Tremendous

An angel investor's take on life and business

  • “We have $20 million worth of LOI’s with major companies in the space.” Whenever I see a phrase like that, I roll my eyes.

    Letters of Intent (LOI’s) are one of a series of what I call “meaningless metrics.” They’re supposed to show that a startup is doing well, but they actually make a company look weak.

    When founders rely on meaningless metrics, they are giving a negative signal to investors. Why would you use them if you had something more substantive?

    The Metrics That Don’t Matter

    Let’s run through a few of these meaningless metrics:

    1) Letters of Intent (LOI’s). Angel investor Jason Calacanis calls these “letters of nothing” for good reason.

    LOI’s have no legal force. A big company can give you an LOI for $100 million, but good luck ever collecting on it.

    An LOI is basically just a press release. It makes a big company look innovative without actually having to commit.

    Whenever a startup mentions LOI’s, I assume they’ll never collect a penny of it.

    2) Cumulative revenue. Whenever I see this, I suspect the founder is trying to pull the wool over my eyes.

    Cumulative revenue is how much money your company has taken in throughout its entire history. It’s a number that always goes up, by definition.

    Some founders love this number. It always produces a chart that’s nice and uppy-to-the-righty.

    That’s why it’s meaningless. Every startup shows the same cumulative revenue chart.

    Any investor worth his salt will pick up on this. And he’ll ding you for trying to pull a fast one.

    3) Pipeline. Pipeline is companies you might some day sell to.

    I could list 100 companies I might sell a product to someday. It doesn’t mean it’s going to happen.

    Tell us about the sales you’ve actually made, not just who’s in your CRM.

    4) Startup competitions. You could win 100 startup competitions, but it doesn’t mean you’ll get one customer. It also doesn’t mean you’ll raise a penny in capital.

    Your time is much better spent finding customers. The real startup competition happens in the market, every day.

    That’s the one you need to win.

    5) Forbes 30 Under 30. Please Forbes, I beg of you, get rid of this list!

    A magazine putting you on some list doesn’t put money in your company’s bank account. It also doesn’t tell investors whether your product is good or bad.

    Win in the market, not in meaningless competitions.

    Meaningful Metrics

    If these 5 metrics are meaningless, what would be meaningful?

    Customers are meaningful. Real customers paying real money for your product.

    Team is meaningful. Show investors that you’ve assembled an awesome team perfectly suited to taking on the problem you’re facing.

    Product is meaningful. Show me a product with world class design, and I’m all ears.

    Focus on those 3: customer, team, product. Everything else is nonsense.

    What metrics matter to you? Which ones make you cringe?

    Leave a comment and let us know!

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    More on tech:

    AI Seed Funding Down 50%

    Why I Love a Down Market and More at Starta VC

    Google Search AI vs. GPT-4: Smackdown!

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Seed investors are souring on AI startups. Seed funding for AI and machine learning startups is down by over 50% year over year, according to a new report by Fortune:

    “I think investors are growing a little bit fatigued with the seed investments they made two to six months ago that are almost going to zero overnight due to a single tech release, or what have you…because so many of them are OpenAI wrappers,” [Redpoint Ventures Principal Meera] Clark believes, referring to companies whose businesses rely on A.I. models like GPT.

    How the Mania Happened

    Shortly after OpenAI released ChatGPT, I saw a ton of startups like this. They amounted to ChatGPT with a slightly different look and feel.

    That’s not defensible. But it is easy to pop up quickly.

    Investors are always afraid of missing the next big thing. So people threw money at these companies. No revenue and a fat valuation were par for the course.

    How to Spot a Good AI Startup

    Now that founders have had more time to build, I’m seeing much higher quality AI startups. And as the initial buzz has begun to fade, valuations are looking enticing.

    So how do we know a good AI startup from a bad one? I like to ask two questions…

    1) How much of this can be done with ChatGPT?

    This is why I don’t like most blogging tools. You can write a solid blog post on ChatGPT. You don’t need custom software to do it.

    Even if your tool is a little better, people are used to using ChatGPT. The only way you’ll get them to switch is if you’re 10x better — a high bar to clear.

    2) How easily can an incumbent add this feature?

    Take the example of a generative AI startup that helps you make slide decks. It’s useful — but is it defensible?

    Today, many people use Powerpoint or Canva to make a deck. Microsoft or Canva can just add an API call to OpenAI and pop up some generative AI features.

    Once that happens, you’re in trouble.

    You’re asking people to change their habits and switch to your platform. And you’re trying to charge for what Powerpoint is giving away.

    You’re going to lose that battle.

    An AI Company That Got it Right

    If you can’t do the job with ChatGPT and incumbents can’t easily take your business, now I’m interested. A good example would be my latest investment, Micro1.

    Micro1 finds top engineers by scanning their resumes with GPT-4. Then, it teaches them to be more productive coders by using GPT-4.

    You can’t do this with ChatGPT, and there’s no easy way for incumbents to match Micro1’s offering. These thoughtful implementations of AI make great bets.

    Wrap-Up

    Investors shouldn’t lose hope in AI. The opportunity is massive — perhaps the biggest in our lifetimes.

    We just need to evaluate each company soberly, like any other investment.

    Does it deliver real value to the customer? Is it defensible? Does the price make sense?

    If I can answer yes to all three, I’m making the bet.

    Are you investing in AI? Why or why not?

    Leave a comment and let us know!

    If you enjoyed this post, subscribe for more like this!

    More on tech:

    Why I Love a Down Market and More at Starta VC

    Google Search AI vs. GPT-4: Smackdown!

    The Secrets of Sand Hill Road (Part One)

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • While I was doing some Googling last week, a little box popped up. “Use generative AI?” I was skeptical…could it really compare to GPT-4?

    But I had to give it a shot!

    For the last few days, I’ve been running one query after another through the new Google Search Generative Experience (SGE). The results have been impressive.

    But can Google compete with the AI heavyweight, GPT-4? To find out, I ran a series of head-to-head tests using the same prompts.

    Let’s see how they do…

    Round 1: Market Research

    One of my favorite uses for GPT-4 is market research. This morning, I was researching the market for movers as preparation for a meeting with a startup in that area later this week.

    I wanted to know how big the moving market is. Let’s ask GPT-4…

    GPT-4 gives an excellent result, totaling residential and commercial moves. It even provides projections for the future.

    Let’s try Google SGE…

    Google doesn’t understand the question. Rather than give me stats about moving, it just shows stats about the residential real estate market in general.

    The fact that a fifth of all the value of real estate in America is in California is an interesting stat, but it has 0 relevance to my question.

    GPT-4 takes this round.

    Round 2: Legal Research

    Startups like Harvey are making huge inroads in legal research. So I turned to AI to answer a legal question of my own on inspection rights.

    GPT-4 gives us a great answer, explaining how inspection rights work under Delaware law. Inspection rights let shareholders examine books and other business records, so long as its for a legitimate purpose.

    Let’s see what Google has to say…

    Google also gives an excellent response. It clearly explains what rights shareholders have in Delaware, and how they’re exercised.

    We’ll call this round a tie. And wow….lawyers are in trouble.

    Round 3: Technical Research

    For the last few days, I’ve been researching an e-commerce software startup for potential investment. When I met with the founder, a term came up that I wanted to know more about: “headless e-commerce.”

    Let’s see what GPT-4 can tell us…

    GPT-4 gives a detailed explanation of how headless e-commerce works. It fills us in on all the key tools and explains the benefits in flexibility they provide.

    On to Google SGE…

    Google’s response gives a little bit better detail on why merchants use headless e-commerce architecture. It lets them provide a more flexible and better user experience.

    But it gives us less detail on the actual tools they use to accomplish that. I’m going to call this round a tie as well.

    Wrap-Up

    Both Google SGE and GPT-4 do a great job of answering most questions. And for a company that was woefully behind a few months ago, Google’s showing is impressive.

    But GPT-4 is still better. It understands my questions at a deeper level, and the information it provides is more relevant.

    Google does have one huge advantage: distribution. Unlike OpenAI or Microsoft, Google can put it’s SGE in front of billions of people instantly.

    Google could win the AI race, despite its late start.

    Have you tried Google SGE? What do you think?

    Leave a comment and let us know!

    If you enjoyed this post, subscribe for more like this!

    More on tech:

    Professor GPT

    Why I Love a Down Market and More at Starta VC

    The Secrets of Sand Hill Road (Part One)

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Why do I love down markets? What do venture capitalists and Hasidic diamond merchants have in common?

    I dug into that and more at a great Q&A session recently with interns at Starta VC in NYC. Here are some of my favorite moments:

    10:13: How pro rata rights work.

    12:16: Why I prefer a down market.

    18:54: The only thing that matters for investors.

    20:35: My take on AI.

    23:38: What venture capitalists and Hasidic diamond merchants have in common.

    31:08: Why I love SaaS.

    43:40: When I’m expecting a recovery in the venture market.

    44:55: What I want to see in a startup.

    47:34: Why ideas don’t matter.

    49:03: Are AI startups overvalued?

    53:02: Why angel investing is the best business degree on earth.

    56:58: Why Twitter will 10x in 10 years.

    What were your favorite moments? What did I get wrong?

    Leave a comment and let me know!

    Have a great weekend everyone!

    If you enjoyed this post, subscribe for more like this!

    More on tech:

    The Secret to Selling Your Product: Vision

    The Secrets of Sand Hill Road (Part Two)

    The Secrets of Sand Hill Road (Part One)

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Jim* had an interesting product, but I was having trouble following his pitch. He skipped from idea to idea and feature to feature, leaving me confused.

    Jim: “SaaSy is a sales tool for teams. Here’s the messages screen. This is where you go to book a meeting. We’re planning on adding a Slack integration once we get enough resources from this fundraise.”

    I sat there, quietly stumped.

    “What’s the real value proposition here?” I thought to myself. “And if I can’t understand it, how will a customer?”

    Sell a Vision, Not Just a Product

    Some founders have a solid product with decent traction. But they just can’t tell the story.

    I pay close attention to a startup’s metrics. But if the founder can’t sell the vision, I’m out.

    Scott Kupor, Managing Partner of Andreessen Horowitz, emphasizes how important a great pitch is in his excellent book, The Secrets of Sand Hill Road.

    “….VCs are trying to determine whether this founder will be able to create a compelling story around the company mission in order to attract great engineers, executives, sales and marketing people, etc. In the same vein, the founder has to be able to attract customers to buy the product, partners to help distribute the product, and, eventually, other VCs to fund the business beyond the initial round of financing. Will the founder be able to explain her mission in a way that causes others to want to join her on this mission?”

    So much of being a founder is selling — to customers, employees or investors. If you can’t do it, you’ve got big problems.

    How to Get It Right

    How could Jim do better? Here’s what I’d like to see…

    Jim: Our product, SaaSy, will change the way sales is done forever. Salespeople can close deals 10x faster.

    Me: Can we run through a demo?

    Jim: Sure! The customer comes to the dashboard, where he sees a list of top prospects from LinkedIn. These are the people most similar to those who have bought in the past.

    Me: Cool!

    Jim: Then, he can send automated messages to each of them to book a meeting. Each message is personalized.

    And it all happens with one click.

    Now, he can spend less time sending cold messages and more time meeting with great leads.

    Jim has clearly shown not just what his product does, but why it matters.

    No one is going to be impressed with a tour of features. But show them you’re solving a real problem they have, and they’ll be reaching for their wallet.

    Keep Your Presentation Tight

    In early stage startups, the founder does most of the selling. If he rambles and can’t quickly show his product’s value, he won’t make many sales.

    Keep your pitch tight and focused. Clearly tell me what the company does and why it matters.

    You should be able to demo a product in about 3 minutes. Save lots of time for questions.

    When you answer a question, don’t go into a long story. Your answer should take about as much time as it took to ask the question.

    Wrap-Up

    When a founder presents a compelling vision and shows me how he’ll get there, I get excited. So do customers and employees.

    Get lost in details, and you’ll lose your audience as well.

    What do you think makes a great pitch? Leave a comment and let us know!

    If you enjoyed this post, subscribe for more like this!

    *Jim is a composite, not an actual person.

    More on tech:

    The Secrets of Sand Hill Road (Part One)

    The Secrets of Sand Hill Road (Part Two)

    From AI to Satellites, US Dominates All Competition

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • In 2009, a small startup called Square was raising its Series A. Andreessen Horowitz saw the deal and passed. That mistake cost them $4.8 billion.

    The Pitch

    Square (now Block) had a big idea: make it easy for small merchants to take credit cards. It had an awesome product: a little dongle you could plug into your phone and accept credit card payments anywhere, any time.

    But there was one problem.

    Although Jack Dorsey of Twitter fame was a co-founder, he wasn’t the CEO. That spot was held by Jim McKelvey, a childhood friend.

    “…we didn’t know Jim nor did we have a good way to evaluate his skills as a CEO for the company, and we wondered whether Jack might prove to be a better long-term CEO for this business.”

    Scott Kupor, The Secrets of Sand Hill Road

    Andreessen liked the concept, but wasn’t sure if Jim was CEO material. So they passed on the deal.

    A $4.8 Billion Mistake

    The Series A instead went to Khosla Ventures. They invested $10 million at a $40 million post-money valuation in November of 2009.

    Today, that stake would be worth approximately $4.8 billion, assuming 50% dilution.

    For any investor, our biggest mistakes aren’t the deals we did. It’s the ones we didn’t.

    $10 million is a lot of money to you and I, but to Andreessen Horowitz, it’s nothing. But holding on to that money because the deal wasn’t perfect cost them one of the great investments of all time.

    Scott Kupor, Managing Partner of Andreessen Horowitz, recounts this fascinating story in his book The Secrets of Sand Hill Road.

    What Went Wrong?

    Where did Scott and a16z mess up here?

    They should’ve taken one look at this deal and dropped a massive pile of cash on Jack’s head.

    His other company, Twitter, was already a unicorn by September of 2009. He was clearly one of the great entrepreneurs of his generation.

    Maybe a16z would’ve preferred Jack in the CEO slot. But no deal is perfect!

    If these startups had every single thing figured out, they’d be in the Fortune 500 and they wouldn’t need us. Every deal will have its imperfections.

    But when one of the greatest entrepreneurs of his day gives you the opportunity to be in business with him, you take it. End of story.

    When Opportunity Knocks…

    I put this theory into practice in the summer of 2021.

    The deal memo for Callin was at the top of my inbox. I worked late into the night researching the company, a social app for audio.

    Callin hadn’t hit all the benchmarks I usually look for. But in the end, only one detail really mattered.

    David Sacks, the co-founder of PayPal, started it. I was in.

    Ultimately, I didn’t get an allocation. The deal was massively oversubscribed. And in the end, Callin was acquired for a modest sum, never having quite found an audience.

    Nonetheless, I would make that bet again any day.

    Wrap-up

    The opportunity to invest in Jack Dorsey seems like the perfect deal to me. But we can pick holes in even the best pitch.

    We have to remember to not just think about what could go wrong for a startup. We have to think about what could go right!

    Would you have invested in Square? Why or why not?

    Leave a comment and let us know!

    If you enjoyed this post, subscribe for more like this!

    More on tech:

    The Secrets of Sand Hill Road (Part One)

    What I Learned From an Investor Who Turned $100,000 into $100,000,000

    Zero to One

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

    Photos: “Jack Dorsey” by magerleagues is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0. and “square dongle close up” by adafruit is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 2.0.

  • Venture-backed startups have created virtually all of the net new jobs since 1977. Of the top 5 US companies by market cap, every single one raised venture capital.

    Venture capital has a huge impact on the US economy, but few people understand how it works. In The Secrets of Sand Hill Road, Scott Kupor, Managing Partner of Andreessen Horowitz gives us his investing playbook.

    Focus on the Market

    “…the cardinal rule of VC investing: everything starts and ends with market size.”

    A tiny fraction of companies give VC’s basically all their returns. To create a massive company that will make VC’s money, a startup has to be in a huge market.

    After a little over two years investing in startups, my biggest lesson has been to focus on the market. A company building in a huge market at least has the chance to become something big.

    Reputation Matters

    “….the startup community is a small one, and many people are repeat players in the ecosystem…”

    Scott finds most of his deals through his network. He has a great reputation as an investor, so good deals come to him.

    But if an investor has a reputation for being dishonest or meddlesome, those good deals never reach his desk.

    I try to be as helpful as I can to the companies I invest in. And when it doesn’t work out, I do my best to be supportive, rather than pointing fingers.

    That’s partly just because I don’t want to be a jerk. But I’m also well aware that in every interaction, I am either building my reputation or ruining it.

    Finding Deals

    One area where I disagree with Scott is in his emphasis on warm intros.

    I too make a lot of investments that way. But I don’t think we can count on the best founders to seek us out.

    A great founder might not pitch Scott because he’s already met with Benchmark! And if that’s true for someone with Scott’s high profile, it’s doubly true for me.

    That’s why I think contacting startups proactively is important, and do it regularly. The best startups won’t always find you.

    How Angels and VC’s Work Together

    VC’s like Scott and angels like me form a powerful symbiosis.

    “Angel or seed investors are often an important source of referrals for VCs. It helps that they are upstream from the VC’s in that they are typically investing at an earlier stage than might a traditional VC. As a result, many VCs develop relationships with angel and seed investors, with whom they live in a symbiotic relationship in the venture world. Angel and seed investors have a direct interest in seeing the companies in which they have invested raise additional (and usually bigger) capital downstream from VCs, and the VCs are interested in a curated pipeline of interesting opportunities in which to invest.”

    That’s why I love meeting VC’s, especially if they invest in the same areas as me. My companies need to raise more money in the future, and they can make it happen.

    This is also great for VC’s like Scott. I meet tons of companies and show them the best ones, making their job a lot easier!

    Wrap-Up

    This book contains a wealth of information on the nitty gritty of venture capital. Scott explains all the ins and outs of term sheets, board formation, and a lot more.

    That’s more detail than I can cover here. But if you want to know everything there is to know about raising money, this is the book for you.

    My top takeaway as an investor is to shoot for the biggest outcomes. We can’t take down big game by aiming at pigeons.

    A huge thanks to the wonderful Mash Kabir for sending me this excellent book! Check out his company, Sparrow, to take your startup’s marketing to the next level!

    Have you read The Secrets of Sand Hill road? Do you plan to?

    Leave a comment and let us know!

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    The Hard Thing About Hard Things

    The Power Law (Part One)

    Amp It Up

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

    Photo: Sand Hill Road, By Coolcaesar – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0

  • Billionaire investor Carl Icahn took a massive loss Friday as his company, Icahn Enterprises (IEP), slashed its dividend by half. From a new report in Forbes:

    Shares of Icahn Enterprises plunged 25% Friday morning after Carl Icahn’s firm cut its quarterly distribution in half, leading to a $1.7 billion drop in the 87-year-old billionaire’s net worth—months after infamous short-seller Hindenburg accused the company of “ponzi-like” behavior.

    The Hindenburg Report

    In total, Icahn has lost over $6 billion since May, when short seller Hindenburg Research released its report. The report claimed that IEP uses new share sales to fund unsustainable dividends.

    But it’s not just Hindenburg that’s nosing around. The US Attorney and the SEC are probing IEP, per a Bloomberg report.

    There is no proof that Icahn or IEP has acted improperly and no charges have been filed. But some of IEP’s financial practices seem questionable.

    A History of Poor Performance

    IEP has made operating losses for years. But continued share sales provide the cash to pay a huge dividend, which props up the stock’s price.

    In fact, nearly all recent dividends came from just giving shareholders back their own money. From a report in The Wall Street Journal:

    Hindenburg also pointed out that the company has been paying dividends of late through cash on hand rather than investment profits, largely through returning capital to shareholders. Tax documents for Icahn investors after the most recent dividend payment showed that of the $2 payment investors were receiving, $1.80 was a “return of capital.” That bolstered Hindenburg’s argument that the dividend was unsustainable.

    Icahn Enterprises Reaches the End of Its Rope

    Now that IEP’s stock is falling hard, it may be difficult for them to sell more shares. Without those share sales, they can only keep paying dividends for so long.

    I agree with Hindenburg that IEP is likely to cut the dividend further, perhaps to zero. If it does, the stock is likely to crater once again.

    IEP in its current form is not a sustainable business. Its operations make losses every year which are papered over with new stock certificates.

    IEP must either find a profitable business model or shut down.

    What’s Next for Carl Icahn?

    Carl Icahn has bought himself some breathing room by working out new terms for his massive personal loans. But much of his net worth remains tied up in the failing IEP.

    Add investigations by the US Attorney and SEC, and Icahn could be facing disaster.

    What do you think the endgame is for Carl and Icahn Enterprises? Leave a comment and let us know!

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    More on markets:

    Carl Icahn Losing $900 Million a Day

    Hedge Fund Andurand Loses Majority of Fund

    Justice Department Closes in on Short Sellers

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • From AI chatbots to venture funding to rockets, the US isn’t just ahead of competitors. Increasingly, it has no competition at all.

    I met with a great entrepreneur from Japan this week who recently moved to New York. I told him how much I loved Japan when I visited.

    His response:

    “It’s a great place to visit. But it’s not a good place to do business.”

    The US Dominates Venture Capital

    This founder was trying to raise capital for his startup. Given US domination of VC funding, it seems he’s come to the right place.

    US companies raised four times as much venture capital as startups from our nearest competitor, China. We exceed the UK and France combined by a factor of 5.

    And Japan, this founder’s home, saw just $5 billion in venture funding last year. OpenAI alone has raised more than that.

    The picture is even more lopsided when it comes to AI. The US blows away all competitors in funding, investing 5 times as much as China or all of Europe.

    Space Is Ours

    US dominance goes beyond venture capital. Increasingly, even space belongs to America:

    Beginning about 5 years ago, the number of US space launches…well…skyrocketed. Much of this is due to SpaceX.

    In 2022, 83% of all objects launched into space were launched by the United States. As space becomes increasingly important for communications and more, the US has the industry almost to itself.

    R&D Is Our Bread and Butter

    The US even accounts for almost half of all global R&D spending. At $710 billion, our investment in R&D is nearly double that of the entire European Union.

    Money abets innovation. But what’s really setting the US apart from its competitors is a unique culture.

    Why American Culture Wins

    I know a great young founder from France. I invested in his company last year, an exciting dev tools startup.

    Sure enough, he built that company in San Francisco, not Paris. We caught up at a cafe in New York this summer.

    “My friend told me that in Europe, if you fail at something, you’ll never have a chance to do that thing again,” I said.

    “He’s absolutely right.”

    That mentality will never produce innovation. Innovation requires constant, brutal failure…until you figure it out.

    From Fierce Competitor to the Only Game in Town

    What you’re seeing is US advantages in both culture and money compound. The 21st century may be the time when the US finally pulls away from the rest.

    US GDP per capita is already double that of the EU. I can imagine a future where it’s 5 or 10x.

    Unless…

    What could derail America? I think the biggest threat is anti-immigrant sentiment.

    Immigrants are scrappy. Immigrants take risk.

    They’re far more likely to be entrepreneurs. Google, SpaceX, and NVIDIA were all founded by immigrants.

    We’ve succeeded because we’ve taken the most talented people in the world and put them in the world’s best environment for innovation. Lose that, and we lose it all.

    Let’s double down on our strengths and make America the best it’s ever been.

    Do you think the US will dominate the 21st century? Why or why not?

    Leave a comment and let us know!

    Have a great weekend everyone!

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  • Imagine the perfect teacher. She’s an expert on every subject, but can explain it like your five. She’s patient, answering as many questions as you want.

    And forget $50,000 a year tuition. What would you say to…$0?

    Well, we’re here! ChatGPT just might be the best teacher in the world.

    Reading up on defense tech recently, I encountered a term that broke my English major brain: “synthetic aperture radar.” What the heck is that? So I asked one of my favorite teachers: ChatGPT.

    I started by asking for a basic overview of what synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is.

    GPT explained that SAR makes the radar antenna move. It also uses microwave radiation.

    This makes it easy to see through clouds and capture very fine detail.

    But I wasn’t really clear on how that antenna motion works. So I asked a follow-up question.

    GPT explained that the antenna moves in order to capture the target from different angles. That gives you a higher resolution picture.

    I was also curious whether this was a new technology or not. Turns out this amazing tech has existed since the 1950’s! Drones and other aircraft use it today.

    What I have here is a world expert on any topic I want.

    It can tell me about synthetic aperture radar and answer very specific questions. Then it can move on to the Napoleonic Wars in seconds.

    Let’s imagine Version 2.0 of this technology…

    I boot up ProfessorGPT, and her smiling face greets me on the screen. “Hi Professor, can you tell me about the big five personality traits?”

    “Sure Francis! Let’s start with Openness…”

    I could ask follow-up questions and get answers entirely by voice. And when I’m stuck, ProfessorGPT could keep explaining topics to me for hours, unconstrained by the bell.

    For students in good schools, ProfessorGPT could supplement human teachers. It’s nice to have an expert by your side when you’re struggling with that tough math problem at home!

    For those in rotten schools, ProfessorGPT could be a way out. If their regular teacher is unqualified or indifferent, they can turn to a wealth of knowledge from AI at little or no cost.

    But most of us aren’t in school at all. We don’t have anyone to teach us something new. And all too often, we stop learning.

    ProfessorGPT could teach us Portuguese before we head off on a trip. Folks in nursing homes could stay sharp learning new skills like how to play chess.

    There’s no limit to what this technology can do. And we’re very close to building a true Professor GPT that feels almost as natural as the real thing.

    AI chatbots using voice already exist. CarynAI, a chatbot girlfriend from Forever Voices, is but one example. Synthesia makes AI avatars that seems so human it’s uncanny.

    It should be no problem to marry those technologies to GPT and create the greatest teachers we’ve ever had.

    Are you working on education tools using AI? Have you used any great tools?

    Leave a comment and let us know!

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    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

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    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order.