Tremendous

An angel investor's take on life and business

  • How I Make Sure I’m Never Late to Meet a Founder

    If you’ve ever met with me, chances are I was on time. Today, I thought I’d share the little trick I use to ensure I’m never late.

    I fine myself $10 for every minute I’m late. Being late costs me $600 an hour.

    Telling myself “Don’t be late!” is one thing. Putting an actual price on it is quite another.

    To be sure I make it on time, I usually dial into the meeting 2 minutes early. Then there’s time for software slowness (I’m looking at you, Microsoft Teams).

    Where I Stole the Idea From

    I got this idea from Ben Horowitz at a16z. In his excellent book The Hard Thing About Hard Things, he mentions that at a16z, the partners are fined $10 for every minute they’re late to a founder meeting.

    Hey, maybe I’m not an a16z partner. But my attitude is that if I don’t learn how to do this job properly on a small scale now, I won’t know what to do in the future either.

    We are what we practice.

    Showing Respect

    Why is it so important to me to show up on time? It comes down to showing respect for the founders I meet with.

    I’ve heard a lot of horror stories about VC’s making founders wait for 30 minutes or longer. The VC acts like a king and treats the founder like a poor supplicant.

    Startup founders are some of the busiest people in the world. They don’t have time to sit around waiting for me to show up.

    When someone is on time to meet you, they’re showing respect for you and your time. That’s something I want to communicate each and every day.

    What Happens to the Money?

    So if I’m fining myself, where does the money go?

    I find a homeless person on the street and give it to them. So far, I’ve only paid out $10. I was late to a meeting with a great SaaS founder — sorry about that Anastasiia!

    I like that at least somebody benefits from my mistake. Although at this rate, I probably ought to just start making some donations.

    Wrap-Up

    It’s amazing how little tricks can help us modify our behavior. I’ve found that putting a price on tardiness works great for me.

    Give it a try — I bet you’ll find yourself magically on time for everything!

    Have a great weekend, everybody!

    More from the blog:

    Small Investors Lead to Big Investors

    Elon at the All-In Summit

    Backing One of the World’s Fastest Growing Startups | The Mr. Bray Labs Podcast

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • How We Get to Mars: Woody Hoburg at the All-In Summit

    Halloween of 2000 was the last time all humans were on earth. Since then, astronauts have occupied the International Space Station (ISS) at all times. In a fascinating talk at the All-In Summit, astronaut Woody Hoburg tells us about life and space and how we’ll get to Mars.

    Life in Space

    Hoburg spent 185 days in space. It’s so hard to imagine being weightless, floating in the black, for over 6 months!

    Due to its speed of orbit, astronauts see 16 sunrises and sunsets every day on the ISS. But there isn’t much time to enjoy the view.

    They’re busy with science experiments and ship maintenance. They also have to do 2.5 hours a day of exercise, split evenly between cardio and strength training. This helps them avoid losing muscle in the weightlessness of space.

    Hoburg passed the time listening to lots of podcasts and music. It’s funny to imagine astronauts doing the same things we do in such a radically different environment!

    Preventing Human Extinction

    I love seeing astronauts up in space. It is truly the final frontier for us humans.

    But space exploration isn’t just exciting. It’s the key to ensuring humans do not go extinct.

    Even if a nuclear war killed all humans on earth, there would still be humans in space.

    Right now, those humans would starve to death without regular resupply from earth. But if we created self-sustaining colonies on the ISS, the moon, or Mars, humanity could survive and rebuild.

    Getting to Mars

    The ISS is awesome, but NASA isn’t stopping there. NASA plans to return astronauts to the moon in 2026.

    I cannot wait to watch this on YouTube! I’m too young to have seen the original moon landing, and I imagine many of you are as well.

    This is our generation’s chance to see it!

    After the moon, NASA plans to go to Mars. The moon will provide a crucial testing ground for the technologies that will get us to the red planet.

    “We see the moon as our path to Mars, and that is absolutely our strategy.”

    Woody Hoburg

    Wrap-Up

    This was fun to write! I don’t know about you, but astronauts bring out my childlike enthusiasm. It’s exciting!

    Imagine the world 20 years from now, in 2044. There could be self-sustaining human colonies on the moon and Mars.

    When you look up at the night sky, you will be able to imagine them there. On that day, we will also know that humans will survive, no matter what.

    Congrats to Hoburg on his incredible mission!

    “It was, like, the thrill of a lifetime to spend 6 months living and working in space, but there’s also just nothing like returning home to the people you love.”

    Woody Hoburg

    More from the All-In Summit:

    Elon at the All-In Summit

    Ukraine, China and the Deep State: Mearsheimer and Sachs at the All-In Summit

    Two Million Miles Without a Fatality: Waymo’s CEO at the All-In Summit

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Big money, politics and polarization: Krysten Sinema at the All-In Summit

    “The two parties actually talk about each other in this existential threat way. Like the only way the country will be safe is if we eliminate the existence of the other party.”

    That’s Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema at the All-In Summit. In a conversation with the besties, Sinema explains how politics got so vicious, why she opposed Biden’s signature legislation, and more.

    How Money in Politics Feeds Polarization

    “A senate seat in Arizona is like, what, $150 million? So you do need a lot of help.”

    Sinema explains that the big money in politics feeds polarization.

    If you need $150 million to win, it sure helps to have the backing of the national party. They can line up donors and fill your coffers.

    But he who pays the piper calls the tune. If you want to keep getting that money, you have to vote however the party leaders tell you.

    Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer once pressured Sinema on a vote on Israel policy. She rebuffed him, a risky move.

    In March, Sinema announced she wouldn’t be running for re-election. She plans to enter the private sector after her term ends in January.

    It’s interesting…Sinema is a moderate, a maverick. And she’s not going to be in the Senate anymore.

    What does that tell you?

    Our Congress doesn’t welcome centrists. What’s more, even politicians see government as ineffectual and the private sector as the only place where you can get things done.

    Killing Build Back Better

    Perhaps Sinema’s boldest stand was opposing Biden’s Build Back Better legislation. This bill would’ve spent $4 trillion on a grab bag of programs.

    Opposition from Sinema and Senator Joe Manchin helped kill the bill.

    Had the government pumped an additional $4 trillion into the economy, inflation would be far worse. Fed rate cut? Haha, that’s a good one!

    The Build Back Better plan is also a great illustration of why we need the filibuster, a rule Sinema supports. If Congress could ram through extreme legislation like this with a bare 1 seat majority, our politics would become even more venomous.

    Where I Disagree with Sinema

    I like Sinema’s stands on government spending and the economy. But Israel is one issue on which I totally disagree with her.

    Near the end of her talk, Sinema brings up claims that Israel is committing a genocide in Gaza.

    “That’s insane,” she says. But if it’s not a genocide, what is it?

    Israel has killed over 40,000 people in Gaza, many of them civilians. They’ve driven millions of Palestinians from their homes.

    Mass killings, enforced hunger, forced relocations — this is textbook genocide.

    Sinema’s defense of Israel’s actions has no substance. If it’s not a genocide, she never tells us why not.

    Americans are beginning to question our unconditional support for Israel. It’s high time.

    Wrap-Up

    While I don’t agree with Sinema on everything, I think we need more people like her in politics. She thinks for herself and doesn’t demonize the other side.

    One party demonizing the other is how democracies end. If the other party isn’t merely wrong but dangerous, you’re justified in subverting democracy to stop them.

    That way of thinking is hurting America. I hope to see more politicians like Sinema challenge it.

    What did you think of Sinema’s talk?

    More on politics:

    Ukraine, China and the Deep State: Mearsheimer and Sachs at the All-In Summit

    “Let’s Wait Until After the Election to Run This”: Bari Weiss at the All-In Summit

    Kamala’s Extreme Agenda

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • The $100 Billion CEO: Nikesh Arora at the All-In Summit

    At $111 billion, Palo Alto Networks is one of the most valuable companies in tech. In a conversation at the All-In Summit, CEO Nikesh Arora tells us why cybersecurity is more important than ever, what it was like working for Masa, and more!

    Protecting the Systems We Rely On

    “Cybersecurity offense is way easier than defense.”

    Nikesh Arora

    Hackers used to try to compromise an individual. Can we get Francis to click on this fishy link?

    Now, they go straight to the source. Instead of going after Francis, they just hack the Microsoft Exchange email server that Francis and 1,000 others use.

    Hacking has become a huge business. Victims paid $2 billion in ransomware payments last year alone.

    AI will make it easier than ever before to compromise systems. LLM’s are better at coding than anything else, and hacking is largely a matter of code.

    To stop the hackers, Palo Alto Networks buys up the best cybersecurity companies it can find. Then, it offers their products to its huge customer base.

    This makes it easy for a customer to get all the best cybersecurity software in one place.

    The roll-up approach is great for customers, great for Palo Alto Networks, and great for the startups they buy. Everyone wins.

    This is why Lina Khan needs to stop blocking M&A. These transactions benefit everyone!

    Investing with Masa

    “You’re spending too much time on the mistake.”

    Masayoshi Son

    Before becoming CEO of Palo Alto Networks, Arora worked for billionaire investor Masayoshi Son. Son is known for placing giant bets, including an $11.5 billion investment in the failed office sharing startup WeWork.

    Son makes big bets, but he’s also brutal about writing off the losers.

    When Arora was trying to save a bad investment, Son told him not to bother. His time would be better spent with the winners.

    I disagree with Son completely here.

    First off, we made a commitment to the founder. That commitment isn’t just for the winners.

    What’s more, in my experience, the best founders don’t need much help. Investors mostly get in the way.

    We have a better chance of improving the outcome by focusing on the stragglers.

    Some VC’s are even harsher than Son. I’ve heard stories of investors leaving the company’s board and telling the founder not to contact them.

    I find that repulsive.

    This person is struggling, and they need you! Maybe you can’t offer them more capital, but you can sit down and listen.

    Son can take his approach. I and other investors like me will take ours.

    Founders can choose who they want to work with.

    Wrap-Up

    I find Arora’s career fascinating. Very few people have gone from VC to top tier CEO.

    Arora is tough, no-nonsense, and low key. He wears a company shirt onstage, just like a rank and file employee.

    In a world of flamboyant CEO’s, Arora is a breath of fresh air.

    What did you think of Arora’s talk?

    More on tech:

    Two Million Miles Without a Fatality: Waymo’s CEO at the All-In Summit

    The Quarter Trillion Dollar Bet: Benioff at the All-In Summit

    Backing One of the World’s Fastest Growing Startups | The Mr. Bray Labs Podcast

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Backing One of the World’s Fastest Growing Startups | The Mr. Bray Labs Podcast

    What do angel investors actually do? What’s it like meeting one of the best early stage founders in the world?

    I dug into that and more with Jesse Bray recently on his podcast, Mr. Bray Labs! Here are some of my favorite moments:

    4:32: What angel investors actually do.

    6:34: Backing one of the fastest growing startups of all time: the story of Rilla.

    15:50: Leaving the corporate world and going out on my own.

    19:19: What happens when my 10 year angel investing experiment ends.

    23:32: My advice for finding success while having fun.

    I had a great time chatting with Jesse! He’s a gracious host and his animations make the podcast even more fun.

    Stay tuned for a part 2 coming next week!

    What did you think of our chat? What should we cover next time?

    More on tech:

    Two Million Miles Without a Fatality: Waymo’s CEO at the All-In Summit

    The Quarter Trillion Dollar Bet: Benioff at the All-In Summit

    Small Investors Lead to Big Investors

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • “Let’s Wait Until After the Election to Run This”: Bari Weiss at the All-In Summit

    “Let’s wait until after the election to run this.”

    That was a New York Times editor, burying a story about riots in Kenosha. He was afraid the report could hurt Joe Biden.

    It’s bias like that which led Bari Weiss to leave the Times and start her own site, The Free Press.

    In a frank conversation at the All-In Summit, Weiss explains how the media became left-wing advocates and what she’s doing to get back to facts.

    Mainstream Media Is Preaching to the Choir

    Mainstream media used to make its money from advertising. Big advertisers like Procter & Gamble spent a fortune on ads. Even more poured in from the classifieds.

    Today, advertising has moved online. The classifieds are dead, replaced by Craigslist.

    This cost the media a fortune in revenue.

    Papers like the Times and The Washington Post found a new model: charge readers. Both have major subscription businesses.

    But when you rely on subscriptions, you have an incentive to tell readers what they want to hear. And for papers like the Times, the readers want to hear a left-wing message.

    If you run anything that challenges that worldview, people will cancel their subscriptions.

    It’s a viable economic model. But it’s not a viable model for finding facts.

    Building a New Type of News Organization

    Weiss left the Times in 2020. In 2022, she launched The Free Press.

    Weiss’s goal with The Free Press is to report facts. Not opinions, not political talking points.

    I think there’s a huge appetite for this. And sure enough, The Free Press has grown substantially, employing 50 people today.

    However, Weiss is subject to the same incentives as big media orgs like the Times. Much of The Free Press’s revenue comes from subscriptions.

    Its coverage tends to question left-wing ideas like giving sex changes to children. If Weiss reported a story that could be seen as favorable to the far left, subscribers might flee.

    For now, The Free Press seems pretty straight down the middle. I hope it can stay that way.

    How Sacks Read the News

    Sacks shares Weiss’s concerns about media bias. And he offers a nice little trick to figure out who to listen to.

    Sacks looks at how well a journalist predicts the future. If they do it well, he pays more attention to them. If they don’t, he unfollows them.

    I love this approach!

    Too often, we accord respect to any talking head. I often wonder, do these people actually know any more than I do?

    Here’s how I find facts: stick to wire services and financial publications.

    Wire services like AP aren’t supported by subscribers. And financial publications like Bloomberg or The Wall Street Journal have a stronger incentive than most to get facts straight. Their readers need accurate information on which to trade!

    Wrap-Up

    I’m glad that someone from inside the media is speaking out. A lot of what I see is blatantly biased to the left.

    I stopped reading the Times years ago. And NPR, I’m tellin’ ya, you’re on thin ice.

    I hope that journalists start more media organizations like The Free Press. A lot of Americans want the facts, no matter what the Times may think.

    How do you find the best news?

    Have a great weekend, everyone!

    More on the All-In Summit:

    Ukraine, China and the Deep State: Mearsheimer and Sachs at the All-In Summit

    Peter Thiel at the All-In Summit
    Two Million Miles Without a Fatality: Waymo’s CEO at the All-In Summit

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Two Million Miles Without a Fatality: Waymo’s CEO at the All-In Summit

    “Most people come because they have lost someone.”

    That’s Waymo Co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana. At the All-In Summit, she explains how her company created its incredible autonomous driving system and where they’re headed next.

    The Most Exciting Tech in the World Today

    Don’t get me wrong, I love Elon’s rockets. But I’m not going to ride in a rocket any time soon.

    So for me, self-driving cars are the coolest tech around today. I can’t wait to ride in a Waymo!

    One of Mawakana’s goals is to open up mobility for people who can’t drive. This is something my mom and I have dreamed of since I was a kid.

    My mom was born blind in one eye, which makes driving impossible. For a long time, we relied on buses and the one rotten cab company in the small town where I grew up.

    The arrival of Uber and Instacart changed my mom’s life. But a self-driving car would be even better!

    In time, she’ll be able to buy a car equipped with Waymo’s self-driving tech. The company eventually plans to offer its technology in any car you like.

    This means coming and going as she pleases, like anyone else. And I can finally get the self-driving, matte black Cybertruck of my dreams!

    But Is It Safe?

    The big barrier to autonomous driving is safety. Can we trust a computer with our lives?

    So far, Waymo has driven about 2 million miles without a single fatality. But that’s not enough to prove it’s safer than a human driver.

    There are around 1.33 traffic fatalities for every 100 million miles driven overall. So, Waymo will need to do several orders of magnitude more rides before we know for sure it’s safe.

    However, people who have ridden in Waymo’s say the autonomous driver is incredible. It’s unfailingly safe and defensive.

    This is a lot more than I can say for some of the Ubers I’ve taken!

    Why Waymo Can Win

    Waymo offers a chance to end traffic deaths. For many Waymo employees, it’s a way to prevent what happened to their family from happening to someone else.

    These are highly talented engineers. They could be at Facebook, Apple, wherever.

    But those companies don’t share Waymo’s mission.

    With employees that motivated, Waymo can win the self-driving race. Indeed, they’re the only company doing 100% autonomous rides on public roads, 24/7.

    If Waymo does as well as I think it will, it could be a trillion dollar, standalone company.

    Wrap-Up

    Growing up with a mom who can’t drive, I’ve been a pedestrian all my life. I’ve been hit by an SUV and had countless close calls, including one just this Sunday.

    Human drivers are horrible. They’re distracted, aggressive and drunk.

    I hope that in the future, no human drives a car. I’ll take my chances with the robots any day.

    What do you think of Waymo’s robot cars?

    More on tech:

    Watch Elon Drive Tesla’s Amazing New Autopilot
    Autonomous Driving in Central London

    Three Technologies That Would Change Everything

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • The Quarter Trillion Dollar Bet: Benioff at the All-In Summit

    At $242 billion, Salesforce is one of the largest software companies on earth. Founder Marc Benioff is betting its future on a single product.

    That product is called Agentforce. In a conversation with David Sacks at the All-In Summit, Benioff explains why this new AI tool is the greatest opportunity in his career.

    Making AI Reliable

    Benioff boasts that Agentforce is 90-95% reliable. He’s purged most hallucinations from the model, a task that has eluded other AI companies.

    Kaiser Permanente is using Agentforce to schedule patient appointments and analyze medical records. So far, the results have been encouraging.

    If Kaiser can use AI successfully, any organization can.

    Kaiser is a huge enterprise chock full of the most sensitive data on earth. Leadership can be a little conservative, with good reason.

    I actually did some work for Kaiser in the mid 2000’s when I was at Epic, the medical software company. The folks who worked at Kaiser were kind and dedicated.

    I’m very happy to see them master this new technology. It just might be the efficiency boost healthcare has needed for decades.

    How Agentforce Works

    Agentforce doesn’t just push queries to OpenAI. Salesforce has created its own models and Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) techniques to produce more accurate outputs.

    Agentforce doesn’t just answer questions. It does tasks like writing documents and handling e-commerce returns.

    Chatbots to replace Google are great — I use Perplexity all the time. But AI tools that can actually do my tasks for me will have a way bigger impact.

    Yesterday, I researched some startups and booked a trip home for Christmas. In time, AI may do those tasks for me, letting me just sign off on the results.

    Wrap-Up

    For 20 years, much of SaaS has been glorified spreadsheets. With Agentforce, Benioff is building something truly different.

    This is software that takes the boring parts of our jobs and automates them. We keep the creative and interesting pieces — silicon does the rest.

    We spend half our waking hours at work. AI can make that time more efficient, making us richer. It can also make it a lot more fun.

    I can’t wait to see what Benioff cooks up next!

    How do you think AI will affect SaaS?

    “This is the greatest opportunity in the history of enterprise software…”

    More on tech:

    Peter Thiel at the All-In Summit

    Elon at the All-In Summit

    What Happens in an Acquihire?

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Ukraine, China and the Deep State: Mearsheimer and Sachs at the All-In Summit

    “I deeply believe we’re close to nuclear war.”

    That’s Jeffrey Sachs at the All-In Summit. In a fascinating panel, he and John Mearsheimer break down the war in Ukraine, the rise of China and why the United States can’t seem to stay out of war.

    The Deep State Uniparty

    “There’s one deep state party…”

    Jeffrey Sachs

    The Iraq War defined my youth. After freshman year, my college roommate went to fight. I stayed home.

    Thankfully, he came back okay.

    The left criticized Bush for getting us into war. But they were right there with him, voting to authorize the war by huge margins.

    Both parties agree on war because of the “deep state,” according to Sachs and Mearsheimer.

    When a president wins election, a group of wise men take him aside. They explain how the world “really works.”

    And time after time, the president caves.

    Trump may be the one man who can change that. For all his faults, he questions the Washington war consensus.

    I only hope he has a chance to crush the deep state once and for all.

    Risking World War III in Ukraine

    “My view is a little bit of prudence could save the whole planet.”

    Jeffrey Sachs

    As I write this, American weapons are being used to invade Russia. Bit by bit, we keep escalating this conflict.

    We don’t know where Russia’s red line is. But once we cross it, it may be too late.

    We are risking a nuclear war that could destroy human civilization completely.

    Biden justifies this war by saying that Russia is a threat to all of Europe, and to the United States.

    But as Mearsheimer and Sachs point out, Russia is a weak country. They have thousands of nukes, but not much else.

    Russia has barely been able to take a sliver of Ukraine after 2.5 years. Meanwhile, it’s losing its own territory to the Ukrainians!

    If we pull out of Ukraine, America won’t be under threat. In fact, we’ll be safer because Russia will no longer feel the need to resort to nukes.

    The China Threat

    “The South China sea is a very dangerous place. We could wind up in a war for sure.”

    John Mearsheimer

    When we look to Asia, we usually expect a war over Taiwan. But Mearsheimer says that a war in the South China Sea is far more likely.

    China’s navy routinely harasses ships from the Philippines and other nearby countries. China claims sovereignty over almost the entire sea, right up to the coastlines of several other countries.

    I don’t think it’s worth going to war over the Philippines. However, we may be able to use our navy to promote freedom of navigation in the area without getting into a full-scale conflict.

    Meanwhile, China’s provocations are turning the rest of Asia against China. This plays right into our hands.

    Wrap-Up

    I loved hearing Mearsheimer and Sachs’s perspective. They’re not idealists talking about “spreading democracy.” They see the world for what it is, and try to find ways for America to prosper in it.

    We prosper when we defend our territory and live in peace. That’s the future I want to see.

    What do you think of relations with Russia and China?

    More on world events:

    Vance at the All-In Summit

    Nuclear War: A Scenario

    Kamala’s Extreme Agenda

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

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  • Peter Thiel at the All-In Summit

    “I keep thinking that AI in 2023, 2024 is like the internet in 1999.”

    That’s Peter Thiel at the All-In Summit. In a frank conversation with the besties, Thiel digs into the election, our confrontation with China, and the future of AI.

    The Election

    Silicon Valley has shifted rightward in recent years. Thiel was well ahead of the curve, backing Trump in 2016. And as usual, he has a contrarian take.

    Despite media predictions, Thiel thinks the election will not be close. He points out that most presidential elections break decisively one way or another.

    Nate Silver is predicting a decisive win as well. He has Trump up by double digits in his forecast.

    Time will tell who’s right.

    The Showdown with China

    Whoever wins the election will face China’s Xi Jinping.

    China has held more and more drills near Taiwan since the spring. Thiel thinks that China will eventually try to take Taiwan.

    If it does, Thiel is against the US joining the war.

    Such a conflict could spiral into World War III. Thiel thinks a war over Taiwan just isn’t worth it, and I agree.

    What we need most from Taiwan is advanced chips. But we can learn to make them ourselves. In fact, we’re already beginning to do so.

    The Future of AI

    Playing with ChatGPT in the fall of 2022 reminded me of using the first search engines in the mid 90’s. Thiel’s analogy with the early internet is spot on.

    Despite all AI can do, Thiel doesn’t think it will cause widespread unemployment. After all, the Industrial Revolution didn’t put humans out of work.

    Thiel is right on the money here.

    Human creativity is limitless. We will create new jobs we cannot imagine today.

    When I was a kid, there were no yoga instructors, spinning coaches, or Tik Tokers. Today, countless people are making their living in those fields.

    Human innovation is not going to stop.

    The Higher Education Bubble

    If the jobs of the future will be a lot different from today, how should young people prepare?

    Thiel is skeptical of college. In 2011, he started the Thiel Fellowship, a program that gives $100,000 to talented kids to skip college.

    Thiel notes that student debt has spiraled out of control, reaching nearly $2 trillion. The median 2009 graduate actually had more debt 12 years later, held back by a weak job market and high interest rates.

    I think college is worthwhile, especially if you’re not sure what you want to do. But avoid student debt!

    Get scholarships and consider state school. Major in STEM.

    When it comes to the job market, a Comp Sci major with a 3.9 from Rutgers will beat a theater major from Brown any day.

    Wrap-Up

    Thiel has a way of predicting the future. And although his delivery is restrained, he actually paints a very bright future for the United States.

    He sees us decoupling from China and reaping massive benefits from AI. The future America will stand atop the technological heap, proud and alone.

    What do you think of Thiel’s talk?

    More on tech:

    Elon at the All-In Summit

    Travis Kalanick at the All-In Summit

    Small Investors Lead to Big Investors

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