New law firms will be 95% AI. They will bill at low, flat rates. And they will crush existing firms. 

Clients want lower, predictable bills. New AI-native law firms are in the best position to provide that. 

This new world will create a handful of winners. But most lawyers, firms and law schools are in deep trouble. 

How New, AI Native Law Firms Win

Here’s what the new, AI native firms will look like…

Instead of a team of ten associates and one partner working on a deal, picture one associate and one partner. The partner is handling the face-to-face relationship with the client. The associate is mostly running a bunch of Claude agents.

These firms can put in low bids at flat rates because their costs are so much lower.

AI native firms are already cropping up. Crosby recently raised $60 million from Index, Lux and Sequoia. 

A handful of top partners at these new, AI-native firms will make way more money than any lawyer makes today. Think hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars. 

Those top partners will be recognizable leaders in their field. They will build client trust.

But most of the actual work will be done by computers. 

Existing Firms Can’t Compete

Big firms today do a little flat-rate work. Their clients demand it.

But they can never fully switch away from the billable hour. 

Old school firms have an enormous number of lawyers on the payroll. To feed those mouths, they need to bill lots of hours.

AI native firms will win one client after another. Clients will find their low-cost, flat-rate bids irresistible.

Slowly losing business, many old school firms will wither away. 

Law Grads and Law Schools Left Behind

AI doing most legal work means we need a lot fewer lawyers.

Law grads will have a harder time finding work. As their unemployment rate rises, fewer people will go to law school.

This will affect lower-tier law schools and their graduates first. Then, it will expand into mid-tier schools.

Harvard and Stanford aren’t going anywhere. But everyone else will shrink or shut down. 

Finite Work vs. Infinite Work

If you make software engineers 10x more productive with AI, you actually might hire more engineers. 

These supercoders can build you new features customers love. You sell more software and your business expands. 

Software engineering is “infinite work.” There’s no limit to how much we might want. 

But AI doesn’t boost lawyers in the same way. Legal services are “finite work” — we only want so much of it. 

Eventually, you’ve negotiated all your customer contracts, handled any lawsuits, and you’re good to go. You just don’t need any more legal work. 

When AI takes work away from human lawyers, most human lawyers lose. 

Wrap-Up

The biggest winner in all this is clients. 

Clients will get lower, predictable bills. Their work will be done faster and more reliably. 

A legal market transformed by AI is great for most of us. But for most lawyers, it’s a crisis.

As legal work becomes software, law is headed to the same winner take all dynamics we see in tech.

The winners will become fabulously rich. The rest will be left behind.

More on tech: 

How OpenAI and Anthropic Will Crush Harvey and Legora

Request for Startups: American-Made Solar, Rare Earths and Next Gen Drones

SaaS Is Cheaper Than Ever — But It’s Not Going Anywhere

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