“China’s past thirty years of economic growth has been impressive, but they’ve also left the People’s Republic with roughly the per person income of Mexico. Nobody worries about Mexico dominating twenty-first-century power politics or asks how we’re going to stop them from winning the future.
The difference is there are 130 million Mexicans, 330 million Americans, and 1,300 million Chinese people.”
That’s One Billion Americans by Matthew Yglesias. I’ve been meaning to read this book for years. Last week, I finally picked up a copy.
Matt makes a brilliant argument about why America is under threat and how we can stay on top. But when he tells us how to fix it, he falls short.
Staying On Top
America is not perfect. But a world dominated by America is a much better planet than one dominated by China.
China has imprisoned over 1 million Uyghur Muslims who have committed no crime. The Communist Party surveils its people and punishes any dissent mercilessly.
For America to remain the most powerful country, we need the largest economy. As China’s economy grows, we’re in danger of slipping to #2.
But if we grew our population rapidly, we’d leave China in the dust.
This is the crux of Matt’s argument. It’s very original and very insightful. I agree 100%.
Boosting Fertility
America’s fertility rate today is 1.67. At this rate, we are not replacing ourselves.
Without immigration, population decline is assured.
Matt prescribes a ton of new welfare policies in order to get that rate up. Free childcare, housing subsidies, you name it.
The problem is, subsidies for families as a way to boost fertility have failed everywhere they’ve been tried.
Hungary went so far as to spend 5% of GDP on these payments. Fertility jumped briefly, then settled right back down to where it was (a dismal 1.36).
As I write this, our country is $36 trillion in debt. Shoveling trillions more at programs that don’t work will bankrupt us.
Instead, the government should fund research on extending fertility. If women could have babies reliably throughout their 40’s, families would be highly likely to grow.
We could fund a ton of this research for just a few billion dollars.
New Americans
In addition to boosting fertility, Matt urges us to go all-in on immigration. He’s absolutely right: if America can grab the most talented people from all over the world, there will be no stopping us.
My favorite proposal of Matt’s is to allow open immigration from all our NATO allies.
These folks are well-educated, English speaking, and friendly to America. This should be a no brainer, although I’d require they be college educated to make sure they can succeed in our job market.
Immigration should be a growth strategy. Bring in highly skilled people, let them build new things, and everyone benefits.
We should let in anyone from anywhere on earth with a STEM degree from a decent college and a clean police record. These people will create new companies and new technologies that will keep America on top.
Wrap-Up
Although this book came out in September 2020, parts of it feel very dated. This is no reflection on Matt’s writing. It’s because the world is changing really fast.
Matt’s proposed investments in transit seem much less relevant in a world of Zoom and robotaxis. And his calls for higher government spending are hard to square with today’s high inflation.
I also would’ve liked to see a concrete plan for getting to one billion people. How many immigrants do we need per year for how long?
But overall, One Billion Americans is very much worth reading. Matt is one of the few people to point out a serious danger to our country and propose a radical fix.
I hope to see America grow and prosper, filled with the best people on earth.
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