Tremendous

An angel investor's take on life and business

  • “Can I have something to eat?” “Sure thing.” The man’s friend hands him an apple. His friend is not human — it is a robot.

    This is the latest demo from Figure. Figure is developing an android, with the goal to produce one for every human on the planet.

    This video is truly one of the most amazing things I’ve seen in my entire life.

    “Indistinguishable From Magic”

    The man speaks to the robot the same way you would to a person. The entire conversation is very natural and smooth, although the robot’s responses are slightly delayed as it processes information.

    Note that the man, Figure AI engineer Corey Lynch, didn’t tell the robot to give him an apple. He just said he was hungry.

    The robot took that information and went to the next logical step — hand the man an apple!

    This robot can reason like we do. That makes it a very powerful tool.

    But what amazed me the most was the hands. Look how perfectly Figure grips things, and how gently it places them where they’re supposed to be!

    Incredible.

    How Figure Works

    Figure robots are using a multimodal model developed in partnership with OpenAI. It takes in images and sound. Then, it gives responses with a voice and certain movements it knows.

    This video isn’t faked.

    The robot was not operated by remote control. It’s shown at 1x speed, and not edited. The voice from the robot isn’t a human one — it’s Figure’s own voice.

    I’m writing this on Friday morning. Just yesterday, I thought, “How long until someone puts something like ChatGPT Voice into one of these Figure robots?”

    Turns out Figure had already done it the day before.

    That’s how fast things are moving. What is Figure working on right now that they’ll demo next month and blow us all away?

    What Will Figure Do Next?

    Imagine if I said “Hey Figure, put together this Ikea desk for me” and it fully assembled a desk. That would be truly incredible, proving its ability to reason and manipulate the physical world better than most of us!

    If Figure could do that, it could probably do most manufacturing jobs. At that point, it’s just a question of building lots of them at a reasonable price.

    Figure could also go places we’ve never been.

    Fast Forward to 2050

    Don’t forget, Figure wasn’t the only incredible demo this week. SpaceX’s Starship hit orbit for the first time yesterday!

    Imagine 2050…

    Starship is headed to Mars, with a crew of both Figure robots and humans. After 6 months, they land in New New York.

    Throughout the city, more Figures are building houses and parks. Let’s go to the new park…

    I can hear the children laugh. I can see the robots in the distance, growing food.

    When those children grow old, they could get a new robotic knee, or even a new leg. Perhaps they’d augment their arms too to make them stronger.

    Humans and robots will coexist. And in time, it may be hard to tell which is which.

    Some day, I will shake Figure’s hand. When I do, I will know the world is different.

    What do you think of the Figure robot? Leave a comment and let us know!

    Have a wonderful weekend, everybody!

    If you enjoyed this post, subscribe for more like this.

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    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

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  • Is this place open? I went around to a side door, down a few steps, and entered the dimly lit restaurant. Inside: the best noodles in town.

    This is Bangkok City, a Thai restaurant in Hoboken, NJ. This homey spot has served up pad thai, drunken noodles, and more since 1989.

    I stopped in last Saturday during a rainstorm. Coming out of the gale into this quiet, calm atmosphere felt really good.

    I perused the lengthy menu, unsure what to choose. An embarrassment of riches!

    Mee grob
    Pad thai

    Ah, there’s Tim*! Tim and I are on a food tour of Hudson County, with a new spot or two every weekend. We hadn’t been to Bangkok City in a while, and the noodles were calling our names.

    I settled on the pad thai, a classic. Tim ordered drunken noodles with chicken.

    In an act of depraved gluttony, we also ordered the fried noodle appetizer. It’s Tim’s favorite.

    If we didn’t get it, what kind of friend would I be? 🙂

    We caught up on each other’s weeks and enjoyed the calm atmosphere. After a whirlwind of meetings and errands, this was the right place to unwind.

    Ooh, noodles!

    These fried noodles, served with shrimp and tamarind sauce, are called mee grob in Thai. Mee grob quite a few. 🙂

    Almost as soon as they appeared, the fried noodles were gone. Well, I guess I can eat light tomorrow!

    Tofu

    A good friend of ours, Matt*, actually lives in rural Thailand for most of the year. To think, he gets to eat like this all the time!

    Perhaps when he comes back this summer, we’ll take him here.

    Pad thai time. I boldly dumped sriracha all over my entree — caution to the wind!

    Holy moly, that’s hot!

    This isn’t grocery store sriracha. This is the real deal.

    The noodles were supple, the bean sprouts crispy and fresh. There was also a vegetable I couldn’t identify — it was a little like daikon, the Japanese radish. I’m not sure what it was, but it was delicious!

    What really makes the pad thai is the peanuts. I would never have thought of that. But then I didn’t need to — the good people of Thailand already did.

    Tim made serious inroads on the drunken noodles, and I cadged a few for myself.

    They were perfectly cooked, neither too soft nor too firm. Not easy to do!

    Oof, I’m stuffed. Time to get the bill.

    As we were about to leave, the waitress asked if I wanted one more glass of water. After all that sriracha, I gladly accepted!

    Little things like that, that’s what makes great service. Noticing what a guest might need, and offering it before they even think to ask.

    And you won’t find nicer service than Bangkok City.

    Bangkok City is located on lively Washington Street in the heart of Hoboken. It’s open every day but Monday for lunch and dinner.

    Pop in for some delicious Thai in a friendly, happy atmosphere.

    What are your favorite Thai restaurants? Leave a comment and let us know!

    If you enjoyed this post, subscribe for more like this!

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    In Porto

    *Names are changed to protect privacy.

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    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

  • “Every waking moment I’m not spending with my family or in church, I’m thinking about this. Most of my sleeping moments too.”

    That’s Zach Barney, Founder and CEO of Mobly. Mobly makes it easy for outside sales teams to capture info about leads and turn them into customers, fast.

    Ever been to a big corporate trade show? You meet a ton of people in quick succession — and good luck keeping track of them.

    Mobly makes tracking those new prospects easy.

    You can scan their badge or business card or just input their name. Mobly enriches that contact with over 20 fields, including their social media accounts.

    Then, Mobly pushes all that data to your CRM automatically.

    Now it’s easy to contact your leads via text, email or phone call. And you can do it all from your phone, not a clunky laptop.

    Mobly gets you more sales, faster.

    No wonder customers love it. Mobly has a 5.0 star average on G2, with scores of reviews.

    Check out Mobly and take your sales team to the next level! 

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    Control a Robot with Your Vision Pro!

    Would You Get Microchipped?

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • If the Vision Pro wasn’t wild enough for you, how about controlling a robot with it? A team at MIT just did, and the results are incredible.

    Developed by PhD student Younghyo Park, this new tool lets you control a robot just by gesturing with your hand. Fellow grad student Gabe Margolis pantomimes opening a door, and a robot dog grasps the handle and opens it!

    The system appears to be able to mimic any human motion. Gabe also has the robot walk around, pick up a trash can lid, and open another door.

    You can use this yourself, provided you have a Vision Pro and a robot.

    First, download the Vision Pro app, which is called Tracking Streamer. Then, run some Python code and you’re in business! The GitHub repository is here.

    These demos are awesome. They got me really excited!

    But the real world applications are even more amazing.

    The first things that come to mind for me are police and military. What if police could have a robot enter a room where a hostage situation is taking place — perhaps even picking the lock?

    Already, police and military use robots like the FirstLook from Teledyne. But those platforms can only do so much.

    The FirstLook, for example, is controlled by a tablet. You can’t just pantomime an action and have the robot do it.

    Humans with Vision Pros controlling a robot could be helpful in other dangerous situations, like mining or hazardous waste disposal. Why should any human have to risk their lives doing this?

    Congratulations to Younghyo on his incredible work. I think we’re going to be hearing a lot more from this guy…

    What would you do with a Vision Pro and a robot dog? Leave a comment and let us know!

    If you enjoyed this post, subscribe for more like this!

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    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 


  • Note: This is not medical advice. I have absolutely zero qualifications in medicine. I’m only writing about this for general interest and entertainment purposes.


    Do you want to get microchipped? Patri Friedman just did it — and it even unlocks his Tesla.

    Getting Branded

    Patri got the chip in Prospera, Honduras. Prospera is a charter city with some very unusual laws. And they just happen to allow implanting chips in people, if the patient consents.

    The procedure went so well, Patri was able to do an interview with the Just Asking Questions podcast from ReasonTV the next day!

    In the interview, Patri explains that his chip is just a passive device with an ID inside.

    Bump phones with him, and you get his contact info. When he goes to open his Tesla, it unlocks itself.

    How It Works

    Patri’s chip behaves kind of like an API: it just contains a key that shows his identity. That key could be fed to any number of applications, enabling more and more actions.

    Theoretically, Patri should also be able to unlock his house, pay for dinner, and a whole lot more. All that’s missing is the right software to do it.

    Engineers could build apps for Patri’s chip. Then, all you need is a garden-variety NFC scanner like the one in your iPhone you use for Apple Pay.

    Wild, isn’t it?

    Biohacking as a Service

    People appear to have been implanting chips under their skin since at least 2005.

    I spoke with Patri on Twitter, where he went into some interesting detail on his experience.

    Is This the Future?

    There’s no way around it: microchipping yourself is weird. I like that Patri embraces that, but I’m not sure I want to.

    I love using new technology. But even if implanting my chip doesn’t give me an infection, the idea still makes me queasy.

    I may tweet a lot, but believe it or not I really value privacy.

    On the other hand, our phones are already in our hands all the time. Is a chip really so different?

    In the near term, the more likely form factor is a ring. Engineer Julia Pak in Canada has already done it.

    That, I’d try, especially for payments. Imagine buying groceries with your finger…you won’t even need your phone!

    And if you don’t want to be tracked right now, just slip it off.

    Wrap-Up

    “We’re goin’ to a new age, pal,” as Gordon Gekko said in the original Wall Street.

    What amazes me most is how common and off-the-shelf this technology is. Add in the right medical personnel, and you could have one in your hand (or anywhere else) lickety split.

    Like it or not, this is probably the future. But I’m not so sure I want to be an early adopter.

    Would you get chipped? Why or why not?

    Leave a comment and let us know!

    If you enjoyed this post, subscribe for more like this!

    Correction: A prior version of this post had some inaccurate details about Patri’s chip. Patri cleared that up and the version above reflects his corrections. Thanks so much Patri, and congrats on being a part of the future! 🙂

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    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • More than anything else, I need to know these 2 things about your startup. What do you do, and what’s your traction?

    This morning, I was looking through a ton of decks I just got from Mercury Raise. This is an awesome program that connects founders and investors.

    Some of the decks are way better than others. So how do you, as a founder, stand out?

    I need to know 2 things as soon as possible…

    1) What Do You Do? It sounds simple. But it’s not.

    You would not believe how many decks I look at where I cannot tell what the heck the company does.

    “We help teams collaborate at warp speed.” Okay, that sounds peachy keen, but what do you actually do?

    “We democratize access to tools creators need.” Okay, but what do you do?

    37 slides in, I still don’t know. 😫

    Here’s a better way…

    “We get you a ride from Point A to Point B faster and cheaper than anyone else.” That’s Uber. Pretty great company, right?

    “We find you a spare room in someone’s house that’s cheaper than a hotel.” That’s Airbnb. And already from that pitch, I’m thinking of becoming a customer…

    Real talk: I looked at 20 decks this morning. If I don’t see something compelling in short order, I’m on to the next.

    Please, please, please, tell me what you’re doing and make it clear.

    I don’t know anything about your product or your market. You have to explain it to me like I’m 5.

    2) What’s your traction?

    Let’s say you get #1 right. I understand what you do and I’m interested.

    But what reason do I have to think you’re succeeding?

    That’s where traction comes in…

    Here’s an example: “We’re at $250k ARR growing 20% MoM.”

    Okay, that’s awesome traction! I’m already itching to meet you.

    Let’s say you don’t have that yet. What else could traction look like?

    “We launched this month and already we have 3 paying customers.” That’s awesome — I’d probably want to meet that company.

    What if you don’t even have that?

    “We have an MVP, two beta customers, and a team of 4 builders working day and night.”

    That’s a pretty early stage company, but it sounds compelling, doesn’t it? I’d meet those guys.

    Here’s what’s not compelling:

    “We have an advisory board of industry experts.”

    I don’t care about your advisors. They’re not going to build the company. The founders are.

    “We won a competition at ABC Startup Pitch Night.”

    Hey, that’s awesome and congrats. But in terms of investment, it doesn’t mean much. Better to leave it out.

    “We have 10 LOI’s from enterprise customers.”

    Jason Calacanis calls these “Letters of Nothing.” They generally don’t convert.

    Stick to concrete signs of traction: revenue, customers, product, team.

    Wrap-Up

    It’s Friday, and I could’ve given you feel good stuff for a Friday. But today, I decided to just give it to you straight.

    Happy talk won’t get you venture capital. But nailing your deck might.

    Tell me right away: here’s exactly what we do, and here are signs it’s working.

    Do that, and your chances of raising money just skyrocketed.

    Let’s practice this in the comments. What does your startup do, and what’s your traction?

    Who knows, maybe I’ll find a great deal in there! 🙂

    Have a wonderful weekend, everybody!

    If you enjoyed this post, subscribe for more like this!

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    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • “If you don’t know that, then I know more about this market than you do. And that’s a problem.”

    I sat in the audience at a demo day in New York last year, cringing big time. A VC was criticizing a founder onstage, and I had had about enough.

    The young founder had just pitched his company, an early stage healthcare startup.

    The VC was the judge. But he wasn’t just judging this founder’s pitch — he was browbeating him.

    I actually thought the pitch was pretty good. But the VC claimed to have some familiarity with the market, and was convinced this young entrepreneur knew nothing.

    Lately, I’ve been thinking about this incident a lot. It got me thinking about how founders and investors get along…

    Time and again, I see investors acting as if they’re above founders. Smarter, wiser, and of course richer.

    These investors don’t understand what their job is. Their job isn’t to tear people down — it’s to cooperate with them and build something big!

    Perhaps the VC did know more about this market than the founder.

    Great! Help him out, and give him some useful ideas!

    But there are nicer ways to do it. The VC could’ve said something like “Hey, I used to work in this area, have you thought of doing X? I’ve seen it work well for other companies.”

    At that point, they’re having a conversation, rather than an auto da fé.

    And let’s not forget the truth that investors love to hide from.

    The founder is in this business every day. We’re parachuting in for a few minutes.

    We don’t know much about it!

    The best we can do is help you think through some problems and offer a couple of ideas we’ve seen work. We shouldn’t act like we know all the answers, because we don’t.

    If an investor does need to have a more frank, difficult conversation with a founder, okay. Do it in private.

    Don’t do it on a stage in New York City in front of 50 people.

    I’m all for asking founders tough questions. Anyone who’s met with me will probably tell you that I asked them for tons of details.

    And yes, in the end, I’ll be passing on most of these companies. That’s the business we’re in.

    But there’s a way to do that without being a jerk.

    That’s what I’m aiming for. And if I fall short, please, let me know so I can correct it.

    What do you want to see from investors, and what don’t you want to see? Leave a comment and let us know!

    If you enjoyed this post, subscribe for more like this!

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    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • I was trying to find some info on startup valuations this afternoon. I kept prompting GPT-4, but I couldn’t get the right answer. Turns out, I should’ve let the AI prompt itself.

    Or at least that’s the conclusion of a team from VMware. From IEEE Spectrum:

    There is an alternative to the trial-and-error style prompt engineering that yielded such inconsistent results: Ask the language model to devise its own optimal prompt. Recently, new tools have been developed to automate this process. Given a few examples and a quantitative success metric, these tools will iteratively find the optimal phrase to feed into the LLM. [VMware engineer Rick] Battle and his collaborators found that in almost every case, this automatically generated prompt did better than the best prompt found through trial-and-error. And, the process was much faster, a couple of hours rather than several days of searching.

    Teams from Stanford and Google DeepMind are behind those cutting edge tools to automate prompting. And they’re not alone.

    In the Claude 3 Opus as an Economic Analyst demo we covered on the blog yesterday, Claude repeatedly prompts itself.

    When I saw the “DISPATCH_SUBAGENTS,” my eyes opened really wide. How long until we don’t say “Jim in accounting, please do this” or even “Claude, please do this” but rather “Claude, prompt yourself in an ideal way in order to do this”?

    In time, Claude will probably have auto-prompting built in. So will every other major AI model.

    At that point, reinforcement learning becomes the key.

    If we can label Claude’s outputs as good or bad, Claude can refine its prompts. Then, we’ll get even better results.

    As the models get more and more powerful, Claude may need only a little reinforcement learning to improve drastically. And in time, maybe it will understand our goals so well that it even does the reinforcement learning itself too!

    I’d love to tell you I know where all this is going.

    I sure would seem smart, wouldn’t I? And we investors love that.

    But I don’t know.

    All I can do is carefully follow what’s going on, talk to great people, use the products, and think. And you can bet, I’ll be doing that.

    Where do you think AI is headed? Leave a comment and let us know!

    If you enjoyed this post, subscribe for more like this!

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    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • What if we had an AI Copilot for the economy? Yesterday, Anthropic released what amounts to a beta, and it’s already got amazing capabilities.

    Check this video out:

    In the demo, Anthropic uses its AI to project the GDP of the US and other major countries into the future. Everything is charted beautifully and based in the latest data.

    Imagine how many grad students it would take to pull all this together! Instead, Anthropic’s newest and most powerful model, Claude 3 Opus, performs the analysis in minutes.

    AI Prompts Itself

    The coolest thing about this demo was the “Dispatch Subagents” tool.

    Claude takes the problem “Project GDP for major economies” and breaks it into parts. Then it reprompts itself many times to find data on each country.

    Next, it projects the data forward using an econometric model. And finally, it charts the results.

    Bring Me Supertyler!

    Watching this demo was really exciting! Right before my eyes, I could see the future happen.

    I knew of one man who’d appreciate it more than anyone: economist Tyler Cowen.

    I tweeted the demo at him, and he retweeted it! As a huge Marginal Revolution fanboy, this might be the moment my life peaked. 🙂

    Claude is not going to replace a very skilled economist like Tyler. But it could make Tyler 100x more effective.

    Call him Supertyler.

    Economy Copilot: The Next Step

    Although I can’t wait to meet Supertyler, the future of AI and economics will be even more exciting than that.

    Imagine an Economy Copilot. For any policy we’re considering, we can ask Economy Copilot “What will be the effect on our economy?”

    Right now, a lot of people are upset about immigration. But the US desperately needs workers to fill our countless open jobs.

    So what should we do? Let’s ask Economy Copilot…

    Francis: We’re thinking of closing the border. What will happen to the economy if we do?

    Economy Copilot: Closing the border is likely to reduce GDP per capita by 10% due to a lack of workers. This will cost the average American about $7,000 per year.

    When you put it in those terms, who’s going to be okay with that? And Economy Copilot has no preference of its own…it’s just crunching numbers.

    How Economy Copilot Could Change Politics Forever

    Politicians might not use Economy Copilot, but voters will. Indeed, lots of people are already using Claude, ChatGPT, and other models that may soon have this capability.

    If voters see “$7,000 less for you every year forever,” they’re going to be really mad. And some will tell their Congressman to vote against that new “Seal the Border” bill.

    Some users may get results from Economy Copilot and say that it’s “woke”. Others may say it has a right-wing bias.

    But I think most people will believe the AI model.

    Some research indicates that we view results from AI as more objective than human decisions. From a study of decisions on job applications, published last year:

    Upon evaluating a job seeker’s suitability for a position, participants viewed algorithmic decisions as fairer, more competent, more trustworthy, and more useful than those made by humans. Interestingly, when a candidate was deemed unsuitable for hiring, people reacted more negatively to the verdict given by a human than to the same judgment offered by AI. 

    Wrap-Up

    A world with Economy Copilot is a better world. Today, we often can’t agree on basic facts, much less what conclusion to draw from them.

    Any tool to better analyze data and come to rational conclusions will help!

    What do you think of the Claude demo? Leave a comment and let us know!

    If you enjoyed this post, subscribe for more like this!

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    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • ChatGPT just aced BYU’s intro to comp sci class, getting a perfect 100% for the entire course. But AI’s latest achievement doesn’t mean human programmers are over.

    AI Goes to College

    BYU’s Computer Science 110 is called simply “How to Program.” It’s BYU’s most basic computer science class, covering stuff like variables, if-then statements, and simple algos.

    BYU doesn’t let actual human students use any form of AI for Comp Sci 110. My kneejerk reaction as a technophile is “that’s stupid” — but their reasoning convinced me.

    From the syllabus:

    These tools are pretty cool and fun to use. They’re kind of like using a calculator, but for writing code. Depending on the problem, your mileage may vary in how effective these tools are: they do pretty well on the simple stuff, and sometimes do alright on harder stuff. These tools are not very good at breaking down complex problems into smaller pieces, which is a fundamental learning outcome of the course.

    Just how it would be impossible to excel in an advanced math class if you had to constantly pull out a calculator for every simple addition or multiplication problem, you will not be prepared to program anything but the most primitive pieces of code if you do not practice the basics we present in class.

    BYU doesn’t tell students not to use Copilot outside class. In fact, they’ll even get you a free license!

    But using it on class assignments and exams is verboten. To quote Comp Sci Professor Porter Jenkins:

    “…they become so much of a crutch for people, especially young people, that we sort of collectively lose the ability to think.”

    Why We Have to Learn Without AI at First

    Imagine if way back in 1st grade in 1992, I had used a calculator to learn addition. For the rest of my life, I kept doing it that way, because it’s all I know.

    Now in 2024, you ask me “Francis, what’s 5 + 3?”

    I would know how to punch the numbers into a calculator. And I’d know how to read you the result, “8!”

    But I would have no idea what any of this really means.

    The same principles apply with code.

    AI + Humans Wins

    I’ve always wanted an app to find firewood stands. When I go camping in a new area, finding a stand with decent wood at a reasonable price can be difficult.

    So this morning, I used the newest models from Anthropic to spin up the basics of an app. Let’s call it Woody.

    It does a great job! In seconds, I have the basics of my new app.

    But I’ve never used React. So, I don’t really understand what Claude gave me.

    If this code ever has a problem, I won’t know how to fix it. I also don’t know much about how to make it better, other than just to ask Claude again.

    Maybe I could get the app up and running anyway. But now imagine if I’m also competing with Jim and his new FireStand app.

    Jim knows React inside and out. And he has access to AI too!

    Who do you think is gonna win here?

    Wrap-Up

    In time, I think we’ll see software development start to look a lot like chess.

    The best chess players in the world aren’t humans on their own. And they’re not computer programs either.

    The best chess players on earth are humans using computer programs. The program makes suggestions, and the skilled human makes the ultimate decision.

    That’s where software is headed. In fact, that’s where knowledge work as a whole is headed.

    But you can’t get there if you let the AI do all your thinking for you.

    Where do you think software is heading? Leave a comment and let us know!

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    Photo: “When Computers Were Human” by NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center is licensed under CC BY-NC 2.0.