Tremendous

An angel investor's take on life and business

  • Vance at the All-In Summit

    “Increasingly, Republicans are the party of working and middle class people.”

    That’s J.D. Vance at the All-In Summit this week. Vance laid out a compelling vision of less regulation and greater prosperity.

    Cutting Regulations to Benefit Average Americans

    “…we’ve massively overregulated the real world.”

    Vance points out that America innovates in software, but almost nowhere else.

    That innovation benefits places like New York and SF. But it doesn’t do much for his constituents in Ohio, or for most Americans.

    Vance traces that lack of innovation in the real world to regulation.

    Software is new, so regulation is minimal. But in the older industries where most Americans make their living, regulation is crippling.

    The way regulation leaves Silicon Valley alone and cripples Middle America is a point I’ve never heard anyone else make. It’s quite insightful.

    Imagine if we could get construction, manufacturing and medicine to move at the speed of a Silicon Valley tech startup. Our economy would grow like never before.

    Becoming a Trump Supporter

    J.D. Vance was once a “Never Trump” guy. Now he’s Trump’s running mate.

    What’s changed?

    Over time, Vance realized that most of what the media says about Trump is untrue. Meanwhile, America performed better under Trump that it has in decades. We were at peace and the economy was strong.

    I can definitely relate to Vance’s evolution. I campaigned for Hillary in 2016 and voted for Biden in 2020.

    This year, I’m supporting Trump.

    The Biden-Harris administration’s record is one of failure, inflation and war. Meanwhile, the more I listen to Trump, the more I realize the media has mischaracterized him.

    I imagine the views of many other Americans are shifting as well.

    Restoring Order on the Border

    Vance wants to seal the border. He also wants to deport illegals who are already here, starting with violent criminals.

    That’s hard to argue with. If we don’t have law and order, what do we have?

    Vance and Trump are tough on illegal immigration. But they’re for high skilled immigrants coming here legally. As a former VC, Vance understands the importance of getting the smartest people here now.

    This is the right policy for America. We need basic law and order, and we also need talent.

    Where I Disagree with Vance

    Host Jason Calacanis repeatedly asked Vance if he would’ve certified the electors in 2021, as Pence did. Vance’s answer was oblique — he said he would’ve asked the states to submit alternative slates of electors.

    In essence, this means that Vance would not have certified the election. I disagree with Vance here.

    We don’t have good evidence that the 2020 election was fraudulent. So, Pence was right to certify the results.

    I want to see Trump win fair and square. Let’s can the tricky electoral tactics.

    Wrap-Up

    Vance did a good job of answering difficult questions clearly. He’s obviously an intelligent man, and he overcame very long odds to be sitting on that stage.

    When Americans look at Vance, they’ll see their dreams: a poor kid who made it.

    Vance also has a wonderful vision for the nation. Lower regulations, higher growth, and a secure border is a plan I can get behind.

    What did you think of Vance’s talk?

    More on politics:

    Kamala’s Extreme Agenda

    How Kamala’s Unrealized Gains Tax Will Destroy the Economy

    114 Days

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Elon at the All-In Summit

    “The price of freedom of speech isn’t cheap, is it?”
    “I think it’s like $44 billion, something like that.”

    That’s Elon yesterday at the All-In Summit.

    In a live appearance, Elon and the besties dug into the future of robotics, how Elon wants to transform government, and more.

    A Robot In Every Home

    “I think the number of robots will vastly exceed the number of humans.”

    To me, the most fascinating part of Elon’s talk was when he dug into robotics. Elon plans to offer the Optimus android for $10-20,000 within the next 5-6 years.

    An affordable android would truly transform the world.

    In Elon’s vision, every human would have one. Many more would work in factories and on Mars.

    With AI driving its brain, the robot would be able to do anything we can do. The economy could grow infinitely since the supply of labor would be infinite.

    Let’s assume we get our in-home robot. We could have it doing housework during the day then working the night shift at a factory. After all, it never gets tired!

    Its factory wages could pay for the robot lease. Voila, free robot!

    I dearly hope this happens in my lifetime.

    D.O.G.E.

    I love the Elon image in the leather jacket and gold chain at his new Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E.). But D.O.G.E. isn’t just a meme — Elon could use this agency to transform government.

    “If Trump wins…we do have an opportunity to do kind of a once in a lifetime deregulation and reduction in the size of government.”

    Elon might be the only person better than Trump at firing people. He took out 75% of Twitter and the site actually got better!

    Overregulation is one of the most critical problems of our time. It’s the reason we can’t even build housing, much less high speed rail.

    The accumulation of regulations over time mean that eventually, everything becomes illegal. We cannot remain #1 in the world that way.

    Getting rid of regulations will let the economy rip. And once the regs are gone, we won’t need the bureaucrats that used to enforce them.

    Elon is the best man in America for this job. I just hope he gets it.

    The Government Spending Crisis

    “The government is the DMV at scale…how much do you want to scale it?”

    Scale it we have. The federal government spent $6.13 trillion last year.

    Much of that spending is funded by borrowing at increasing interest rates. We’re adding a trillion dollars to the debt every 90 days.

    There’s some line where when we exceed it, we spark a financial crisis. That crisis will make 2008 look like a tea party.

    We don’t know where that line is. And we darned sure don’t want to find out.

    Cutting spending under a Trump administration would help us edge away from the brink. Less government spending will also allow that money to go into the private sector, which is far more efficient.

    Wrap-Up

    I loved Elon’s talk at the Summit. He presents an ambitious vision for technology and for America.

    I look forward to seeing him at his desk at the D.O.G.E., staring down the bureaucrats.

    What did you think of Elon’s talk?

    “I think we will have a golden age in this country.”

    More on tech:

    Elon Musk (Part 1): Overcoming the Odds

    Small Investors Lead to Big Investors

    What Happens in an Acquihire?

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Francisburg: My Ideal City

    “Imagine a city with high rise blocks and parks laid out like a checkerboard. Every building would be across the street from a park.”

    Years ago, I told my friend Will about my zany plan for a city.

    “I’d live in Francisburg,” Will said.

    And ever since, the name stuck.

    I’ve had a plan for a city in my head for at least a decade. And since this blog is all about the future, I thought I’d share it with you.

    Tell me what you think! Am I crazy, or would you live in Francisburg too?

    The Plan for Francisburg

    At first, Francisburg would be small. We’ll start with 1 square mile, about the size of Hoboken, NJ or the West Village, two charming neighborhoods in my area.

    All of Francisburg would be laid out in blocks. Every block would have either buildings or a park.

    The blocks would be laid out in checkerboard fashion. Imagine the black squares with buildings and white squares with parks.

    At first, we’d only open 4 blocks for development. There would be no limits on building height.

    The limited land and easy zoning means that the blocks with buildings would be full of high rises. These high rises would be mixed use, making it easy to access everything you need from work to groceries to nightlife.

    Every 8 blocks, we’d have a Megapark. This would be 4 contiguous blocks of nothing but park.

    Over time, as the building blocks fill up, we’d release more to development.

    An Urban Planner Weighs In

    I recently met with the founder of a cool startup. And, miracle of miracles, he just happened to be an urban planner in his former life. I explained my idea for Francisburg.

    “Tell me why this is a terrible idea,” I said.

    “It’s not a terrible idea,” he replied. “This could go one of two ways. Barcelona actually has a superblock layout like this.”

    Ooh, one of my favorite cities. Go on…

    “But it’s also a lot like Le Corbusier, the high rise in a park. And that turned into housing projects.”

    Uh oh.

    “So the key is to make it mixed use,” he added.

    Mixed use is definitely the direction I’d go. I want to be able to get everything I need within a short walk, just like I do here in the NYC area.

    I would also add that housing projects are full of desperately poor people. Any such agglomeration would probably see some issues.

    Francisburg would be highly desirable. Who wouldn’t want to live in a beautiful new building surrounded by parks, right?

    Can You Get it Built?

    Can we actually get this thing built? Probably…

    To be useful, Francisburg can’t be in the middle of nowhere. I want it within 60 minutes commute of a major city.

    And it just so happens, there’s 3.75 square miles of land for sale just 51 minutes from downtown Austin, Texas.

    And what beautiful land it is! Gently rolling hills and pretty little trees and shrubs that could be incorporated into the park blocks.

    Best of all, it has almost no restrictions on development.

    Even if the price is high, the value of what you could build here would more than make up for it.

    Austin just might be the hottest city in America right now — who wouldn’t want to be in a beautiful new town nearby? Add in driverless Waymos, and that commute looks like a breeze.

    Wrap-Up

    I’d kill to see this city built! It’s absolutely doable and would be hugely profitable.

    I am in tech, not real estate. But if I ever see a project like this, I just might have to pick up and move.

    What do you think? Would you live in Francisburg?

    More on development:

    Apartments Are Banned from 76% of San Francisco

    YIMBY Is Working Wonders in New Zealand

    Why Manufactured Housing Won’t Fix High Housing Costs

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Dating Apps: Deader Than Elvis?

    For the last decade, dating apps have been the way to meet. But now, users are in decline and stocks are down. Are dating apps dead? And what will replace them?

    An Industry in Decline

    The number of active users for dating apps worldwide is down from 287 million in 2020 to 237 million in 2023. It’s showing in the stocks of dating app companies — some are down over 90%.

    Certain apps are faring better than others. Tinder, the crown jewel of Match Group and the largest dating app in the world, has stopped growing. Hinge however, also owned by Match Group, is up 48%.

    Why Aren’t People Swiping?

    People are exhausted by dating apps. They can be a lot of work — countless swipes, a smaller number of matches, a handful of those converting to dates, and most of those dates not working out.

    Women in particular are deleting the apps. 79% of women say they have no interest in using them in the future.

    Dating fatigue goes way beyond apps. More and more singles have given up on dating altogether. 50% of singles aren’t dating at all, according to a survey by Pew Research.

    Of all my unattached friends, not a single one of them dates, ever. Nor do they have any interest in doing so.

    They’re in their 30’s and early 40’s, and they’ve built lives they’re happy with. To them, dating sounds exhausting and pointless.

    My Experience With the Apps

    As a single guy, I use the apps myself. If you’re a man in the New York City area, it’s like drinking from a fire hose.

    In just the last couple days, I got 9 matches. My phone pings over and over with messages from different women, despite your humble blogger being thoroughly unremarkable. 😉

    Nearly all are attractive. Many are much younger than I. But I only have time to meet a tiny fraction of them.

    This surely leads to a frustrating experience for many girls. Even a very attractive girl may struggle to get a date, much less a relationship.

    There’s also the paradox of choice. Infinite options make it harder to choose anything.

    After all, who knows what else is out there?

    It doesn’t surprise me that Hinge is doing better than Tinder. Tinder is filled with women in Thailand and Kenya trying to meet Americans.

    Meanwhile, Hinge has women who actually live here. When friends ask me which app is best, I always go with Hinge.

    What’s Replacing Dating Apps

    So if the apps are dying, what will replace them? Increasingly, I think dating apps will be replaced by just not dating at all.

    I see it among my friends. It’s kind of startling to watch, but people withdrawing from dating altogether for many years is becoming commonplace.

    This may mean that people spend more time on social media or playing video games. Or perhaps they’ll put that energy into offline hobbies like hiking or camping.

    For those still looking for a date, in person is beating the apps.

    The NYC area is full of run clubs. Some seem to just run a block or so to a bar and hang out. But after years of pandemic isolation, I think that’s great!

    With people looking to connect more in person, it’s no wonder that apps for live events are doing well. Luma is suddenly everywhere, and I’m sure many more live event apps will follow.

    Wrap-Up

    I find dating apps give me what I want. But my opinion is increasingly a minority one.

    More folks are ditching the apps and joining a run club. And I think that’s great! Meeting in person is ideal.

    As an investor, I’m not the least bit excited about dating apps.

    It seems like a dying category. I want to invest in growing areas, not moribund ones.

    I think that in 10 years, we’ll see more people embracing the single life. Those that want to date will meet increasingly IRL.

    That sounds like a great future!

    Are you on the apps? If so, what has your experience been like? If not, why not?

    Have a great weekend, everyone!

    More on tech:

    I Tested Groq Voice

    How I Find the Best YC Companies
    Small Investors Lead to Big Investors

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • I Tested Groq Voice

    Imagine talking to an AI assistant and getting a response in milliseconds. It exists, and it’s called Groq. Today, I ran it through 3 tests.

    Groq (not to be confused with Elon’s Grok) creates special chips to power AI models. Groq’s claim to fame is ultra-fast inference (or question-answering). Groq answers questions 3-20x faster than other platforms.

    Voice plus instantaneous responses give us the opportunity to have a truly natural conversation with AI. Let’s give it a shot!

    Test #1: Finding Cheap Flights

    I’m planning a trip to Japan in the new year. I’ve been 6 times and speak the language conversationally, but I haven’t been back since Covid.

    I’m itching to spend some time in the wonderful nation that I consider my home away from home!

    The one problem with going to Japan is the flight. It’s long and expensive.

    Let’s see if Groq can help…

    Round trip flights for $450…can it be? These usually go for at least $1000.

    Alas, these cheap flights are a mirage.

    Groq doesn’t provide any link to purchase them. And when I ask for links, it can’t provide them.

    After this, I went to Google Flights to see if Groq was right. Nope, nothing below $800.

    These results weren’t helpful at all. I’m giving Groq an F on this one.

    Test #2: Chasing the Cherry Blossoms

    Despite having visited Japan many times, I’ve actually never seen the cherry blossoms! So, what time of year do they usually show up in Tokyo?

    Let’s ask Groq…

    Groq gave an excellent response with incredible speed. I would’ve liked to see a citation, but this is still a great result.

    I’ll give Groq an A- here.

    Test #3: Making My Meetings Better

    On to business…

    I have a couple meetings this afternoon. How can I make them more efficient and productive?

    Let’s see what Groq has to say…

    Groq’s response is great. Minimizing distractions is a key point I’ll definitely remember. I also like how it bolded the first few words in each idea, making it easier to read.

    I’ll give Groq an A on this one.

    Wrap-Up

    For a first effort, Groq Voice is pretty darn impressive. The speed is what wowed me most…it’s like talking to a super genius that can answer most any question instantly.

    Overall, I’ll give Groq a B for now. I’d like to see more accurate responses plus links to citations. That would give me the confidence to make Groq my primary LLM.

    Instant voice responses open up incredible opportunities for Groq.

    Imagine this integrated into smart glasses like the Meta Ray-Bans or a Figure robot. You could talk into the air and get any question answered instantly. Androids could navigate the world confidently, able to access any info they need in milliseconds.

    Congrats to the Groq team. I can’t wait to see what they do with this!

    Have you tried Groq?

    More on tech:

    The New Figure 02 — The World’s Best Robot?
    How I Find the Best YC Companies
    Small Investors Lead to Big Investors

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • How I Find the Best YC Companies

    There are 247 startups in the YC S24 batch. You’re probably not going to meet them all. So how can you find the best ones?

    I look at every single startup, meet around 10-20% of them, and invest in perhaps one. Here’s how I do it…

    The Directory is Your Friend!

    YC produces a wonderful tool: the YC Startup Directory. It contains details on every single YC company, from Airbnb to the latest batch.

    Here’s how I use it to find great new startups:

    1. Choose the current batch (S24 is the current one)
    2. Sort by “Launch Date” instead of “Default.” Then, I can see each new startup as its product launches. If they’re pre-launch, they’re too early for me to meet with.
    3. Look at each page, see what looks interesting. What’s novel? What’s new?
    4. Contact the founders. Their LinkedIn is on the right hand side of the page.
    5. Set up meetings. The directory page is a great way to prep for these meetings. It’s almost like a mini-deal memo.

    What I’m Looking For

    I look for companies with $200-500k of live ARR. Very few YC companies have this, but some do.

    Those are the folks I’m looking for! If you see a company with $100-300k ARR while still in YC, that’s one of the strongest in their batch.

    A more typical YC startup might have a couple thousand a month in revenue, at best. A weaker one might not have any.

    The Gift That Keeps on Giving

    Yesterday, I met a YC company with an incredible product. The founders had great experience and were highly technical.

    But they only had a couple thousand a month in live MRR. This is a good start, but too early for me.

    So, I made a note to follow up with them next summer. By that point, they’ll probably be raising again.

    Startups are always raising money. Always. Don’t feel like you have to invest now.

    In a year or so, you’ll probably be able to invest again at the same price with a lot more traction! In fact, I’ve invested in 3 different YC companies this way in recent years.

    Why Demo Day Is Too Late

    I start contacting YC companies as soon as possible. I never wait until Demo Day.

    In some cases, I already knew the founders before they applied to YC. I may be one of the first people to hear about their admittance, and I make sure to set a meeting with them.

    Otherwise, I watch the YC directory like a hawk. Whenever an interesting new startup launches, there I am. 🙂

    But why not just wait for Demo Day?

    The best startups fill their funding round before Demo Day. If you wait until the herd sees them, you won’t be able to get into that round.

    Wrap-Up

    Investors love to complain about YC. “Wahhh, the valuations are too high, I want my mommy!”

    Boo hoo.

    They sorted through thousands of companies and picked the best ones. Then they funded them and gave them the best coaching on the planet.

    The deal is friggin’ gift wrapped for you. And you want that at a $8M post?

    I think YC is a wonderful part of startupland. Indeed, it’s hard to imagine a world without it.

    Now, back to trolling the directory!

    What do you think of YC?

    More on tech:

    Take This Out of Your Pitch Now

    Small Investors Lead to Big Investors

    Charge More!

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Take This Out of Your Pitch Now

    “Let me tell you how we got here…” This is the most useless part of a startup’s pitch. But you’d be amazed how many founders spend a ton of time on it!

    “Well, we started with furniture sales, then we pivoted to eVTOL sandwich delivery. But the FAA shut us down, so now we’re a B2B SaaS for accountants.” I’m left scratching my head.

    It’s Not Relevant

    Unless someone asks, you never need to explain how your company got to where it is today.

    Where you’ve been doesn’t matter. It’s where you are now that counts.

    Talking about prior iterations of your company risks losing your audience.

    “What do I care about the platform you scrapped last year?” they’ll be thinking. And once you lose your audience, it’s hard to get them back.

    It Takes Too Much Time

    Startup pitch meetings are usually short. Mine average about 20 minutes.

    You only have so much time to show the investor that your company is special. Remember, you have to beat 200 other founders to get that check.

    If you only have 20 minutes, why spend 10 on something irrelevant that isn’t getting you closer to a check? That won’t leave enough time to talk about what really matters.

    What to Talk About Instead

    So what really does matter?

    Three things drive a company: team, product, and customers. If you’re not talking about those things, you’re wasting your precious time with the investor.

    Talk about why your team is the right one to tackle this problem. Show off your awesome product. Tell me who your customers are and why they love your product. Dig into details on revenue and sales strategy.

    If you cover all this, you won’t have time for anything irrelevant!

    Wrap Up

    Your time is precious. So is that of investors.

    Use it wisely. Don’t tell meandering, irrelevant stories.

    Your company’s history matters a lot to you. But to everyone else, I’m sorry, but it just doesn’t!

    Stick to what’s important: team, customers, and product. Save the rest for your diary.

    What do you talk about in pitch meetings?

    More on tech:

    How Important Are Co-Investors?
    Small Investors Lead to Big Investors

    Charge More!

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • How Important Are Co-Investors?

    “A lot of VC’s just want to give us money because we’re in YC. They don’t care about what we’re building.” That was a great founder I spoke with yesterday who’s currently in YC.

    It seems insane to me, but a lot of investors operate like this. Team, product, traction, who cares? The only question is, “Who else is investing?”

    That is a terrible approach. Let me tell you why…

    You Can’t Ask Sequoia for a Refund

    Let’s say Sequoia is in the seed round of a company you invest in. You couldn’t possibly get a stronger co-investor.

    Two years later, the company goes to zero.

    You can’t come to Sequoia and ask them for your money back. So you better make your own decision!

    One Data Point Among Many

    If a company went to YC or a top firm is leading their seed, that’s great. I don’t discount that information completely.

    But it’s just one data point among many. And there are others that are a lot more important.

    How good is this team? How fast are they growing? Those factors matter more than any co-investor.

    At seed, the big firms make very few investments anyway. I consider the lead more carefully at Series A, an area where the big funds are more active.

    When the Co-Investors Are a Little Too Good

    If a seed round is really star studded, I actually get a bit nervous. In my experience, early rounds filled with blue chip investors correlate with poor performance. Many top investors have said the same.

    How on earth could this be?

    Maybe if everyone thinks a startup will succeed, the future that startup is proposing is too easy to imagine. It’s not a radical enough departure from today.

    A startup has to bring about radical change in order to make big money. Think staying in strangers’ spare rooms on Airbnb, something I never would’ve done in 1,000 years otherwise.

    A Peak Inside My Portfolio

    Let’s take a look at the most successful companies in my portfolio so far. How good were the co-investors?

    1. $17 million ARR. Party round, lower tier accelerator, one prominent angel and the founder of a unicorn startup. Good co-investors, but it’s not exactly YC and Sequoia.
    2. $12 million ARR. A good early stage VC firm, a prominent angel, and a solid accelerator. Good co-investors, but doesn’t knock your socks off.
    3. $7 million ARR. Strong accelerator, no one else notable.
    4. $6 million ARR. One prominent angel, no one else notable.

    What you see here is that the really successful companies may have one or two good investors. But they don’t have a round filled with famous names. And none of these companies went to YC.

    One startup in my portfolio had a particularly star studded cap table. One of the best early stage funds in the world led its seed round.

    That company is about to go out of business. Out of 31 investments I have, it’s one of the 2 least successful.

    Go figure.

    Wrap-Up

    It’s easy to be wowed by YC, Sequoia, or whoever. But here’s my advice: take it as one data point among many, and make your own decision.

    We investors have one mission: turn a dollar into two. If we back strong teams with great products, we can do it.

    The rest is noise.

    How much value do you place on co-investors?

    There will be no blog on Monday for Labor Day. Have a great holiday weekend, everyone!

    More on tech:

    Small Investors Lead to Big Investors

    Charge More!

    What Happens in an Acquihire?

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Charge More!

    You’re not charging enough for your product. Charging too little, or nothing at all, is the most common mistake I see founders make.

    Why do founders do this? And how much should you charge? Let me break it down…

    A Common Problem

    I cannot tell you how many founders I meet that have an awesome product but charge little or nothing for it.

    They have 1000 excuses. “We need to make the product better first.” Or the classic, “We just want to get our foot in the door.”

    The bottom line is this is a business. If you’re providing value to someone, you should capture some of that value.

    We are not doing charity work here.

    This problem is especially common among female founders, from what I’ve seen. Perhaps influenced by our gender mores, they are often reluctant to put value on what they’ve created.

    How Much to Charge

    When founders do charge, the price is often absurdly low. A product that saves a white collar worker 20 hours a month might cost $20/month.

    That worker’s total comp including benefits is probably $75/hour. This means you created $1500 worth of value ($75 x 20).

    And you’re only charging $20?

    Here’s a rule to determine what to charge: charge at least 10% of the value you create. In this example, you would charge $150/mo.

    Some products help you make more money, rather than save you time. In that case, the same math applies.

    Let’s say a product boosts my sales from $10,000 a month to $20,000. You want to charge at least $1,000 a month for that.

    This 10% rule of thumb is a floor, not a ceiling. Keep upping the price for new customers until you get serious resistance!

    Charging based on value creation works for B2B and B2C. Some B2C companies rely on ads, but this only works at enormous scale — see Facebook, Instagram, etc.

    Finding Out Who Your Customers Are

    People value what they pay for. If someone isn’t willing to pay you for your product, they’re not the customer you’re looking for.

    The people who will pay are getting the most value from your product. They will be the most engaged users.

    That’s who you want to build for!

    Don’t let cheapskates send you off on wild goose chases building X, Y and Z. Those features might be useless to your real customers!

    Instead, build for the folks who are most engaged — the folks who are paying.

    Building a Sustainable Business

    Every business has to make money. Otherwise, you’re dependent on fundraising.

    Fundraising is harder these days. And it’s especially hard for startups with little or no revenue.

    Your company exists to accomplish an important mission. But you can’t do that without money coming in the door.

    So you have to charge, and you have to charge commensurate with the value you create. That’s the only path to success.

    Wrap-Up

    My grandpa used to run a machine repair shop. He did wonderful work, but he charged practically nothing. And he never pushed customers to pay past due bills.

    One day, my grandma took him aside and said, “Jim, you’re not being fair to yourself.” She was right.

    Be fair to yourself. Don’t be afraid to put value on what you’ve built.

    Have you struggled with pricing your product?

    More on tech:

    Small Investors Lead to Big Investors

    What Happens in an Acquihire?

    Why I Only Invest in a Handful of Countries

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • How AI Will Gut Call Centers

    Two million people in the Philippines work in call centers. Soon, they may be replaced by AI.

    AI has impacted call centers more than just about any sector of the economy so far. AI systems are already answering most inquiries at some major companies.

    How long until these workers will be out of a job?

    The AI Wave

    There are few countries more dependent on call centers than the Philippines.

    At 2:00 am, Manila’s streets are full of workers on their “lunch break”. Huge sections of the population set their clocks to America.

    The call center industry has been good to the Philippines. Millions of workers have found higher wages and job security.

    But now, AI is threatening that progress.

    Call centers are rapidly installing AI systems. And the layoffs have already begun.

    AI could decimate the Philippines’ call center industry.

    Klarna already has an AI system answering 2/3rds of customer service inquiries. If that becomes the norm, call centers could be a thing of the past.

    Specializing for Superior Performance

    Today’s general purpose customer service bots are only the beginning. I’m meeting tons of startups that are building specialized agents that will outperform today’s generalist tools.

    I’ve seen products for car dealerships, dentist’s offices, and more. These products are attuned to the exact questions that come up in these businesses.

    That will allow them to blow away today’s AI bots. That means even more job losses in customer service.

    The Limitations of AI

    To replace humans, AI needs to do more than just answer questions. It needs to take actions.

    I need AI to rebook my flight, send me a new credit card when I lose mine, or close my account. This will require AI agents, not just chatbots.

    Today’s AI customer service tools mostly just answer questions. But tons of startups are building AI agents.

    I expect to see powerful agentic systems within the next couple of years.

    This leaves only the most extreme edge cases for humans to handle. Companies may keep 5-10% of their existing customer service staff to handle those.

    Wrap-Up

    AI is killing jobs in customer service. But it’s also creating new opportunities for workers in places like the Phillipines.

    Some are training AI models. Others are becoming virtual assistants. Many of these jobs pay better than customer service.

    For workers that improve their skills, AI is an opportunity. But those that don’t will soon be out of a job.

    What’s happening in the Philippines today will be happening in the US soon. As AI tools get better, more complex jobs in developed nations will be at risk.

    The best protection for workers is upping their skills.

    How do you think AI will affect jobs?

    More on tech:
    Small Investors Lead to Big Investors

    What Happens in an Acquihire?

    Why I Only Invest in a Handful of Countries

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order.