Tremendous

An angel investor's take on life and business

  • Missing Figure

    “Aghhh, how could I have missed this?” That was me on Friday, reading the headline: Robotics Startup Figure AI in Talks for New Funding at $39.5 Billion Valuation.

    I had a chance to invest in Figure’s seed round in the spring of 2023 via a syndicate. I passed.

    Again in the spring of 2024, I had a chance to invest, this time in their Series B. Yet again, I passed.

    If that wasn’t bad enough, I had yet a third shot at this company recently. Some secondary shares came available via a syndicate. And yet again, I passed.

    This incredible company was right in front of me and I blew it. Not once but 3 times!

    I’ve been kicking myself all weekend.

    So how the heck did I make such a big mistake? Let me take you through my thought process at the time…

    What Was I Thinking?

    When I first saw Figure in the spring of 2023, I was entranced.

    I was so excited that I wrote about it on the blog. Since then, I’ve written about it 3 more times (one, two and three are linked here).

    Shortly thereafter, I had an opportunity to invest in the seed round.

    The founder, Brett Adcock, is incredible. His last company, Archer Aviation, is valued at $5.4 billion in the public markets.

    But the price of Figure’s seed was extremely high for that stage. So, I thought there would be no upside.

    At this time, the most valuable robotics company I could find was Boston Dynamics, at around $1 billion. Given the high price of Figure’s seed, I didn’t see much upside.

    What’s more, I have no background in robotics and didn’t feel qualified to invest in it. I’ve only done software up to this point.

    As for the other 2 opportunities to invest, the valuations were even higher. So, my concerns on upside were even more acute.

    What I Got Wrong

    What I didn’t realize was how big these robotics companies would get. Figure’s latest valuation is nearly 40 times that of Boston Dynamics.

    What changed?

    The ability to use Large Vision Models to direct a robot’s behavior lets them do way more than before. When I saw Figure’s seed round, no one had pulled it off yet.

    Still, something like ChatGPT shoved into a Figure robot wasn’t impossible to imagine. But I failed to appreciate just how much this would drive the upside.

    The fact that I wrote about the company over and over should’ve given me a sign: Francis, invest in this thing! As Paul Graham said:

    “Curiosity is the best guide. Your curiosity never lies, and it knows more than you do about what’s worth paying attention to.”

    And yes, I’m not really qualified to invest in robotics. But what the heck makes me qualified to do any of this?

    4 years ago, I knew nothing about angel investing. I learned by doing.

    Today, I’m planning on broadening out a bit and doing the occasional deep tech deal. In those deals, I’ll learn as I go, just like I have in the vanilla software deals I’ve done thus far.

    It all comes back to this quote from Naval Ravikant:

    “If I always did what I was qualified to do, I’d be pushing a broom somewhere.”

    How Much Would I Have Made?

    If I had gotten this right, I would be sitting on about $500,000 of paper gains on a $30,000 investment.

    I typically put $5,000 into a seed round and $25,000 into the Series A. After considering dilution and fees to the syndicates, that $30,000 would have increased in value to around $500,000. And it would’ve taken less than 2 years.

    So yeah, that stings.

    Does Figure’s Valuation Make Sense?

    Of course, that $500,000 would only exist on paper.

    Given the huge increase in valuation, I’d want to sell 25% of my shares in secondary at this point. It’s good for me to trim my position over time. But, with the shares locked up in a syndicate, it would only be possible if the syndicate lead agreed.

    Getting liquidity on that $500,000 would be tough.

    Figure would need to IPO or get bought at that price or higher. For that to happen, the price would need to make sense to public markets or an acquirer.

    Let’s give Figure a very generous 50x revenue multiple. At that level, they’d need $800 million a year in revenue to justify that valuation.

    I don’t know what these robots cost, but let’s assume the first ones are pricey. Say, $100,000 each.

    Figure would need to deploy 8,000 robots this year to justify their valuation under these assumptions. So far, all we have in terms of public information is that Figure is doing a pilot at one BMW plant in South Carolina. I don’t get the impression there are anywhere near 8,000 robots involved.

    Of course, there may be a lot more going on that isn’t public information. But based on what we do know, the price seems like a major stretch at this point.

    Figure may grow into the valuation. I really hope they do! I think the technology is absolutely awesome.

    Wrap-Up

    Getting so tantalizingly close to an incredible outcome is exciting. And blowing it gives me a sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach.

    Here is the most critical thing I learned from this mistake: If I have a chance to back a founder who had a billion dollar exit when he starts his next company, take it. Ask no further questions.

    I probably won’t understand what they’re doing. No big shocker there — these people are smarter than me.

    The price will be high. Again, surprise surprise! I’m paying for that track record.

    Just put a check into it. End of story.

    Mistakes are inevitable, especially in venture capital. The future is hard to predict.

    But I will not make this mistake again.

    More on tech:

    Meet My Latest Investment: Querio

    The Coolest Startups from YC W25

    I’m About to Close the World’s Tiniest Venture Fund

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Stay Out of Debt

    I once met a startup that was $700,000 in debt. Never do this.

    Angels and VC’s invest money to buy shares in a company. If the company runs out of cash, you don’t have to pay us back.

    But there is another source of funding for startups: debt.

    First off, let me tell you in the strongest possible terms: before you sign anything, get legal advice. Going cheap here could cost you your butt.

    Now, let’s look at the various types of debt you commonly see at startups. Here are 3 types I see over and over:

    1) Venture debt. These loans are usually given by banks that specialize in working with startups, such as SVB.

    The loan usually comes along with a round of equity funding from venture capitalists.

    In most cases, venture debt does not include a personal guarantee. However, you should absolutely have your lawyer look over any paperwork to be certain that there is no personal liability.

    Venture debt was traditionally used by huge, pre-IPO startups. They have predictable financial models and can be pretty sure of their ability to pay back the loan.

    But increasingly, earlier stage startups are layering on venture debt. This is very risky.

    2) On Deck Loans. One of the biggest providers of general small business loans is a company called On Deck.

    These loans are very different from venture debt. They involve a personal guarantee.

    That means that if the business fails, On Deck can pursue your personal assets.

    Take on debt like this, and you put everything you have at risk.

    3) Stripe Loans. These are based on the revenue from your business. They usually don’t include a personal guarantee, but you absolutely must verify this before taking on any loan.

    Stripe may offer you one of these loans without you asking. But think long and hard before you take it.

    It’s very tough to make a business work. If you have to pay out a ton of your revenue to Stripe, it just got a lot harder.

    I was once an investor in a startup that wound up paying a huge percentage of its revenue to Stripe because of a loan. The startup failed.

    Don’t let this be you.

    My View on Debt for Startups

    No startup should ever take on one single penny of debt. Not for any reason.

    Building a billion dollar company is next to impossible anyway. Do you want to make it harder by layering on debt?

    No, you don’t.

    I am a huge proponent of the free market. I’m glad banks like SVB can offer venture debt and business loan providers like On Deck and Stripe can offer their loans.

    It’s a free country.

    But that doesn’t mean you need to take it.

    Wrap-Up

    If you study the all time greats in business, they have one thing in common: they avoid debt.

    Charlie Munger. Hetty Green, the richest woman on the planet around 1900. You name it.

    The same is true of little old Francis. I have never taken on debt for a business. The only personal debt I ever had was a $1600 school loan, which I paid off in 2006.

    Debt raises your risk. Life is risky enough.

    Whether as a business or personally, you can prosper without it. And when the tough times come, you’ll survive.

    The folks who are $700,000 in debt? They won’t.

    There will be no blog on Monday for President’s Day. See you on Tuesday!

    More on tech:

    What VC’s Won’t Tell You About Europe
    Meet My Latest Investment: Querio

    I’m About to Close the World’s Tiniest Venture Fund

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • What VC’s Won’t Tell You About Europe

    VC’s love to make fun of Europe. But here’s what most of them won’t tell you: they’re doing more investments there.

    America innovates, China replicates, Europe regulates. Cue the picture of the bottle cap. I know, I make fun of Europe too!

    But I’m also doing more investments there. And so are many of the big VC funds. So why are we putting more of our own cash into a region everyone derides as “mids”?

    Behind the Scenes in My Portfolio

    Out of my first 31 investments, only one was in Europe: Caribou in London. But my last two checks have been to European companies, and there will be many more to follow.

    The most recent is Querio, a fantastic data analytics startup in London. The founder, Rami, is as intense and driven as any in the US.

    The check before that was Recall, an incredible consumer startup. They make a tool to hold all the content you consume and query it any time, using AI.

    When I saw Recall at an accelerator demo day, I was stunned by the quality of the product and the company’s growth. The team was *chef’s kiss*, straight out of Uber.

    They’re based in Amsterdam. Was I going to let that stop me?

    Heck no. Passing on that deal could cost me millions.

    Talent

    Everyone in America can practically taste the money that will come from AI.

    Europe has some superb universities. We cannot afford to ignore this talent any longer. The potential rewards are just too great.

    Western Europe also provides an environment that’s stable enough for that talent to build incredible companies. It may not be an ideal place for a startup to grow, but it works well enough.

    Unfortunately, the same can’t be said for most of the developing world.

    European Founders Want Us

    European founders tell me American investors are highly sought after.

    Saying “We have American investors” provides cachet in Europe. That’s true both with European investors and with potential customers.

    European founders see American investors as a first choice.

    We’re easy to deal with. We give you a clear yes/no. And we actually wire the cash.

    Here’s a dirty little secret about some European “investors”: they don’t invest actual money. They want equity in exchange for some sort of “services,” whatever the heck those are.

    Often, these “investors” are fronts for dev shops staffed by engineers in Eastern Europe. They try to grab equity in companies by posing as investors, only revealing the real deal later.

    This is gross behavior. It would be unacceptable in America.

    To be clear, there are some fantastic European investors as well. But alas, the fake investors are still out there.

    Default Zoom

    When everyone met in person in SF pre-Covid, it was hard for Europeans (or even Iowans) to get venture capital. Now, Zoom is the default.

    When I talk to founders in YC, they’re all in SF. I’m in Jersey.

    But they tell me all their meetings are on Zoom, even with SF investors. It’s the only way to do the zillion back-to-back calls they have on their calendar.

    If a VC is meeting founders on Zoom, he may as well meet a few in London or Paris too.

    What’s more, the European founders can sell American customers a lot more easily in a Zoom world. Those customers have deep pockets and make quick decisions.

    A default Zoom world yields a European startup that looks pretty much like an American startup.

    The founders speak superb English. Their customers are American. They’re even incorporated in Delaware.

    If it’s got strong growth, why not throw a check into it?

    Valuations

    AI fever has led to obscene valuations in many American startups.

    We’ve all seen the reports of seed rounds at $500 million. But what’s less discussed is how common seeds at $25 million have become.

    It’s fine to do one of those occasionally. But if that’s your median entry price, it’s hard to make money.

    Deals in Europe are much cheaper. Companies that would raise at $15-25 million post in America are raising at $6-8 in Europe.

    That’s 2-3x the returns. Yum yum!

    Wrap-Up

    You always learn more paying attention to what people do, rather than what they say.

    Right now with AI fever, America is riding high. Our stock market is blowing away the rest of the world. We’re feeling our oats.

    But that fever has also made the seed market in America highly competitive. So, US investors are looking elsewhere.

    Where do our eyes land? On the excellent startups across the pond that look more and more like American companies anyway.

    Maybe it’s true that most Europeans are mids, maybe it’s not. But what’s the difference?

    “Most people” are irrelevant. Billion dollar companies are always made by outlier human beings.

    And there’s enough of them in Europe to keep us busy for a long time.

    More on tech:

    Meet My Latest Investment: Querio

    Meet My Latest Investment: Recall

    I’m About to Close the World’s Tiniest Venture Fund

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Demo: Google AI Studio Realtime Streaming

    I just did a video call with AI. Soon, you’ll be doing it too.

    I’ve been a big fan of Gemini for a while, paying $20/month for the latest version. So when I heard that you could do a Google Meet with an AI and ask it questions, I had to try it!

    The product is called Google AI Studio Realtime Streaming. I asked it 3 questions I actually need answered.

    Let’s see how it does!

    1) Dr. Google. I recently had a stye in my left eye.

    I took a course of antibiotics and it seems a lot better. But since I had my new AI buddy on the line, I thought I’d ask him to confirm it.

    I showed Google my left eye and explained the situation. Then, I asked if it saw a stye there now.

    “I don’t see a stye there currently,” it said. Perfect!

    In a few years, AI tools like this may do telehealth visits with patients. The AI can ask questions and work up a recommendation.

    A human doctor could see the recommendation and even watch the video if needed. Then, he could approve or deny what the AI suggests.

    This would lower the cost of medical care, big time.

    2) Save My Orchid! Right next to me as I type this is a beautiful white orchid. It’s doing well — a little too well.

    It’s nearly doubled in size since I bought it and is producing flowers one after another. But that does present a problem…does this guy need to be repotted?

    I turned on my camera and mic and showed Google the orchid.

    “I cannot make decisions based on what I see,” it said. Google AI Studio seems to be better at describing what it sees than making deductions based on what it sees.

    In time, I’m sure it will answer questions like this well. But for now, no dice.

    3) Choose My Next Book. Finally, I asked Google to help me find my next book.

    I’ve been loving this one called Hetty about the so-called Witch of Wall Street. “What other books might I enjoy if I liked this?” I asked Google, holding the book up to the camera.

    “I cannot access the internet,” Google responded. So, it couldn’t answer my question.

    Once these Realtime Streams are linked to the internet, this tool will really become powerful. Remember, ChatGPT couldn’t search the internet at first either. Now it can.

    Wrap-Up

    I was able to ask all these questions in just a couple of minutes. All I had to do was click a button and I was live with Google AI.

    So far, it’s pretty janky. In 2 out of 3 cases, Google couldn’t help me.

    But do you think this tool is going to get worse in the future, or get better?

    These tools only improve over time. Already, it gave me some useful health information. How long until it’s handling an entire telehealth visit?

    It’s incredible how far generative AI has come. We’ve gone from an error-prone chatbot to a useful, multimodal experience in just 2 years.

    Where will we be 2 years from now?

    More on tech:

    DeepSeek vs. Gemini Deep Research: Which Model Is King?

    ChatGPT Pro vs. Gemini Advanced vs. Grok vs. Claude

    Meet My Latest Investment: Querio

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Empty Planet (Part 3)

    America’s fertility rate is 1.66. I’m part of the problem — 39 with no kids thus far.

    With so few babies being born, America’s leadership is at risk. So, how do we get people to have some kids around here?

    Here are a few company ideas that might fix this mess:

    1) Better IVF. A single cycle of IVF runs around $20,000. Many women take 3 or more cycles to have a baby.

    What if IVF were cheaper and more effective? What if it cost $1,000 and it only took 1-2 cycles?

    When you lower the cost of something, you get more of it.

    This could involve easier methods of egg retrieval, better preimplantation genetic testing, etc.

    2) Make Embryos Great Again. As women get older, the quality of their eggs tends to fall.

    Apps to help women track their food and exercise, helping them optimize for egg health, could be interesting.

    Another option is to help women freeze their eggs sooner and more cheaply.

    The startup Cofertility has a fascinating spin on this. You can freeze your eggs for nothing if you donate half to another family.

    This is absolute genius. I would’ve loved to invest had I seen the deal.

    Alas, I did not. Next time!

    3) Back to the Land. Urbanization is bad for fertility. Space is at a premium and costs are eye-watering. Indeed, urbanization is negatively correlated with fertility all over the world.

    If folks could live in rural areas more easily, they might have bigger families.

    But rural areas can be hard to live in. All too often, schools are bad and jobs are few.

    Bringing better education and jobs to rural areas would help.

    Take Primer, a fascinating tool to pop up your own microschool of 25 children. You pick the teacher — no union involved. This way, you can get the best person on earth, even if he’s in India.

    I only wish I had seen Primer’s seed round. I would’ve loved to invest!

    4) Be Fruitful and Multiply. Religious families tend to have more children. One of the best ways to promote families could be a Bible study app.

    Imagine a Duolingo for the Bible. How does this not exist? And yet, I can’t seem to find one.

    We also need apps for natural family planning and apps to get religious communities together outside church.

    There are countless possibilities here. And they’re a lot more interesting than the 100th AI SDR.

    Wrap-Up

    More babies means more fun! It’s so great smiling at them, waving to them, and making funny faces.

    Moreover, a country and a world cannot thrive without humans. Aging, declining populations get poorer and poorer, as we’ve seen in Japan.

    If you’re interested in this issue, I heartily recommend the book Empty Planet. It gives a great overview of the problem.

    Now it’s our job to fix it.

    This is the last of the Empty Planet series. I’ll be back tomorrow with something…completely different. 🙂

    Ciao!

    More from the blog:

    Empty Planet (Part Two)

    Empty Planet (Part One)

    The Fertility Crisis

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Empty Planet (Part Two)

    China may lose the majority of its population by 2100. Its population has declined for three straight years. This decline will only accelerate.

    Fertility is rock bottom, at 1.18 children per woman. The one child policy is a major reason, along with increasing urbanization.

    Right on cue, China’s economy has begun to weaken. A nation that used to grow at incredible rates is now experiencing deflation.

    We’ve seen this movie before: Japan. Rapid economic rise, America worried about losing its #1 spot, bubble burst, falling population, deflation, decline.

    “China is becoming Japan. The only difference is that Japan became rich before it became old. China will not be so lucky,” write Darrel Bricker and John Ibbitson in the excellent book Empty Planet.

    Seeing the Future in Tokyo

    “Why are all those kids lined up?” I asked a Japanese friend of mine on a visit to Tokyo a few years back.

    We were passing a long line of children outside a coffee shop. I was confused — children don’t drink coffee.

    “It’s kodomo shokudou,” she said. “Children’s diner. They come and eat a meal for 100 yen or so.”

    These were children whose parents could not afford to feed them. Seeing this, I felt very sad.

    I’ve spent a lot of time in Japan.

    Most Americans imagine a techno-utopia. The reality is shuttered stores and growing poverty.

    This is what happens when a country’s population collapses: the economy collapses along with it.

    China is about to experience something similar. But it has far fewer resources to draw on than Japan does.

    How America Wins

    America’s fertility rate isn’t great, at 1.66. And yet, our population is growing.

    There’s a simple reason: immigration.

    From 2023 to 2024, America’s population grew by 3.3 million. 84% of that came from immigration.

    With all the anger about immigration, we forget what a profound power this is. Most countries cannot attract folks from all over the world.

    Take Japan. I know from firsthand experience how hard the language is to learn — I’ve been studying it for 11 years! And still, I can only read and write a little.

    Japan also has no history of immigration. They don’t know how to bring in a huge number of people and assimilate them.

    China and Korea are in the same boat: difficult languages and zero experience with immigrants.

    Meanwhile, we can open up the taps any time we please and get a refill of humans. This is a superpower.

    We don’t want criminals or people with no job skills. But we should be taking all the high skilled immigrants we can get.

    Bricker and Ibbitson are sanguine on America’s future in an emptier world:

    “Everything remains in its favor. Immigration, both legal and illegal, will bolster the population. Scientists, engineers, and programmers will flood into the still open American market, stimulating innovation.

    Wrap-Up

    When I was a child, the teachers told us the Japanese kids were going to leave us in the dust. It never happened.

    Today, people say the same thing about China. It’s not going to happen either.

    China’s population has begun to decline. Its economy is stagnant. It’s walking down the path Japan blazed in the 1990’s.

    Europe isn’t far behind.

    In this aging world, America is better positioned than any other country. But to stay on top, we have to press our advantage.

    We have to bring in the best people in the world. If we can do that, no one can stop us. In the words of Bricker and Ibbitson:

    “There is absolutely no reason to believe the twenty-first century will not belong to America.”

    More from the blog:

    Empty Planet (Part One)

    The Fertility Crisis

    One Billion Americans

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Empty Planet (Part One)

    If current trends continue, the last South Korean will die in 2750.

    Korea’s fertility rate is 0.72 children per woman, the lowest in the world. But nearly every developed country is below the replacement rate of 2.1.

    The United States is at just 1.66. And although most of us are unaware, fertility is collapsing even in the developing world.

    The global baby bust is the focus of the book Empty Planet.

    What’s Wrong with Korea?

    It’s not hard to understand why Korean women aren’t having babies.

    When an employer in Korea finds out a woman is pregnant, he usually fires her. Most Koreans live in the Seoul area, where apartments are tiny and expensive.

    Facing discrimination and the high cost of city living, it’s no wonder Korean women are having just one child, if any.

    It’s Not Just the Rich Countries

    One of the biggest untold stories today is that fertility is also collapsing in the developing world.

    Take India. Where could be more traditional than that, right?

    Yet India’s fertility has fallen below replacement rates and currently sits at 2.01 children per woman. Mexico is at 1.8. Brazil is even lower than the US, at 1.63.

    In many developing countries, sterilization has become common.

    After a couple of children, many women in India and Brazil undergo tubal ligation. Sterilization is common even among favela residents in Brazil, the poorest of the poor.

    Notice how different the facts are from the stereotypes. We always assume that women in poor countries produce many children.

    But in many developing nations, that is no longer true.

    What’s Driving the Decline?

    All over the world, people are moving to cities. They’re searching for better schools, better jobs, and a more exciting life.

    But once they’re there, they tend to have fewer children.

    Apartments are cramped and expensive. Kids no longer help parents to farm.

    Their parents still love them. But financially speaking, kids have become all cost and no benefit.

    Many religions tell folks to be fruitful and multiply. But as religiosity declines in much of the world, those exhortations are falling on deaf ears. In Latin America in particular, lower levels of faith have contributed to women having fewer babies.

    There’s also technology. Contraception has become much more reliable in recent years due to IUD’s and hormonal implants. These are far more effective than birth control pills.

    Wrap-Up

    The global collapse in fertility is one of the most important issues we face. But it’s happening slowly, so it’s rarely in the news.

    How will the baby bust affect China and America? And how the heck do we fix it?

    We’ll dig into that in part two, coming Monday.

    Have a great weekend, everyone!

    More from the blog:

    The Fertility Crisis

    One Billion Americans

    Which Jobs Will AI Replace? Which Jobs Are Safe?

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • The Coolest Startups from YC W25

    Demo day is coming up for YC’s W25 batch. This morning, I picked out the coolest startups in the group. Let’s see who I need to meet!

    Pave Robotics

    This one is insane — robots that fix cracks in roads!

    We could certainly use this here in Jersey, which has some gnarly pavement from time to time. I don’t know much about robotics, but if I did, I’d be all over this one.

    I wonder how much cheaper all our government services could get in a world of robots and DOGE.

    Amby Health

    Amby makes cutting edge software for first responders.

    One of my best friends is an EMT. He uses the jankiest, most ancient software you’ve ever seen.

    His field also suffers from severe staffing shortages. This product could make his life a lot better!

    I just contacted these guys to learn more.

    Archon

    Archon makes it easy for software companies to get federal contracts.

    Can you imagine how hard it is for a startup to get a federal contract today? That business is dominated by the big, slow, expensive “primes”.

    Archon can get you through FEDRAMP in 6 months instead of 16. Incredible!

    I hit these fellas up yesterday.

    Permitify

    These guys help building departments process permit requests faster.

    If ever there were a product that was desperately needed, this is it. Permit hell is one of the main reasons housing costs so much in this country.

    I’m booking a meeting with these guys now.

    Gale

    Gale makes getting an H-1B visa easy. Other platforms like Lighthouse do a great job on O-1 visas, but I think there’s room for a product that’s laser focused on H-1B’s.

    Bringing in the most talented people is the #1 thing America can do to stay on top. So, tools to enable that are a big focus for me.

    I booked a meeting with these guys for March. Can’t wait!

    Wrap-Up

    This post only covers the startups from this batch that have launched. There will be more launches in the coming weeks, which means even more cool startups to look at.

    Best of luck to these incredible companies!

    More on tech:

    Meet My Latest Investment: Querio

    DeepSeek vs. Gemini Deep Research: Which Model Is King?

    Early Stage Valuations Surge in New Report

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

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  • Testing the New Gemini 2.0 Models

    Google’s Gemini just dropped 3 cutting edge new models. This morning, I tried them all.

    Are these new models really better? Let’s find out…

    2.0 Flash Thinking Experimental

    This new model is designed for multi-step reasoning.

    I’ve been trying to learn about missile defense recently. So, I had the model evaluate ways to stop incoming missiles. This should be a good test of multi-step reasoning.

    Here’s the prompt I used:

    “I’m interested in new technologies that could help the United States stop incoming missiles, in particular ICBM and hypersonic missiles. What possible new technologies would be best suited to this task? Evaluate each possible new technology for viability.”

    Gemini gives us a reasoning trace, explaining how it will attack the problem. The trace is similar to how DeepSeek R1 answers questions.

    Gemini’s answer is fascinating, covering everything from directed energy weapons to cyber warfare.

    It’s a great overview, but I would’ve loved to see some links to more information. That helps me evaluate how accurate Gemini’s statements are. You can “Double Check Response,” but I’d rather just see the citations up front.

    Overall, I’m giving this model a B+.

    2.0 Flash Thinking Experimental with apps

    Google’s second new model is designed to reason using information in YouTube, Google Maps, and search.

    This power is what makes Google so dangerous. They have all the tools and can use them with AI to provide a better user experience.

    I asked Gemini to help me find a hotel for a trip to Tokyo that I’m planning. This should make good use of the Google Maps integration. Here’s the prompt I used:

    “If I’m planning a fall trip to Tokyo, which locations of the hotel Toyoko Inn have the best price? in particular, I’m interested in locations near a major train station, if possible.

    Tell me the best locations and give me prices for each one.”

    Gemini’s answer wasn’t very helpful. It provided a nice list of hotels, but no prices.

    It looks like the prices for fall aren’t available yet. But a better response would’ve included the typical rates at that time of year.

    I’ll give this response a C.

    2.0 Pro Experimental

    Lastly, we have the Granddaddy of Gemini. This model is for complex tasks.

    I had the model attack a difficult problem: finding startups that could increase American fertility. I gave it a complex prompt, searching for very specific types of companies:

    “I’m an angel investor interested in finding startups that can help increase fertility in the United States. Some possible approaches these startups could take: 1) Extend women’s fertility with drugs or medical procedures. 2) Make IVF more affordable and effective. 3) Make it easier to live and work in suburban and rural areas, as opposed to cities. (Urbanization correlates negatively with fertility.) 4) Promote religion (religiosity correlates with fertility). Please find me startups that take any of those approaches. Also consider startups that take other approaches to increasing fertility that I may not have thought of. When you find a list of startups, narrow it down to those that have raised $750,000 or less. You can find data on fundraising on Crunchbase, Pitchbook, etc. Give me the final list of startups in a table. Include the startup’s name, what the startup does, how much money it has raised, when it was founded, and where the startup is based.”

    Here’s what Gemini found:

    Gemini does a nice job of searching for startups and giving me the info in a readable format. I checked the information and it’s mostly correct, although sometimes Gemini got the funding amount or founded date wrong.

    I’m looking deeper into these companies to see if I can find an investment here…

    I’ll give this response an A-.

    Wrap-Up

    Gemini’s new models are great at analyzing mountains of data and pulling out useful info. They’re also awesome at tutoring, as we saw with the missile defense example.

    But the integration with other Google services and the internet as a whole could use some work. Simple things like pulling hotel prices or startup funding amounts sometimes don’t work.

    Overall, I’m giving Gemini’s new models a B+. They’ve got some great features but still need to work on accuracy.

    I still think 1.5 Pro with Deep Research is the most impressive Gemini model. It’s on par with OpenAI’s new Deep Research at 1/10th the cost with no rate limits.

    This is the best time to be in tech in the last 30 years. Every day, companies are releasing incredible new tools.

    What a time to be alive!

    More on tech:

    DeepSeek vs. Gemini Deep Research: Which Model Is King?

    ChatGPT Pro vs. Gemini Advanced vs. Grok vs. Claude

    Request for Startups – February 2025

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Request for Startups – February 2025

    YC recently released its Request for Startups. This morning, I decided to do my own. Here are the top 5 startups I want to see:

    1. Easier Ways to Navigate Zoning. Housing costs in this country are obscene. Restrictive zoning is the main factor driving these costs.

    I want to see founders use AI to make it easier to navigate zoning and construction permits. I met with one interesting company in this area recently, and hope to meet more.

    2. Missile Defense. We are at enormous risk from nuclear missiles. New, hypersonic missiles could pose an even greater threat.

    Existing missile defense systems are able to stop some projectiles, but not all. I’m interested in satellites, radar, and interceptors to stop incoming missiles.

    3. Ways to Increase Fertility. Americans aren’t having babies. Our country’s fertility rate has dropped below replacement.

    The same is true in most of the developed world. Even many developing countries are near or below replacement.

    I’m interested in treatments that could help women have babies later. I’m also interested in other approaches, like apps to promote prayer. Religiosity is highly correlated with fertility.

    4. AI Doctors. It’s no secret that healthcare in America costs a fortune. But what if we could make every doctor 10x more productive using AI?

    Imagine chatting with an AI bot via voice. You explain your symptoms and medical history. The bot asks follow-up questions.

    Afterward, the bot sends the information to the human doctor. This information includes the bot’s best guess as to diagnosis and treatment suggestions.

    The human doctor can either approve or decline the recommendations.

    Doctors would retain control. They’d just be way more productive.

    5. AI Tutors. A couple of weeks ago, I was trying to learn how missile defense works. So I had ChatGPT Advanced Voice and Gemini Live tutor me.

    My AI friends explained the basics of how missile defense works. I interrupted from time to time to ask questions.

    In 30 minutes, I learned more than a typical college class taught me in several weeks.

    We need structured courses that teach important skills using AI. Just as importantly, we need certifications for people who pass the classes. That way, AI tutoring can help people get better jobs.

    Wrap-Up

    When I look for investments, I like to start with identifying the biggest problems.

    High housing, medical, and education costs are huge burdens on countless families. Declining fertility could weaken our country. And enemy missiles pose a perennial threat.

    If we solve a big problem, we’ll be doing something worthwhile with our days. And we should make some money, too.

    If you’re working on one of these 5 ideas, let me know!

    More on tech:

    Meet My Latest Investment: Querio

    DeepSeek vs. Gemini Deep Research: Which Model Is King?

    Early Stage Valuations Surge in New Report

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order.