
Cyan Banister is one of the best investors ever, backing SpaceX, Uber, Flexport and more. To find the next great startup, Cyan asks an unusual question…
The Human Behavior Question
When she sees a new product, she doesn’t just calculate the Total Addressable Market (TAM). She asks herself “Does it shift human behavior?”
Cyan’s best investments changed human behavior in big ways.
Uber has us getting into stranger’s cars every day. We never would’ve done that 20 years ago!
It also let people turn on income whenever they need it. This wasn’t possible before.
SpaceX is shifting human behavior in even more profound ways.
Making high speed internet available worldwide is a massive change in human life. People in an African village can work remote jobs and make 10x what they’d make locally.
And if Elon gets us to Mars, that would be perhaps the biggest behavior change in the history of our species.
How Cyan’s Appproach Is Different From Other Investors
I’ve never heard any other investor ask this question.
Like most angels and VC’s, I try to calculate a TAM for startups I meet. But many of the companies I meet barely exist yet.
They’re just beginning to sign up customers. They may pivot to a completely new product and market several times before they hit product-market fit.
I can still do a TAM calculation. But all too often, it’s numbers in the air.
The real market size is unknowable. Any attempt to calculate it is an exercise in false precision.
That’s why Cyan’s method is better. Instead of trying to quantify that which cannot yet be quantified, she asks a qualitative question.
“Does it shift human behavior?” is an easier question to answer. And if a product gets us stubborn humans to change how we behave, it must have had a big impact.
I like to calculate the TAM as well, just for reference. But the exact number is less important than how the startup impacts our lives.
Wrap-Up
Cyan’s track record as an angel and now a VC is better than just about anyone’s. I can learn a lot from her, and so can every other investor.
I’m only grateful that people in our industry are so free with their secrets!
If you’re an investor, ask “Does it shift human behavior?” after every founder meeting. If you’re a founder, ask how your product can shift how we behave.
We all want to work on the most important problems. To get there, we have to change human life for the better.
P.S. I found out about Cyan’s method from a wonderful, vintage episode of the Angel podcast by Jason Calacanis. He does an in depth interview with Cyan during her time at Founders Fund. I highly recommend you watch the full hour interview, which you can find here.
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