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FTC Investigates Big Tech’s AI Investments

January 26, 2024

The FTC has launched an investigation of several big tech companies’ AI investments and partnerships. The investigation could spell trouble for big tech and cut AI off from a major source of funding.

From a new report by CNBC:

The Federal Trade Commission said Thursday it will conduct an extensive study on the artificial intelligence field’s biggest heavyweights, including Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Anthropic and OpenAI.

FTC Chair Lina Khan announced the inquiry during the agency’s tech summit on AI, describing it as a “market inquiry into the investments and partnerships being formed between AI developers and major cloud service providers.”

Restraint of Trade

Microsoft has invested billions in OpenAI. Amazon and Google are backing Anthropic.

So OpenAI and Anthropic must be sitting on a ton of cash, right? Well, it’s a little more complicated than that…

Much of the tech giants’ “investments” in OpenAI and Anthropic came in the form of compute credits. This means that OpenAI and Anthropic have to use their partner’s cloud service.

In a truly competitive market, OpenAI would compare the price and service of AWS, Azure, Google’s GCP and others. Then, Sam Altman would give his business to whoever offered the best deal.

But because of the Microsoft partnership, Azure wins by default.

I’m not a lawyer. But if this isn’t restraint of trade, I don’t know what is.

Widening the Moat

AI partnerships make Azure, Amazon’s AWS, and GCP better cloud platforms. Smaller cloud companies will find it hard to compete.

They not only need to set up data centers. Now they have to find billions to invest in an AI startup and form a similar partnership.

AI partnerships expand the moat for the big cloud providers. The FTC may find that this qualifies as anticompetitive behavior.

Who Will Fund AI?

It can cost billions of dollars to train a new AI model. If the FTC unwinds big tech’s AI partnerships, who will fund this research?

Microsoft gave OpenAI $13 billion in cash and compute credits. No venture firm in the world can afford to do that.

If regulators do reverse these partnerships, startups like OpenAI will need to make huge changes.

They can try to use smaller models that require less compute. Or, they can go public and hope to raise billions.

Wrap-Up

The FTC probe is just getting started. But if Lina Khan finds that Microsoft, Amazon and Google restrained competition with their AI partnerships, expect a major shake-up.

OpenAI and others will have to find a new funding source. And Big Tech’s AI strategy is back to square one.

What do you think the FTC will do? Leave a comment and let us know!

Have a great weekend, everyone!

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What It Takes to Raise Money Today

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What It Takes to Raise Money Today

January 25, 2024

What does it take to raise money right now? Here’s what I’m seeing in the market for pre-seed, seed, and Series A:

Pre-Seed: $100k ARR or less

Pre-seed deals usually have a trickle of revenue, but not much more.

I did a pre-seed deal recently at $75k ARR — on the higher side for this stage. Revenue is typically growing 10-20% MoM or more.

The amount raised is usually $500k to $1 million. Valuations are generally under $10 million post-money.

Some pre-seed companies raise money with just an MVP. Those founders tend to have impressive backgrounds and big networks of angels and VC’s.

Seed: $200k to $2 million ARR

In 2021, many companies raised a seed round with no revenue and sometimes no product either. Today, that’s not going to fly.

Most companies I see successfully raising seed today have significant revenue. Many would’ve easily met the benchmark for a Series A in the hot market.

Today, you can get them at seed prices. You can bet I’m loading up my cart with these!

The amount raised is usually $2-4 million. The valuation is around $10-15 million post-money.

Not only do you need a lot of revenue to raise seed right now, you need solid growth. The hurdle is usually around 10% MoM.

Series A: $2-5 million ARR

Of all the rounds you’ll ever raise, Series A might be the hardest.

In 2021, $500k ARR or less might have been enough to raise a Series A. Today, it takes a lot more.

You’re going to need several million a year in revenue. And it better be growing quickly — aim for 10% MoM.

The amount raised is usually between $5-12 million. That comes at a post-money valuation of around $30-50 million.

The Outliers

There is no dictionary definition of a Series A or any other stage in a startup’s life. And for every normal round, there’s an outlier.

Last year, I invested in two pre-seeds that each had over $2 million ARR. That’s very unusual.

But the companies hadn’t raised any real money before, so that first round was known as a “pre-seed.”

Then there are the LLM startups. These folks are playing a different game than the average company.

They need to spend many millions on compute. The investors are often strategics like Nvidia or Microsoft that don’t care about making a financial return.

This results in crazy rounds like Mistral AI’s $111 million seed raise.

The average startup should ignore these rounds. They don’t mean anything for you.

Wrap-Up

It’s a heck of a lot harder to raise money than it was a couple years ago. I don’t see that changing any time soon.

Build a great product, get paying customers, and keep your burn to a minimum. That gives you the best chance to raise.

And remember that raising money is a means to an end. It’s customers that make or break you — not investors.

What has raising money been like for you? Leave a comment and let us know!

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Why Cloud Platforms Will Win the LLM Race

January 23, 2024

Just about every day, a startup raises hundreds of millions to build an LLM. But the real winner in the LLM race won’t be a startup.

LLM’s Are Becoming Commoditized

Every morning, I launch a browser set to open to 3 tabs: GPT-4, Bard, and a model from a startup called Phind. I play them off each other, working toward the best result.

Turns out, they’re pretty similar.

Phind is a little more concise, Bard is better with video, and ChatGPT is good at finding sources. But the differences are small.

The LLM itself is starting to feel like a commodity.

That doesn’t mean LLM’s aren’t awesome. But it does mean that in themselves, they’re not defensible.

Cloud Computing + LLM’s Is the Product

LLM’s may not be a defensible product in themselves. But Big Tech is hard at work turning them into a complete product.

Satya Nadella has poured $13 billion into OpenAI. Microsoft quickly integrated OpenAI’s tech into Azure, Microsoft’s cloud computing platform.

If Azure offers an easier and better way to give your app AI features, you’re going to use Azure. This is the chance Nadella’s been looking for to dethrone AWS and become the top dog in cloud computing.

Even small startups have created LLM’s. But starting a cloud computing platform takes massive resources. Building a single AWS data center can cost over $2 billion.

The costs and complexity of running a cloud platform mean that only a handful of tech giants can do it.

The End Game for LLM Startups

If LLM’s are becoming a commodity, the price will approach the cost of doing a query. With margins cut to zero, LLM companies need a different offering in order to stay alive.

A big licensing agreement with a cloud computing provider is perfect. Acquisition is probably the best exit available, if the FTC will allow it.

Expect to see LLM startups racing to ink a partnership with a big cloud company. The problem is, most already have a partner.

Microsoft has OpenAI, Google is using its own models, and AWS has a close relationship with Anthropic. This leaves most LLM startups out in the cold.

Wrap-Up

When ChatGPT came out last year, I was visiting family back home in Wisconsin. I’m embarrassed to admit I spent half the trip playing with it.

It was one of the most incredible pieces of technology I’ve ever seen. But although ChatGPT is as good as ever, it now has tons of competition.

Expect tough times ahead for most LLM startups. They may have incredible tech — but so does everyone else.

Who do you think will win in AI? Leave a comment and let us know!

There will be no blog tomorrow. See you on Thursday!

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Forget Founder Friendly. Be Founder Focused.

January 22, 2024

“I love this team and your product is amazing! I just couldn’t get my partners there. We’ll be cheering from the sidelines!” How many times have you heard that?

Well, you won’t hear it from me.

“They Never Give a Reason”

I recently spoke with Mike*, the founder of a very interesting new fintech startup. He seemed like a solid entrepreneur and I loved the market — but there were some problems.

“This is a great market and you know a lot about it. But I need you to get a technical co-founder or it will be really hard for you to build this business. I also need you to get into market and start making some revenue before we go further,” I explained.

I was afraid this candid feedback might upset him. But Mike was delighted.

“Whenever someone passes, they never give a reason. You’re lucky to even hear from them at all!”

This leaves Mike with no idea how to improve. For once, he was getting some actionable feedback.

Investor as Yes Man

So, why do investors give BS feedback and then pass?

In startupland, investors live or die based on their reputation. If your rep is good, the best deals come to you. If it’s not, you’re out in the cold.

If you’re candid with a founder, he might get offended. Then, he tells anyone who will listen that you’re a jerk and best avoided.

If you spew platitudes, maybe the founder never figures out how to improve his business.

But who cares? You’re passing anyway!

Even if a VC gives you a check, you still get Mr. Yes Man. He’s nodding and telling you you’re killing it — even when you know the company is in trouble.

And why wouldn’t he? After all, this isn’t one of his winners. No sense risking a bad reputation.

Founder Focused, Not Founder Friendly

At the peak of the market, investors fell all over themselves trying to be the most “founder friendly.” But we forgot what entrepreneurs actually need.

They don’t need a friend. They already have those.

They need a business partner. And while a partner shouldn’t meddle, he does need to give candid feedback when asked.

That’s why I strive to be “founder focused,” a phrase I first heard from Doug Leone at Sequoia.

Leone is obsessed with helping founders he invests in. But sometimes, that means telling them the difficult truth.

The new product isn’t so great. The company is running out of money.

Leone’s approach might not be warm and fuzzy. But it helped build Google, ServiceNow and DoorDash.

Wrap-Up

To be great at our jobs, we investors have to take the risk of pissing someone off.

I always try to be polite. But I also try to be honest.

Founders pour their lives into their startups. Jobs are on the line.

We owe them nothing less.

What do you think of founder friendliness? Leave a comment and let us know!

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Robots May Make Your Next Car

The Default-International Startup

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Meet the New Founder, Same As the Old Founder

January 19, 2024

Travis Kalanick’s first company got him sued for $250 billion. Time to quit the startup game, right?

Wrong.

Third Time’s a Charm

Travis is known as the brilliant founder of Uber and CloudKitchens. But his first company, a file sharing service called Scour, was a disaster.

Angry about music being pirated on Scour, the recording industry sued Travis’ company for a quarter trillion dollars, forcing it into bankruptcy.

If anyone sued me for a quarter of a trillion, I’d beg for forgiveness and go burrow into some corporate bureaucracy for the rest of my days.

But that’s why I’m not Travis.

His second company was a modest success. Red Swoosh, which helped companies transfer media files, was acquired by Akamai for $18.7 million.

It wasn’t until company number 3 that Travis really hit.

Backing a Founder Again

If you were an investor in Scour, you might put Travis on your “Never invest again” list.

But you would be wrong. With each company, Travis was learning…

A great investor will look not just at the outcomes, but at Travis as a person. He worked incredibly hard, and failure never deterred him.

An entrepreneur like that, you want to back again and again. Had you done so, you’d be sitting on a mountain of Uber shares today.

If At First You Don’t Succeed…

On a summer afternoon last year, I sat at a cafe near Bryant Park. I was enjoying coffee and pastries with Justin*, a great entrepreneur I had backed in 2021.

His company had recently been acquired for a modest sum. We got our money back, but nothing more.

In startupland, this is actually an incredible outcome. Usually, you lose the whole investment!

We chatted about his company, what’s new in tech, and ideas for the future. I left the meeting with a big smile on my face, full of energy.

I know Justin gave his startup everything he had. And for a first company, it actually did pretty well!

He needed some time to rest and vest. But I could hardly wait for Justin’s revenge startup.

My Strategy for Backing Founders Again

Every six months, I shoot Justin a message and see how he’s doing. Some day, he’ll be ready to start his next company.

When he does, I want to be the first to know.

When I back a founder, all I expect is for him to do his best and keep us updated. If he does that, I want to back him over and over.

Throughout Justin’s career, he might start 3 or 4 companies. I plan to be an investor in every one of them.

Sooner or later, with his tenacity and technical skills, he’ll strike gold.

Wrap-Up

Creating a billion dollar company out of nothing is really hard. Not many founders make it on the first try.

When I make an investment, I’m starting what can be a lifelong relationship. Even if Company 1 or 2 fails, I’ll have the inside track for 3 and 4.

When you back great founders over and over, sooner or later you’re going to hit.

Do you like repeat founders? Leave a comment and let us know!

Have a great weekend, everyone!

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Robots May Make Your Next Car

The Default-International Startup

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Robots May Make Your Next Car

January 18, 2024

Your next car could be made by a robot. Humanoid robots from startup Figure will begin working in BMW factories over the next two years in a major step for robotics.

From Reuters:

Robotics startup Figure said it has signed a partnership with BMW Manufacturing to deploy its humanoid robots in the car maker’s facility in the U.S., as more companies turn to human-like robots to take on certain physical tasks.

Figure’s humanoids will be deployed in BMW’s manufacturing facility in Spartanburg, South Carolina, the largest automotive exporter in the U.S., which currently employees 11,000 people. They will be integrated into the manufacturing processes including the body shop, sheet metal and warehouse in the next 12-24 months, after being trained to perform specific tasks.

A General Purpose Robot

This is one of the first implementations of humanoid robots in a factory. For now, its roles will be limited.

But Figure’s robots are designed to look like humans for a reason. It lets them operate easily in an environment designed for us.

Figure’s goal is for its robots to be flexible enough to perform a wide variety of tasks.

Already, it can make coffee. Engineers never told Figure how to do it — they just showed it a bunch of videos of people making coffee.

Figure learned how to do it in just 10 hours.

Learning in a New Way

Robots learning on their own is a gamechanger. YouTube contains a video of someone doing basically anything. If the robot watches millions of YouTube videos, it will have countless capabilities.

BMW can provide videos of human workers cutting, stamping, and bending sheet metal. Soon, Figure will be able to do it too.

Figure isn’t the only company using videos to train a robot. Last summer, Elon Musk released a demo of Tesla’s new autopilot, which learns to drive by watching videos of humans driving.

When Musk did the demo, I wrote about how it could be applied to robotics on this blog. Now, it’s happened — a lot sooner than I ever predicted.

Where Will Humans Fit In?

As Figure masters more and more skills, BMW may need fewer workers. In time, it may not need any.

The UAW has tried to organize Spartanburg before. Seeing the first Figure robots on the line may make workers desperate to unionize and stop them.

But more robots mean the humans’ bargaining power is weaker. Robots have no problem crossing picket lines.

Over time, humans will move to jobs where being human remains a distinct advantage. When we get therapy or go to yoga, we want to connect with another human, not a robot.

Our jobs will be less about moving objects and more about connecting with each other. That’s a much more fulfilling way to spend our days.

Wrap-Up

From Figure to Tesla, we’re seeing a new age in robotics. These robots are general purpose and learn on their own.

Today, they’re making coffee, a little awkwardly. Tomorrow, they’ll be doing things we can hardly imagine.

What do you think of Figure? Leave a comment and let us know!

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The Default-International Startup

January 17, 2024

“Can you tell me your current revenue and burn?”

“We’re at $4,000 MRR and we’re profitable.”

“Uhh, excuse me?”

The founder probably saw my jaw drop on Zoom. I’d never seen such an early stage company make a profit.

A Clever Move

How did they do it? By building their startup in a new way: default-international.

Ivan and his co-founder Masha* had lived in New York City for years. But when they started their company, they went home to Romania.

They built an awesome product and quickly got a few paying customers. In Romania, that money went a long way.

$4,000 in revenue was enough for them to pay their rent and living expenses, along with server costs. They even had a little left over.

I’m not in the habit of investing in Europe. But I had to admit, it was a clever move.

The customers were all in the US. The founders spoke superb English. The company was registered in Delaware, exactly as it should be.

In every respect, this looked like an American company. But they had taken out 90% of the cost structure.

Going Remote

For companies that talk about “changing the world,” startups before 2020 looked pretty conventional. Most were in San Francisco and all their engineers sat in an office together.

They couldn’t hire anyone in Romania. They couldn’t even hire in Nebraska!

So startups were stuck chasing scarce Silicon Valley engineers and paying them six figure salaries. For most companies, that meant burning huge sums of cash.

COVID forced startups to change. We all got on Zoom and learned to collaborate without being in the same room.

Without the need to commute, people left the pricey Bay Area and moved to places like Austin or Nashville. Eventually, people moved around so much you didn’t know where they were.

Finding Lower Costs — and Incredible Talent

When everyone was just a little box on Zoom, you couldn’t tell if they were in Berkeley or Bangalore. And it didn’t really matter.

Then in 2022, markets ground to a halt and startups had to reduce costs. Most startups only have 1 line item that really matters: salaries.

An engineer in India might cost $2,000 a month versus $10,000 in the US. When money is tight, that deal is too good to pass up.

Soon, I began to see seed stage companies with teams of 15 people that only cost $50,000 a month — total. New startups like Micro1, a company I invested in last year, made it easier to hire internationally than ever before.

Hiring internationally didn’t just lower costs. Startups also gained access to incredibly talented people.

Turns out not every great engineer lives in San Francisco.

A New Generation of Startups

Most startups I see today have at least some of their people overseas.

For some companies, it’s just a few engineers. For others, it’s the entire team.

These companies were founded in a brutal downmarket. They’ve hired internationally since day 1.

They’re lean, and they’re hungry. And they’re going to make some incredible investments.

Are you seeing more startups with teams overseas? Leave a comment and let us know!

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When Will a Robot Make My T-Shirt?

January 16, 2024

Elon Musk’s new Optimus robot can fold t-shirts. How long until it’s making them?

Musk released a video of Tesla’s new Optimus robot folding a t-shirt yesterday on X:

Optimus folds a shirt pic.twitter.com/3F5o3jVLq1
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 15, 2024

The short video shows the robot slowly but surely turning a t-shirt into a neat little package. Robots usually struggle with fine motor tasks like this, but Optimus was up to the challenge.

Optimus’ Next Stop: The Factory Floor?

In the shower this morning, I got to thinking — if Optimus can manipulate fabric, why can’t it make a shirt too?

Musk admits that Optimus has some limitations. It was able to fold the shirt because it was working with just one at a time, and the table was at a fixed height.

Those limitations wouldn’t be a problem in a factory setting. Today, humans sew one shirt at a time at identical tables that look quite similar to the one Optimus is using.

Optimus might not be able to work a sewing machine yet. But yesterday, it couldn’t fold a shirt.

Competing With Bangladesh

If you want to make a t-shirt, there are few places cheaper than Bangladesh.

The minimum wage for garment workers is around $90 a month. Working hours are long, around 72 hours a week. This equates to an hourly wage of around 29 cents.

At that same rate, but operating 24/7, Optimus would save manufacturers about $2500 a year in labor costs.

Factories usually want to see a 15% yearly return on new equipment. So, an Optimus robot would have to cost no more than around $17,000 to make sense as a replacement for a Bangladeshi garment worker.

That’s pretty darn cheap — assuming Optimus is no faster or more accurate than a human.

Today, Optimus is slower and less accurate than a human being. I can fold a shirt more neatly than that, and a heck of a lot faster.

But over time, Optimus may greatly exceed human capabilities.

At double the productivity of a human, Optimus might make sense. At ten times the productivity, it’s a slam dunk.

Getting on the Development Ladder

Textile production is one of the simpler forms of manufacturing. For developing countries, it’s a first step toward industrialization.

What happens when poor countries can’t even get on the development ladder? No matter how low their wages, the right robot can undercut them.

The future could be factories full of robots in America and Western Europe, near big sources of demand. That would mean even deeper poverty for countries like Bangladesh.

Wrap-Up

Today, people are laughing at Optimus. I don’t think they’ll be laughing long.

Robots are developing machine vision and fine motor skills. Every day, an android performs a task we thought they could never do.

I don’t know what the future holds for Optimus. But something tells me we’ll be seeing a lot more of them, soon.

What do you think of the Optimus demo? Leave a comment and let us know!

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In Search of the Perfect Jersey Slice

January 12, 2024

We gazed on the glass case, transfixed by pepperoni and heaps of ricotta. Would this be the perfect counter slice?

Fancy pizzerias are great. Wood fired ovens, shaved truffle, love all that.

But sometimes, you need a Jersey classic. You need a counter slice.

I’ve been going past Quality Pizza in Hoboken, NJ for a while now. Every time, I was tempted by the ample slices piled high with cheese, meats, and vibrant veg.

Last Friday, I finally had a chance to visit…

My friend Tim* and I had a problem: of all these delectable slices, which should we try?

I settled on a white grandma pie and a ricotta and spinach slice. Tim went deep: pepperoni grandma pie, Italian sausage pie, and a plain slice just for kicks.

We found a table in the back, far from the cold blasts of air coming through the door on this January night. Soon, the moment arrived.

In life, there may be no more exciting moment than when someone tells you, “Your pizza is ready!”

We cradled our slices gently, like a lover, and brought them home to our table. Oops, forgot the red pepper flakes…better grab those.

Okay, we’re ready. Let’s dig in! I started with the grandma pie — I’ve always had a soft spot for these.

My first bite cut through gooey mozzarella into a layer of garlic and an airy crust. There’s something about a white pie that goes so well with garlic.

Sometimes, the crust on a grandma slice can be a little too dense. But this one was puffy, crunchy, perfect.

On to my ricotta and spinach…

The spinach was beautifully cooked, softened but still moist. Big dollops of unctuous ricotta almost made me groan. Ahhh…

Oh good, Tim’s still here. Got a little absorbed in that slice…

Tim made short work of his pepperoni. On to salsicc…

A three slice man! I knew there was something I liked about this fella.

Stuffed and grinning, we headed out…wait…what does that sign say?

A free slice for a Google review**? Don’t mind if I do!

I wrote a pithy 5 star critique and beamed as they served up a beautiful plain slice. Dinner for tomorrow!

What a clever way to make sure happy customers let others know!

Quality Pizza is on Washington Street in the heart of Hoboken. It’s open 7 days a week from noon.

Stop in for a classic Jersey slice!

What’s your favorite slice spot? Leave a comment and let us know!

There will be no blog on Monday for the holiday. I’ll see you on Tuesday.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

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