligencing deals.

    In reality, they’re counting the days until their firm is no more.

    I have compassion for the zombies — it’s a hard position to be in. But as a founder, the VC’s problem isn’t your problem, and you have no time for it.

    Stick to the active players, raise your round, and get back to work!

    Have you met a zombie VC? Leave a comment and let me know!

    More on tech:

    Top VC Firms Have Great Returns…Right?

    From Design to Code in Seconds with AI

    Consumer Startups: What Works and What Doesn’t

    Get the blog before anyone else…subscribe!

    If you found this post interesting, please share it on Twitter/Reddit/etc. This helps more people find the blog! 

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • CalPERS did everything right. It won access to some of the finest venture firms: NEA, Khosla. The returns? Terrible.


    Get the blog before anyone else…subscribe!


    New data is pulling back the curtain on VC returns. For the $440 billion California pension fund, many venture investments have notched poor results.

    From a report out this morning in Business Insider:

    The CalPERS fund’s $75 million bet in 2001 on a venture fund managed by the Carlyle Group lost money. That same year, the $75 million it invested in a fund from the VC giant New Enterprise Associates yielded a dismal internal rate of return of 2.7%. A $25 million investment in DCM’s 2000 fund had a 1.9% IRR. 

    Its $260 million investment in two Khosla Ventures funds in 2009 yielded an IRR of 11.8% for the early-to-midstage fund and 6.9% for the seed-stage fund. Those figures were both below the 14.7% benchmark for that year…

    A fund that returns about 2.3x qualifies for the elite, top quartile. Over a 10 year fund life, that’s around 9% a year.

    The funds CalPERS invested in badly missed their benchmarks.

    What Went Wrong?

    I have a few theories:

    1) Adverse selection.

    CalPERS has to report the returns of the funds it invests in. This means it’s locked out of some of the very best firms.

    Again from Business Insider:

    It did not help that CalPERS was locked out of top firms like Sequoia, Benchmark, and Accel because they did not want their performances publicly disclosed in filings. 

    2) Too much money. Nice problem to have, right?

    Not always.

    You often get higher returns by investing in smaller, early stage funds.

    But a startup that’s barely off the ground only needs so much cash. Give them $100 million, and they won’t know what to do with it.

    This means that you can only put so much capital to work at the early stage.

    But CalPERS has billions to deploy! They’ll never get there by giving $5 million at a time to little seed funds.

    This pushes them to the late stage and locks them out of some of the best returns.

    3) Rotten valuations. CalPERS investments in 2001 did particularly poorly.

    The NASDAQ started falling in early 2000. But it didn’t bottom out until late 2002.

    Meanwhile, growth stage startups generally follow the NASDAQ with a lag. So those valuations may not have bottomed until 2003 or later.

    This means that for many of the later stage investments CalPERS made, the prices were likely inflated.

    Wrap-Up

    So, should we run like hell from venture? Not quite.

    Venture returns are still higher than any other asset class.

    But CalPERS has only invested in a very small number of venture funds. They haven’t placed enough bets to hit a winner.

    Institutions should invest in more funds across vintages. Some are laggards, but others shoot the lights out.

    You have to stay at the table long enough to win.

    What do you think of investing in venture capital?

    Leave a comment and let me know!

    More on tech:

    The Hard Thing About Hard Things

    How I Decide to Double Down

    From Design to Code in Seconds with AI

    Get the blog before anyone else…subscribe!

    If you found this post interesting, please share it on Twitter/Reddit/etc. This helps more people find the blog! 

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

    Photo: Khosla Ventures founder “Vinod Khosla” by jdlasica is licensed under CC BY 2.0.

  • I think I just saw the future.

    A new tool called Bifrost can turn any Figma design into code instantly using AI. The alpha was just released yesterday, and already Twitter is blowing up.

    Bifrost lets you take a graphical design for your product and make it real.

    First, you design the appearance of your app using Figma, the ubiquitous design tool. Next, you turn it into React code with a couple of clicks.

    It even learns how your team likes to code to make sure its output matches your style.

    The average front-end web developer makes $152,000 a year. If Bifrost can make them even 20% more productive, that’s worth $30,000 a year.

    Per person.

    Today, Bifrost can create web app front-ends. In the future, Bifrost and tools like it may produce all forms of software.

    Perhaps most amazing is the tiny team that produced this huge advance. Bifrost appears to have just four engineers.

    I’m very excited about what a tool like Bifrost can do! Many people have awesome ideas for products but don’t know how to code them.

    Removing that barrier could unleash a whole new wave of entrepreneurs.

    What do you think of Bifrost? Leave a comment and let me know!

    More on tech:

    The Hard Thing About Hard Things

    Consumer Startups: What Works and What Doesn’t

    Zero to One

    Get the blog before anyone else…subscribe!

    If you found this post interesting, please share it on Twitter/Reddit/etc. This helps more people find the blog! 

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Every day, there seems to be a new AI chatbot. But what if one bot could query any of them — one chatbot to rule them all?


    Get the blog before anyone else…subscribe!


    Enter Poe, a new chatbot from Quora. Poe can query three different chatbots to help you find the best answer.

    From TechCrunch:


    Q&A platform Quora has opened up public access to its new AI chatbot app, Poe, which lets users ask questions and get answers from a range of AI chatbots, including those from ChatGPT maker, OpenAI, and other companies like Anthropic. Beyond allowing users to experiment with new AI technologies, Poe’s content will ultimately help to evolve Quora itself, the company says.

    Let’s see what Poe can do!

    First, you’ll have to download an iOS app. Inexplicably, Poe doesn’t have a web version.

    Quora makes downloading Poe so painful I would’ve given up if it wasn’t for this blog! But anything for you guys. 🙂

    You enter your phone number and get a text verification code. Okay, whew, done…right?

    Wrong. Next you have to enter your e-mail and get another verification code there!

    Are we talking to a chatbot or launching a missile?

    But once you’re in, Poe is actually pretty cool. I asked the same question to all 3 bots on offer.

    Let’s see who wins!

    First up: OpenAI’s Sage. “What are the most important things for angel investors to know?” I asked.



    Sage’s answer is decent, but too abstract. It advises me to “have a plan to manage” risks — but what should the plan be?

    A better answer would tell me to diversify.

    You see the same problem throughout Sage’s response. It tells me to pay attention to investment time horizon, but gives me no idea what the time horizon is!

    Somewhat useful, but woefully incomplete.

    On to Dragonfly, also from OpenAI…

    Dragonfly’s answer is pithy and more helpful. It tells us to diversify our bets, one of the most important things angels should know.

    But Dragonfly is also too abstract. It tells me to be comfortable with the terms of the investment.

    Uh, yeah. But what do good terms look like?

    Okay Claude, we’re counting on you…

    Claude’s answer is by far the best. It tells us to limit risk and be aware of the time horizon, just like Sage.

    But unlike Sage, it tells us how to limit risk and what the time horizon is! This is a dramatically more useful answer.

    Claude also tells us not to rely on “hype or gut feel.” If only we’d had this in 2021!

    If Poe can fix the glaring usability problems, it could be very popular. But Quora’s real play may be in AI infrastructure.

    Poe plans to offer an API to give developers a plug-and-play chatbot UI. This would let programmers turn any AI tool into a bot.

    The API opportunity could be huge. Just like Stripe made integrating payments easy, Poe could be the go-to for turning your code into a usable product.

    Soon, we may be able to plug into specialized data sets in seconds and answer any question. How awesome would that be?

    What do you think of Poe and other AI chatbots?

    Leave a comment and let me know!

    More on tech:

    The Hard Thing About Hard Things

    Consumer Startups: What Works and What Doesn’t

    ChatGPT for Medicine

    Get the blog before anyone else…subscribe!

    If you found this post interesting, please share it on Twitter/Reddit/etc. This helps more people find the blog! 

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

    Photo: “Edgar Allen Poe house” by the__photographer is licensed under CC BY-NC 2.0.

  • Selling to consumers is hard. They can be fickle, hard to pin down, and just plain cheap.


    Get the blog before anyone else…subscribe!


    As an investor, I’ve seen some business models work better than others. Let’s break down what works and what doesn’t in consumer:

    Marketplaces

    Marketplaces have been my biggest consumer success stories. What’s great about marketplaces is that they’re pretty easy to monetize.

    If you sell a car, everyone expects you to take a percentage of the sale. And the price is high enough that even one sale generates significant revenue.

    But transactions don’t have to be big.

    Food delivery is another model I’ve had success with. The transactions are small but frequent, and everyone expects to pay a fee.

    It’s no coincidence that the biggest successes in consumer, like Uber and Airbnb, are usually marketplaces.

    Consumer Subscriptions

    In my experience, these companies have not been that successful.

    It’s tough to get consumers to pay for software. Even when they do, they’re likely to cancel quickly.

    The price of most consumer subscriptions is fairly low, maybe $10 or $20 a month. This makes it hard to afford customer acquisition.

    I recently met with a startup that had a Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) and Lifetime Value (LTV) that were equal. This means every penny customers give them goes out the door to get another customer.

    A business model like that can’t work.

    That said, some consumer subscriptions take off. Calm is a huge success, with a valuation in the billions.

    But most successful consumer subscriptions, like Netflix or Disney Plus, are streaming services.

    Those take huge amounts of money to run. Few startups can compete.

    Consumer Social

    This is generally even harder than subscriptions.

    Given the low value of each customer, advertising is usually out of the question. This means you have to go viral.

    But how?

    Unlike building a B2B sales team, there’s no readily repeatable way to go viral. Or if there is, only Nikita Bier seems to know it. 🙂

    Monetization is tough. People usually won’t pay for a social app, and ads don’t pay much either.

    And don’t forget the incumbents! It’s pretty hard to get people to use your little app instead of Instagram or Tik Tok.

    D2C

    D2C is the most difficult type of consumer business.

    These startups involve physical products. That means messy, hard to scale, low-margin “stuff.”

    Supply chains get tangled. Cut-rate imitators pop up daily.

    You also face the same problem with customer acquisition as consumer subscription companies. The only difference — your margins are even lower, making it harder to afford ads.

    Even the biggest outcomes in D2C are modest compared to pure software companies. Two of the most iconic D2C brands, Warby Parker and Allbirds, are valued at $1.7 billion and $400 million respectively.

    Compare that to $70 billion for Uber and $69 billion for Airbnb.

    Wrap-Up

    Today, SaaS is the darling of investors. Indeed, the vast majority of my investments are SaaS companies.

    But it’s important to distinguish between consumer business models.

    Look for marketplaces that can transact tons of value, either in big transactions (Airbnb) or numerous small ones (Uber).

    What do you think of consumer today? Leave a comment and let me know!

    Have a great weekend everyone!

    More on tech:

    The Hard Thing About Hard Things

    I Like Big TAM’s and I Cannot Lie!

    Google is Losing the AI Race

    Get the blog before anyone else…subscribe!

    If you found this post interesting, please share it on Twitter/Reddit/etc. This helps more people find the blog! 

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

    Photo: “Brian Chesky and Travis Kalanick” by TechCrunch is licensed under CC BY 2.0.

  • What if you could ask the best scientists on earth any question you want, any time? New chatbots are making that a reality.


    Get the blog before anyone else…subscribe!


    Consensus searches 200 million scholarly publications to answer questions on medicine, science, and even economics. Let’s give it a try!

    I love going outside in the morning with my coffee. I get a little sun, which I vaguely suspect is good for me, and look at the sky.

    On a day like today with a calendar full of meetings, is this still worth doing? Let’s find out what the science says about the benefits of sunlight:

    Instantly, Consensus pulls up an answer to my question. It explains how morning sunlight can help circadian rhythms.

    It also cites a specific source, and notes the quality of the journal. This result comes from a top publication.

    So cool! Let’s compare that to Google Scholar:

    Google Scholar just gives me the traditional page of links. I get weird, context-less snippets of text that only kinda sorta answer my question.

    Better than nothing, but nowhere near as useful as Consensus. Now let’s try ChatGPT.

    ChatGPT’s answer is pretty good and well-organized. But since it has no citations, we have no idea if the information is reliable.

    ChatGPT simply isn’t designed to answer scientific questions.

    It was trained on data including books and Reddit posts. But as far as we know, it hasn’t been trained on scientific papers.

    Consensus isn’t the only chatbot for science. Microsoft recently released BioGPT, a chatbot trained on biomedical literature.

    Will these bots replace doctors? I don’t think so.

    Instead, doctors, scientists, and curious laymen will use these tools to make research easier. With better access to the latest data, they can make better decisions.

    After all, nail guns didn’t replace carpenters.

    I’m very bullish on AI chatbots trained on niche data sets. That data could be scientific papers, court cases, or computer code, just to name a few.

    I’m also excited about data brokers. Someone has to collect all this data and get it to the people who need it.

    If you’re working on such a company, I want to hear from you!

    In just a few weeks, we’ve gone from general purpose chatbots to a profusion of tools for science, medicine, and more. We are living through a Cambrian explosion of technology.

    I’m here for it!

    How do you think AI will change science? Leave a comment at the bottom and let me know!

    More on tech:

    GPT-Powered Search with Perplexity AI

    Google is Losing the AI Race

    The Hard Thing About Hard Things

    Get the blog before anyone else…subscribe!

    If you found this post interesting, please share it on Twitter/Reddit/etc. This helps more people find the blog! 

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Many startups I invested in are coming back and asking for more. So how do I decide to double down — or cut my losses?


    Get the blog before anyone else…subscribe!


    Here’s how I approach follow-on funding:

    Performance

    I want to see startups triple revenue year over year after I invest. This level of growth shows they’re finding product market fit.

    The best companies grow fast. Meanwhile, those with weak products or a poor sales strategy struggle to sign new customers.

    But growth has to be efficient. I like to see a startup burning no more than $2-3 to add $1 of new Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR).

    New Investors

    Are any new investors joining this round? Or are existing investors just hoping to save a failing company?

    If the founder could not find a new investor who wanted to make a bet on the business, that’s a strong negative signal.

    Runway

    This fundraise has to give the company enough money to ride out today’s tough market. I like to see startups raise enough cash for 24 months or more.

    If the founder is only raising a small round to survive another couple of months, it’s likely a bridge to nowhere.

    The Founder

    Has the founder shown good leadership in these tough times? Has he taken responsibility for mistakes and kept investors updated?

    If so, that makes me a lot more likely to open the checkbook.

    How Much to Invest

    I recently re-invested in a startup I first backed in 2021. They increased revenue by 5x in a year and brought in a new lead at a higher valuation.

    Re-investing was a pretty easy choice. But how much should I put in?

    I Invested about 2.5 times as much as my initial check. If the company keeps performing like this, I want to do about the same in their next round.

    In all, I like to invest 4-5 times as much money in follow-on as I do in the first investment.

    This lets me concentrate capital in winners. I also avoid major exposure to companies that are struggling.

    The Human Factor

    It’s very hard to say no to a hard working founder who’s trying his best.

    Unfortunately, it’s also our job. If we don’t want to make tough decisions, we shouldn’t be in this business.

    Even if I can’t re-invest, I’m happy to support the founder in other ways. I can introduce them to potential employees and business partners, provide advice, etc.

    Done right, follow-on funding is a super power.

    It increases my exposure to the best companies while minimizing my exposure to struggling ones. It gets money to the companies most likely to change the world.

    How do you think about follow-on investments? Leave a comment and let me know!

    More on tech:

    The Hard Thing About Hard Things

    I Like Big TAM’s and I Cannot Lie!

    GPT-Powered Search with Perplexity AI

    Get the blog before anyone else…subscribe!

    If you found this post interesting, please share it on Twitter/Reddit/etc. This helps more people find the blog! 

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order.