Tremendous

An angel investor's take on life and business

  • How Kamala’s Unrealized Gains Tax Will Destroy the Economy

    Kamala Harris has announced a plan to tax unrealized capital gains. This bizarre and unprecedented plan will hit the US economy like a sledgehammer.

    How It Works

    Harris plans to tax unrealized capital gains at 25%. This would only apply to tax payers with assets of over $100 million — for now.

    If you’re illiquid and can’t pay the tax today, you can defer it. But then you’ll have to pay an even higher rate.

    Expect this tax to affect a lot more people over time. When income taxes were introduced in 1913, they covered only the ultra-rich.

    Why It’s Unworkable

    Let’s say you own a building. You picked a good location, and the value goes from $100 million to $150 million.

    You now owe $12.5 million in tax, or 25% of $50 million. But you didn’t sell the building, so you don’t have the money to pay the tax!

    Looks like you’ll have to defer. But what happens if you sell the building and you can only get $95 million for it?

    No one seems to know.

    Startup founders will face the same problem. A founder could be worth $200 million on paper but have almost no liquid assets.

    Under Kamala’s regime, he’d be piling up giant tax bills on money he does not have.

    But it gets worse. How do we even know what these private assets are worth?

    Well, unless you have a financing event that prices them, the government will just pick a valuation. That valuation will determine how much tax you owe.

    Those valuations may have nothing to do with reality. After all, the government will want to maximize its revenue.

    Business Grinds to a Halt

    If there’s one thing that kills business, it’s uncertainty. And this Rube Goldberg tax plan is loaded with it.

    How much are my private assets really worth? And with all the complex rules, how much am I really supposed to pay?

    Businesses won’t know what to do. So business activity will slow down.

    Meanwhile, the tax will suck money out of the economy. That means less money to build housing or start a business.

    The tax may fall on the rich to start. But when we slide into recession and unemployment spikes, this cockamamie tax plan will affect everyone.

    Unstable Government Finances, Shrinking Capital Markets

    Let’s say that I have $200 million in stocks. In 2025, their value goes up to $300 million.

    I owe $25 million in tax, and I pay it. But in 2026, the market takes a nosedive.

    Now my stocks are only worth $150 million, less than when I started. Is the government going to give me a refund?

    Providing refunds would place enormous stress on the government during recessions. But if it doesn’t provide refunds, the government will starve the economy of capital.

    When the feds take a piece of your winnings but never share the losses, sooner or later you have nothing left.

    Hello, Dubai!

    Facing punitive taxation and a weak economy, Americans will begin to move abroad. After all, Dubai has no capital gains tax at all.

    Investors and entrepreneurs are the most mobile people in America. They’ll be the first ones off the sinking ship.

    Average Americans will stay. But they’ll face an economy starved of investment.

    Expect fewer jobs, lower pay, and little or no growth.

    Wrap Up

    Harris’ tax plan is insane. It will starve the economy of the money it needs to grow.

    Kamala Harris’ America is a very different country. It’s a place of low growth, minimal innovation, and high unemployment.

    It’s a place that anyone with options will leave.

    We already pay enough. Let’s get the government’s hand out of our pockets.

    What do you think of Harris’ tax plan?

    More on the election:

    Kamala’s Price Controls = Empty Shelves

    Kamala’s Extreme Agenda

    Sacks at the RNC

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • The Fertility Crisis

    By 2054, South Korea could lose two thirds of its population. The scenario is not a war or pandemic. It is a collapse in fertility.

    South Korea’s fertility rate stands at 0.72, the lowest in the world. At current rates, South Korea could cease to exist within 500 years. And fertility is expected to fall even further this year.

    What’s happening in South Korea is a preview of a worldwide crisis. In America, in Europe, even in developing countries like India, fertility is collapsing.

    Are we facing a future without humans? And what the heck do we do about it?

    Baby Bonuses — A Failed Experiment

    Facing a declining population, many countries have tried to encourage families to have more kids. Few have been more generous than Hungary.

    Hungary spends over 5% of its GDP on subsidies to families. Parents are eligible for loans and grants from the state. And if you’re a woman with four or more children, you never have to pay taxes again!

    Hungary’s fertility jumped for a few years. But it has now settled back down almost as low as it was before, at 1.36 births per woman.

    At this rate, rapid population decline is assured.

    In America today, both parties are falling all over themselves promising to subsidize families. But these payments won’t do much to increase our fertility rate, which currently sits at 1.67.

    Promoting Religion

    Even in a world of declining fertility, some people are still having lots of children. And they tend to have one thing in common: religious faith.

    In a fascinating new book called Hannah’s Children, sociologist Catherine Pakaluk studies families with 5 or more children. She found that nearly all of them are religious.

    Many religions encourage childbearing. And religious faith can help people believe that even with more mouths to feed, everything will turn out all right.

    Extending Fertility

    Our modern world encourages us to delay childbearing. There’s college, grad school, and career building to do.

    By the time many women are ready to start a family, they’re already well into their 30’s or even 40’s. This means they may not be able to have as many children as they’d like.

    Technologies that could extend fertility could change that.

    What if we had improved IVF methods that allowed women in their 40’s and 50’s to easily have children? And what if those procedures cost 10x less?

    Wrap-Up

    As an investor, I view my job like this: find the central problems and fix them. If I can do that, the money end of it will take care of itself.

    In most of the world, the baby bust is a key issue. The technologies to fix it aren’t obvious.

    Apps that promote prayer and religious community could prove surprisingly powerful. And anything we can do to extend fertility could help families have those extra children so many want.

    I look forward to a future with smiling babies everywhere. And if a few are sitting next to me on the plane, so be it.

    How do you think we can encourage fertility?

    Have a great weekend, everyone!

    More from the blog:

    Request for Startups

    One Trillion Scientists

    Why AI + Humans Wins

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Small Investors Lead to Big Investors

    I’m a $5,000 first check. But this week, I introduced a founder to a VC who offered him $800,000. This is why you should meet with small investors.

    Let’s say you’re raising a $2 million seed round. At first glance, talking to a guy who writes $5,000 checks seems like a waste of time. I’d need about a billion of those to fill my round, right?

    But this ignores how fundraising actually works. Networks are everything, and the small investors help you penetrate that network.

    Small Investors Get You Intros

    When I meet an awesome founder, I always ask him for the same thing:

    “Can you send me a blurb and a link to your deck? I want you to meet some people.”

    I send that blurb and deck to some VC’s I know. I tell them why I liked the company, and offer to introduce them to the founder.

    They take me up on that all the time. One meeting with me could lead to a founder meeting half a dozen VC’s.

    Let’s consider “Jim,” the fella who got an offer for $800,000 this week. I introduced Jim to the Managing Partner at a fund in Silicon Valley with around $200 million under management.

    That VC liked Jim just as much as I did. And he’s writing checks from a much bigger pot. Hence, the monster offer.

    But none of this would’ve happened if Jim hadn’t taken a meeting with me in the first place.

    A Case Study from OpenVC

    I’m not the only small investor helping founders raise big bucks. Take this fascinating case study, brought to my attention by Steph Nass of OpenVC.

    A YC company called Freshpaint showed how its fundraise came together. One angel who wrote a $5,000 check introduced the founder to 5 more investors who wrote checks.

    In turn, those 5 new investors made even more intros…

    In the end, meeting that one $5k angel resulted in raising $700,000!

    This is how fundraising works. One meeting leads to another, and eventually the checks start to roll in.

    Honing Your Pitch

    Do you want to flub your pitch with me, or with Roelof at Sequoia?

    Talking with smaller investors first is a great way to hone your pitch. You can work on your delivery and address common questions.

    Work out those kinks in an environment where there’s less at stake. By the time you pitch the big boys, you’ll sound terrific.

    Big Minimum Investments Are a Mistake

    I recently met with a company that had a $300,000 minimum investment. This is very unusual. It’s also a huge mistake.

    The company was actually pretty cool. But since I can’t invest, I’m not going to spin up a bunch of intros for them.

    They’re left trying to meet the big investors on their own. And as any founder can tell you, that’s not easy.

    Never have a minimum investment. Instead, always include angels that are helpful, regardless of check size.

    Those small investors will do more for you than most of the big funds.

    Wrap-Up

    The key thing in fundraising is to penetrate the network. The easiest way to do that is to start at the periphery of the network — the smaller investors.

    We’re used to meeting really early stage companies. And when we see something we like, we send it on to the big boys.

    The big VC’s listen to us because we’ve sent them great things before. Your odds of getting a fat check are much higher with that warm intro.

    So always take a meeting with a small investor. You never know where it could lead!

    Do you meet with small investors?

    More on tech:

    What Happens in an Acquihire?

    When Co-Founders Divorce

    Why I Don’t Invest in Vice Startups

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Why I Don’t Invest in Vice Startups

    “This startup is going to make a fortune. I’m out.” That was me reading a deal memo recently. And no, I haven’t lost my mind. Let me explain…

    I was looking at an app that lets you buy lottery tickets on your phone. Right away, I knew this was going to be huge.

    Every time I go to a convenience store, I’m stuck in line behind someone buying a dozen lottery tickets. Who wouldn’t rather buy them from home?

    But I didn’t want to be any part of it. That’s because like alcohol, tobacco and other vice startups, gambling is a category I don’t touch.

    Gambling

    Among vice startups, gambling apps is the biggest category by far.

    I see every conceivable variation. Straight up betting, “fantasy” apps that involve betting actual cash, you name it.

    And I pass on all of them.

    I think people should be free to gamble. In general, I think more human freedom is good.

    But I also think gambling is absolutely terrible for people. It becomes addictive behavior, and the addiction is especially strong when it’s inside your pocket, available any time.

    Gambling apps use gamification and other hooks common in social media platforms. But while a social app might waste your time, a gambling app can bankrupt you.

    I picture families ruined, homes lost. And I want nothing to do with it.

    Tobacco

    Ahh, tobacco. Easiest money there is! I love the Warren Buffett quote on this:

    “I’ll tell you why I like the cigarette business,” he said. “It costs a penny to make. Sell it for a dollar. It’s addictive. And there’s fantastic brand loyalty.”

    And yet, Berkshire Hathaway doesn’t invest in tobacco, and neither do I. It’s a terrible, ghoulish business.

    You’re making money off of killing people. Only the most absolutely unethical person could be involved in such a thing.

    If you meet anybody like that, don’t do business with them. If they’re that unethical, they’re probably willing to steal from you too.

    What’s more, I have a personal history with tobacco. I quit smoking in January of 2015.

    It was one of the best decisions of my life. And I certainly would not want to encourage others to smoke.

    I also don’t invest in any other form of nicotine…Zyn, vapes, etc. All nicotine is vasoconstrictive and very bad for you.

    Alcohol, Marijuana, and Other Drugs

    I think people should be free to use alcohol, marijuana, and perhaps other drugs as well. However, I also think that they can be disastrous to a person’s health and general course in life.

    So I never invest in any of these areas. I don’t want to profit from ruining people’s livers, lungs and brains. It’s a dirty business.

    Some drugs like ketamine may have some therapeutic uses. But they can also have serious dangers.

    Out of an abundance of caution, I steer clear of this entire category.

    Porn

    I actually don’t have a problem with this one. But the issue is, companies involved with porn cannot be financed.

    No institutional VC will touch it. After all, they can’t turn around and tell the Harvard Endowment, “Hey, we put your money in a porn company.”

    I can’t be the only one investing in a startup. Any successful company needs to raise many rounds of funding.

    So although I don’t have an issue with it myself, I don’t invest in companies involved with porn.

    Wrap-Up

    Gambling, tobacco, and other vice startups can make a fortune. But I’m lucky to be well off enough that I don’t need to do this kind of business.

    I didn’t get into angel investing to addict people to drugs, alcohol and gambling. I got into it to be a part of creating an awesome future.

    The minute this all becomes a meaningless cash grab, I’d rather hang it up.

    What categories do you invest in, and what do you avoid?

    More on tech:

    What Happens in an Acquihire?

    Request for Startups

    When Co-Founders Divorce

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • What Happens in an Acquihire?

    A company you invested in got acquired. Time to buy that mansion, right? Not so fast.

    Most acquisitions in startupland are nothing like Salesforce’s $28 billion purchase of Slack. The more common scenario is what’s called an “acquihire.”

    I’ve had this happen a few times in my portfolio. Let me explain how it works…

    What Is an Acquihire?

    An acquihire is an acquisition of a startup for a modest sum. The acquirer usually just wants to hire the startup’s employees, rather than keep the startup’s business going. Hence the “hire”.

    Let’s say ABC Corp. buys a startup. The startup’s founders and employees get job offers at ABC Corp. Meanwhile, ABC Corp. probably shuts down the startup’s product.

    How Much Do Investors Make?

    Usually, investors just get their money back. That’s been the case with the acquihires I’ve been involved with.

    If the acquirer is a public company, you’ll usually get cash or liquid stock. If it’s a private company (usually a late stage startup), you’ll get stock in that company. Once the acquirer goes public, you’ll have liquidity.

    Believe it or not, this is an incredible outcome!

    Investing at pre-seed and seed, I expect 70-80% of my bets to go to 0. Getting my money back is a well above average outcome.

    What Happens to the Founders and Team?

    The founders and team usually get little if any cash for their stock. However, the acquirer does offer them jobs.

    There are usually offers for the founders and most, if not all, of the employees. The job offers tend to be plum positions. The seniority and pay is often higher than most other people would get with the same experience.

    The catch is that the equity portion of that pay usually vests over a couple of years. So, the founders and employees need to stay at the acquirer for 2-4 years to get maximum value.

    This works out nicely for stressed out entrepreneurs. They rest and vest for a couple of years at Megacorp, then go start another company.

    There can be some other great benefits for the team. One startup I invested in got acquihired and the Latin American team got EU visas in the bargain — a wonderful outcome for them!

    Wrap-Up

    When a founder starts a company or an investor writes a check, no one is hoping for an acquihire. We want to go all the way to IPO.

    But an acquihire is a good outcome for a startup that’s struggling. The founders and team get a good home, and in a couple of years they can try again.

    And when they do, I’ll be waiting, checkbook in hand.

    What have you seen in acquihires?

    More on tech:

    Request for Startups

    Paying the Cost to be the Boss

    When Co-Founders Divorce

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Kamala’s Price Controls = Empty Shelves

    Kamala Harris announced plans to stop “price gouging” on groceries at a speech on Friday. This plan could lead to price controls for groceries for the first time since the 1970’s.

    Every time I go to the store, I’m shocked at the total. Harris isn’t wrong that there’s a problem.

    But her solution will destroy this country. Price controls will result in empty shelves and hunger.

    How It’s Working in Venezuela
    “Come on Francis, you’re exaggerating, right?” Well, let’s take a little trip southward to Venezuela and see how their price controls are working.

    Prices at government-run stores in Venezuela are really low. But the problem is, there’s nothing to buy.

    Venezuelans stand in line for hours. When they’re finally let inside, the shelves are bare.

    If they’re lucky, they get to take a couple cans of sardines and a few diapers. One mother NPR met in Caracas had to put back one of her cans of sardines — you’re only allowed two.

    I cannot imagine the heartbreak she felt at putting back that little can of food.

    With no food in the stores, most Venezuelans go hungry. For millions, the solution has been emigration.

    Where will Americans go?

    No Bread Today, Comrade

    Maybe it’s just Venezuela. Has anyone else tried this?

    In fact, one of the world’s largest countries had price controls on just about everything. And it kept them for generations.

    The Soviet Union controlled prices throughout its history. Soviet workers would get paid and try to go shopping — only to find the stores had nothing to buy.

    The picture was a lot like Venezuela today: long lines and empty shelves.

    Price Controls Here at Home

    But hey, this is America! We can get price controls right…right?
    Well as a matter of fact, America has tried price controls before. President Nixon imposed them in 1971.

    The result was predictable: lines and shortages. People struggled to buy gas, heating oil, and many other necessities.

    Nixon wound up abandoning price controls after a couple of years. It turns out, being able to buy at a high price is better than being unable to buy at all.

    The Real Source of Inflation

    Back to Kamala Harris. She’s blaming grocery stores for inflation. But the real blame lies in Washington.

    The government has increased the money supply by 40% since the beginning of 2020. That’s more money chasing every loaf of bread, every stick of butter.

    The result: higher prices.

    Meanwhile, grocery margins remain razor thin: usually around 1-3%

    Wrap-Up

    Harris seems to think that corporations somehow got greedy around 2020. Newsflash: people have been greedy since the dawn of time.

    Corporate greed isn’t the cause of high prices. The real cause is government incompetence.

    We can’t afford any more “help” from Washington.

    What do you think of Harris’ price control plan?

    More on politics:

    Kamala’s Extreme Agenda

    Sacks at the RNC

    114 Days

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Request for Startups

    We investors usually sit back and wait to see what founders will create. But today, I’m going to tell you the exact startups I want you to make.

    Your mission, should you choose to accept it: take one of these ideas. Make it a startup. Then come talk to me.

    Here’s what I want to see…

    1) Missile defense. Nuclear war could destroy human civilization in minutes. Preventing it is the most important thing we can do.

    This summer, I read Nuclear War: A Scenario. It’s an excellent and very scary book. And it really drove home to me how important it is to prevent such a war.

    So, I’m very interested in startups that could protect us from missiles. That could involve missiles that intercept those of our enemies, systems that produce chaff that take missiles down, or other technologies to neutralize opposing nukes.

    2) Ways to extend fertility. Declining fertility is a key threat to the world. Today, the United States is well below replacement rates.

    I’ve spent a lot of time in Japan. So I’ve seen what happens when a country’s population declines: the nation slowly fades away.

    Every year, the economy gets a little worse and everyone gets a little poorer. There are fewer people to do the nation’s work, and more elderly to support.

    We cannot let that happen here.

    Most of the decline in fertility is among women in their 20’s. If we could balance that with increased fertility in their 30’s and 40’s, and perhaps even 50’s and 60’s, we might get back to population growth.

    So I’m very interested in technologies that help older women have children more easily. That could be new drugs, supplements, better IVF techniques, or something else.

    Scientists, get to work!

    3) Making permitting easier. If we’re going to produce lots of beautiful new families, they’re going to need somewhere to live! Unfortunately, we face a housing crisis today.

    So I’m very interested in tools that could make it easier to build housing. Perhaps AI systems could get developers through permitting more easily. Or AI lawyers could spin up lawsuits against NIMBYs.

    4) Plastic houses. Sounds kooky, I know. But what lasts longer than plastic?

    Our plastic bags are going to outlive us all. Plastic is cheap and readily available.

    So why aren’t we building plastic houses?

    I spoke with a homebuilder on Twitter recently, and he said that he thinks a plastic house could work. But as far as I know, no one has ever tried it.

    If we can build more durable houses for less money, housing costs will decline. This plus improved permitting could end the housing crisis.

    Wrap-Up

    Every one of these technologies is a long shot. But that’s the business we’re in — and it’s a wonderful business.

    We’re here to make the future, not to create slightly better business software until we croak.

    Let’s address ourselves to the world’s central problems. I think the risk of nuclear war, declining fertility, and the housing crisis are some of the biggest problems we face.

    And I’m very excited to meet any startups working to make these problems history.

    What kind of startups are you excited about?

    Have a great weekend, everybody!

    More on tech:

    Nuclear War: A Scenario

    One Trillion Scientists

    The New Figure 02 — the World’s Best Robot?

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • One Trillion Scientists

    What if we had one trillion scientists working 24/7? Sakana AI’s new AI Scientist just might make that happen.

    The Tokyo research lab released a new AI system that can automate the research process. The AI Scientist can do a literature review, plan and conduct experiments, and write up the results.

    Even better, an AI Reviewer reviews the paper and helps decide if it should be published! All the code to spin up your own AI Scientist is available free today on Github.

    The AI Scientist

    For starters, you give the AI Scientist a broad direction for research. Then, the system looks for important papers in the field.

    It can run experiments, plot the data, and even write it up in LaTeX format.

    The system isn’t perfect yet. The AI Scientist hallucinates from time to time and doesn’t always cite all its sources.

    Still, for a first effort, it’s incredibly impressive!

    Driving Costs to Zero

    Right now, it costs $15 in compute for the AI Scientist to produce a paper. But the cost of AI compute is falling rapidly.

    Compute cost fell 90% in just 2 years from 2020-22. This decline is continuing rapidly and may greatly outpace Moore’s Law.

    Eventually, the cost will be down to pennies per paper. This will allow us to produce papers on a scale we’ve never seen before.

    Today, we may have a few million researchers doing a couple papers a year. In the future, we could be producing billions or trillions of papers, then using AI Reviewers to find the best ones.

    Tackling the Hardest Problems

    It’s 2050 and we have the equivalent of one trillion scientists working around the clock. The AI Scientist is hooked into androids from Figure and Tesla, performing experiments in the real world.

    What problem could possibly withstand that kind of scrutiny?

    Major problems like cancer, heart disease, and energy generation would fall, one by one. AI systems could produce new drugs and new sources of energy so rapidly we can barely keep up.

    And let me tell you where a lot of that new energy will go: right back into compute to run more AI Scientists.

    Wrap-Up

    Today, the AI Scientist is an interesting first effort. But decades from now, we could be sitting here with most of the major problems of humanity solved.

    We could live to 1,000 and use infinite free energy all our lives. Any question we have, we could answer. Any problem we face, we could surmount.

    What an incredible time to be alive.

    What do you think of the AI Scientist?

    More on tech:

    The New Figure 02 — the World’s Best Robot?

    Why AI + Humans Wins

    An AI Copilot for the Economy

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 


  • Paying the Cost to be the Boss

    Here are the financial situations of a few founders I know:

    1) Salary paused indefinitely.
    2) Searching for side jobs to pay the bills while continuing to run the company.
    3) Relying on a spouse with a normal job because the startup isn’t making money.

    We’re talking enormous stress here. But money isn’t the only problem a lot of founders have.

    They also pay a toll in terms of their personal relationships. Here are some of the tougher situations I’ve seen:

    1) Rarely seeing young children.
    2) Losing a future wife.
    3) Drinking escalating.
    4) Health deteriorating.

    Everybody wants to be a founder when it’s all parties and hoodies and TED talks. But that’s not the reality of being an entrepreneur.

    The reality is a stressed out guy or gal sitting at a computer, isolated from friends and family, and slowly going broke.

    And here’s the worst part: for most of them, all this sacrifice won’t lead to success. The company will fail anyway.

    “Gee Francis, that’s some black attitude for a guy that just came back from vacation!”

    I know. But I see so much rah-rah on Twitter that I think it’s time to tell the truth.

    That said, many founders would not want to do anything else. And if you don’t feel the same way, that you absolutely must build this thing, don’t.

    It all comes down to a scene in one of my favorite movies, Heat:

    “So you never wanted a regular type life.”
    “What the f— is that, barbecues and ballgames?”

    What are some sacrifices you’ve made along the way?

    More on tech:

    When Co-Founders Divorce

    How to Get Warm Intros the Easy Way

    Remote vs. In Person: What’s Better for Startups?

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

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    More on Fundrise in this post.

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  • The new figure 02 — the world’s best robot?

    A dark form looks side to side. It raises one hand, opening and closing its fingers with surprising dexterity. This is the Figure 02.

    Figure announced the new robot on Twitter just this morning. The Figure 02 really looks like something from science fiction. Its sleek, black form looks almost menacing — but this robot is designed to help humans, not fight them.

    Better, Faster, Stronger

    The Figure 02 can perform AI inference on-device. It does not need to contact the cloud to run its AI applications.

    This will let Figure react to situations much more quickly. Imagine if we had to ask a remote server before we do anything — life would be impossible!

    The battery is also more than 50% larger, at 2.25 KWh. That’s about 100 times the capacity of my phone’s battery, and should be good for over 20 hours work.

    What amazed me most about this new robot was the hands. They move in a very lifelike manner. Figure has redesigned them for the Figure 02, allowing greater mobility and dexterity.

    Not Just Demoware

    Figure robots are not just demoware. They’re at work today at BMW’s Spartanburg, SC plant.

    The robots are helping assemble the chassis of BMW’s, a step that requires a lot of dexterity. Even if the Figure could only carry parts and act as a laborer, I’d be impressed. But these androids have already gone well beyond that.

    I expect the Figure 02 to take on even more delicate tasks. And I bet it won’t be long until we see them far beyond Spartanburg.

    What Does a Robotic Future Look Like?

    Imagine the world in 2034. I can lease a Figure for $250/month, the same price as a new Honda Civic today.

    The Figure can make all my meals, clean the house and do my laundry. And with the remaining 12 hours on its battery, it can pick up a shift at a factory.

    I get the paycheck (sorry Figure), which covers the cost of the lease plus a tidy profit. Winning!

    Robot workers could also help solve the labor shortage. Since mass immigration is controversial, perhaps androids are a more palatable solution.

    Wrap-Up

    The Figure 02 is incredible. But what we need to be thinking about is what the Figure 12 will look like.

    I expect it to be faster, smarter, stronger and cheaper. Soon, no physical task will be beyond its limits.

    What do you think of the new Figure?

    This is the last blog until Wednesday, August 14th. I’m headed down to Kentucky to visit my grandma! Talk soon!

    More on tech:

    The Most Amazing Video I’ve Ever Seen

    Remote vs. In Person: What’s Better for Startups?

    Llama 3.1 vs. ChatGPT: Battle Royale

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order.