“This is so cool!” Whenever I find myself saying that, I usually want to place a bet.
PodcastAI makes podcast production automatic. Just drop in an episode and you get show notes, chapters, viral clips to post to Twitter and Youtube, and a lot more.
This spring, founder Edward Brawer was telling me about their new AI Chat feature. It lets you ask an AI version of the host a question and get a response based on info from previous episodes.
Chatting with your favorite podcasters…who wouldn’t want to do that?
Edward isn’t stopping there. He’s made fully synthetic content using AI, like this hilarious AI All-In episode:
Adyen processes payments for a billion shoppers worldwide. Its market cap is over $46 billion.
In a great talk at the All-In Summit, Co-CEO Ingo Uytdehaage tells the besties what it’s like to expand internationally and how AI is revolutionizing payments.
Boosting Profits with AI
“Where’s the real world business impact of AI?” I can’t count how many times I’ve heard this. Hopefully Ingo’s interview puts this question to rest.
Ingo explains that Adyen has saved customers 20% on debit transactions by routing their payments to cheaper rails. Since Adyen processes over $1 trillion a year in payments, this is a massive savings.
Ingo is also saving Adyen money by integrating AI into its support function. This is a common use for generative AI, and every company can benefit from it.
No wonder Adyen is incredibly profitable, pulling in over $700 million a year in net income. Yum yum!
Expanding Abroad
It’s not lost on Ingo that his company is one of the very few success stories for tech in Europe. That comes with advantages, but also big challenges.
The Netherlands, where Adyen is based, is small. So they had to go international from day one.
But serving foreign markets from Amsterdam just doesn’t work. So Ingo has hired teams in the US and around the world, close to customers.
This is very smart.
I might want to sell in Japan, for example. But I don’t really know what Japanese companies want to buy or how their sales culture works. And while I speak some Japanese, a native speaker will be a much more effective salesman than I.
Recruiting the Best
The one bright side of being a big fish in a small pond for Adyen is that in Europe, recruiting is easy. There aren’t many other options!
But in America, they’re competing with Google, Facebook, you name it. And here, Adyen is not that well known.
That has made recruiting a challenge. But the size of the market makes the struggle well worth it.
The US is Adyen’s fastest growing market and represents a third of revenues. And from what I know about business cultures, I’m guessing the American customers are a lot more direct and decisive.
What’s Going on in Amsterdam?
I find it interesting that one of Europe’s most successful tech companies is based not in one of the biggest cities, like London, Paris or Rome, but in Amsterdam. ASML and Prosus, two of the largest tech companies in Europe, are also based in the Netherlands.
In all, 3 out of the top 5 largest European tech companies by market cap are based in tiny Holland. Something’s going on over there…
Indeed, I’m finalizing an investment in a Dutch startup now. I’m going to keep scouring this area looking for prospects.
I’ll tell you what I find.
Wrap-Up
Adyen shows us that Europe can produce first rate tech companies. And if you had any doubt that AI was going to make a huge impact, just look at Adyen’s juicy bottom line.
What did you think of Ingo’s talk?
This concludes our series on talks from the All-In Summit.
What a fantastic bunch of speakers! I hope to attend in person in the future and see them live!
I am so sick of hearing helicopters going over my house! I live in North Jersey just outside NYC, and let me tell you, it’s nonstop. But there’s a solution, and it could be here as soon as next year.
Electronic Vertical Takeoff and Landing craft (eVTOLs) from Joby Aviation could be in NYC as soon as 2025. In a fascinating talk at the All-In Summit, the founders of Joby and fellow eVTOL startups Archer and Wisk explain how flying cars are closer than we think.
Downtown to JFK in 7 Minutes
As I write this on a Wednesday afternoon, Google is telling me that it will take about 45 minutes to get from downtown Manhattan to Kennedy airport. That’s actually really good — it’s often twice that or more!
Joby plans to get that down to just 7 minutes.
The cost could be lower than a helicopter since eVTOLs have a much simpler design. And already, helicopter trips on Blade often cost about the same as an Uber to/from JFK.
But to me, the best part is how quiet they are. Check out this video of a Joby compared with other aircraft!
These aircraft run at just 45 db, about as loud as a refrigerator. To me, it just sounds like wind.
This will be a massive improvement in quality of life for everyone in major metro areas.
Not Just Quieter — Safer
“Driving is more than 10,000 times more dangerous per passenger mile than flying is.”
JoeBen Bevirt, Founder & CEO, Joby Aviation
If you take an eVTOL to JFK, you don’t just save lots of time and wear and tear on Francis’ eardrums. You just might save your own life.
Driving is incredibly dangerous. Any car trips we can replace with flying is a huge win.
Airlines have an incredible safety record. Helicopters, while not as safe as airlines, are still dramatically better than a car.
eVTOLs should be much safer than a helicopter. The design is simpler, and they have many rotors — 6, in the case of the Joby aircraft. If one or more stop working, you should still be able to land safely.
Joby and Archer will use pilots. But Wisk is going even further, developing fully automated eVTOLs.
If they can nail the automation, these might be even safer than human pilots.
Wrap-Up
eVTOLs, rotors softly beating in the wind over NYC. It’s an incredible vision.
But Bevirt of Joby plans to go much further.
He plans to make Joby aircraft so quiet they can land in your yard. A flying car, at your service!
This is an incredible future. I’d be tempted to take one, even if I wasn’t going anywhere.
I think a lot of us can relate to Bevirt when he says:
Investors are obsessed with pedigree. Today, I made a list of where every founder I’ve invested in went to college. So, do the top schools produce better founders? Let’s find out…
To be consistent, I looked at where the Founder & CEO of each of my investments got their bachelor’s degree. Here’s what I found:
The List
None: 3 USC: 2 UNC: 2 Cal Poly – 1 U of Pittsburgh: 1 UCSD: 1 Georgia Tech: 1 Le Havre Normandy University: 1 American River College: 1 DePaul: 1 Florida State: 1 Baruch College: 1 University of Minnesota: 1 NYU: 1 Ivan Franko National University of Lviv: 1 Arizona State: 1 Carleton: 1 Universidad Tecnológica Nacional (Argentina): 1 UC Berkeley: 1 Syracuse: 1 U of Oregon: 1 BYU: 1 Northwestern: 1 Johns Hopkins: 1 Centenary University: 1 U of Waterloo: 1 Auburn: 1
Some Surprising Results
These results surprised me!
I didn’t think I’d see “None” leading the list. And who knew USC was such a hotbed of startups?
I’m also surprised to see that there’s not a single Ivy League, Stanford or MIT kid on the list (although several got graduate degrees from those schools). I guess they’re not the only game in town!
Better Schools, Better Founders?
So, do better schools produce better founders?
At least in my portfolio, the answer is no. Some of my most successful founders went to great schools like NYU, but I also have some founders who are struggling that went to top schools.
Overall, I don’t see any correlation between prestige of their college and success. In fact, one of the more successful fellows in my portfolio didn’t go to college at all!
Wrap-Up
As startups have gone mainstream, credentialism has become the rule. Sure you have a great product…but do you have Stanford, YC, or Google stamped on your butt?
If not, keep it moving.
I never invest this way. I look at performance, pure and simple. And in my sample of 31 companies, top schools aren’t producing better founders.
Last night, Elon took the stage and unveiled two of the most amazing new products I’ve ever seen: the Cybercab and the Robovan. Our cities are about to look very different.
‘What the Heck Is That?’
“You see a lot of sci-fi movies where the future is dark, dismal. It’s not a future you want to be in. We want to have a fun exciting future that, if you could look in a crystal ball and see the future, you’d be like, ‘Yes, I wish I could be there now.’” – Elon Musk
At first, I thought it was a Cybertruck. But as Elon pulled up, you could see it was something very different: the new Cybercab. This is the first vehicle I’ve ever seen with no steering wheel.
The Cybercab will provide fully autonomous taxi rides. Elon plans to have it available as soon as 2026.
With no human driver, the rides will be dirt cheap. Elon projects a price of around 30-40 cents a mile.
With the short, urban rides I take, I could go from paying $10 to $1. Unbelievable. Meanwhile, longer trips would become affordable.
If you want to buy your own Cybercab, they won’t cost much:
“We expect the cost to be below $30,000.”
That’s incredible. A fully autonomous vehicle for the price of a Toyota Camry.
This thing will take over the market.
A Bus Unlike Any You’ve Ever Seen
But what stole the show was another new vehicle: the Robovan.
“Can you imagine going down the streets and you see this coming towards you? That’d be sick!”
The Robovan can seat 20 people. It can be used for people or cargo. It has no driver or even visible wheels.
I’ve never seen anything like it in my entire life.
Nobody really wants to ride the bus. But who won’t want to ride in this?
I can’t tell you how much this hits home for me. I’ve taken the bus since I was a little boy, all the way through to today.
Growing up in Northern Wisconsin, we often waited an hour or more in deep snow, wondering where the bus was. Once we got on, it was slow, smelly, and stopped running at 6 o’clock.
If I get to ride in a Robovan before I die, I’ll lose it! And it could be available in just a few years.
Transportation in the Robovan will be even cheaper than the Cybercab — 5 to 10 cents a mile, by Elon’s estimate.
Rock, Paper, Scissors
If that wasn’t enough for you, Elon also showed off the latest Optimus robot.
He makes an interesting point: the motors, AI systems and batteries in the cars are the same ones he uses in the Optimus. The cars are already out there in the millions, and soon Optimus will be too.
The Optimus is not demo-ware. Elon let them loose in the crowd.
They played rock, paper scissors with guests and even served drinks! And when they danced, they did the robot.
“I think this will be the biggest product ever, of any kind.”
With Optimus in the home doing housework and keeping us company, and more of them in factories and on farms, I don’t doubt Elon is right.
AI will give us infinite human intelligence. Optimus will give us infinite human labor.
The future will be unlike anything we’ve ever seen. It will be awesome.
“The cost of products and services will decline dramatically and basically anyone will be able to have any products and services they want. It will be an age of abundance the likes of which almost no one has envisioned.”
Wrap-Up
This is the wildest demo I’ve ever seen, from any company. I cannot wait to step into a Robovan and shake an Optimus’ hand.
What do you think of the Tesla demo?
What a way to head into the weekend!
There will be no blog on Monday for Columbus Day. Have a great weekend, guys!
P.S. The demo starts at the 52 minute mark in the video, if you want to watch it yourself…which I highly recommend!
Two men tried to kill President Trump within 64 days. How could the Secret Service let this happen?
The decline of this once respected agency is the focus of Carol Leonnig’s 2021 book Zero Fail: The Rise and Fall of the Secret Service. I just finished it, and let me tell you, the problems are way worse than I ever imagined.
A History of Failure
“What the f— is wrong with you guys?” – Donald Trump
President Trump uttered those words when two agents were caught taking selfies with his sleeping grandson. While this is invasive and totally unprofessional, it’s the least of the Service’s misdeeds.
In recent years, we have repeatedly come close to presidents being assassinated. These stories have been little reported in the media.
In 2014, a man jumped the White House fence and made it all the way to the foot of the stairs to the president’s private residence. He was armed with a knife.
Everyone was expecting a dog to stop him. But the dog was inside a car taking a nap!
You can’t make this stuff up.
President Obama didn’t fire the director, Julia Pierson, after this incident. That failure in leadership could have cost him his life — thank God it didn’t.
This wasn’t the first time in recent years that the Agency allowed an attack on the White House.
In 2011, a gunman fired on the White House multiple times with an assault rifle. The Agency didn’t even realize there were bullets lodged in the building until days later.
A Frathouse Culture
You expect Secret Service agents to be stone faced g-men. But their behavior is more like frat brothers in Cancun.
On a presidential trip to Cartagena, Colombia during the Obama administration, multiple agents were caught with prostitutes in their hotel rooms. One of the women even showed up in a government database as a possible cartel operative.
Agents repeated these hijinks all over the world. If the Russian or Chinese security agencies haven’t put a beautiful female spy in front of these men, somebody’s not doing their job over there.
This unprofessional culture is nothing new.
Several agents were out drinking the night before John F. Kennedy was assassinated. Had they been sharper that day, they might have prevented it.
Whenever the Service discovers these screw-ups, the punishment tends to be a slap on the wrist.
Underfunded, Understaffed, and Without a Clear Mission
When we think of the Secret Service, we think of guys in dark suits standing around the president. But most agents don’t do that.
The Service has countless missions. It protects foreign leaders, handles financial fraud, helps police find missing kids, and researches traits of school shooters to help communities.
Those are all worthy goals. But if there’s one thing I’ve learned in business, it’s this: when you have 5 priorities, you have none.
The Service should focus on protecting the president, top administration officials, and their families. That’s it.
Despite all those different jobs, the Service has been underfunded for generations. Security details are understaffed, equipment is outdated, and overworked agents quit regularly.
Wrap-Up
The Secret Service has no leadership and no clue. The fact that more presidents haven’t been assassinated is the best evidence I know of for God’s providence.
The Service needs one mission and enough funding to accomplish it. And it needs strong leadership that doesn’t make excuses for failure.
Let’s do it now, before we lose another president.
Founders often tell you they’re going to send monthly updates, but how often do they really do it? Today, I did a review of my entire portfolio to answer that question. Here’s what I found…
A Peak Inside My Portfolio
31 names in the portfolio total
28 of those investments are active (the others have exited)
2 founders said upfront that they are not doing updates. I invested knowing that, so I am not expecting anything from them.
2 investments were made in the last 3 months. Those rounds are still closing, so I don’t expect an update yet.
That leaves 24 active investments that should be sending updates. So, did they do it?
20 of 24 have sent an update in September or October
2 sent updates in August
1 sent an update in April
Only 1 company has not sent an update this entire year. I just contacted them to see what’s new.
Amazing job, founders! 20/24, or 83% of companies are right on time with their updates. Most of those that are behind are pretty close.
Given how much work it is to run a company, that’s incredibly impressive!
Do Frequent Updates Correlate with Success?
I’ve heard a ton of investors say that the more frequent the updates, the more successful the company. But from what I’ve seen, that is not true.
The results are bimodal. If you aren’t hearing from a company, it’s either a likely 0 or a huge success.
My most successful investment is a SaaS startup I backed at pre-seed that hit $17 million ARR in less than two years. I rarely hear from them.
And guess what — I don’t care! I’m never going to bother these guys for an update.
By contrast, the company I have yet to hear from this year is probably about to go out of business, if it hasn’t already.
What Should You Do if You Don’t Get an Update?
“You are 11 hours late on your update! How dare you?! I gave you money!” Yeah, not that.
I never contact a company for an update unless I have not heard from them in 9 months or more. Running a company is hard. If a founder commits to monthly updates, I’m happy if I get 4 a year.
After 9 months, I send a very polite message:
“Hi Jim!
Did I miss your monthly update? I’m not seeing one since December 2023.
Hope all’s well with you!
Best,
F”
Notice how I put the blame on myself. Maybe my spam filter zapped their message or it got lost in an avalanche of ads.
If I still don’t hear for another few weeks, I’ll send another message. The key is to be nice. These folks are working hard for you, and they don’t always have time to get the update in.
What Should Be in My Update?
Some founders miss updates because they think an update has to be an elaborate presentation. Not so.
Here’s what an investor update should look like:
“Dear Uber Investors,
We had another great month! Big increase in sign-ups is driving revenue.
No one knows for sure, but Juan Carlos Belmonte is getting close.
In a fascinating talk at the All-In Summit, Belmonte explains how he’s using cellular reprogramming to reverse aging in mice and, perhaps one day, us.
Why We Age
After age 40, the likelihood of death skyrockets.
It barely matters what cause of death we look at. All the curves slope upward violently around that age — which is right around the age I am now.
As we age, our cells become less able to repair themselves. Eventually, the damage becomes more than we can bear, and we die.
But Belmonte, a researcher at the Salk Institute and Altos Labs, thinks he has the solution.
How Yamanaka Factors Could Reverse Aging
Belmonte gives short pulses of Yamanaka factors to cells. These pulses change the epigenome, or the way genes express themselves. They don’t change our actual DNA.
These short pulses can rejuvenate cells.
So far, Altos Labs has succeeded in reversing aging in countless mouse models: liver, kidneys, brain, muscle tissue, and skin. They’re also studying the use of metformin in monkeys to restore cognitive function in elderly animals and increase lifespan.
Rejuvenating Humans
Helping mice live longer is impressive. But when you get to monkeys, you’re incredibly close to being able to treat a human.
Human beings are where Belmonte is headed next. His team is working on rejuvenating human cells in vitro, or in a petri dish.
Next, he plans to work on rejuvenating organs that have been donated. Sometimes, those organs aren’t in good enough condition to be transplanted. But if Belmonte can reprogram them, surgeons may be able to use them.
In vitro studies and rejuvenating organs for transplant will be incredible proofs of concept. And since they pose no danger to humans, they’re a clever way to test Altos’ technology.
When Is the Pill Coming?
But of course, we all have one question: how long until I can take a pill and be young again?
Belmonte’s answer shocked me:
“I feel the next decade probably many of these discoveries, with the caveat that it’s a mouse and a mouse is not a human, might be translated to humans.”
Ten years. That’s nothing!
In a decade, we could be taking pills to live longer and healthier. Even if he’s wrong and it takes 20 or 30, it will still be the greatest achievement ever made by human beings.
And If You Don’t Want to Wait…
In the mean time, there are ways we can rejuvenate our own cells. And they don’t take a scientific breakthrough.
Exercise causes cellular changes very similar to short pulses of Yamanaka factors. You can bet I’ll be hopping on my exercise bike in a bit.
Yamanaka here I come!
Wrap-Up
I think it’s wonderful that we have a society that will give billions of dollars to a guy like Belmonte and say “Give it a shot!” Even if he fails, one of the many other teams working on longevity will surely crack the code.
We might live much longer than we ever imagined. 120 years, 180, who knows.
“The true test of someone’s character is how they behave under fire.”
Elon Musk
Exactly 12 weeks before Elon’s speech, a deranged man shot President Trump. In the same spot in Butler, PA, Elon told us why he’s supporting Trump in his bid to return to the White House.
“This is no ordinary election. The other side wants to take away your freedom of speech. They want to take away your right to bear arms. They want to take away your right to vote, effectively.” – Elon Musk
Musk’s words might sound like an exaggeration. But keep in mind that Kamala Harris’ running mate, Tim Walz, has said “there’s no guarantee to free speech on misinformation or hate speech…”
Who decides what is hate speech? And if misinformation were illegal, who decides what is true?
Perhaps a Ministry of Truth can tell us. That’s how it worked in Orwell’s 1984.
I thought that was just fiction. But maybe it’s about to become a reality.
The extreme left has also tried hard to keep Trump off the ballot, denying Americans a choice in who governs us. It’s only because of the brave Supreme Court that Trump is even on the ballot in Colorado, Illinois, Maine and several other states.
Whichever candidate we prefer, I hope we can all agree that Americans should be free to speak their mind and free to vote for who they choose. At the most basic level, that’s what America is about.
But despite appearing at a Trump rally, most of Elon’s speech wasn’t about supporting Donald Trump. It was about making sure to vote, and making sure others do as well.
“Be a pest to everyone you know, people on the street, everywhere.” – Elon Musk
Although his speech lasted a mere six minutes, Elon repeated this point over and over. It’s clear how important he thinks this election is.
“This is a must-win situation.” – Elon Musk
Trump is clearly delighted to see Elon. He connects Elon’s success to his plans for the country:
“We’re going to have the American dream so every kid in your family is gonna grow up and say ‘I wanna be like Elon Musk. I wanna have $200 billion in cash.’” – Donald Trump
It makes me happy to see a candidate who celebrates success in business. Whenever Harris mentions the successful, all she ever talks about is the need for them to “pay their fair share,” whatever that is.
It was wonderful to see President Trump return to Butler. He returned full of life, the best possible repudiation of that cowardly assassin.
How do you think the Air Force inspects nuclear missile silos? A cool green laser, or maybe some infrared goggles?
Well, until recently, they did it like this:
“…Joe on a rope with a hammer, he was listening to the sound that the silos made when he hit it.”
That’s Jake Loosararian, Founder & CEO of Gecko Robotics. At the All-In Summit, Jake tells the story of how Gecko Robotics went from his dorm room to managing over 500,000 pieces of infrastructure around the world.
Founding Gecko Robotics
Jake started building robots in his dorm room. In 2016, he founded Gecko Robotics.
For 3 years, he bootstrapped the company. He spent every penny he had and slept on his friend’s floor to save on rent.
Not many founders care this much about what they’re doing. When you meet one that does, you want to give him money and get out of his way!
That’s exactly what Y Combinator did. Today, Gecko is valued at $600 million.
Investors worried that hardware would be difficult to scale and capital intensive. But as the robots came together, they provided a moat against competition. No one else had the data those robots could provide.
Fixing the Built World
Gecko’s robots specialize in inspecting infrastructure. Jake’s robots crawl over oil tanks and fly under bridges, looking for defects.
Jake’s robots can walk, climb, fly or swim anywhere. Wherever they go, they gather data.
Then, Gecko’s software crunches those numbers to determine what maintenance is needed and when.
Sending humans to inspect infrastructure is dangerous. This is a job best left to the bots.
Defending America
Some of the most exciting applications for Gecko are in defense. The military has untold billions of dollars worth of assets, many of them aging and desperately in need of maintenance.
The procedures before Gecko were laughable.
Men laying on skateboards inspected ships for corrosion. A man with a hammer checked our nuclear missile silos.
How did we ever allow things to get so messed up?
Today, Jake’s robots are inspecting these silos and ships. There will be countless more defense applications, from tanks to aircraft.
In order to defend ourselves, our equipment has to be in ship shape. Jake’s robots are making sure we’re ready at all times.
What Else Can These Robots Do?
The port strike seems to be resolved — for now. But we’re vulnerable to another strike at any time. And our ports remain way behind the rest of the world, totally reliant on human labor.
I’d love to see these robots unleashed on the ports. They could inspect infrastructure to make sure it’s working properly. Perhaps they could even move cargo.
Jake confirms that Gecko’s robots could be used in ports, and I’m excited to see it happen!
Wrap-Up
As an investor, Jake is exactly the kind of founder I want to back. He cares so much about what he’s doing that he was willing to live on next to nothing for years to make it happen.
I hope to see Gecko’s robots everywhere in the future, making sure our towns are safe and our military is ready for anything.
Tremendous 