Elon Musk’s new Optimus robot can fold t-shirts. How long until it’s making them?
Musk released a video of Tesla’s new Optimus robot folding a t-shirt yesterday on X:
The short video shows the robot slowly but surely turning a t-shirt into a neat little package. Robots usually struggle with fine motor tasks like this, but Optimus was up to the challenge.
Optimus’ Next Stop: The Factory Floor?
In the shower this morning, I got to thinking — if Optimus can manipulate fabric, why can’t it make a shirt too?
Musk admits that Optimus has some limitations. It was able to fold the shirt because it was working with just one at a time, and the table was at a fixed height.
Those limitations wouldn’t be a problem in a factory setting. Today, humans sew one shirt at a time at identical tables that look quite similar to the one Optimus is using.
Optimus might not be able to work a sewing machine yet. But yesterday, it couldn’t fold a shirt.
Competing With Bangladesh
If you want to make a t-shirt, there are few places cheaper than Bangladesh.
The minimum wage for garment workers is around $90 a month. Working hours are long, around 72 hours a week. This equates to an hourly wage of around 29 cents.
At that same rate, but operating 24/7, Optimus would save manufacturers about $2500 a year in labor costs.
Factories usually want to see a 15% yearly return on new equipment. So, an Optimus robot would have to cost no more than around $17,000 to make sense as a replacement for a Bangladeshi garment worker.
That’s pretty darn cheap — assuming Optimus is no faster or more accurate than a human.
Today, Optimus is slower and less accurate than a human being. I can fold a shirt more neatly than that, and a heck of a lot faster.
But over time, Optimus may greatly exceed human capabilities.
At double the productivity of a human, Optimus might make sense. At ten times the productivity, it’s a slam dunk.
Getting on the Development Ladder
Textile production is one of the simpler forms of manufacturing. For developing countries, it’s a first step toward industrialization.
What happens when poor countries can’t even get on the development ladder? No matter how low their wages, the right robot can undercut them.
The future could be factories full of robots in America and Western Europe, near big sources of demand. That would mean even deeper poverty for countries like Bangladesh.
Wrap-Up
Today, people are laughing at Optimus. I don’t think they’ll be laughing long.
Robots are developing machine vision and fine motor skills. Every day, an android performs a task we thought they could never do.
I don’t know what the future holds for Optimus. But something tells me we’ll be seeing a lot more of them, soon.
What do you think of the Optimus demo? Leave a comment and let us know!
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More on tech:
Elon Musk (Part 1): Overcoming the Odds
Is This the End of Manual Labor?
Welcome to the First Robot Restaurant
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Photo: “Factory workers producing shirts at Sleek Garment Export, in Accra, Ghana” by World Bank Photo Collection is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0.
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