Tremendous

An angel investor's take on life and business

  • Where Did All the Angel Investors Go?

    I started investing in startups in April of 2021, like a lot of other angels. But looking around 3 years later, many of them seem to be gone.

    I found an interesting data set from Jason Saltzman at Live Data Technologies. It shows a huge slowdown in new angels.

    The data shows how many new people put “Angel Investor” on their LinkedIn profile in a given month.

    Fewer angels are coming into the market. And my guess is that if fewer people are becoming angels, many existing angels have stopped investing.

    Both stem from the same cause: people are scared.

    “If They Won’t Invest In This…”

    I’m definitely seeing a pullback among angels in the deals I do.

    I did a deal last summer in an amazing startup with a couple million in revenue growing fast. The valuation was around $15 million.

    You could have never done this deal in 2021. It might have been priced at $100 million or even $200 million — if you could get an allocation at all.

    But in 2023, the allocation for angels filled only about halfway!

    It didn’t make sense to me. If you don’t want to invest in this, what would you invest in?

    The only explanation I can think of: angels are exiting the market.

    Many syndicates I’ve spoken to have slowed their dealmaking considerably. They know that the appetite just isn’t the same as in 2021.

    Talking to some fellow angels, I’ve heard several say they’re pulling out. On the other hand, a brave soul jumps in every now and then.

    How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Down Market

    People got scared in 2022. Heck, I got scared!

    As markets crumbled around us, I wondered, what did I get myself into? Is this a viable business? Should I be doing it?

    Then I thought, “Well, other people have succeeded investing in startups. Why not me?”

    So I kept at it.

    It turns out, this down market is amazing!

    Companies are building faster than ever before using AI. Many outsource a lot of their staff, saving on costs and getting access to great talent.

    I see more and more startups becoming profitable even at the early stages. And today, you can invest in these great companies at a fraction of 2021 prices.

    The business has gotten a lot better for angels, not worse! And even as the opportunities look better than ever, most of your competition is smoked.

    It’s a good time to be in startupland.

    Wrap-Up

    So, when do angels come back? Whenever there are some big, juicy exits.

    Exits get people excited about investing again. Once Stripe goes public, we’ll all be calculating how much we would’ve made if only we’d invested.

    Exits also give investors and early employees liquid cash. They can use that money to back more startups.

    “And on and on it goes, this thing of ours.” – Paulie Gualtieri

    What are you seeing in early stage tech? Leave a comment and let us know!

    If you enjoyed this post, subscribe for more like this!

    More on tech:

    New Data Shows NYC May Be the Startup Capital

    GitLab’s YC Demo Day Pitch

    Watch Brian Armstrong Practice for YC Demo Day in 2012

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Are We In Another Real Estate Bubble?

    I spent most of last week in Elizabethtown, Kentucky visiting my grandma. It’s a cute little town full of flowering trees — but you wouldn’t believe what it costs to live there!

    Killing some time in the Airbnb one night, I decided to pop onto Zillow. “These numbers can’t be right,” I thought.

    Basic houses are often $300,000 or more. Prices for many of the houses seemed to have gone up by 50-100% since COVID.

    E-town, as the locals call it, is lovely and has a charming downtown. But it’s also quite remote — the nearest city, Louisville, is 45 miles away.

    It’s Not Just E-Town

    There are some local factors affecting prices in the area — Ford is planning to build a big new battery plant nearby. But the giant run-up in real estate prices goes way beyond E-town.

    The median house price is now 5.8x the median household income. Even during the peak of the 2000’s real estate bubble, that ratio peaked at 5.1.

    What’s behind this?

    The economy is strong and unemployment is low. COVID-era policies expanded the money supply significantly, causing inflation. What’s more, America hasn’t built enough housing ever since the 2008 financial crisis.

    Housing Prices Aren’t Adjusting to Higher Rates

    Higher rates usually make prices fall. But so far, that hasn’t happened.

    Constrained supply is a major reason why those prices haven’t fallen. We’re building too few houses, and owners of existing homes don’t want to sell.

    After all, who wants to exchange a 3% mortgage rate for 7% on a new house!

    “If It Can’t Go On Forever, It Will Stop”

    People just can’t pay today’s housing prices.

    A mere 16% of homes are affordable for the typical family. Homelessness is rapidly increasing.

    In time, I expect to see house prices fall.

    Families will reach the limit of what they can pay, if they haven’t already. More supply will be built.

    As economist Herb Stein once said “if it can’t go on forever, it will stop.”

    Wrap-Up

    Today seems like the worst time in many years to buy a house. Both interest rates and prices are sky high.

    I expect that scary price/income ratio to revert to the mean sooner or later. In the mean time, the best solution for America is to pop up houses as fast as we can!

    What are you seeing in the real estate market? Leave a comment and let us know.

    If you enjoyed this post, subscribe for more like this!

    More on housing:

    Why Manufactured Housing Won’t Fix High Housing Costs

    YIMBY Is Working Wonders in New Zealand

    Your Next House Will Be Built By Robots

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • As Cuba Starves, Elites Funnel Money Out

    On Monday, February 5th, a young Cuban woman landed at Tampa International Airport. She brought with her something rather unusual: $100,000 in cash.

    Mirtza Ocana, 38, was no tourist. Under questioning, she admitted to smuggling cash from Cuba to the United States several times a month. Flight records show 45 trips between Cuba and Tampa in less than a year.

    From Ideologues to Gangsters

    Where was all this money coming from?

    We can’t know for sure, but the likeliest source is the Communist regime itself. Government officials in Cuba are squeezing the population for every cent they can through illegal fuel sales, crooked public works contracts, and a lot more.

    From Discourse magazine:

    Following the outbreak of anti-regime protests in July 2021, the government allowed the establishment of private “micro, small, and medium enterprises,” theoretically as a way to open up the economy to market forces. But most if not all of the 9,000 private enterprises operating in Cuba today are owned by powerful regime figures who then funnel public works contracts to them.

    A Nation in Crisis

    This torrent of dirty money is leaving Cuba just as the nation faces its worst crisis since the revolution.

    The Cuban government recently ask the UN for food aid for the first time since the revolution. Even the “Special Period” after the fall of the Soviet Union wasn’t as bad as this.

    Brave Cubans have begun to protest food shortages and endless blackouts.

    Starving Their Own Country

    Cuba has very little foreign currency available. Lack of hard currency is causing shortages of food and fuel.

    The Ocana case shows us where that foreign currency is probably going: money laundering operations by the Communist bosses.

    What I don’t understand is how the Cuban leaders can starve their own fellow Cubans like this.

    It just doesn’t make sense to me. Don’t they love their country?

    I guess not.

    Wrap-Up

    For the Cuban people, the best solution seems to be emigration.

    I hope the US welcomes them with open arms. Cuban people have worked hard to contribute to this country, and we could use a lot more of them!

    What do you think the future holds for Cuba? Leave a comment and let us know!

    This will be the only post for this week. I’m going to Kentucky to visit my grandma!

    See you on Monday, April 15!

    Subscribe below for more like this!

    More on world events:

    Is a Revolution Brewing in Cuba?

    China’s Jobless, Childless Youth

    China’s Decline Has Begun

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

    Photo: “More Cuba, Dec 2011 – 187” by Ed Yourdon is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 2.0.

  • The Quake

    “Is that construction? What the heck are they doing?” I thought. Then I realized what it was: an earthquake.

    The NYC area just experienced a medium-sized earthquake. It was a 4.7 magnitude, according to the US Geological Survey.

    An Unusual Type of Earthquake

    There’s something very unusual about this quake. It occurred at a depth of just 5 kilometers, which is extremely shallow.

    Earthquakes that occur at shallow depths are much more damaging. From Phys.org:

    Shallow quakes generally tend to be more damaging than deeper quakes. Seismic waves from deep quakes have to travel farther to the surface, losing energy along the way.

    My entire high rise apartment building shook like crazy for probably 15 seconds. But it felt like forever.

    And I’m not going to lie, I was absolutely terrified. Right now, things are okay, thank God.

    My First Quake

    The only other time I experienced an earthquake, I was in Tokyo in 2020. It was around 5am, and I was sound asleep.

    Suddenly, a weird shaking woke me up. My sleepy brain thought someone was shaking my bed as a prank.

    “Stop it, it’s not funny,” I thought. Then I realized: there’s no one else here.

    At that moment, my brain went from foggy to crystal clear.

    “I know what that is.”

    The shaking felt like a metronome — a perfect back and forth. It lasted maybe 10 seconds, but it was very noticeable.

    When it stopped, I grabbed my phone and hit Google. Quickly, I saw a result from the Japanese Meteorological Agency.

    “Magnitude 5.2 Ibaraki prefecture.”

    Okay, I wasn’t imagining things.

    Why Did Today’s Quake Feel So Strong?

    Today’s quake felt much stronger than the Japanese one I experienced in 2020.

    Ibaraki Prefecture is around 60 miles from Tokyo. Today’s quake occurred near Lebanon, NJ, around 50 miles from Hudson County, NJ where I sit.

    The distance is similar, but the Japanese scale differs significantly from ours.

    A smaller number on the Japanese scale equates to a much higher one on our scale. Accounting for that, the Japanese quake was probably about 5 times stronger than today’s.

    However, the Japanese quake was much deeper, 46 km vs 5 km for today’s quake in New Jersey. That could explain why today’s earthquake felt much stronger to me than the Japanese one did.

    Staying Safe

    In any case, I’m grateful to be safe today! It really puts our little daily annoyances in perspective.

    Here’s some info from the US Geological Survey on what we can do to stay safe in future earthquakes:

    Wrap-Up

    It’s funny…we humans think we’re so powerful. But we’re not.

    We’re little ants on the surface of this giant ball we barely understand. In the end, all we can do is prepare and hope for the best.

    Did you feel the quake today? Leave a comment and let us know!

    Have a safe weekend everyone!

    More from the blog:

    Why Manufactured Housing Won’t Fix High Housing Costs

    YIMBY Is Working Wonders in New Zealand

    From AI to Satellites, US Dominates All Competition

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Why Manufactured Housing Won’t Fix High Housing Costs

    Last night, I scrolled through Amazon, entranced. You can buy a whole house for only $30,000!

    Some were as cheap as $15,000. But being Mr. Fancypants, I had my eyes on one for $72,000.

    I better hurry — there’s only 10 left in stock! 🙂

    But as exciting as manufactured housing is, it won’t fix the high cost of housing. Here’s why…

    Palo Alto and Oshkosh

    Where is housing really expensive? In NYC, the Bay Area, and a few other spots.

    Even the small towns aren’t as cheap as they used to be. But compared to paying $1.6 million for a glorified garage in Palo Alto, they look pretty reasonable.

    The thing is, that house in Palo Alto is probably built pretty much the same way as a house in Oshkosh, Wisconsin where I grew up. Light frame wood is the rule for single family houses most anywhere in America.

    And yet, prices in Oshkosh are much lower. Check out this place, twice the size for $270k:

    Why Is Palo Alto So Expensive?

    How the heck do you explain this?

    Everyone wants to live in Palo Alto and not that many people want to live in Oshkosh. And yet…their populations are almost identical.

    There’s a lot of pent up demand for Palo Alto. So why doesn’t it grow?

    Because zoning makes building there extremely difficult.

    Let’s put some numbers on this. I found some great data from the American Enterprise Institute (AEI)…

    In Palo Alto’s 94301 zip code, the cost of land accounts for 84% of a home’s value. One acre in this wealthy town goes for a staggering $18 million — if you can even find one.

    The AEI data set only includes larger metros, so Oshkosh is left out. But let’s use Cedarburg, WI, a Milwaukee suburb where a friend of mine lives.

    In Cedarburg’s zip code (53012), land makes up only 33% of the cost of a house. Lots are more than I thought — $600,000 an acre. But that’s still about 97% cheaper than Palo Alto.

    And since Oshkosh is much more remote than Cedarburg, the prices are even lower.

    Zoning Is the Key

    So, land is why Palo Alto costs so much. Now, what exactly has made that land so expensive?

    In major coastal cities, zoning pretty much determines a lot’s value.

    If it’s zoned to build housing, especially a big multifamily, it’s worth a fortune. If not, it’s worth peanuts.

    In fact, Harvard economist Edward Glaeser found that in nearby San Francisco, over 95% of a lot’s value comes from zoning.

    Prefabs Won’t Move the Needle On the Coasts

    Even if we took construction costs to zero, home prices in Palo Alto would only fall 16%.

    What’s more, manufactured housing may not be that much cheaper anyway.

    A huge percentage of the cost of construction comes from raw materials like lumber, drywall and steel. Manufacturers face those same costs.

    Give Me Some Hope, Francis!

    I know, depressing blog right?

    Manufactured housing may not make housing cheaper in the major metro areas. But there are signs that zoning, that critical component, could be changing.

    NYC Mayor Eric Adams has proposed a new law to let developers build larger and taller. It’s has too many affordable housing requirements for my taste, but it’s something.

    Palo Alto too is taking action, spurred on by state mandates.

    Wrap-Up

    I love the idea of manufactured homes. And in the heartland, it could make a real difference.

    But here in Coastal Bizarroland where everything costs a fortune, prefab houses just won’t move the needle.

    The change we need isn’t technological. It’s political.

    What do you think of housing costs? Leave a comment and let us know!

    If you enjoyed this post, subscribe for more like this!

    More from the blog:

    YIMBY Is Working Wonders in New Zealand

    From AI to Satellites, US Dominates All Competition

    China’s Jobless, Childless Youth

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • YIMBY Is Working Wonders in New Zealand

    As I stroll down the waterfront in my beloved Hudson County, NJ, I see apartments sprouting up like mushrooms. It makes me proud. But it’s nothing compared to New Zealand.

    YIMBY Is Kiwi

    New Zealand just might be the world capital of YIMBY.

    This beautiful nation has spent the last decade making building homes way easier. Auckland, the largest city, has led the charge.

    From the excellent Apricitas Economics blog:

    Auckland, a city of only 1.7M, permitted 15k units last year—while preliminary data shows the 5 boroughs of New York City (population: 8.3M) permitted a meager 9.2k units by comparison. In total, New Zealand permitted 9.7 new housing units per 1000 residents in 2022, a 45-year-high that was nearly double the rates seen in the US.

    Auckland is building 1 new unit for roughly every 100 residents. In NYC, they’re building approximately 1 per 1,000.

    Auckland has 10X-ed NYC!

    So, Did YIMBY Actually Make Housing Cheaper?

    YIMBY is supposed to make housing more affordable. Is it working?

    Absolutely!

    Rents are growing much more slowly in Auckland today than before the reforms.

    …after adjusting for inflation rents in Auckland have been essentially flat since the 2016 AUP—and [research by University of Auckland professors] Greenaway-McGrevy estimates that 2-bedroom apartment rents are roughly 26-33% lower than they would be in the absence of upzonings. That easing of rent pressures was felt most at the lower end of the price distribution—real rents of Auckland’s cheaper apartments fell faster than the real rents of its median apartment.

    Building more housing worked. It kept rents down, especially for the poor.

    This policy is a resounding success.

    Becoming Auckland

    Here in Hudson County, NJ, we’re building way more than New York City. Our new housing permits are more than 2X the NYC level.

    But that still leaves us 5X below Auckland!

    What if we built like Auckland does? That’s more good construction jobs and more affordable homes, especially for the poorest.

    Check out these effects in Auckland:

    Construction activity in Auckland alone has gone from 1.56% of nationwide GDP in 2012 to 2.67% in 2021, and Auckland’s per-capita GDP has gone from being 6% above the national average in 2012 to 13.8% above it in 2022.

    If we build more, we all get way richer. Housing gets cheaper too.

    And the poor benefit the most.

    Wrap-Up

    If we actually care about poor people, we have to stop the NIMBY craziness. Every home we don’t build pushes people closer and closer to being homeless.

    I hope to see wonderful New Jersey lead on this. And if New York wants to join, let ‘em!

    Jersey guys are always up for a good fight. 🙂

    Should we build more or not? Leave a comment and let me know what you think!

    If you enjoyed this post, subscribe for more like this!

    More on world affairs:

    Is a Revolution Brewing in Cuba?

    From AI to Satellites, US Dominates All Competition

    China’s Jobless, Childless Youth

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • New Data Shows NYC May Be the Startup Capital

    My heart just about jumped out of my chest when I saw this data. NYC now has more founders building than SF!

    Is It Real?

    This new data comes from Live Data Technologies. Their data is comprehensive, covering over 7,500 founders.

    It’s hard to know how meaningful this information is.

    How did Live Data get it? What do they consider a founder?

    If they’re talking about just tech company founders, then maybe NYC really is the new startup capital.

    But perhaps “founder” means founder of a restaurant or gym too. In that case, we couldn’t proclaim NYC’s victory yet.

    I asked Jason Saltzman of Live Data Technologies about it just now — I hope to hear back soon. 🙂

    What Founders Are Telling Me

    As much as I wanna rep NYC and NJ, this data doesn’t quite square with what I see anecdotally.

    The AI enthusiasm in SF is at a fever pitch. NYC is producing AI companies too, but it feels like a lot fewer.

    Some of this may be because SF is a tech monoculture, but NYC is not.

    There are great founders here, but they’re mixed up with bankers and actors and all sorts of people. So, we don’t notice them as much.

    The Immigration Factor

    There’s one group that seems especially set on SF: founders from abroad.

    Most have no connections to any US city. So when they come, they come to the technology industry’s historic home: the San Francisco Bay Area.

    It makes sense. And it’s a powerful force.

    Immigrants are far more likely to found a technology company than native born people like me.

    Can NYC Win?

    NYC is coming from behind here, no doubt. But although I hear a lot of people excited about SF, I am seeing some interesting things here too…

    When This Week in Startups does its monthly Founder Fridays meetups across the world, each one takes a picture. Afterward, each city posts it to Twitter.

    The NYC crowd always seems to be the largest. I was shocked after the first one in February — our crowd dwarfed SF, Palo Alto, or anywhere else.

    I think New York and my beloved Hudson County, NJ are a fantastic place to build a startup.

    The talent pool is deep. Every tech company that matters has a New York office.

    The investors are here as well. Many major firms have opened up shop here, including Sequoia and Andreessen.

    Also, it’s much safer here than in San Francisco. I don’t see why someone should have to sacrifice their personal safety to build a company.

    Wrap-Up

    As much as I want to believe them, I’m a bit skeptical of these numbers. But what I can tell you is tons of great founders are building in NYC.

    I love investing in them. I also love investing across our wonderful country.

    Here’s to these 7,500 founders — best of luck!

    Do you think NYC can beat SF? Leave a comment and let us know!

    If you enjoyed this post, subscribe for more like this!

    More on tech:

    I Was On This Week In Startups!

    GitLab’s YC Demo Day Pitch

    Watch Brian Armstrong Practice for YC Demo Day in 2012

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Onieals: Where They’re Gonna Know My Name

    Remember the bar in Cheers, “where everybody knows your name”? Onieals feels like that. They don’t know my name yet— but after Saturday’s dinner, they’re gonna learn it!

    My friend Tim and I continued our Jersey Food Tour this weekend. And although we dearly love Karma’s curries or Grimaldi’s pizza, we decided to switch it up.

    So I found myself relaxing at a white clothed table al fresco. Across the street: lovely Church Square Park.

    Tim slid in across. “What’s new,” I asked?

    “Not much since we had dinner last night,” he quipped. Touche, Tim.

    What to order…

    Onieals has a little of everything. Burgers, non-burger sandwiches, even shepherd’s pie and Italian food!

    I love a good burger, but I’m watching my meat intake. So I went with the crab cake sandwich.

    Is that healthy? Let’s just pretend it is.

    “Rajin’ cajun burger, medium.” Tim had no such pretensions.

    We both made sure to request mayo with the fries. Otherwise, why be here, right?

    We caught up on each other’s lives in the last 24 hours. Gym, waterfront, housework.

    When you’re good friends with someone, that’s half the fun. You don’t just report the big events. You get to report all the little stuff.

    Somehow, that dignifies everyday life.

    Ooh food!

    Before me sat a beautiful crab cake sandwich on a demi baguette. The fries were golden.

    I picked it up, worried I’d destroy its perfectness. But it survived.

    And I took a bite.

    “This bread is so good!”

    The demi baguette this sandwich is served on is absolute primo bread. That’s how you know a good restaurant — bread is never an afterthought.

    The crab was slightly spicy. The remoulade, which is made of mustard, mayo and a few other goodies, lent a nice creaminess to the sammy.

    “I’d put this burger up against Moran’s,” Tim said. That’s high praise — Moran’s has one of the best burgers I’ve ever eaten.

    Fry time. I dunked one of the golden brown fellers into the mayo.

    “These fries are amazing, so crispy” I explained, mouth probably still full of potato. But who’s counting?

    We kept our poor waiter busy with request after request. But he was so efficient that anything we wanted seemed like it was on a conveyor belt, straight to us.

    This was despite the fact that we were the only people outside! When you eat so well, and the service is so good, you want to come back.

    The thing with Onieals is it’s small, and it gets busy. So, they don’t take reservations.

    I imagine an empty table for someone who didn’t show is just too costly for this little restaurant.

    But, you can call ahead and get on the list any time you like. Or just show up!

    Waits are usually 15 minutes or less. And in the mean time, the bar is dark and convivial.

    And if Hoboken is a tunnel too far, there’s also a location in Soho! Try Onieals for great food in a warm, happy setting.

    What are your favorite restaurants? Leave a comment and let us know!

    If you enjoyed this post, subscribe for more like this!

    More on food:

    The Fragrant Curries of Karma Kafe

    Miznon: The Professors of Pita

    The Best Bakery in NYC (It’s Not Levain)

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • I Was On This Week In Startups!

    “Cynicism is the coward’s way out.”

    Jason Calacanis

    Last week, I thought, “Wouldn’t it be awesome to be on This Week in Startups some day? Maybe many years from now.”

    A couple days later, it happened!

    Jamming with JCal

    Host and angel investor Jason Calacanis was doing a Q&A session with some rabid fans. I asked Jason something I’ve been struggling with for a while.

    What’s the right balance between skepticism and enthusiasm when you look at a startup?

    Jason’s answer surprised me.

    “It’s really easy to be cynical. And what you wanna focus on is not all the things that could go wrong, it’s what could go right.”

    JCal

    I expected him to say you need X amount of enthusiasm and Y amount of skepticism. But instead, he basically said the skepticism takes care of itself.

    It’s the enthusiasm that’s harder — and more important!

    Looking back on my meetings with founders, Jason’s comments make a lot of sense. Pick any startup, and you could find 100 problems with it.

    But the question is, if everything goes right, is it another Uber? Another Google?

    If so, I want to make that bet.

    “The Vision Thing”

    I also love what Jason said about understanding the founder’s vision.

    “One of the things we’ve added to our script…when I’m training my young associates and researchers how to interact with founders is just to say at the end of the conversation, ‘Hey, can I repeat your vision back to you to make sure I understand your vision.’”

    JCal

    I’ve already started using that in my meetings. I’ve forgotten a time or too, but I’m going to work on this!

    Figuring out the founder’s vision is a great way to show respect. And if I do it right, I will truly understand the opportunity before me.

    It would be a darn shame to miss Uber because I don’t understand what Travis is doing.

    Building a Better Investment Process

    Jason and I also talked about how to build a better process for making investments.

    “In any discipline you get into, I think you eventually will start to look at systems and processes and really try to optimize those.”

    JCal

    We can’t control what happens after we make an investment. But we can control our process for finding startups and making those bets. What’s more, we can adapt the process to play to our strengths.

    Jason is more extroverted than just about anyone. He loves doing as many meetings and podcasts as he can.

    I like meeting founders too, but I’m not quite as much of a people person as Jason. I mean, who is? 🙂

    But when I’m reading a deal memo, I’m really in my element.

    It occurs to me that the company pages at YC are essentially deal memos. I can just read tons of them and contact the startups that interest me most. That’d be one great way to play to my strengths.

    Wrap-Up

    Since we had this conversation on Tuesday, Jason’s words have been on my mind.

    I’ve tried to look at these little companies and imagine them as giants many years from now. And here I am on day one, meeting them when they’re still raw and full of potential.

    Pretty great job, isn’t it? 😊

    What do you think of our little Q&A session? Leave a comment and let me know!

    If you enjoyed this post, subscribe for more like this!

    More on tech:

    Watch Brian Armstrong Practice for YC Demo Day in 2012

    GitLab’s YC Demo Day Pitch

    The Airbnb Deck

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    Fundrise

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  • Watch Brian Armstrong Practice for YC Demo Day in 2012

    Coinbase is one of the world’s largest crypto exchanges. Its market cap is $64 billion. But in the summer of 2012, founder Brian Armstrong was in a dimly lit Silicon Valley office, practicing his pitch.

    Let’s dig in!

    What the Heck Is Bitcoin?

    Brian does a wonderful job of explaining what bitcoin is. Don’t forget that in 2012, it was only 3 years old.

    Today, everyone knows about bitcoin. But still, startups have to pitch investors unfamiliar with their market.

    I recently met with an awesome startup working on ACATS processing. This is the process by which you move a brokerage account from one firm to another.

    Before our meeting, I had Claude teach me a little about ACATS processing. But I sure as heck didn’t know anything before that!

    Unless the investor has a background in your industry, explain everything.

    How’s It Going?

    Now that we know what bitcoin is, Brian explains why users need Coinbase.

    That existing wallet software he shows is uglier than sin. Who wouldn’t prefer something more modern?

    And sure enough, customers are flocking to Brian’s new platform. The growth in sign-ups is staggering.

    In just 70 seconds, Brian establishes the two most important things: what he does, and how it’s going.

    Clearly, this is not the first time he’s practiced.

    PG Shows Why He’s PG

    A voice pipes up from the audience. It’s Paul Graham!

    His comments are dead-on. He tells Brian to emphasize that his sign-ups are growing 20% “a day”.

    That’s such a crucial point!

    If you’re mind is wandering or you need to go to the bathroom, it would be easy to assume that chart shows month over month growth. But it’s actually daily.

    That’s a colossal difference. And it’s really strong evidence that Brian is on to something.

    Paul also asks Brian how he makes money. That would have been my biggest question.

    Turns out, Brian didn’t have a revenue model. So, it makes sense that he left that out.

    I’d like to see him try some sort of revenue model, even if he changes it later. But we have to remember, this was a very early stage company.

    Would I Have Seen It?

    Would I have seen what Coinbase could be? Would I have even met Brian?

    I’d love to tell you I would’ve seen it then. But I’m not so sure I would’ve.

    There were nearly 100 startups in Brian’s batch. Brian didn’t show us any revenue.

    I doubt I would’ve made contacting Brian a priority. But, if he contacted me, those sign-ups would be reason enough to take the meeting.

    This could be a weakness in my game.

    I’m very focused on revenue. And yes, it’s really important. But, that could lead me to miss meeting the great founders at the earliest stages.

    Hmm…

    Wrap-Up

    Even in a practice session, Brian shows us two key things: strong traction and a rapidly growing market.

    After Demo Day, my guess is his calendar was packed with investor meetings.

    What do you think of Brian’s pitch? Leave a comment and let us know!

    If you enjoyed this post, subscribe for more like this!

    More on tech:

    GitLab’s YC Demo Day Pitch

    The Airbnb Deck

    Apollo’s YC Demo Day Pitch

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order.