Tremendous

An angel investor's take on life and business

  • Onieals: Where They’re Gonna Know My Name

    Remember the bar in Cheers, “where everybody knows your name”? Onieals feels like that. They don’t know my name yet— but after Saturday’s dinner, they’re gonna learn it!

    My friend Tim and I continued our Jersey Food Tour this weekend. And although we dearly love Karma’s curries or Grimaldi’s pizza, we decided to switch it up.

    So I found myself relaxing at a white clothed table al fresco. Across the street: lovely Church Square Park.

    Tim slid in across. “What’s new,” I asked?

    “Not much since we had dinner last night,” he quipped. Touche, Tim.

    What to order…

    Onieals has a little of everything. Burgers, non-burger sandwiches, even shepherd’s pie and Italian food!

    I love a good burger, but I’m watching my meat intake. So I went with the crab cake sandwich.

    Is that healthy? Let’s just pretend it is.

    “Rajin’ cajun burger, medium.” Tim had no such pretensions.

    We both made sure to request mayo with the fries. Otherwise, why be here, right?

    We caught up on each other’s lives in the last 24 hours. Gym, waterfront, housework.

    When you’re good friends with someone, that’s half the fun. You don’t just report the big events. You get to report all the little stuff.

    Somehow, that dignifies everyday life.

    Ooh food!

    Before me sat a beautiful crab cake sandwich on a demi baguette. The fries were golden.

    I picked it up, worried I’d destroy its perfectness. But it survived.

    And I took a bite.

    “This bread is so good!”

    The demi baguette this sandwich is served on is absolute primo bread. That’s how you know a good restaurant — bread is never an afterthought.

    The crab was slightly spicy. The remoulade, which is made of mustard, mayo and a few other goodies, lent a nice creaminess to the sammy.

    “I’d put this burger up against Moran’s,” Tim said. That’s high praise — Moran’s has one of the best burgers I’ve ever eaten.

    Fry time. I dunked one of the golden brown fellers into the mayo.

    “These fries are amazing, so crispy” I explained, mouth probably still full of potato. But who’s counting?

    We kept our poor waiter busy with request after request. But he was so efficient that anything we wanted seemed like it was on a conveyor belt, straight to us.

    This was despite the fact that we were the only people outside! When you eat so well, and the service is so good, you want to come back.

    The thing with Onieals is it’s small, and it gets busy. So, they don’t take reservations.

    I imagine an empty table for someone who didn’t show is just too costly for this little restaurant.

    But, you can call ahead and get on the list any time you like. Or just show up!

    Waits are usually 15 minutes or less. And in the mean time, the bar is dark and convivial.

    And if Hoboken is a tunnel too far, there’s also a location in Soho! Try Onieals for great food in a warm, happy setting.

    What are your favorite restaurants? Leave a comment and let us know!

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    More on food:

    The Fragrant Curries of Karma Kafe

    Miznon: The Professors of Pita

    The Best Bakery in NYC (It’s Not Levain)

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • I Was On This Week In Startups!

    “Cynicism is the coward’s way out.”

    Jason Calacanis

    Last week, I thought, “Wouldn’t it be awesome to be on This Week in Startups some day? Maybe many years from now.”

    A couple days later, it happened!

    Jamming with JCal

    Host and angel investor Jason Calacanis was doing a Q&A session with some rabid fans. I asked Jason something I’ve been struggling with for a while.

    What’s the right balance between skepticism and enthusiasm when you look at a startup?

    Jason’s answer surprised me.

    “It’s really easy to be cynical. And what you wanna focus on is not all the things that could go wrong, it’s what could go right.”

    JCal

    I expected him to say you need X amount of enthusiasm and Y amount of skepticism. But instead, he basically said the skepticism takes care of itself.

    It’s the enthusiasm that’s harder — and more important!

    Looking back on my meetings with founders, Jason’s comments make a lot of sense. Pick any startup, and you could find 100 problems with it.

    But the question is, if everything goes right, is it another Uber? Another Google?

    If so, I want to make that bet.

    “The Vision Thing”

    I also love what Jason said about understanding the founder’s vision.

    “One of the things we’ve added to our script…when I’m training my young associates and researchers how to interact with founders is just to say at the end of the conversation, ‘Hey, can I repeat your vision back to you to make sure I understand your vision.’”

    JCal

    I’ve already started using that in my meetings. I’ve forgotten a time or too, but I’m going to work on this!

    Figuring out the founder’s vision is a great way to show respect. And if I do it right, I will truly understand the opportunity before me.

    It would be a darn shame to miss Uber because I don’t understand what Travis is doing.

    Building a Better Investment Process

    Jason and I also talked about how to build a better process for making investments.

    “In any discipline you get into, I think you eventually will start to look at systems and processes and really try to optimize those.”

    JCal

    We can’t control what happens after we make an investment. But we can control our process for finding startups and making those bets. What’s more, we can adapt the process to play to our strengths.

    Jason is more extroverted than just about anyone. He loves doing as many meetings and podcasts as he can.

    I like meeting founders too, but I’m not quite as much of a people person as Jason. I mean, who is? 🙂

    But when I’m reading a deal memo, I’m really in my element.

    It occurs to me that the company pages at YC are essentially deal memos. I can just read tons of them and contact the startups that interest me most. That’d be one great way to play to my strengths.

    Wrap-Up

    Since we had this conversation on Tuesday, Jason’s words have been on my mind.

    I’ve tried to look at these little companies and imagine them as giants many years from now. And here I am on day one, meeting them when they’re still raw and full of potential.

    Pretty great job, isn’t it? 😊

    What do you think of our little Q&A session? Leave a comment and let me know!

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    More on tech:

    Watch Brian Armstrong Practice for YC Demo Day in 2012

    GitLab’s YC Demo Day Pitch

    The Airbnb Deck

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Watch Brian Armstrong Practice for YC Demo Day in 2012

    Coinbase is one of the world’s largest crypto exchanges. Its market cap is $64 billion. But in the summer of 2012, founder Brian Armstrong was in a dimly lit Silicon Valley office, practicing his pitch.

    Let’s dig in!

    What the Heck Is Bitcoin?

    Brian does a wonderful job of explaining what bitcoin is. Don’t forget that in 2012, it was only 3 years old.

    Today, everyone knows about bitcoin. But still, startups have to pitch investors unfamiliar with their market.

    I recently met with an awesome startup working on ACATS processing. This is the process by which you move a brokerage account from one firm to another.

    Before our meeting, I had Claude teach me a little about ACATS processing. But I sure as heck didn’t know anything before that!

    Unless the investor has a background in your industry, explain everything.

    How’s It Going?

    Now that we know what bitcoin is, Brian explains why users need Coinbase.

    That existing wallet software he shows is uglier than sin. Who wouldn’t prefer something more modern?

    And sure enough, customers are flocking to Brian’s new platform. The growth in sign-ups is staggering.

    In just 70 seconds, Brian establishes the two most important things: what he does, and how it’s going.

    Clearly, this is not the first time he’s practiced.

    PG Shows Why He’s PG

    A voice pipes up from the audience. It’s Paul Graham!

    His comments are dead-on. He tells Brian to emphasize that his sign-ups are growing 20% “a day”.

    That’s such a crucial point!

    If you’re mind is wandering or you need to go to the bathroom, it would be easy to assume that chart shows month over month growth. But it’s actually daily.

    That’s a colossal difference. And it’s really strong evidence that Brian is on to something.

    Paul also asks Brian how he makes money. That would have been my biggest question.

    Turns out, Brian didn’t have a revenue model. So, it makes sense that he left that out.

    I’d like to see him try some sort of revenue model, even if he changes it later. But we have to remember, this was a very early stage company.

    Would I Have Seen It?

    Would I have seen what Coinbase could be? Would I have even met Brian?

    I’d love to tell you I would’ve seen it then. But I’m not so sure I would’ve.

    There were nearly 100 startups in Brian’s batch. Brian didn’t show us any revenue.

    I doubt I would’ve made contacting Brian a priority. But, if he contacted me, those sign-ups would be reason enough to take the meeting.

    This could be a weakness in my game.

    I’m very focused on revenue. And yes, it’s really important. But, that could lead me to miss meeting the great founders at the earliest stages.

    Hmm…

    Wrap-Up

    Even in a practice session, Brian shows us two key things: strong traction and a rapidly growing market.

    After Demo Day, my guess is his calendar was packed with investor meetings.

    What do you think of Brian’s pitch? Leave a comment and let us know!

    If you enjoyed this post, subscribe for more like this!

    More on tech:

    GitLab’s YC Demo Day Pitch

    The Airbnb Deck

    Apollo’s YC Demo Day Pitch

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Apollo’s YC Demo Day Pitch

    Sales platform Apollo is valued at $1.6 billion. But in 2016, it was a little company called ZenProspect. This morning, I watched their YC Demo Day pitch.

    https://videopress.com/v/AvD3bjd8?resizeToParent=true&cover=true&preloadContent=metadata&useAverageColor=true

    Founder Tim Zheng clearly shows us why salespeople need ZenProspect. Then, he shows us some incredible traction.

    Let’s dive in…

    A Clear Value Prop

    Tim is very clear about what his platform does and why customers need it:

    “Our product lets B2B sales people find their most lucrative potential customers, e-mail them, and close deals.”

    ZenProspect’s value proposition is clear. Pay us money, close more sales.

    An All-In-One Platform

    Tim explains that salespeople spend all day jumping between different systems. One to find prospects, another to e-mail, a CRM to track it all…I get confused just thinking about it!

    ZenProspect lets you do everything in one place. Who’s not going to at least try that for a month and see if it works?

    Financials Like I’ve Never Seen

    Tim doesn’t just tell us a great story — he’s got the numbers to back it up.

    Tim and his team have hit $1 million ARR while still in an accelerator. That is incredibly rare. GitLab did it, but I don’t know of any others.

    And believe it or not, 5x growth in a few months isn’t even the most amazing stat here.

    ZenProspect is at 70% net margins. This is so rare that Tim has to clearly explain this is net, not gross.

    In other words, of every dollar ZenProspect takes in, 70 cents hit the bottom line as profit.

    That never happens. Even Apple, notorious for high margins, clocks in at “only” about 25%.

    Best of all, Tim did all this using his own platform! If that’s not proof this thing works, I don’t know what is.

    But Can You Get an Allocation?

    Any investor who does early stage software would want to invest in this company.

    But the question is, can you get an allocation? Tim says something at the end of his pitch that’s subtle, but if you’ve been investing for a bit, you hear it…

    “If your portfolio has a company that wants to make more money, please come and find us.”

    Tim is looking for customers. But he doesn’t sound like he’s looking for investments.

    At the end of most YC Demo Day pitches I’ve seen, the founder says something like “If you want to learn more, please come and find me afterwards.”

    I suspect this company’s seed round filled up well before Demo Day. (However, I wasn’t able to find any information to confirm that.)

    This happens a lot with the best YC companies. That said, a variety of VC’s got their beak wet on this one, including All-In bestie Chamath Palihapitiya’s Social Capital.

    Wrap-Up

    Tim’s pitch is a clear winner. But it’s not so easy to recreate.

    He explains what he does and why customers want it with incredible clarity. But what will really make investors’ eyes pop out of their heads is that traction.

    Tim is great at pitching. But more importantly, he’s great at building a business.

    What do you think of Tim’s pitch? Leave a comment and let us know!

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    More on tech:

    DoorDash’s YC Demo Day Pitch

    GitLab’s YC Demo Day Pitch

    Meet My Latest Investment: Mobly

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • DoorDash’s YC Demo Day Pitch

    DoorDash is one of the most successful startups of the last decade, with a market cap of $56 billion. This morning, I watched their YC Demo Day pitch from 2013.

    Founder Tony Xu shows us a huge problem and gives us strong evidence that he’s solving it. Let’s dig into his pitch…

    Big Potential

    Right away, Tony shows us a massive opportunity. People want food delivered, but the options are pizza…and more pizza.

    Hey, pizza’s great. But sometimes you want pad thai or eggplant parm.

    Every investor in the audience could relate to this problem. And if it’s a problem everyone has, solving it is a huge opportunity.

    That’s important because VC’s only make money if a company becomes a giant. That’s the only way to pay for all the failures!

    Rapid Growth

    Okay, Tony’s on to a huge market. But can he actually capture it?

    Tony has an innovative system that plugs directly into restaurants through an iPad. Then, he gets couriers through an app, just like Uber.

    Tony gives us strong evidence that DoorDash is catching on.

    Orders have quadrupled in the last 6 weeks, reaching nearly 100 a day. That’s a lot of business for an early stage company!

    If I were in that audience, I’d be thinking, “This guy could be on to something.”

    But What About Margins?

    Tony has less than 3 minutes here, so he can only give us so much detail. But one critical question is going to be on every investor’s mind: what are the margins like?

    DoorDash could sell you a $15 plate of pad thai for $20, then pay the driver $10. If they did that, they’d lose $5 on every order.

    Half the town would be signing up for cheap pad thai, right? So order numbers would go through the roof, just like you see on Tony’s slide.

    That would be a lot of fun for the people of Palo Alto. But it wouldn’t be a viable business.

    I’d want to know if they can make money on each order.

    Given the early stage, the business would probably still be burning cash due to fixed costs. But at least it would have a path to profitability in the future.

    We also have no information on revenue here — but again, there’s only 3 minutes.

    The Verdict

    I wouldn’t have all the info I need after this pitch. But I would know that meeting Tony is worth my time.

    I’m willing to bet investors swarmed him after this pitch, even if they still had a few questions.

    Tony frames a huge problem and gives us real evidence he’s solving it. If you can do that, raising money gets a lot easier!

    What do you think of Tony’s pitch? Leave a comment and let us know!

    If you enjoyed this post, subscribe for more like this!

    More on tech:

    GitLab’s YC Demo Day Pitch

    The Airbnb Deck

    Controlling A Computer With Your Brain

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • GitLab’s YC Demo Day Pitch

    Today, GitLab is valued at over $9 billion. But in 2015, it was a tiny startup with just a couple employees. Let’s dig into their YC Demo Day pitch.

    GitLab is a platform for software development. It lets developers collaborate, version control their code, and more.

    Who Ever Saw an Accelerator Startup Like This?

    Founder Sid Sijbrandij pitched investors that spring from a strong position. His year-old startup was already profitable and doing nearly $1 million a year in revenue.

    His customers slide is bonkers for an early stage startup. Just a year in, he has logos like Apple, Microsoft and GM. Best of all, these are paid plans.

    And no wonder! Sid explains that his product is 10x cheaper than competitors with way more features.

    I see tons of startups coming out of the top accelerators. But I’ve never once seen one like this.

    For a company still in YC to hit a nearly $1 million a year run rate is nuts. GitLab’s growth from January to March alone was 77% month over month, a staggering rate I almost never see.

    The Investor Perspective

    This shows you how easy investing can be sometimes. For anyone investing in early stage software startups in 2015, this would be an obvious bet.

    But the question is, can you get an allocation?

    For many venture funds, the answer was yes. Khosla Ventures led the $1.5 million seed round, but several other funds got a slice, including Tuesday Capital, Sound Ventures, and Liquid 2 Ventures.

    This makes me feel better about my odds of success investing. All I need to do is meet lots of founders and pick the assassins like Sid!

    What Founders Can Learn From Sid

    Sid’s pitch shows that there’s no substitute for strong business performance. He could’ve stood on that stage wearing a chicken suit, and people would’ve dumped barrels of cash on his head.

    He has a great product. He also has tons of deep pocketed customers, a profitable business and rapidly growing revenue.

    If you have all that, you don’t need much else.

    Wrap-Up

    Sid built an awesome business and pitched it well. He raised the cash he needed, got back to building, and created a major company.

    That’s the goal!

    I find it charming that Sid’s a little bit awkward, just like many founders today. And in ten years, some of the founders today will be where Sid is now.

    What do you think of the GitLab pitch? Leave a comment and let us know!

    Have a wonderful weekend, everyone!

    If you enjoyed this post, subscribe for more like this!

    More on tech:

    The Airbnb Deck

    Controlling A Computer With Your Brain

    How AI Could Make In Vitro Easier

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

  • Controlling A Computer With Your Brain

    “One of the first times y’all gave me complete control over this, I actually stayed up until, geez I don’t know, like 6 A.M. playing Civilization 6.”

    That’s Noland Arbaugh, the first human to get a brain implant from Neuralink. The implant allows him to control his computer with his mind.

    Noland demonstrated this incredible tool with Neuralink engineer Bliss Chapman yesterday, live on X.

    How Noland Became Neuralink’s First Patient

    Noland, age 29, had a diving accident about 8 years ago. The accident made him a quadriplegic.

    In January, he had surgery to implant a Neuralink brain to computer interface.

    The implant lets him direct the computer’s cursor wherever he wants. All he has to do is imagine the cursor going there, and it moves!

    Noland uses it to play chess, read, and even learn Japanese. すごいですね！

    A Repeatable Process?

    Implanting the Neuralink device requires surgery. Noland found the process to be smooth and brief:

    “The surgery was super easy. I literally was released from the hospital a day after.”

    Neuralink is not the only organization to create a brain to computer interface. A group of Stanford researchers did something similar in 2021, allowing a paralyzed man to type.

    If multiple groups can pull off a brain to computer interface, these things are really starting to work. We’re homing in on a repeatable process that can be used on more patients.

    Every year, about 12,500 people injure their spinal cords in the United States alone. I can’t even imagine what this must be like.

    Anything that can help these patients is a wonderful thing. Implants like Neuralink could make it easier for them to work, have fun and be a bigger part of society.

    The Neuralink in 2034

    What Neuralink has done today is amazing. But let’s imagine where this could be in ten years…

    Last week, we saw an incredible demo of the new Figure robot. What if we could give Noland a robotic suit that he could control with his brain implant?

    He could walk around, pick things up, and do a lot of what the rest of us take for granted.

    Some day, Neuralink implants could spread far beyond people with traumatic injuries. These implants could let the non-disabled control computers with our minds, just like Noland does.

    What’s more, the computers we’d be controlling are becoming more powerful by the day. In the future, we may dispatch autonomous AI agents using nothing but our brain.

    Let’s say you’re trying to create a new software product.

    We would no longer need to sit in a meeting with an engineer and a product manager. Instead, we would just think about what we want to build.

    Then, we’d dispatch the Engineer Agent to talk to the Product Agent, using nothing but our minds. They’d build something and present it to us.

    Wrap-Up

    I’m delighted to see Noland doing so well with his Neuralink!

    I look forward to a future where every disabled person has the same options Noland does. And in time, those of us without disabilities could also accomplish amazing things with nothing more than our brains.

    What do you think of Neuralink’s new implant? Leave a comment and let us know!

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    More on tech:

    Would You Get Microchipped?

    The Most Amazing Video I’ve Ever Seen

    How AI Could Make In Vitro Easier

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • The Airbnb Deck

    In 2008, Airbnb was near death. Founders Brian Chesky and Joe Gebbia were living off dry cereal. If they didn’t raise this $500,000, it was probably over.

    This morning, I dug into the pitch deck Brian and his team used to raise that crucial round of funding.

    Framing the Problem

    Brian does a great job of explaining what Airbnb does and why you need it.

    For travelers, it’s cheaper and more fun. For hosts, it’s an income stream.

    Many startups aren’t clear about what they do and why. But “We save people money on travel,” that I get.

    Be sure to clearly say what you do and why it matters.

    How Big Is This Market?

    The market for crashing in people’s spare rooms was pretty tiny in 2008. Airbnb basically created it.

    Some investors would look at that market and say “this is niche, no thanks.”

    But Brian shows them an adjacent market that’s huge — travel in general.

    One thing I’d change here: make that slide “dollars,” not “trips.” It’s not easy to translate between a number of trips and an actual dollar figure.

    Today, the global market for budget hotels is $276 billion. Put numbers like that in front of VC’s, and watch the drool dribble down their chins.

    But How’s the Product?

    Brian shows us the product in the deck and points out some of its great features. This is genius — every startup should do this.

    I especially liked the dual posting feature with Craigslist. This is an easy way to get a lot more eyes on those Airbnb listings.

    Brian doesn’t show every screen, just a few key features. That’s the right approach.

    A Team of Builders

    For a company this early stage, the team slide is critical. Airbnb is strong here, with two designers and a developer.

    YC’s rule is teams of 2-4, at least half technical. I think that’s as good a rule as any, and Airbnb fits the bill.

    Fanatical Users: The Trump Card

    Airbnb had a great team operating in a giant market. But what really drew me in were the customer testimonials.

    People just loved using Airbnb!

    I strongly suggest every startup include a slide like this.

    What’s Missing?

    One really important slide is missing here: traction.

    Brian didn’t include anything about revenue. That’s probably because at this time, Airbnb didn’t really have any.

    They’d been grinding away on the business since October 2007, but had only made a couple thousand dollars. They’d actually made far more selling cereal than renting rooms!

    So Brian led with what he had! He had some happy customers, a cool product, and a great team.

    You work with what you’ve got. And in Brian’s case, it was enough.

    Wrap-Up

    Airbnb’s deck is a great example for early stage startups.

    Brian frames a big problem. Then, he shows us how he’ll solve it. Finally, he gives us some early signs it’s working.

    That’s exactly what you want to do. Big problem, solution, traction.

    Give us that, and your chances of raising money will skyrocket.

    What do you think of the Airbnb deck? Leave a comment and let us know!

    If you enjoyed this post, subscribe for more like this!

    More on tech:

    The Coinbase Deck

    The Deel Pre-Seed Deck

    Meet My Latest Investment: Mobly

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Is a Revolution Brewing in Cuba?

    “In Cuba, families get one dozen eggs per month,” my friend said. “So what do they eat?” I asked. “They starve.”

    I was in New York recently talking with a friend who left Cuba in 2021. She first moved to Uruguay, then made her way to the United States two years ago.

    There are still a few lefties in America that idealize Cuba. But they don’t know anything about it — she does.

    So this morning, I was fascinated to read that a revolution may be brewing in Cuba. From Bloomberg:

    Almost unnoticed amid the drama and crisis that hit Latin America every week, in the last days of February the Cuban government asked the United Nations for aid to address a growing food shortage.

    The unprecedented cry for help from a communist regime that has always prided itself on its social welfare model captures Cuba’s dire economic straits. Hurt by tightened US restrictions, decaying domestic production, a weak post-Covid tourism industry and indifference from its allies, the island is living through its worst economic days since the collapse of the Soviet Union more than three decades ago. A string of blackouts brought people into the streets last weekend, shouting for “food and power” — a rare display of social unrest since the turmoil that shook the island in July 2021, which the regime contained with crushing force.

    “I’m Hungry”

    You can watch actual video from the protests posted on Twitter, below.

    It’s hard not to be moved by the Cuban people’s plight. Their chant, “I’m hungry,” is the most basic of human needs.

    Here in the United States, we have everything. Sadly, we probably throw away enough food to feed Cuba and several other countries.

    So I hope that our government comes through in a major way for Cuba, despite our political differences.

    Toppling the Regime is Harder Than You Think

    But as bad as the situation in Cuba is, I doubt the government will fall any time soon.

    “No one has guns,” my friend explained when I asked her if the government would fall. And despite my serious concerns on US gun policy, I have to admit — she was making sense.

    Perhaps there is some middle ground between a disarmed, powerless populace and the violence we see in America today.

    What Would It Take to Get Rid of the Regime?

    What it would take to get rid of the Communists in Cuba would be somebody with guns turning against the government. That means the military and police.

    To my knowledge, there is no indication of the military or police turning against the regime. I’m guessing they’re better fed than those poor people protesting.

    We often think that if a society becomes poor and desperate enough, a revolution happens. But that’s not really true.

    How Revolutions Really Work

    Around Christmas in 2022, I read a fascinating little book. It’s called Revolutions: A Very Short Introduction.

    In this book, Professor Jack Goldstone of George Mason University traces countless revolutions from Ancient Greece to the present. The upshot: poverty alone won’t get rid of a bad government.

    You also need the elites to turn against the regime. Those elites have the power, the money, and the weapons.

    And it’s going to take a lot of all 3 to get rid of a dictator as brutal as Cuba’s Miguel Diaz-Canel.

    Wrap-Up

    If we start to see Cuban elites openly criticize the regime, and police and military start to disobey orders from Diaz-Canel, a revolution could happen. But until then, I’m afraid the Cuban people are in for more of the same.

    What do you think of the situation in Cuba? Leave a comment and let us know!

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    Photo: “Cuba” by szeke is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.

  • How AI Could Make In Vitro Easier

    I’m 38 years old. Of all my friends, only one has a child, a little boy. So if I had to lay a bet, I’d say our generation is going to use a lot of IVF.

    A fascinating startup called Alife might make that process a lot easier.

    How AI Is Helping Families Grow

    Alife uses AI to improve the success rate of IVF. Alife tells the doctor which embryos are most likely to produce a healthy baby, calculates optimal medication dosage per patient, and a lot more. From Fortune:

    Alife’s suite of AI-enabled tools is designed to cover every step of the fertility process. Its Stim Assist tool uses a machine-learning algorithm trained on 40,000 cycles to analyze a woman’s data. It then delivers recommendations, such as the dosage of Follicle-Stimulating Hormone (FSH) a woman should take to optimize the number of healthy eggs before a retrieval cycle, and predicts the best day for retrieval. The idea is, by relying on the data and finding what worked for a similar patient, women can potentially save money on medicine and unnecessary future rounds.

    IVF is expensive, time-consuming and often fails. A cycle costs around $23,000 on average. Many women require numerous cycles in order to deliver a baby.

    All in, it could cost $50,000, $100,000 or more to start a family. How many families can afford this?

    Making IVF Cheaper and More Effective

    If we could improve the success rate of each IVF cycle, we’d drive down costs dramatically. That’s where Alife’s approach makes a lot of sense.

    Alife has a giant data set of IVF cycles. It can tag each cycle with metadata, like “resulted in pregnancy” or “mother over 35.”

    Once the Alife models have enough training data, they should be able to tell which embryos give the woman the best chance of pregnancy.

    Today, Alife has 40,000 IVF cycles to train on. What happens when it has 40 million?

    Worldwide, women are having kids older. At the same time, people are getting richer.

    That’s the target market for IVF. So I expect that the available datasets will grow enormously in the coming years.

    Eventually, Alife may be able to target the right embryo, med dosing, and retrieval day with incredible precision. That could mean women need fewer IVF cycles in order to get pregnant, which would drastically lower costs.

    Wrap-Up

    Cheaper, more effective IVF means more babies. And in a nation with a fertility rate of just 1.7 children per woman, that would be wonderful news!

    In my work investing in startups, I’ve seen a ton of AI sales tools and coding assistants. I love those — super useful!

    But I think AI will impact every part of our lives, not just our work. Massive amounts of intelligence crunching giant data sets should be able to solve just about any problem on earth.

    What do you think families will look like in the future? Leave a comment and let us know!

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