Tremendous

An angel investor's take on life and business

  • 10 Years of Legal Weed: Fewer Opioid Deaths, More Jobs and Tax Revenue

    I got an interesting message in my e-mail this morning. The NPR Planet Money newsletter reviewed the prior nearly ten years in legal marijuana in some states, and came to some interesting conclusions:

    What’s changed:

    • More marijuana use
    • Way more jobs
    • Way more tax revenue. California makes over $600 million a month.

    What hasn’t:

    • No effect on crime or traffic accidents
    • No change in price of marijuana. Evidently the product and service at the legal stores is so good people prefer it to anything else.

    What might have:

    Use of opioids. In the working paper linked from the newsletter, I found this incredible stat:

    …Chan, Burkhardt, and Flyr (2020) show that RMLs [recreational marijuana laws] reduce opioid mortality by 20% to 35%, implying that both opioid use and misuse decline as legal marijuana access expands.

    Given the mass death caused by opioids, this alone seems like reason enough to legalize marijuana in my book.

    I read this newsletter with particular interest since I live in New Jersey, which recently legalized marijuana but doesn’t yet have weed stores the way California, Colorado and other states do. It looks like we mostly have positive changes to look forward to.

    For more posts on politics and news, check these out:

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    Photo: “Vancouver Global Marijuana March 2015 – by Danny Kresnyak” by Cannabis Culture is licensed under CC BY 2.0

  • GameStop Short Squeezes Are Over

    GameStop Corp. soared in January as short sellers were squeezed by a legion of buyers from Reddit’s Wallstreetbets. The shorts had to buy in order to close out their positions and stanch the bleeding, driving the stock even higher.

    It seems they’ve learned their lesson. Short selling of GameStop shares has decreased dramatically, and the stock is no longer particularly heavily shorted:

    Short interest in GameStop shares, a figure that represents bets against the stock on Wall Street, fell below 10 million at the end of last week, or just over 18% of the outstanding float. That’s down from around 57.8 million shares, or 113.3% of the float, when short-selling against the group peaked and Reddit-fueled buyers took the stock to a record high of $483 per share.

    Many other stocks in the market are much more heavily shorted, such as Senseonics at 69% or GSX at 48%.

    Where does that leave us? With stock in a money-losing company locked into long term leases on stores that were losing a fortune even before COVID. Without the possibility of another short squeeze, there is no catalyst for this stock to move much higher.

    For more on GameStop, check out these posts:

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    Photo: “GameStop” by JeepersMedia is licensed under CC BY 2.0

  • GameStop Options Expiration Could Crater Reddit’s Favorite Stock

    Call options covering four million shares in GameStop Corp. expired on Friday, and the stock dropped right on cue:

    A call option gives you the right to buy a stock at X price. For the market maker to be able to sell you that option without risking going broke, they need to own the stock themselves. Let’s say you bought an option to buy GameStop stock at 300. What if it goes to 600? The market maker is out $300/share. To mitigate this risk, the market maker owns the underlying share so they’ll have the $300 they need if that happens.

    But when call options expire, the market makers who sell options don’t have to hold the stock anymore. Option expiration may have helped extinguish the last big GameStop rally:

    In the last rally, the weekly January 29th expiry date marked the beginning of the end for GME

    I believe this happened because market makers were released from their obligation to hold GME stock as a hedge.

    Now another huge block of options has expired. And an even larger block will expire this Friday, March 19:

    I see a catalyst that could start the collapse of this bubble as a large number of options are set to expire this Friday the 12th. Market makers will be released from their obligation to hold almost 4 million shares. If that doesn’t do it, another 6.6 million shares will be freed up the following week.

    I could definitely see this driving down GameStop shares further, especially since we haven’t seen any significant good news on this company recently. And its fundamentals are weak, with huge losses on its 5,000 physical stores that predate COVID.

    For more on GameStop, check out these posts:

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    Photo: “Retail GameStop” by ccPixs.com is licensed under CC BY 2.0

  • Who Is the Secret Dogecoin Billionaire?

    Someone owns $2.1 billion worth of dogecoin. And no one knows who it is:

    Records show that a person, or entity, owns about 28% of all of the cryptocurrency in circulation—a stake worth about $2.1 billion at current prices. The holder’s identity isn’t known, which is common in the opaque world of digital currencies.

    The account could belong to an exchange on which dogecoin is traded, or to the individuals and groups who run the software that keep the digital currency’s network going, researchers say.

    There is some speculation that the secret dogecoin billionaire could be the not-so-secret Tesla billionaire Elon Musk, but the evidence is thin:

    The address also offers an intriguing “Easter egg” for people trying to decipher the identity of the owner: the account has on multiple occasions received 28.061971 dogecoins. Mr. Musk’s birthday is on June 28, 1971.

    Despite his interest in dogecoin, the major holder’s address is unlikely to belong to Mr. Musk, said Elias Ahonen, author of “Blockland.” Anyone can send dogecoin to a publicly listed address, which could explain the amounts linked to Mr. Musk’s birthday.

    Having 28% of the currency in the hands of a single, unknown person makes dogecoin very susceptible to wild swings in price. If that holder sells suddenly, it could crash the currency. One has to balance that against a major positive for dogecoin: it uses the same technology as bitcoin but is a tiny fraction of the price.

    Any guesses on who it is? Leave them in the comments!

    For more on dogecoin and cryptocurrencies, check out these posts:

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    Photo: “Doge Meme: Japanische Hunderasse Shiba und Vorbild für den DogeCoin” by marcoverch is licensed under CC BY 2.0

  • Pattern in GameStop Bonds Spells Trouble For Reddit’s Favorite Stock

    GameStop shares have been on a wild ride in recent days, mostly upward:

    Much of this is driven by a new turnaround plan by GameStop board member and Chewy founder Ryan Cohen, who aims to turn GameStop into an online-first retailer. But if this is such a game changer for the company, why isn’t this reflected in its bonds?

    GameStop owes a lot of money to a lot of people, and they don’t seem to be any more confident about getting it back than they were months ago:

    GameStop’s two-year bond, on the other hand, tells an interesting story — one that strikes a much more cautious tone about the likelihood that Chewy Inc. founder and activist investor Ryan Cohen can revitalize the video-game retailer through a digital transformation. For all the whipsawing of the company’s stock price over the past two months, its debt has been relatively stoic, suggesting a rocket-ship-like turnaround is still anything but certain. The bonds last traded on March 5 at 103.5 cents on the dollar to yield 6.34%, or about 620 basis points above comparable Treasuries. That price is actually a bit lower than it was on Jan. 13, when the stock was still trading at about $30 a share.

    If GameStop had truly turned a corner, why wouldn’t the price of the bonds go up along with the stock? A stronger company means higher likelihood of repayment, and hence higher bond prices.

    My theory: retail traders on Robinhood are buying stock and stock options, not bonds. The bond buyers are institutional investors with a more sober outlook.

    So, if you want to know the true picture at GameStop, I suggest looking beyond the stock and options to the bonds. If those start to move, something may really be changing at GameStop.

    For more on GameStop and other meme stocks, check out these posts:

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    Photo: “Retail GameStop” by ccPixs.com is licensed under CC BY 2.0

  • How Alex Jones Lost Bitcoin Worth $563 Million

    Ten years ago, when bitcoin was worth only $5 each, cryptocurrency proponent Max Keiser gave conspiracy theorist Alex Jones a laptop. It contained 10,000 bitcoin, which would now be worth over $500 million.

    That laptop has gone missing:

    Alex Jones, the founder of the right-wing media group Infowars, has revealed that he has lost the laptop containing 10,000 bitcoins given to him by television personality and bitcoin proponent Max Keiser. During the Flagrant 2 show with Andrew Schulz and Akaash Singh on Tuesday, he said that Keiser gave him 10K BTC on a laptop 10 years ago.

    This highlights a real problem with cryptocurrencies. Unless you use an application to manage and store your crypto, you can lose the USB or laptop, forget the password, etc. Do that and the money is gone forever.

    Better starting looking, Alex!

    For more on the latest in cryptocurrencies, check out these posts:

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    Photo: “Alex Jones” by seanpanderson is licensed under CC BY 2.0

  • Texas Is Suing Itself To Stop Mask Mandates As Essential Workers Are Thrown Under the Bus

    The state of Texas lifted its mask mandate recently. As if this dangerous policy weren’t enough, it is now suing the city of Austin for choosing to keep a mandate and protect its citizens:

    The Attorney General for Texas is suing officials in Austin after they refused to enforce an order that ended a statewide mask mandate, he said on Thursday.

    If Austin can’t make a city ordinance to keep its people safe from death in the middle of a pandemic, why does the city government exist? One may as well dissolve it.

    These rules are putting essential workers, many of them poorly paid and from minority groups, in an impossible position. They’re at risk from the virus because they’re exposed to so many people, and now they have to enforce their own store’s mask mandate. But the state law gives cover to anti-maskers who violate the store rules and behave like infants when asked to mask up.

    I find this totally unacceptable. To be frank, it makes me quite angry. I’m only grateful I live far away.

    If the federal government can legally intervene, it should.

    For more posts on COVID, check these out:

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    Photo: “Greg Abbott” by Gage Skidmore is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0

  • The US Government Is Selling Its Bitcoin

    The US government is selling its bitcoin…all $38,000 worth:

    Tucked away among the Ford, Dodge and Chevy sedans, the 12,000-gallon storage container and the inoperable Caterpillar tractor being auctioned off by the U.S. government is an unusual item: 0.7501 of a Bitcoin.

    The federal government did not reveal the source of its cryptocurrency holdings, but I imagine they were probably seized in a bust of some sort. Indeed, a far larger collection was sold off when the Silk Road was shut down:

    The government doesn’t say where its surplus digital currency came from. And while it’s a far cry from the 30,000 Bitcoins auctioned off by the U.S. Marshals Service in 2014 after they were seized from the Silk Road marketplace, the GSA auction is one more indication of how Bitcoin is becoming more and more mainstream.

    This does make me wonder if eventually states and sovereign wealth funds will buy crypto and hold it. Can the day be far in the future?

    For more on the latest in cryptocurrencies, check out these posts:

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    Photo: “Vice President Joe Biden visit to Israel March 2016” by U.S. Embassy Jerusalem is licensed under CC BY 2.0

  • This New Indicator May Tell You Where Bitcoin Is Headed

    For many years, investors in stocks have been able to see how volatile the market is expected to be by relying on a gauge called the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX. This measure, often called the “fear gauge,” reads how much volatility investors are expecting based on option prices.

    Nothing like this has ever existed for cryptocurrencies. Until now:

    A bitcoin “fear gauge,” similar to the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) investors use to gauge volatility in the stock market, saw its first trades on Wednesday.

    The T3i BitVol Index measures the expected 30-day implied volatility in bitcoin derived from tradable bitcoin option prices.

    The index goes two years back so far. Current expected volatility appears higher than normal.

    A high VIX tends to correlate with a drop in stocks. A low VIX tends to predict calm, gradually rising markets. This pattern may hold with Bitcoin as well, giving crypto holders a chance to see a bit into the future.

    For more on the latest in cryptocurrencies, check out these posts:

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    Photo: “Winklevoss Twins – Caricature” by DonkeyHotey is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0

  • For the Vaccinated, Masks May Be Over

    If you’ve been vaccinated for COVID, can you finally take off the mask? Early data from Israel says yes:

    Pfizer Inc and BioNTech SE said on Wednesday that real-world data from Israel suggests that their COVID-19 vaccine is 94% effective in preventing asymptomatic infections, meaning the vaccine could significantly reduce transmission.

    If you don’t even have an asymptomatic infection, you shouldn’t be able to transmit the disease to others. That said, this data is preliminary and is not yet peer reviewed.

    The problem with real world application of this knowledge is that anyone can say they’re vaccinated. At a grocery store, for example, it would be hard to check everyone given constraints on time and manpower. So, I expect to see masks continue in public places until case rates are very low and everyone who wants a vaccine has had a chance.

    That said, this data can inform our actions in private settings. I look forward to being able to wear one less frequently!

    For more posts on COVID, check these out:

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    Photo: