“I keep thinking that AI in 2023, 2024 is like the internet in 1999.”
That’s Peter Thiel at the All-In Summit. In a frank conversation with the besties, Thiel digs into the election, our confrontation with China, and the future of AI.
The Election
Silicon Valley has shifted rightward in recent years. Thiel was well ahead of the curve, backing Trump in 2016. And as usual, he has a contrarian take.
Despite media predictions, Thiel thinks the election will not be close. He points out that most presidential elections break decisively one way or another.
Nate Silver is predicting a decisive win as well. He has Trump up by double digits in his forecast.
Time will tell who’s right.
The Showdown with China
Whoever wins the election will face China’s Xi Jinping.
China has held more and more drills near Taiwan since the spring. Thiel thinks that China will eventually try to take Taiwan.
If it does, Thiel is against the US joining the war.
Such a conflict could spiral into World War III. Thiel thinks a war over Taiwan just isn’t worth it, and I agree.
What we need most from Taiwan is advanced chips. But we can learn to make them ourselves. In fact, we’re already beginning to do so.
The Future of AI
Playing with ChatGPT in the fall of 2022 reminded me of using the first search engines in the mid 90’s. Thiel’s analogy with the early internet is spot on.
Despite all AI can do, Thiel doesn’t think it will cause widespread unemployment. After all, the Industrial Revolution didn’t put humans out of work.
Thiel is right on the money here.
Human creativity is limitless. We will create new jobs we cannot imagine today.
When I was a kid, there were no yoga instructors, spinning coaches, or Tik Tokers. Today, countless people are making their living in those fields.
Human innovation is not going to stop.
The Higher Education Bubble
If the jobs of the future will be a lot different from today, how should young people prepare?
Thiel is skeptical of college. In 2011, he started the Thiel Fellowship, a program that gives $100,000 to talented kids to skip college.
Thiel notes that student debt has spiraled out of control, reaching nearly $2 trillion. The median 2009 graduate actually had more debt 12 years later, held back by a weak job market and high interest rates.
I think college is worthwhile, especially if you’re not sure what you want to do. But avoid student debt!
Get scholarships and consider state school. Major in STEM.
When it comes to the job market, a Comp Sci major with a 3.9 from Rutgers will beat a theater major from Brown any day.
Wrap-Up
Thiel has a way of predicting the future. And although his delivery is restrained, he actually paints a very bright future for the United States.
He sees us decoupling from China and reaping massive benefits from AI. The future America will stand atop the technological heap, proud and alone.
What do you think of Thiel’s talk?
More on tech:
Travis Kalanick at the All-In Summit
Small Investors Lead to Big Investors
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