Tremendous

An angel investor's take on life and business

  • I’m About to Close the World’s Tiniest Venture Fund

    In April 2021, I started the world’s tiniest venture fund. In the next few months, I’m about to close “Fund 1” and open “Fund 2.”

    My goal for my startup investments is to learn and to make returns that beat the stock market. The best way to learn is with small bets.

    If you’re learning poker, you want to play at the penny table first. Same idea here.

    These bets are small, but I want to run this professionally. So I think of my investments as the world’s tiniest venture fund.

    Here’s how it works…

    How Fund 1 Works

    I need 35-40 primary investments in a seed/pre-seed fund like mine. That gives me enough diversification so that, if I’ve chosen well, I have a chance of hitting a unicorn.

    Most of the returns in venture come from unicorns. I will almost surely need to hit one for this experiment to work.

    If I invest about $140k, I can get into around 35 primary investments. Then, I want about the same amount for follow-on.

    In total, Fund 1 is $280,000.

    What Happens When I Close Fund 1

    So far, I have 33 primary investments. I plan to invest in 3 more companies for a total of 36. Then, I will close Fund 1 to new primary investments.

    From that point on, two things will happen:

    1. Fund 1 will only do follow-on investments in the most successful companies. I’ve already done a few of those and plan to do several more. This follow-on period will extend indefinitely, until I’ve deployed all the follow-on cash. That should take a further 2-3 years (a total of 6-7).
    2. New primary investments will come out of Fund 2. Fund 2 will work pretty similarly to Fund 1.

    I expect to close Fund 1 in the first half of this year. But it could be sooner or later. It depends on how many great startups I see.

    I will have taken around 4 years to do all the primary investments in Fund 1. That’s on the slow side. The average fund takes 2-3 years, and 5 is usually the limit.

    I’m in no rush. I want the best.

    How Fund 1 Is Doing

    Venture capital is a game of outliers. And already, several companies in Fund 1 have distinguished themselves.

    Here is the leaderboard so far, by annual revenue run rate:

    • $17 million
    • $12 million
    • $8 million
    • $7 million

    Overall, the fund is up 2.3%. This number is not very meaningful right now, since it’s all on paper. You couldn’t realize any of these gains if you tried.

    However, it shows some good progress. Most funds nearly 4 years in are in negative territory. Indeed, I expect this fund to go negative as well in the next few years before the big winners (hopefully) start to break out.

    It has helped that so far, only 2 companies have shut down. That’s pretty amazing given the early stage I’m investing at.

    But the most important thing to focus on is that revenue leaderboard. That shows which companies are beginning to break out. And that’s where the returns will be.

    Where Did This Money Come From?

    These funds are all my own cash. I do not accept any outside investors for Fund 1, nor will I for Fund 2.

    In the future, that may change. But first, I want to learn this game with my own capital, not someone else’s. I would not feel good about running a crazy experiment with someone else’s money.

    Wrap-Up

    I started investing in startups during COVID. I did it mostly because I was bored and curious about angel investing.

    It wasn’t really about making money. That said, these investments have to make money. Otherwise, I won’t be able to keep doing it.

    I committed to myself to do this for 10 years. Then, I’d see if I was any good at it.

    Now I’m almost 4 years in, and things are going well so far.

    There are no guarantees in life. But win or lose, it’s been a heck of a ride. I’ve learned a lot and met a ton of fascinating people.

    Here’s to meeting more!

    More on tech:

    How to Get Started Angel Investing

    Lessons From My 3 Most Challenged Investments

    Learning From My Top 3 Investments

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • My Investment Process

    If you send me your company, what should you expect from me? Here’s how my investment process works…

    Qualification

    I focus on meeting companies with these characteristics:

    • Software business
    • Couple of paying customers
    • Team of multiple builder founders
    • Proper incorporation. (A Delaware C Corp is the right move — more on why here.)

    I qualify startups like this because I don’t want to waste anyone’s time. If the business is something I know nothing about (biotech, for example) or is incorporated in a way that is a dealbreaker for me, it doesn’t make sense to meet.

    When I see something interesting that meets those qualifications, I schedule a meeting, usually within a few days.

    Meeting

    When I meet with a founder, I like to do a Q&A. I’ve already reviewed the deck and any other materials before the meeting.

    My meetings are typically around 20 minutes, although we can go longer if need be. I want to get a basic idea of the vision for the company, the team, and the product.

    I never ask founders to meet multiple times. I’m a small check, and I don’t want to take up too much of their time.

    However, some founders ask me to meet with them more than once. They want to go over product updates, etc. I’ll often take that meeting.

    Decision Time

    My sweet spot is usually around $200-500k ARR, growing fast. I also like to see you closing enough funding to give you a minimum of 12 months runway.

    If you’re in that sweet spot, I can usually get you a decision within 24 hours after the meeting.

    If you’re not in that sweet spot yet, I will probably give you a “not yet.” It’s crucial to note that this is NOT a no.

    I met a great founder in mid-2023 whose company was just getting started. He really impressed me, but the startup was just too early stage for me.

    I kept in touch and at the end of 2024, I invested. He had grown the company a great deal, and it was time to place a bet.

    Check Size

    My first check is $5,000. I reserve $25,000 plus to go into the best companies, typically at Series A.

    That’s not a lot of money. But I am committed to giving you value beyond the cash.

    A while back, I met with a great SaaS founder. I introduced him to a VC firm that gave him an $800,000 term sheet.

    I’m not even an investor in that startup. I go even further for companies I have actually placed a bet on.

    Wrap-Up

    I want my process to be clear and transparent to every founder. Founders’ time is an incredibly scarce resource.

    If we’re a match, awesome! If not, we can keep in touch and we might be a great match later.

    Either way, you’ll know where you stand.

    More on tech:

    What To Do When a Company Fails

    Why It’s Easier to Raise $3 Million Than $300,000

    What Investors Ask Founders

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • One Billion Americans

    “China’s past thirty years of economic growth has been impressive, but they’ve also left the People’s Republic with roughly the per person income of Mexico. Nobody worries about Mexico dominating twenty-first-century power politics or asks how we’re going to stop them from winning the future.

    The difference is there are 130 million Mexicans, 330 million Americans, and 1,300 million Chinese people.”

    That’s One Billion Americans by Matthew Yglesias. I’ve been meaning to read this book for years. Last week, I finally picked up a copy.

    Matt makes a brilliant argument about why America is under threat and how we can stay on top. But when he tells us how to fix it, he falls short.

    Staying On Top

    America is not perfect. But a world dominated by America is a much better planet than one dominated by China.

    China has imprisoned over 1 million Uyghur Muslims who have committed no crime. The Communist Party surveils its people and punishes any dissent mercilessly.

    For America to remain the most powerful country, we need the largest economy. As China’s economy grows, we’re in danger of slipping to #2.

    But if we grew our population rapidly, we’d leave China in the dust.

    This is the crux of Matt’s argument. It’s very original and very insightful. I agree 100%.

    Boosting Fertility

    America’s fertility rate today is 1.67. At this rate, we are not replacing ourselves.

    Without immigration, population decline is assured.

    Matt prescribes a ton of new welfare policies in order to get that rate up. Free childcare, housing subsidies, you name it.

    The problem is, subsidies for families as a way to boost fertility have failed everywhere they’ve been tried.

    Hungary went so far as to spend 5% of GDP on these payments. Fertility jumped briefly, then settled right back down to where it was (a dismal 1.36).

    As I write this, our country is $36 trillion in debt. Shoveling trillions more at programs that don’t work will bankrupt us.

    Instead, the government should fund research on extending fertility. If women could have babies reliably throughout their 40’s, families would be highly likely to grow.

    We could fund a ton of this research for just a few billion dollars.

    New Americans

    In addition to boosting fertility, Matt urges us to go all-in on immigration. He’s absolutely right: if America can grab the most talented people from all over the world, there will be no stopping us.

    My favorite proposal of Matt’s is to allow open immigration from all our NATO allies.

    These folks are well-educated, English speaking, and friendly to America. This should be a no brainer, although I’d require they be college educated to make sure they can succeed in our job market.

    Immigration should be a growth strategy. Bring in highly skilled people, let them build new things, and everyone benefits.

    We should let in anyone from anywhere on earth with a STEM degree from a decent college and a clean police record. These people will create new companies and new technologies that will keep America on top.

    Wrap-Up

    Although this book came out in September 2020, parts of it feel very dated. This is no reflection on Matt’s writing. It’s because the world is changing really fast.

    Matt’s proposed investments in transit seem much less relevant in a world of Zoom and robotaxis. And his calls for higher government spending are hard to square with today’s high inflation.

    I also would’ve liked to see a concrete plan for getting to one billion people. How many immigrants do we need per year for how long?

    But overall, One Billion Americans is very much worth reading. Matt is one of the few people to point out a serious danger to our country and propose a radical fix.

    I hope to see America grow and prosper, filled with the best people on earth.

    More from the blog:

    The Fertility Crisis

    One Trillion Scientists

    Why AI + Humans Wins

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Make Investor Conversations a Dialogue, Not a Monologue

    In my best meetings with founders, we have a back-and-forth discussion. In the worst, only the founder talks. Here’s how to avoid those bad meetings…

    Take a Breath!

    Some founders talk very fast and never pause. Instead, pause after an important point. Let it sink in, and leave a space for a question.

    Founders often talk fast out of nervousness. And that’s okay!

    A great way to handle that is to be well prepared. The more you’ve rehearsed your presentation, the more calm you’ll be.

    Try a 5 minute meditation right before a meeting. Everyone has 5 minutes, and it can really help.

    The 1/3rd, 2/3rds Rule

    You can ensure a dialogue by following the 1/3rd, 2/3rds rule.

    The first 1/3 of the meeting is for your presentation. Take the investor through the deck and a quick demo.

    The remaining 2/3rds should be for Q&A. Some investors, like me, tend to skip straight to the Q&A, which is fine too!

    It’s very simple: when you leave time for a dialogue, you wind up having a dialogue!

    Track Your Talk Time

    You could take a guess at how much you’re talking. But in today’s world, you don’t have to.

    I use an incredible tool called Fathom that records and summarizes all my meetings. It also tells me what percent of the time I spoke and whether I went on any monologues.

    In my best meetings, I’m speaking around 40% of the time and the founder takes up the remaining 60%.

    In the worst, least productive meetings, I have a very hard time getting my questions in. By the end, I’ve only spoken maybe 10-15% of the time.

    I highly recommend you use this tool. It also has a free tier. I’m not an investor in this one — I just love it!

    Wrap-Up

    To get a check from an investor, you have to defeat a dozen objections. But if you don’t hear from the investor, you won’t know what those objections are!

    You need to pull the objections out of them. Then, you need to neutralize them.

    The only way to do that is to have a true dialogue, not a monologue. Practice this, and you’ll find yourself raising a lot more money!

    More on tech:

    Why It’s Easier to Raise $3 Million Than $300,000

    How to Run a Pitch Meeting

    What To Do When a Company Fails

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • How to Run a Pitch Meeting

    You’re about to get on a Zoom with an investor. On this call, there’s one thing you must not do: just show up and talk. Many founders “show up and throw up.” They come onto the call and give a long, unfocused monologue.

    They quickly lose their audience. And they don’t get a check.

    You’re making a presentation, and that presentation needs structure. Here’s how to do it right…

    Know What’s Important

    Long before the call, you have to know the most important things to cover. They’re not hard to remember — I call them the Big 3.

    The Big 3 are Vision, Team and Traction.

    What’s the vision for your startup? Who’s on the team, and why are they the perfect people to take on this problem? What traction do you have to show you’re addressing the problem successfully?

    There are 100 other things you could talk about that don’t matter. Advisors, complex market size models, etc.

    Don’t bother. We need to be tight and focused.

    Rehearse Your Presentation

    Practice your presentation over and over. Keep doing it until it’s smooth, natural and easy.

    Figure out how long the presentation takes. That’s important, because you want to leave lots of time for questions.

    Your co-founder is a great person to rehearse with. Have them play the role of the investor.

    Deck and Demo

    Using a deck will help you stay on track. Don’t read the slides to the investor. Just use them as a guide.

    Include a brief product demo. Focus on showing the value the product gives the customer.

    Dan Siroker, founder of Limitless (formerly Rewind), did a beautiful job of using a deck and demo together to raise money. He pulled in $12 million at a $350 million valuation with his pitch, which I reviewed here.

    Leave Lots of Time for Questions

    Your presentation should take up the first third of the meeting. Leave the rest for questions.

    When you’re done presenting, don’t ask, “Any questions?” It’s too easy for the investor to say “no.”.

    Instead, ask, “What questions do you have?”

    Make sure your responses are precise. If they ask for a number, give them a number, not a story.

    Avoid long, meandering responses. It should take you about as long to answer a question as it took the investor to ask it.

    Some investors, like me, prefer to skip the presentation altogether and just do Q&A. That’s fine too!

    Just like you rehearsed your presentation, you should rehearse for Q&A. Have your co-founder play the role of the investor. The harder the questions, the better!

    Wrap-Up

    Fundraising is sales. And in most early stage startups, the CEO is the chief fundraiser and chief salesman.

    The investor meeting is a great opportunity for me to evaluate the founders’ sales skills.

    If he gives a long, meandering presentation, I’m picturing sales meetings going badly. But if his presentation is crisp and focused, I’m gaining confidence by the minute.

    Fundraising is a skill and you can learn it. It just takes focused practice.

    Know what you need to cover. Rehearse over and over. This is the way to raise millions.

    Have a great weekend, everyone!

    More on tech:

    Why It’s Easier to Raise $3 Million Than $300,000

    The Big 3: Vision, Team and Traction

    The Perfect Pitch

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • The Problem with Pro Rata

    “I want to support the founder.” Whenever I hear myself say that, I throw my checkbook in the river.

    Follow-on investments can massively increase your returns. But done wrong, they can sink you.

    When Pro Rata Works

    Let’s back up and explain what I mean by follow-on and pro rata.

    A follow on investment is an additional investment in a company I already placed a bet on. Pro rata is one form of follow-on — the right, but not the obligation, to maintain my ownership percentage in future funding rounds. Basically, it’s a right to invest a certain additional amount in each new round.

    Wisely investing follow-on capital can really juice your returns. A study from Primary VC showed that if good funds (3.5x average multiple on invested capital) had done more follow-on, they would’ve returned 8x or more.

    Throwing Good Money After Bad

    The problem with pro rata is when it becomes about saving a company. Then, we throw good money after bad.

    So often, investors put more cash into a company because they “want to support the founder.” That choice of words already implies the company isn’t performing.

    If it were performing, we’d say, “I want to jump on a rocket ship!” We wouldn’t be talking about “support.”

    That’s our job as investors: jump on rocket ships. Anything else is a waste of time.

    That might sound kind of harsh. But it’s really difficult to make money investing in startups.

    The vast majority will go out of business. To even return a 1x of what we invested, we have to disperse our funds very carefully.

    How I Handle Follow-On Investments

    I recently had 2 companies go out of business. I did not invest any follow-on capital in either of them, even though I had the opportunity to do so.

    This keeps my losses on those two startups very small. What I don’t want to do is concentrate capital in a company that isn’t performing, then lose it all.

    When a founder you invested in asks for more money, it’s hard to say no.

    You like them, you like what they’re doing, and you want to support them. What’s more, founders are some of the most persuasive people in the world.

    But I have to say no. I need to save that money for the successful companies to help them expand.

    I still support the founder in other ways. I’m always happy to help with intros and advice. But I can’t put more cash into companies that aren’t performing.

    Wrap-Up

    My job as an investor, small though I may be, is to starve poorly performing companies of money. Then, I give that money to the high performers.

    Is that a difficult process? Absolutely.

    But it’s necessary. That’s how we get innovation.

    Venture capital is not a charity.

    If we lose all our money, we won’t be able to keep making investments. Then, there will be no venture capital for anybody.

    More on tech:

    What To Do When a Company Fails

    Lessons From My 3 Most Challenged Investments

    Learning From My Top 3 Investments

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • What To Do When a Company Fails

    One of my investments got acquired at a small loss. A co-investor flamed the founder over it. Never do this.

    If you invest in startups, most of them will fail. Some investors run wild, writing angry e-mails or even filing lawsuits.

    This is gross and counterproductive. Here’s how to handle it instead…

    What Not to Do

    When a company fails or has a less-than-awesome outcome, never flame the founder with angry messages. It’s mean and it makes you look like an ass.

    Let’s take the example above. The co-investor wrote a furious e-mail to the founder after the acquisition, accusing him of giving up too easily.

    What that investor didn’t know is that the founder had worked day and night and even lost a very important romantic relationship while trying to make the company work.

    I knew those things because I talked to the founder.

    You should also never badmouth a founder because they failed. It’s unfair, petty, and accomplishes nothing.

    And for goodness’ sake, don’t sue. Unless there is some sort of actual fraud going on (very rare), you don’t have a leg to stand on. You lost your money fair and square.

    What To Do

    So we know not to yell at a founder or disparage them. Here’s what we can do instead…

    First off, thank the founder for how hard he worked. Never forget, he’s losing a lot more than you are.

    He’s losing his dream and his livelihood. You’re losing a small amount of money.

    Just recently, I had a founder call me and tell me his company was shutting down. I made sure to thank him for his hard work. After all, he probably sacrificed in ways I’ll never know.

    If the founder is in your area, take them out to coffee or lunch and let them vent! Sometimes, all a person needs is someone to listen.

    Those moments with a founder who just got kicked in the face, they’re very special. There’s something about being around a guy who tried everything and failed, but fought the good fight.

    There’s one more thing you should do when a founder fails: keep in touch with them. You might want to invest in their next company!

    Some of the best investments of all time have been repeat founders.

    Wrap-Up

    I expect 80% of my seed and pre-seed deals to go to 0.

    All I want to see from a founder is that he tries his best and keeps me updated. Beyond that, whatever happens, happens.

    Reputation is everything in investing. If your reputation is good, good deals come to you. If it’s not, they don’t.

    Give yourself a good reputation by being classy when a company fails. It’s what’s best for your business, and it’s also the right thing to do as a human being.

    More on tech:

    Lessons From My 3 Most Challenged Investments

    Why It’s Easier to Raise $3 Million Than $300,000

    Small Investors Lead to Big Investors

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Why the Chinese Startup Ecosystem Is Dead

    If your startup fails in China, investors can seize all your assets. Why would any ambitious young person start a company in China today?

    Chinese venture capitalists are going after the founders of struggling startups, trying to get their money back. They’ve taken apartments and bank accounts, according to an incredible report in the Financial Times.

    This is the final blow that will kill the Chinese startup ecosystem.

    Not a Big Success? You’re Screwed.

    If your startup fails or simply doesn’t become a high performer, Chinese VC’s will go after you. They use what’s called “redemption rights.”

    This lets them pursue you for the entire investment amount, plus interest.

    There’s no asset these VC’s won’t try to take. Worse yet, if you can’t pay, you can be added to the national debtor blacklist.

    This is where China’s creepy social credit system comes in.

    If you’re on the blacklist, you cannot start another company. You can’t even take a high speed train or airplane.

    And you can’t leave China.

    Big Success? You’re Still Screwed.

    Let’s say a miracle happens and your startup makes it big. And it would be hard to make it bigger than Jack Ma, founder of Alibaba.

    Everything was going great for Jack, until he criticized the Chinese government. Then he disappeared for several years to “paint”.

    Even if you don’t criticize the government, you’re not safe. China effectively banned ed tech companies in an effort to enforce some bizarre notion of equality.

    Ed tech was a huge category of startups there. Imagine being told one day that your business is suddenly illegal.

    The Silicon Valley Way

    In America, we do things differently. When a company fails, the founder is free to walk away and start again.

    Legally, they’re in the clear. And culturally, we do not look down on failure.

    Being able to start again is critically important.

    If people know that it’s not the end of the world when a startup fails, they’ll be more likely to start one. Reduce the cost of something, and you get more of it.

    Never forget, many successful founders (like Travis at Uber) took several tries to hit it big.

    When investors are true risk capital and entrepreneurs are free to try and fail and try again, you get big outcomes. Otherwise, you don’t.

    Wrap-Up

    Chinese entrepreneurs are in an impossible position.

    If their startup doesn’t become a unicorn, they face asset seizures and a lifetime in debt. If they do hit the big time, the government will imprison them or regulate them out of business.

    If I’m an ambitious young person in China today, all I’m thinking about is how to get out.

    Get to Singapore, get to the UAE or the US. Then start a company.

    China has some incredible tech companies: Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance. But these may be the last.

    The next great company founded by a Chinese person will not be in China.

    More on tech:

    The End of Human Food Delivery

    Learning From My Top 3 Investments

    Lessons From My 3 Most Challenged Investments

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • The End of Human Food Delivery

    Whenever I walk down Washington Street in Hoboken, NJ, I see them: the food delivery guys. There are dozens of them, zipping around on bikes or waiting for orders. What happens when there’s no more work for any of them?

    In Los Angeles, dozens of robots from Serve Robotics are delivering food today. They operate autonomously, trundling along sidewalks at about 5 miles per hour.

    As of last fall, there were only about 4 dozen of the bots in operation. But Serve plans to unleash thousands of them in the near future.

    In many urban areas like mine, food delivery is done by new immigrants. For people who don’t speak English and have few job skills, it’s one of the only ways available to earn money.

    Food delivery guys don’t make much, but they can never compete with robots at scale. Serve plans to get the cost of a delivery down to $1, a price no human can compete with.

    Robots don’t complain, get sick, or try to unionize. If Serve can make enough of them, they will put human deliverers out of business.

    That leaves the food delivery guys in a difficult spot. New to the country, unable to speak the language, lacking in job skills, and put out of the one job they can do.

    What’s next for them? Some will gain skills and get better jobs. Others may turn to crime to survive.

    For the rest of us, robot food delivery will be a boon.

    Delivery guys on e-bikes careening along sidewalks is a major hazard of urban life right now. A delivery guy recently struck my friend’s mother, putting her in the hospital.

    Small robots packed with sensors moving cautiously will be a huge improvement in safety.

    And of course, $1 deliveries will cut costs for consumers. What’s more, with deliveries that cheap, companies could deliver more items affordably.

    Need a tube of toothpaste within minutes? No problem.

    Robotics and AI working together will automate many low skilled jobs, and soon. Bringing folks into America who aren’t qualified to do anything else is a mistake.

    Instead, we should focus on bringing in higher skilled workers who can contribute to technological progress. Think robotics engineers, not the folks whom robots will replace.

    For immigrants lacking in job skills, the future looks bleak. But we’re not doing them any favors by bringing them into this country with nothing to offer them.

    Do you think robots will take over food delivery?

    I hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas and New Years. Great to be back!

    More on tech:

    Which Jobs Will AI Replace? Which Jobs Are Safe?

    Tesla FSD 13 vs. Manhattan Rush Hour

    Your First Cybercab Ride

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Tesla FSD 13 vs. Manhattan Rush Hour

    Manhattan rush hour is the ultimate test of self-driving. So, how does Tesla’s new FSD 13 do? Let’s find out…

    Tesla started rolling out its latest self-driving system, FSD 13, over the last few weeks. Tesla owners are already raving about it. One even used FSD 13 in Manhattan and uploaded the results to YouTube.

    Driving Through Chaos

    The drive begins at Grand Central in the heart of Midtown Manhattan during rush hour. Right away, we encounter a very difficult left turn on Park Avenue.

    The Tesla has to navigate a divided street and make the left as cars, pedestrians, and bikes swarm around it. I’m on pins and needles just watching.

    The Tesla creeps up slowly and waits. Once the traffic has cleared, it accelerates confidently and makes the turn.

    Beautiful! But another difficult test is coming right up…

    Master of the Edge Cases

    In most of America, you can turn right on red. Not in New York City.

    The owner explains that his Tesla used to ignore this idiosyncratic law. That could be a huge problem, resulting in tickets or worse.

    Now, with FSD 13, it respects this unusual rule and waits for the green. Perfection!

    Since When Do Food Delivery Guys Use Rollerskates?

    Christmastime is peak insanity in Manhattan. The island is teeming with tourists from all over. I was there recently and it was difficult to even walk, much less drive.

    Everywhere this Tesla goes, pedestrians crowd around it. Bikes zoom this way and that way. There’s even a food delivery guy on rollerskates!

    FSD 13 navigates the situation just right, giving pedestrians a wide berth but not stalling out entirely.

    It’s driving better than the average skilled human. It’s driving like a human skilled at navigating New York City.

    Would I Use FSD 13?

    As great as FSD 13 is, I wouldn’t feel comfortable using it.

    The most recent data I can find (September) shows that FSD requires an intervention roughly every 13 miles. I can’t find any data specifically for FSD 13, but knowing I could have to intervene at any time would stress me out majorly.

    That said, watching the Tesla drive itself, it really does seem to know what it’s doing. Maybe it is safe?

    Game Over for Professional Drivers

    My cousin is a truck driver. He’s 59. By the time self-driving is everywhere, he’ll be retired.

    But if he were my age (38), I’d tell him to start training for a new job immediately. I’d say the same to any Uber driver or food delivery person (even if you use rollerskates).

    These jobs could be gone within 5 years. If you’re not training for a new career today, you’re making a huge mistake.

    Wrap-Up

    Tesla FSD 13 is incredibly impressive. They’ve built a near-perfect robotic driver using nothing more than cameras.

    And if it can navigate Manhattan rush hour without a single mistake, it should crush it everywhere else.

    This is the last post of the year. I’ll see you again on January 6th, 2025.

    Have a wonderful Christmas and a happy New Year everyone, and thanks for reading Tremendous all year!

    More on tech:

    Your First Cybercab Ride

    Autonomous Driving in Central London

    Why Most Startups Suck at Enterprise Sales

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order.