Tremendous

An angel investor's take on life and business

  • How Founders Can Improve Their Pitch by Watching Game Film

    Founders: have you ever watched yourself pitch? Peyton Manning spent 20 hours a week watching game film. Here’s what you can learn from him…

    Careful study of game film gave Manning a huge advantage. But when most founders pitch investors, they just do meeting after meeting with little idea how they performed. 

    How to Use Game Film

    Here’s how founders can use game film to get an edge…

    1. Get the right tech. I record every single meeting I do using a tool called Fathom. It’s free and easy to use.
    2. Replay key meetings. You don’t have to re-watch every meeting you do. But re-watching some important meetings shortly afterward, while they’re fresh in your mind, can help you a lot.
    3. Are you talking too much? Fathom shows you the exact percentage of time you spoke. In my experience, fundraising meetings go best when the founder speaks about 60% of the time and the investor speaks around 40%. Most founders talk way more than that. That’s a mistake — it doesn’t allow investors enough time to ask questions.
    4. Look at the investor’s body language. Are they leaning forward with interest? Are their arms crossed in a defensive or skeptical pose? This tells you how they’re receiving your message.
    5. Ask AI for help. Fathom lets you easily copy the full transcript of your meeting. Dump that transcript into Grok or ChatGPT. Prompt it like this: “I’m a startup founder pitching an investor. Here’s a transcript of a meeting. How can I improve my pitch?”

    Investors Should Be Watching Game Film Too!

    I watch game film of my most important founder meetings. 

    When there’s a company I’m really interested in, I re-watch our call after so I can pick up on any details I may have missed. And sometimes, I dump the transcript into Grok and ask how I can improve.

    Grok told me to be more explicit about what I liked when I meet a startup. Sometimes I’m so eager to ask question after question that I forget to do that!

    Wrap-Up

    Pitching is a skill. Like any skill, you get better with practice.

    Watching yourself is one of the best ways to learn. You see what you do well and what you do poorly.

    Whether you’re Peyton Manning, a startup founder, or me, watching game film gives you an advantage. Your competitors aren’t doing it. 

    Press that advantage and raise more money!

    More on tech: 

    Why Short Decks Raise Millions

    How to Run a Pitch Meeting

    How to Tell If Investors Are Really Interested

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order.

  • How My “Fund” Is Beating Over 90% of VC’s

    This angel investing thing just might work! My “fund” is beating well over 90% of VC’s, according to AngelList data.

    How My “Fund” Stacks Up Against the Competition

    So far, my “fund” sits at 1.65x TVPI. This means that the total value of all my investments is 65% more than what I paid.

    Here’s how that stacks up against other funds…

    I made my first investment in June of 2021. That puts me in the 2021 Vintage.

    For 2021 funds, the 90th percentile for TVPI is 1.58x. At 1.65x, I’m well above the threshold for the 90th percentile. 

    AngelList doesn’t break down returns any more finely than that. So, we don’t know if my exact percentile is 93rd, 95th, etc. 

    Cracking the the 90th Percentile

    There are 35 investments in this “fund,” in total. That’s a typical number of names for an early stage venture fund. I closed “Fund 1” last month and now I’m investing out of “Fund 2.” 

    I still have about 15% of “Fund 1” remaining. That cash will go as secondary bets into the best companies, which should further increase my returns.

    So far, only 2 companies in Fund 1 have gone out of business. That really surprises me. I figured most of them would be gone by now!

    Avoiding those zeroes has helped the portfolio. But what has really moved the needle is the 3-4 most successful companies.

    So far, the best among them is Micro1, which recently announced its Series A at a $500 million valuation. 

    Three other startups in “Fund 1” have crossed $10 million ARR, a key milestone. I’m hoping to get multiple unicorns out of this fund, and I think it’s achievable.  

    How I Picked My Investments

    My method for picking startups is pretty simple.

    I look for builder founders working on huge problems. If I see early signs that their product is catching on, I place a bet.

    I look carefully at market size and traction. I also only invest in founding teams that can build a great product in-house.

    To find the 35 startups in Fund 1, I probably looked at 5,000 or more. That’s what the job is: a relentless winnowing of companies to find the very best. 

    Going from Markups to Cold, Hard Cash 

    Having strong TVPI is nice, but we can’t eat markups. So far, all my returns are on paper.

    That’s typical for a fund as new as mine. Most 4 year old funds have little or no actual cash returns, or DPI.

    If you invest at pre-seed and seed like I do, it can take 10-15 years for your best companies to finally hit an IPO. So, I would not expect DPI at this point.

    But eventually, those paper markups need to convert to cash. I’m watching carefully for opportunities to get liquidity sooner through secondary sales.

    Wrap-Up

    I have a long, long way to go with this portfolio. Good returns today don’t guarantee anything in the future.

    But for now, this is good progress.

    Even though I’m a small investor, I want to do the best job I can. That’s why I think of my investments as a “fund,” even though they’re not exactly Sequoia.

    I want to learn the business using small sums of money. Later on, I’ll be able to deploy larger sums intelligently using what I learned. 

    You want to learn poker at the penny ante table. Once your game is strong, you’ll be ready to join the high rollers. 

    More on tech: 

    Three Things Investors Should Never Do

    Meet My Latest Investment: Mozi

    My New Investment Strategy

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Three Things Investors Should Never Do

    Three things investors should never do during a founder meeting…

    1. Don’t be late. Seems obvious, right? But you wouldn’t believe how many people get this wrong.

      Founder time is the scarcest resource in the world. Do not waste it.

      I like to show up a little early. Then, I know I won’t keep anyone waiting.
    2. Don’t use your phone. Either give this founder your full attention or don’t meet with them at all.

      That means putting your phone down.

      I also don’t want to see you on e-mail, X, or anything else. Give the entrepreneur the respect he deserves.
    3. Don’t have side conversations. I saw a particularly bad example of this at a pitch event this week.

      As the founder presented, the investors couldn’t stop talking among themselves. It got so bad that I could barely even hear the founder anymore.

      This is very rude behavior. When the founder is talking, be silent.

      When it’s time for questions, by all means ask some! But don’t chat with the person next to you while the entrepreneur is speaking.

    Wrap-Up

    These 3 don’ts come down to one easy rule: give the entrepreneur your attention and respect.

    This pitch could be the most important moment of their professional life.

    You don’t have to invest in their company. But you do need to take this meeting seriously and treat them right.

    If you treat founders with respect, you can go to bed at night knowing you did the right thing. And as your reputation spreads, you might be surprised at the awesome deals that start coming to you. 

    Have a great weekend, everyone!

    More on tech: 

    How to Get Into Hot Startups

    3 Ridiculously Easy Things Every Investor Should Be Doing

    My New Investment Strategy

    Meet My Latest Investment: Mozi

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Goodbye Charlie

    This morning, I watched the sun come up over New York City. Twenty-four years ago, we were attacked. Today, we attack each other.

    “Where’s Dad?”

    To tell you the truth, I don’t know much about Charlie Kirk. But I do know that his wife and two small children are now alone.

    When a tragedy strikes a family, that family is never the same again.

    How is his wife Erika supposed to tell those two children that dad isn’t coming home?

    Violent Speech Leads to Violent Actions

    Charlie’s murder is the predictable consequence of violent rhetoric. For 10 years, the media has been screaming that conservatives are fascists and Nazis.

    Most people ignore them. But a few radicals actually believe it.

    Those radicals tend to be of low intelligence. They also tend to be mentally ill and struggling in life.

    They don’t have much to lose anyway. 

    “This is my chance to stop the next Hitler,” they probably think. If you truly believe that, violent actions are the logical next step.

    Stop and Think

    Of course, believing that Charlie Kirk or Donald Trump is Hitler is ridiculous.

    Hitler murdered millions of people. Charlie and Donald represent a moderately right leaning political movement in a democratic nation.

    But some people will adopt illogical, absurd beliefs. And they will act on them.

    So remember, the next time you’re tempted to say that Republicans are fascists or Democrats are traitors…

    Your violent speech may result in someone else’s violent actions. Even if you did not intend that, it can happen anyway.

    Think of Charlie’s little kids. Think of the next Charlie.

    FInal Thoughts

    A few nights after 9/11, we all walked out onto our sidewalks. As far as I could see, neighbors held candles.

    No one spoke.

    No one needed to.

    I will never forget that moment. And I hope that we Americans can remember how much we love our nation, and each other.

    “Charlie Kirk” by Gage Skidmore is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.

  • How to Get Into Hot Startups

    “How are you getting into seed rounds with just a $10k check?” Here’s how…

    Help a Founder, Win a Deal

    A couple of months ago, I met an amazing founder I’ll call “Jim”. Jim had recently left one of the best hard tech startups in the world.

    Now he was kicking off a fundraise for his new company.

    As soon as I met Jim and saw what he was building, I got really excited. And I was pretty sure other investors would be too. So I asked him…

    “Are you looking to meet other investors?”

    “That would be a big help!” he replied.

    How a Tiny Investor Squeaks Into a Great Deal

    Within a couple of hours, I had messages out to VC firms all over America. Soon, Jim had half a dozen VC pitches on his calendar.

    Fast forward a month…

    When I first met Jim, his round was in the early stages. Now, it was oversubscribed. I guess he crushed those pitch meetings!

    “Can I invest $10k?” I asked Jim.

    “Sure!” he said. Not long after, I had the wiring info in my inbox.

    Passive Investors Get the Scraps 

    Now, imagine if I had played this another way…

    What if after I met Jim, I just told him to let me know if he gets a lead investor. No help, no intros, no nothing.

    Would Jim have ever come back to me?

    Maybe.

    But I don’t like my odds.

    But I wasn’t passive. I did all I could to get Jim lots of meetings and help him close his round.

    Reputation Is Access. Access Is Everything.

    My help was just a tiny part of getting the round closed. The credit goes to Jim and his incredible team of builders.

    But as the Beatles say, “I get by with a little help from my friends.” 

    And if Francis helps you before he’s even an investor in your company, wouldn’t you want to let him onto the cap table?

    My check being probably the smallest in the entire round didn’t matter. It was the help I could offer that won me the deal, not the cash.

    This is how you get into great deals. Give the founder a reason to take your money!

    Helping Founders Isn’t Just for Little Guys

    And never forget, the big boys have to demonstrate value too.

    Do you think a super talented founder just takes any term sheet a VC throws at him? Not likely.

    The best companies often get multiple term sheets. The founder then picks which VC firm he wants to work with.

    The most helpful VC usually wins the deal.

    Wrap-Up

    Helping founders raises your chances of getting into great deals. It’s also a lot of fun.

    If Jim becomes a big success, I can say to myself, “I had a tiny hand in making that happen.” 

    If you want to invest in great companies, help a promising founder. You might be surprised the access that you get in return.

    Founders: What help do you need? Investors: how do you help founders?

    More on tech: 

    3 Ridiculously Easy Things Every Investor Should Be Doing

    My New Investment Strategy

    Meet My Latest Investment: Mozi

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Why Short Decks Raise Millions

    I just saw a founder raise $5 million with a 7 slide deck. Here’s how you can do it too…

    1. Title
    2. One sentence vision
    3. Team
    4. Traction
    5. Market size
    6. Competitors
    7. Ask

    Short decks raise more money, not less.

    People just flip through pitch decks. Make them easy to flip through!

    Highlight the most important info and get rid of everything else. That other stuff obscures your message and stops you from raising money.

    Of course, there are many other things you want to tell investors. But that’s what the meeting is for!

    This deck gets you that meeting.

    Don’t edit your existing deck. Flush it down the toilet.

    Start fresh and make a 7 slide deck the way I showed you above. Then, send it to some investors.

    You’ll be surprised how many more meetings you get!

    How long is your deck right now?

    More on tech:

    Your Deck Probably Sucks. Here’s How to Fix It.

    How to Run a Pitch Meeting

    How to Tell If Investors Are Really Interested

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Janesville — Or Why AI Will Be a Disaster for Jobs

    AI will replace millions of workers. Drivers, customer service agents, accountants. Creating good jobs for those laid off people is one of the most important things we can do. 

    I used to think the displaced workers would find new jobs on their own and wind up better off. I no longer think that.

    What happens when a huge number of people lose their jobs, suddenly? To find out, let’s take a look at what happened in 2008 in my home state of Wisconsin…

    Learning from Janesville

    Janesville, Wisconsin. Two days before Christmas, 2008. 

    Last vehicle rolls off the line. Black Tahoe.

    85 years of history and thousands of jobs, gone. I lived just up the road when it happened, in Madison. 

    The GM plant employed 7,000 people at its peak. They all lost their jobs.

    Many years later, those workers have never fully recovered.

    What happened to those hard working people is the subject of an excellent book called Janesville. 

    Trying and Failing to Adapt

    After they were laid off, many of the former GM workers signed up for job training. This is what you’re supposed to do, isn’t it? 

    And yet, the workers who signed up for retraining actually made less than the workers who didn’t.

    Five years after the factory closed, 3/4 of the workers said they were worse off financially than before.

    Proud People Struggling

    Unemployment in Rock County, where Janesville sits, reached 13%. Half the families hit by the layoffs struggled to afford food. 

    Janesville, once a prosperous community, began to have homeless children.

    The laid off workers were not lazy people. They had worked hard, year after year.

    But that didn’t matter anymore. 

    The economy had moved on, and they were no longer needed.

    What the Heck Does This Have to Do with AI?

    What happened in Janesville is about to happen everywhere.

    Millions of people will lose their jobs.

    In 2008, it was a financial crisis and offshoring. This time, the cause will be AI and robotics.

    The displaced workers will look for other jobs, and many will probably find them. But the new jobs will pay much less.

    We’ll also create new jobs that pay a fortune: Machine Learning Researcher, Robotics Engineer. But the displaced workers won’t be qualified for those.

    This means a permanent loss of income for the workers whom AI replaces.

    Kicked Down the Economic Ladder

    Let’s say you’re an accountant…

    Accounting is probably your best skill. If you had a better one, you’d use it and make more money, right? 

    In 5 years, software may replace most of what accountants do. That means many accountants will be laid off.

    What will these laid off accountants do? 

    Any new job will probably pay less. Their most valuable skill isn’t valuable anymore. They’re forced down the value chain to lower paid work.

    Maybe the former accountant will find himself at Wal-Mart or taking care of a disabled person as a home health aide.

    Those jobs are honorable. But they don’t pay very well. 

    Wrap-Up

    The AI revolution is a foregone conclusion. Our most important job today is figuring out how to deal with the fallout. 

    How to create jobs for displaced workers. How to help humans find meaning in a world of machines.

    If we do that successfully, we can reap the benefits of AI without creating instability.

    But if we fail, America is headed for a dark future.

    More on tech: 

    The End of Human Drivers: 7 Million Jobs at Risk

    Meet BMW’s New Factory Workers

    The End of Human Food Delivery

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Founders Passed On Me 7 Times. Here’s Why.

    Once or twice a year, a founder passes on me. Here’s how it happens and why I never take it personally…

    “Sorry, We’re Oversubscribed”

    I pass on 2,000 deals a year. But in the 4.5 years I’ve been investing, I’ve had a founder pass on me 7 times.

    Every time, it was because the round was oversubscribed.

    Imagine a company that wants to raise $5 million. They go to market and investors collectively want to put in $10 million.

    That means the startup is 2x oversubscribed.

    The startup could take the whole $10 million, but that would give them more money than they need. It would also mean selling more of the company than they expected, reducing ownership for the founders and any prior investors.

    A lot of founders don’t want to do that. That’s perfectly understandable.

    How Investors Get Squeezed Out

    So, you the founder need to refuse $5 million of those $10 million in investor commitments. One easy way to get the number down: cut out the smallest checks.

    For most of my angel investing career, I wrote $5k checks. If you’re massively oversubscribed, it may make sense to squeeze the $5k guy out.

    Today, I write $10k checks. But still, I can be vulnerable to being squeezed out of deals.

    But before you squeeze out a small angel, think about this…

    Many founders say that the most helpful people on their cap table were the smallest investors. It’s counterintuitive, but it happens over and over.

    I’ve introduced founders to major funds, key employees, and highly specialized lawyers to help them with thorny problems. Being able to help is one of the best parts of the job.

    Even the Big Dogs Miss Deals

    It’s not just the little guys that get squeezed out. In fact, the big guys probably get squeezed out more than I do!

    Big funds usually need to lead a round. In any funding round, there is usually just 1 lead.

    Sometimes two funds co-lead a deal, but that’s uncommon. And I’ve never seen more than two funds write big checks into a single round.

    As a founder raising money, you can take on lots of small investors like me. But you can only take 1 or 2 leads. That makes big funds especially vulnerable to being squeezed out of deals.

    Strange how venture capital works, isn’t it?

    Am I Missing the Best Deals?

    I don’t miss out on many deals. But are those missed deals the best ones?

    You’d think so. But “hottest deal” doesn’t always mean “best deal.”

    I invest at pre-seed or seed. The company is usually under a year old and almost always under 2 yrs old.

    These companies barely exist yet. No one can tell for sure what the best deals are.

    Some hot deals work out incredibly well. Others don’t.

    Some of the best deals of the last 20 years were stone cold early on. SpaceX and Airbnb are great examples of that, and they’re hardly alone.

    How I React When I Miss a Deal

    “Hi Francis! Unfortunately we cannot offer you an allocation in the round because it was 4x oversubscribed.”

    When I get one of those messages, I reply to the founder and wish them good luck.

    Here’s what I NEVER do…

    I never reply with a snarky comment. I never trash the company, either to the founder or anyone else. I never try to undermine them in any way whatsoever.

    For starters, it’s just wrong. Be professional. This is business.

    What’s more, acting like a jerk hurts your reputation. And in this business, reputation is everything.

    Never forget, startups are always raising money! Even if you missed this round, you may be able to invest in the future!

    Wrap-Up

    When people don’t get what they want, you see who they really are.

    So whether you’re an investor or a founder, if someone passes on you, don’t get bitchy. Be polite. Be professional.

    That’s how you do venture capital. That’s also how you do life.

    Founders: how have you handled an oversubscribed round? Investors: how do you react to getting squeezed out?

    More on tech:

    How to Get Started Angel Investing

    My New Investment Strategy

    3 Ridiculously Easy Things Every Investor Should Be Doing

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • The End of Human Drivers: 7 Million Jobs at Risk

    Around 7 million Americans drive for a living. What happens when they all suddenly lose their jobs?

    The End of Human Drivers

    Waymo’s robotaxis are in 5 markets and counting. Tesla Robotaxis are in Austin and SF. Self-driving semi trucks can’t be far behind.

    Millions of Americans drive a truck for their primary living. Another roughly 1.4 million make their living primarily from driving for gig platforms. Hundreds of thousands more drive buses, ambulances, and traditional taxis.

    Technological progress is often sudden.

    One or two Waymos trundling around. Then dozens. Now over a thousand.

    Those 7 million Americans are in serious trouble. Within the next decade, most may lose their jobs.

    These are not people with tons of skills. If they had that, they’d do something else.

    After all, driving usually doesn’t pay much.

    What will they do? How will they eat?

    “But We’ll Create New Jobs!”

    I can hear you saying it now. I used to say that too.

    And it’s true. But those drivers won’t be qualified for the new jobs.

    Imagine this future: driving jobs go away, more jobs as TikTokers are created. Do you think these truckers will become TikTokers?

    Or perhaps those truckers could become nurses.

    But nursing generally requires a bachelor’s degree. Most truckers don’t have one.

    Desperate Workers Mean Lower Wages

    And there’s another thing…

    Whatever new jobs are created, millions of unemployed drivers will be trying like hell to get them. That will make jobs harder to find and push down wages.

    And this is just for drivers!

    Countless other jobs are under threat from AI too. Software engineers. Accountants. Customer service agents.

    White collar and blue, educated and not, AI is about to gobsmack American workers.

    The Rich Get Richer

    An unfolding disaster for workers is a gold mine for corporations and investors.

    Full-time employment in America has been flat for 2 years. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is up over 40% in the same period.

    Companies just don’t need to hire like they used to. And the money they save goes to the bottom line.

    Picturing 2035

    It’s 2035. Millions of Americans have lost their jobs. Unemployment is high.

    Meanwhile, San Francisco and New York are glittering. Electric Ferraris ply the streets. VC’s and hedge funders sip coffee made by robots.

    Some have struck it rich. But across the nation as a whole, far more people have lost their jobs.

    And in America in 2035, majority still rules.

    Imagine the political fallout…

    Sky high tax rates. Expropriation of property. And surely some racism and xenophobia thrown in, even though the robots are the real culprits.

    Can’t Stop, Won’t Stop

    I’m not sure how we deal with this world. No one has ever successfully stopped a technology.

    Consider the technology we’ve tried hardest to contain: nuclear weapons.

    Nuclear weapons have spread anyway. 9 countries have them. That number is sure to grow.

    If we can’t stop nukes, we can’t stop AI and robots either.

    What’s more, AI and robotics will make wonderful things possible! Safer cars, easier deliveries, a maid for everyone.

    Even if we could stop it, I’m not sure I’d want to.

    Wrap-Up

    Here’s my best guess on how we’ll deal with AI hammering the labor market…

    Universal Basic Income. Massive public works programs, including expanding the military. Job retraining programs — which, if they’re anything like today’s programs, probably won’t work.

    By the way, when I wanted some scenarios on what the government would do, guess what I did? I asked AI.

    That tells you a lot.

    AI will eliminate millions of jobs, soon. What to do with those displaced workers will be one of the key questions of our time.

    Do you think AI will be a disaster for jobs?

    More on tech:

    Meet BMW’s New Factory Workers

    The End of Human Food Delivery

    The Iron Monster: China’s Massive Bridge Building Robot

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Industrial Stocks: Free to a Good Home

    Note: This is NOT investment advice.

    I see Hyundai cars everywhere. But the stock has been left for dead. 4 PE. And it’s not alone…

    These days, everyone wants to own the Mag 7. And they don’t want to own much else.

    Let’s take a tour of some old economy stocks and see how the markets are treating them.

    Autos: Priced for Extinction

    It doesn’t get more classically industrial than this. And unless you’re Tesla, in 2025 your car company is worth bupkus.

    The long term average PE for the S&P 500 as a whole is 16. But most car makers are trading far below that.

    General Motors is trading at a 6 PE. GM has just 1/75th the market cap of NVIDIA, the most valuable company in the world. This despite GM having slightly more revenue!

    I’m not saying GM should be worth what NVIDIA is. NVIDIA’s business has much higher margins and more growth potential.

    But does a 6 PE make sense?

    Just about every other auto stock shares GM’s malaise. Kia is at a 4 PE. VW is at 6. Even Toyota gets just an 8.

    The market is pricing auto makers as if they have a few more years to make money before they disappear.

    Auto technology is changing, to be sure. But is the picture really that dire?

    Mining: The Foundation of Tech

    Okay, maybe old school auto makers are a special case. Let’s try another industry. Something totally different.

    How about mining?

    Surely there are some bright prospects there! Everyone’s talking about how minerals are so important to electronics.

    And yet, many major mining stocks are in the toilet.

    Take Vale in Brazil. It’s the 14th largest miner in the world by market cap. And it sells at a mere 5 times earnings.

    Political risk in Brazil, I know, I know. But then how do you explain Fortescue, a major miner from Australia? It’s selling at just 6 times earnings.

    The picture for miners is slightly better than for automakers. But these stocks are still largely ignored.

    Communications: The Overlooked Backbone

    Let’s move a bit outside industrials. How about telecoms, one of the backbones of a modern economy?

    Comcast provides TV and internet across much of America. And if Comcast isn’t in your area, Charter probably is.

    Comcast and Charter have tens of millions of customers each. And they sell for PE ratios of 8 and 7 respectively.

    The Mag 7 and the S&P 493

    For any one of these old school companies, you could find risk factors.

    Risk of replacement by Tesla and BYD for Hyundai. Political risk for Vale. Starlink for Comcast.

    But look at the overall picture.

    The Magnificent 7 account for 34% of the value of the S&P 500. The remaining 493 stocks account for just 66%.

    The stock market is unusually lopsided. Any problems at giants like NVIDIA or Microsoft could send markets plummeting.

    At the same time, the S&P 493 have a lot of room to run.

    As we’ve seen, many of these stocks are solid, old school companies. And they’re trading at prices well below long term market averages.

    Investors have given up on the old school stocks. But for some of us, that could be an opportunity.

    Wrap-Up

    At some point, the AI fever will break.

    “Was it all just a fad? Am I about to lose my shirt?”

    Everyone will start selling.

    Let them! I’ll be holding steady.

    And as I do, those 493 forgotten stocks will function as a stabilizer. John Bogle nailed it:

    “Reversion to the mean is the iron rule of financial markets.”

    Note: This is NOT investment advice. I have 0 qualifications to advise anyone on their finances and I don’t seek to do so. I’m only offering opinion and a narrative about what I’m doing with my own portfolio. Please do your own research and make your own decisions.

    More on markets:

    Using Grok 3 to Manage My Stock Portfolio

    Markets Are Overreacting to Tariffs

    Hetty Green: The Witch of Wall Street

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