By 2054, South Korea could lose two thirds of its population. The scenario is not a war or pandemic. It is a collapse in fertility.

South Korea’s fertility rate stands at 0.72, the lowest in the world. At current rates, South Korea could cease to exist within 500 years. And fertility is expected to fall even further this year.

What’s happening in South Korea is a preview of a worldwide crisis. In America, in Europe, even in developing countries like India, fertility is collapsing.

Are we facing a future without humans? And what the heck do we do about it?

Baby Bonuses — A Failed Experiment

Facing a declining population, many countries have tried to encourage families to have more kids. Few have been more generous than Hungary.

Hungary spends over 5% of its GDP on subsidies to families. Parents are eligible for loans and grants from the state. And if you’re a woman with four or more children, you never have to pay taxes again!

Hungary’s fertility jumped for a few years. But it has now settled back down almost as low as it was before, at 1.36 births per woman.

At this rate, rapid population decline is assured.

In America today, both parties are falling all over themselves promising to subsidize families. But these payments won’t do much to increase our fertility rate, which currently sits at 1.67.

Promoting Religion

Even in a world of declining fertility, some people are still having lots of children. And they tend to have one thing in common: religious faith.

In a fascinating new book called Hannah’s Children, sociologist Catherine Pakaluk studies families with 5 or more children. She found that nearly all of them are religious.

Many religions encourage childbearing. And religious faith can help people believe that even with more mouths to feed, everything will turn out all right.

Extending Fertility

Our modern world encourages us to delay childbearing. There’s college, grad school, and career building to do.

By the time many women are ready to start a family, they’re already well into their 30’s or even 40’s. This means they may not be able to have as many children as they’d like.

Technologies that could extend fertility could change that.

What if we had improved IVF methods that allowed women in their 40’s and 50’s to easily have children? And what if those procedures cost 10x less?

Wrap-Up

As an investor, I view my job like this: find the central problems and fix them. If I can do that, the money end of it will take care of itself.

In most of the world, the baby bust is a key issue. The technologies to fix it aren’t obvious.

Apps that promote prayer and religious community could prove surprisingly powerful. And anything we can do to extend fertility could help families have those extra children so many want.

I look forward to a future with smiling babies everywhere. And if a few are sitting next to me on the plane, so be it.

How do you think we can encourage fertility?

Have a great weekend, everyone!

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