China may lose the majority of its population by 2100. Its population has declined for three straight years. This decline will only accelerate.
Fertility is rock bottom, at 1.18 children per woman. The one child policy is a major reason, along with increasing urbanization.
Right on cue, China’s economy has begun to weaken. A nation that used to grow at incredible rates is now experiencing deflation.
We’ve seen this movie before: Japan. Rapid economic rise, America worried about losing its #1 spot, bubble burst, falling population, deflation, decline.
“China is becoming Japan. The only difference is that Japan became rich before it became old. China will not be so lucky,” write Darrel Bricker and John Ibbitson in the excellent book Empty Planet.
Seeing the Future in Tokyo
“Why are all those kids lined up?” I asked a Japanese friend of mine on a visit to Tokyo a few years back.
We were passing a long line of children outside a coffee shop. I was confused — children don’t drink coffee.
“It’s kodomo shokudou,” she said. “Children’s diner. They come and eat a meal for 100 yen or so.”
These were children whose parents could not afford to feed them. Seeing this, I felt very sad.
I’ve spent a lot of time in Japan.
Most Americans imagine a techno-utopia. The reality is shuttered stores and growing poverty.
This is what happens when a country’s population collapses: the economy collapses along with it.
China is about to experience something similar. But it has far fewer resources to draw on than Japan does.
How America Wins
America’s fertility rate isn’t great, at 1.66. And yet, our population is growing.
There’s a simple reason: immigration.
From 2023 to 2024, America’s population grew by 3.3 million. 84% of that came from immigration.
With all the anger about immigration, we forget what a profound power this is. Most countries cannot attract folks from all over the world.
Take Japan. I know from firsthand experience how hard the language is to learn — I’ve been studying it for 11 years! And still, I can only read and write a little.
Japan also has no history of immigration. They don’t know how to bring in a huge number of people and assimilate them.
China and Korea are in the same boat: difficult languages and zero experience with immigrants.
Meanwhile, we can open up the taps any time we please and get a refill of humans. This is a superpower.
We don’t want criminals or people with no job skills. But we should be taking all the high skilled immigrants we can get.
Bricker and Ibbitson are sanguine on America’s future in an emptier world:
“Everything remains in its favor. Immigration, both legal and illegal, will bolster the population. Scientists, engineers, and programmers will flood into the still open American market, stimulating innovation.
Wrap-Up
When I was a child, the teachers told us the Japanese kids were going to leave us in the dust. It never happened.
Today, people say the same thing about China. It’s not going to happen either.
China’s population has begun to decline. Its economy is stagnant. It’s walking down the path Japan blazed in the 1990’s.
Europe isn’t far behind.
In this aging world, America is better positioned than any other country. But to stay on top, we have to press our advantage.
We have to bring in the best people in the world. If we can do that, no one can stop us. In the words of Bricker and Ibbitson:
“There is absolutely no reason to believe the twenty-first century will not belong to America.”
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