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Is Adam Neumann Coming Back to WeWork?

July 13, 2023

For many people, college is the most memorable time of their lives. Is Adam Neumann about to re-create it for adults?

From a new report in Fortune:

Neumann emerged on stage yesterday in a suit, rather than a T-shirt, I’ll note, and told us that the noncompete and nonsolicit agreements he signed with WeWork expire in October, as our own Anne Sraders wrote yesterday. But what exactly happens after that? Neumann offered a hint: “I think Flow has only two choices: compete or partner.”

Which route he plans to take remains a mystery.

Adam Neumann announced his new startup, Flow, last year. Flow is a chain of apartment buildings designed to foster a sense of community.

Neumann, always an ace fundraiser, pulled in $350 million from Andreessen Horowitz. With an expiring noncompete and a fat bank account, Neumann has some interesting options.

WeWork is currently trading at just $0.27 a share. The entire company is worth a mere $564 million.

Neumann could easily buy WeWork. All it would take is a little debt financing or some additional cash from Marc Andreessen.

Then, Neumann has a total institution. Like a college, you could eat, sleep, work and socialize all in the same place.

Call it FlowWork. Hey, Neumann is the branding genius, not me.

It might look like this:

8:00am: Wake up in your FlowWork apartment, a little hung over from building cocktail hour last night.

9:00am: Work a few floors down in a soaring, loft-style space.

12:00pm: Lunch in the FlowWork cafeteria. Ooh, lobster rolls!

1:00pm: Crank through some e-mails.

5:00pm: Time for Zumba at WeSweat! Located just three floors down, you really have no excuse not to show up.

7:00pm: Ahh, the cocktail hour. From the building roofdeck, you see dozens of other FlowWorks along the horizon, each pulsating with bass.

8:00pm: Tapas for dinner! What a great idea! That FlowWork chef never runs out of surprises.

9:00pm: A little Netflix on your midcentury modern sofa.

10:00pm: Time to bed down in those buttery smooth WeSleep sheets! Ahh, what a day!

This is not as farfetched as it sounds. Neumann’s original WeWork already had a co-living unit called WeLive.

Why not put the two together?

Young people would clamor for this. Americans report fewer friends than in the past. Old forms of community, like church and office, are on the wane.

It also might be a way for companies to finally get workers back in person. Subsidize blocks of employees all living in the same FlowWork!

Neumann’s return to the company that threw him out would be epic. And given WeWork’s powerful brand and low price, it would also make business sense.

I can’t wait for Neumann’s comeback!

What do you think is next for Neumann and WeWork?

Leave a comment and let us know!

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How VC’s Could Have Avoided FTX

Masa Pivots to AI

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Photo: “WeWork Coworking Space, 333 Seymour, Vancouver” by GoToVan is licensed under CC BY 2.0.

Justice Department Closes in on Short Sellers

July 12, 2023

FBI agents raided the homes of prominent short sellers last year. Now, criminal charges may be imminent.

From a new report in Bloomberg:

Anxiety over the Justice Department’s investigation intensified several weeks ago when the head of its market integrity and major frauds unit predicted at a legal conference that the public will start seeing results within a few months. He didn’t elaborate. Since then, short sellers have buzzed over who among them might be in the crosshairs.

The Meme Stock Bear

Andrew Left, a hedge fund manager famous for shorting meme stocks, was one of the short sellers whose home was raided. As I predicted at the time, his investors have pulled out.

Again from Bloomberg:

Two years after FBI agents showed up at his California home to seize computers and phones, the short seller who terrorized more than 100 companies and riled an army of meme-stock traders is describing what it’s like to feel hunted. His pioneering firm, Citron Research, no longer has investors. He’s all but stopped pitching ideas publicly. He even wiped his once-feared Twitter account.

The Justice Department has not made any specific allegations against Left. No one has proven he’s guilty of anything.

But Left’s short positions have already cost him dearly. He took massive losses shorting GameStop Corp in 2021 and finds himself ostracized in the industry and personally.

What Is the Government Looking For?

Short sellers typically short a stock, publish a negative research report, then profit when the shares fall. While the Justice Department has not said what exact wrongdoing they’re looking for, they may be digging into those reports.

Short sellers can make false claims about a company, then quickly cover their position. This way, they make money when the stock drops.

Whether the allegations are true doesn’t matter.

Short sellers may also engage in “spoofing,” or rapidly placing and canceling orders. This can drive a stock’s price down right as the research report hits.

If prosecutors can prove that hedge funds knowingly published false research in order to profit, or manipulated markets with spoofed trades, they could be in serious trouble.

How it Ends

I find it hard to believe the government will spend years investigating an industry and not charge anyone. After all, taking down a big hedge fund manager will make a prosecutor’s career.

What’s more, short sellers might be the least sympathetic group of people imaginable. If politicians think jobs in their districts are at risk due to a short seller raid, they will act.

I expect to see criminal charges filed against some or all of the subjects of this probe within the next few months. The government takes its time but when it hits, it hits hard.

What do you think the future holds for short sellers? Leave a comment and let us know!

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Photo: Andrew Left

Starting Your Raise? Talk to Angels!

July 11, 2023

Yesterday, I had a great conversation with a founder kicking off his Series A. He had an awesome product with serious traction — but one thing was missing.

He had no idea how to price the round!

Who could blame him? Though this founder had raised money numerous times in the past, he hadn’t come to market in a couple of years.

And what a couple of years it’s been!

I explained that with his nearly two million in revenue, he’d probably be looking at a pre-money valuation of around $20-25 million. In 2021, he might’ve commanded 5 or 10 times that.

Start with Angels

Although he faces a tough market, this founder’s approach is brilliant. Chatting with angels is a great way to start your fundraise.

Founders only come to market every year or two.

But we’re here all the time! We see actual deals get done and the prices at which they happen.

How to Get a Meeting

To get in front of us, show us what you have to offer. This is a good cold message:

“Hi Francis,

I’m the founder of Uber, a marketplace for black car rides. We have $20,000 a month in revenue, growing 20% MoM.

We will dominate the $76 billion taxi market. Our rides are cheaper, easier, and more comfortable.

I’m kicking off our seed round raise. Got 15 minutes?”

I’d respond to that.

But if you just connect to random angels on LinkedIn with no clear reason, don’t expect a response.

And if you’ve already got angels on your cap table, you’re really in luck! Booking a chat with them should be easy — it’s in their interest to help you!

Ask for Brutal Criticism

Angels can also give you feedback on your pitch in a low-stakes setting. No angel, whether they invest $1k or $100k, will make or break your company financially.

Where would you rather work out the kinks — in a pitch where $50,000 is on the line, or when $50 million is?

Whether you get a check or not, ask the investor for his most unfiltered feedback. You might hear something like this:

“It’s a cool concept, but black cars are a tiny market. This isn’t venture backable. No one’s going to invest in this.”

That stings. But take that feedback and act on it.

Do a better job of explaining how black cars can compete with taxis and how the taxi market is massive. Paint a vivid picture of a future multibillion dollar company.

Moving Up the Foodchain

Once you’ve perfected your spiel with angels, move on to VC’s. Start with mid-tier funds, then the top tier ones.

By the time you meet Sequoia, you’ll have made your pitch as compelling as possible. And you’ll have spoken to so many investors, you might even have competing term sheets!

Wrap-Up

Angels give you valuable market color and feedback in a low stakes setting.

And we like helping founders! It’s what gives us meaning in our work.

Take advantage! With the right advice, you just might raise like it’s 2021.

Do you talk to angels? Why or why not?

More on tech:

How VC’s Could Have Avoided FTX

The Trick I Stole from Benchmark

Save Money on Stuff I Use:

This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

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Miznon: The Professors of Pita

July 10, 2023

“Smell this.”

“Oh my God.”

“Amazing right?”

I attacked the massive mushroom pita, sauce spilling down my chin. Charred, umami, wonderful.

This is Miznon, an Israeli restaurant with several locations across New York City. Founded in Tel Aviv by chef Eyal Shani, it produces some of the best Mediterranean food anywhere.

I ordered the “whole forest” of wild mushrooms in a pita. The cooks used a broad variety of mushrooms, a great way to build flavor in any mushroom dish.

Each mushroom was beautifully caramelized yet retained it’s moisture. I have no idea what the spicy sauce is, but had I been alone, I would’ve licked the tray.

The grilled scallions give the sandwich a little extra kick. It’s wonderful to see veggies given the attention they deserve.

My friend had the lamb kebab. She’s a bit of a picky eater, but the lamb disappeared in a flash.

No one can resist Miznon.

Her lamb came with beautiful grilled vegetables. An ideal compliment to the unctuous meat.

“So, you’re not going to eat that pita?”

“No, it has gluten.”

“Can I have it?”

Miznon’s pitas may be different from those you’ve had before. They are Israeli style – thicker, softer, and pillowy.

I like to fold them up like a slice of pizza and stuff them into my mouth. The tender bread’s mild flavor is also the perfect home for Miznon’s deeply flavorful meats and veggies.

The whole check for 2 people was less than 50 bucks. Good luck finding that anywhere else in New York.

We went to Miznon’s Hudson Yards location, on the mall’s fourth floor. Seating is plentiful and the environment quiet.

Miznon has 3 locations in New York, including the bustling Chelsea Market. Stop in if you want an incredible meal at a great price!

What are your favorite NYC restaurants? Leave a comment and let us know!

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The Tonic of Wildness: Stokes State Forest

July 7, 2023

“We need the tonic of wildness…At the same time that we are earnest to explore and learn all things, we require that all things be mysterious and unexplorable, that land and sea be indefinitely wild, unsurveyed and unfathomed by us because unfathomable. We can never have enough of nature.”
― Henry David Thoreau, Walden: Or, Life in the Woods

As our car pulled up to the little cabin, I was full of anticipation. A whole weekend to enjoy the outdoors, greasy food, and good company.

Our Walden is Stokes State Forest. This beautiful state park is located on the northwestern edge of New Jersey, just over the border from Pennsylvania.

It’s only about 90 minutes from Hudson County, where my friend Tim* and I live. Even in July 4th weekend traffic, we made it in good time.

For this trip, we were in the lap of luxury: we had a lean-to! These little cabins give you a roof and four walls — and you never know how important that is until you don’t have it.

They even come with a lovely wood stove. But on this balmy summer evening, we wouldn’t be needing it.

Tim got the fire going faster than any city boy I’ve ever seen. On went the dogs — Thumann’s. If you haven’t had them, get some. They’re the best I’ve ever had.

Then we went non-traditional: nachos! You’d be surprised how easy they are to make over a campfire.

Just layer tortilla chips, cheese, corn and beans in a cast iron skillet. Put it on the grill for a few minutes until the cheese melts, and top with salsa and sliced serrano chilies.

¡Buenísimo!

We laughed and chatted by the fire, then headed to bed early. Those little lean-tos make for a cozy night’s sleep.

The next day at breakfast, I finally tried Taylor ham! 9 years in Jersey, and believe it or not I’d had it. It was perfect with fried eggs and leftover buns to sop up the grease.

Then we set off to hike Tillman’s Ravine. After all that sitting around stuffing our faces, getting moving was a nice change!

Tillman’s Ravine is a pleasant, easy hike. The trails are well-marked and not particularly steep.

There’s even a little waterfall!

We stopped at the Walpack Cemetery along the way. The graves are mostly old, a surprising number of them children.

“We have it so much easier now,” I thought.

We pulled back into camp, sweaty and tired. Time to grill up that special porkchop we’d been saving.

It came from Kinderhook Farm, which makes the best pork chops around. If you’re in the area, check it out!

As we sat around the fire, we mused on trips to come.

Tim’s brother just had his first child, a son. Soon, he and his dad will join us too.

“Before long, there will be a little chair there right between ours,” I said.

Our lives unfold from trip to trip. Things change, but that fire stays the same.

I hope to be out there when I’m 100.

What are your favorite memories in nature? Leave a comment and let us know!

Have a great weekend, everyone!

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*Name has been changed

Hedge Funds Have Performed Miserably for 30 Years

July 6, 2023

The hedge fund industry manages $5 trillion dollars. That money is managed so poorly you could do better throwing darts at a board.

From a Financial Times report out over the holiday weekend:

Using backtested data for the HFRI 500, hedge funds continue to be a clear laggard on a long view, returning 61 per cent in the 10 years to December 2022, versus 227 per cent for the S&P 500. Even that Vanguard 60/40 portfolio beat the hedge fund index seven years out of the 10 and returned 79 per cent over the decade.

How is 2023 shaping up? As of May 31, hedge funds were flat, year to date. US bonds were up 2.5 per cent. The S&P 500 had returned 9.6 per cent.

In 2008, Warren Buffett bet that the S&P 500 would outperform the best hedge funds in the world over the next decade. He won the bet.

It Gets Worse

But the deeper you dig, the worse the picture gets.

Hedge fund performance over the last 30 years has been abysmal. The Credit Suisse Hedge Fund Index has delivered a 7% annual return since January 1994, versus 9.8% for the S&P 500.

The Missing Million

That might sound similar, but it isn’t.

Let’s take the example of a $100,000 investment made in January 1994. Here’s what you’d get in hedge funds:

And here’s how you’d do in an S&P 500 index fund, like the ones I own through Vanguard:

Congratulations, you made an extra $953,000! In total, you came away with more than twice as much money as the hedge fund portfolio.

Fees Galore

Despite their miserable performance, hedge funds also layer the fees on thick. Most funds charge 2% of assets and 20% of gains.

To make things even worse, many investors go through a “fund of hedge funds.” You give a firm money, they pool it with other investors’ money, and then allocate it to a portfolio of different hedge funds.

That usually adds another 1% of assets and 10% of gains. You’re up to a 3% management fee and 30% of assets, every year!

No wonder hedge fund investors can’t make money.

And this, my friends, is what hedge funds are really about.

They’re vehicles for charging you fees. Nothing more.

But What About…?

There is the rare hedge fund that massively outperforms the market over the long haul. Jim Simons’ Medallion Fund is one.

Tellingly, Medallion is closed to all but the firm’s own employees.

Perhaps you can find another Medallion. But the odds are against it.

The Illusion of Success

So why do hedge funds continue to manage trillions? Because they look successful.

The managers drive sleek sports cars. They went to the right schools.

An ETF just isn’t as sexy.

Do you invest in hedge funds? Why or why not?

Leave a comment and let us know!

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More on Fundrise in this post.

If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

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I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

The Trick I Stole from Benchmark

July 5, 2023

Benchmark Capital might be the greatest venture firm on the planet. I stole a trick from them — and you can use it too!

This morning, I was chatting with a great young founder. We got past all the numbers and on to a real conversation.

He opened up to me about some a–hole investors he’s dealing with. I couldn’t believe some of their behavior.

And then, our time was up.

Here’s the trick…

I didn’t schedule any meeting right after ours. In fact, I almost never schedule back-to-back meetings.

How could I tell him I had to leave?! We were just starting to have a great conversation!

I just kept kibitzing with him until we finished what we were talking about. At the end of our call, I had a much better understanding of him as a person.

Benchmark avoids back-to-back meetings whenever possible. I read about that trick in the wonderful book The Power Law and stole it for myself.

Our business is all about the great founders. The one in 1,000.

When you meet someone great, you want to have the freedom to chat and kick around ideas at length. The conversation goes where it goes.

This helps me truly understand people. It also helps me build relationships.

You can’t always get to know people in 30 minute chunks. Sometimes, it takes longer.

I always want to have time for those great founders.

So if we book a meeting and I pick a weird time, this might be the reason. I want the freedom to chat with you longer if we need to.

We angels and VC’s are in a service business. We are here to help founders.

We do that best when we make every conversation a priority and treat each person with respect.

Part of that is keeping our calendars in check.

Give this a try and you’ll be amazed at the great conversations you have! And you never know…one of them might lead to an incredible investment.

How do you handle meetings with founders and investors? Leave a comment and let us know!

Great to be back! 😊

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More on tech:

How VC’s Could Have Avoided FTX

Late Stage Startups Face Bleak Funding Environment

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I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

How VC’s Could Have Avoided FTX

June 30, 2023

Sequoia Capital lost $115 million investing in FTX. Partner Alfred Lin says they’d do it again.

From Bloomberg:

“I looked at the work we did 15 different ways,” Lin said Thursday at the Bloomberg Technology Summit. “We probably would have made the investment again.”

Sequoia’s business lies in trusting founders and taking calculated risks, he said, and the lesson learned is sometimes the investments won’t deliver.

“It stinks,” he said. Then again, the $115 million investment Sequoia lost on FTX was just 2% to 3% of its global growth fund, he said, adding that the firm was “still very excited about the concepts of crypto.”

Alfred Lin is a legend. But here’s why I think he’s wrong…

A venture capital firm investing a substantial sum should do due diligence. They owe it to the people who trusted them to invest their money.

Even a cursory diligence process should’ve uncovered huge problems at FTX. Those problems would easily be enough to stop any investment in the company.

From a CNBC report:

[New FTX CEO John] Ray, who helped shepherd Enron through its own bankruptcy, minced no words about the state of the company or the behavior of the former executive team, describing it as one of the worst examples of corporate controls he’d ever encountered. It was a damning remark from someone who has 40 years of legal and restructuring experience.

“Never in my career have I seen such a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information as occurred here.”

The losses for investors may reach as high as $8 billion. But with nonexistent or deficient accounting, auditing and disbursement systems, it will take Ray and his forensic investigators “some time” to uncover the truth.

VC’s with a strong diligence process log into a company’s Quickbooks. They make sure the numbers add up.

They also comb through bank statements, looking for unusual expenses. The odd employee mansion would certainly qualify.

The big firms that invested in FTX, like Sequoia and Softbank, have large teams of people and massive budgets. They can easily afford a few accountants and lawyers to dig through financials.

I know firms that do this when they’re investing $500,000. Surely Sequoia’s nine digit investment should trigger at least the same level of diligence.

Without diligence, a VC’s investors have no security for their money. The firm also gets a reputation as light on diligence, which will have every huckster beating a path to their door.

So what happened to Sequoia and all the other top firms that put their money with this criminal?

They succumbed to FOMO, just like everyone else. After all, if they took time for diligence, they might lose out on the deal!

FOMO is the ultimate killer of investment returns. It gets us rushing headfirst into rotten investments, incinerating our capital.

We have to be willing to miss deals. We have to maintain standards.

Since an angel investor like me doesn’t have the right to deeply diligence a startup’s books, I partner with lead investors I trust. I know their diligence process is thorough and I can rely on it.

It’s okay to make mistakes, in investing or anything else. But we have to learn from them.

The lesson of FTX is that no matter how special a deal seems, always kick the tires.

Do you agree with Alfred Lin? Leave a comment and let us know!

The next blog will be on Wednesday, July 5. Have a great holiday weekend, everyone! 🎆

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More on tech:

Late Stage Startups Face Bleak Funding Environment

Masa Pivots to AI

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This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

More on Fundrise in this post.

If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order.

I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

Why I’ve Never Invested in Crypto

June 29, 2023

“Did you own a lot of crypto?” my lunch companion asked?

“Actually, I never put a dime into that.”

“That’s impressive.”

Since the market peak in 2021, crypto has been crushed. What was supposed to be the future looks increasingly like the past.

The NASDAQ Crypto Index of major tokens is down by more than half.

FTX has collapsed, and Binance may not be far behind. Even Coinbase stock is down nearly 80%.

In 2021, I saw countless crypto startup deals.

Each one sounded like an incredible opportunity. If I didn’t hop on this trend now, I might be left behind!

But then I dug just a bit beneath the surface.

Company after company had no product in market. That means no customers and not a single dollar coming in the door.

Except from fundraising.

Pre-launch companies raised at $100 million valuations or more, day after day.

Meanwhile, I was investing in companies with real products and customers at much lower prices. Startups with hundreds of thousands in revenue were available at prices below $20 million.

I realized that a lot of crypto startups are just fundraising exercises. They create hype, pull in checks, and take them to the nightclub in South Beach.

Okay, maybe I wasn’t seeing anything promising in crypto startups. But how about the tokens themselves?

I researched Solana, Elrond and others. Some of the technology was impressive.

But as I considered buying Solana in the fall of 2021, its market cap was around $100 billion.

“In anything speculative, I want to see the possibility of a 100x return,” I told a friend. “So what, Solana is going to be worth $10 trillion? I don’t think so.”

Despite the innovative tech, the price seemed obscene. Over time, markets came around to my opinion, and the price fell 90%.

Before I dislocate my shoulder patting myself on the back, let me explain something. This took no special insight.

I just applied to crypto the same criteria I apply to all my startup investments.

I want to see a product in market with real customers. I want to see a few hundred thousand a year in revenue, growing fast.

I want to see a real business.

If a crypto company hits those benchmarks, I’d be happy to invest. But good luck finding one.

My hunch is that crypto is over. I expect to see all those hot 2021 crypto deals become zeros.

It’s been 14 years since the introduction of bitcoin. We’ve yet to find a use case aside from speculation

Meanwhile, in just a few months, LLM’s are widely used across the world.

My lesson here: focus on the business. Don’t focus on hype, FOMO, or the actions of the crowd.

If you buy slices of great businesses at reasonable prices, you can win. If you throw money at every passing fad, you’re toast.

What do you think the future holds for crypto? Leave a comment and let us know!

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More on tech:

How I Research a Startup

Late Stage Startups Face Bleak Funding Environment

Masa Pivots to AI

Save Money on Stuff I Use:

This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

More on Fundrise in this post.

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