Tremendous

An angel investor's take on life and business

  • Cybercabs, Androids and Robovans, Oh My!

    “We’ll see if this works.”

    Elon Musk

    Last night, Elon took the stage and unveiled two of the most amazing new products I’ve ever seen: the Cybercab and the Robovan. Our cities are about to look very different.

    ‘What the Heck Is That?’

    “You see a lot of sci-fi movies where the future is dark, dismal. It’s not a future you want to be in. We want to have a fun exciting future that, if you could look in a crystal ball and see the future, you’d be like, ‘Yes, I wish I could be there now.’” – Elon Musk

    At first, I thought it was a Cybertruck. But as Elon pulled up, you could see it was something very different: the new Cybercab. This is the first vehicle I’ve ever seen with no steering wheel.

    The Cybercab will provide fully autonomous taxi rides. Elon plans to have it available as soon as 2026.

    With no human driver, the rides will be dirt cheap. Elon projects a price of around 30-40 cents a mile.

    With the short, urban rides I take, I could go from paying $10 to $1. Unbelievable. Meanwhile, longer trips would become affordable.

    If you want to buy your own Cybercab, they won’t cost much:

    “We expect the cost to be below $30,000.”

    That’s incredible. A fully autonomous vehicle for the price of a Toyota Camry.

    This thing will take over the market.

    A Bus Unlike Any You’ve Ever Seen

    But what stole the show was another new vehicle: the Robovan.

    “Can you imagine going down the streets and you see this coming towards you? That’d be sick!”

    The Robovan can seat 20 people. It can be used for people or cargo. It has no driver or even visible wheels.

    I’ve never seen anything like it in my entire life.

    Nobody really wants to ride the bus. But who won’t want to ride in this?

    I can’t tell you how much this hits home for me. I’ve taken the bus since I was a little boy, all the way through to today.

    Growing up in Northern Wisconsin, we often waited an hour or more in deep snow, wondering where the bus was. Once we got on, it was slow, smelly, and stopped running at 6 o’clock.

    If I get to ride in a Robovan before I die, I’ll lose it! And it could be available in just a few years.

    Transportation in the Robovan will be even cheaper than the Cybercab — 5 to 10 cents a mile, by Elon’s estimate.

    Rock, Paper, Scissors

    If that wasn’t enough for you, Elon also showed off the latest Optimus robot.

    He makes an interesting point: the motors, AI systems and batteries in the cars are the same ones he uses in the Optimus. The cars are already out there in the millions, and soon Optimus will be too.

    The Optimus is not demo-ware. Elon let them loose in the crowd.

    They played rock, paper scissors with guests and even served drinks! And when they danced, they did the robot.

    “I think this will be the biggest product ever, of any kind.”

    With Optimus in the home doing housework and keeping us company, and more of them in factories and on farms, I don’t doubt Elon is right.

    AI will give us infinite human intelligence. Optimus will give us infinite human labor.

    The future will be unlike anything we’ve ever seen. It will be awesome.

    “The cost of products and services will decline dramatically and basically anyone will be able to have any products and services they want. It will be an age of abundance the likes of which almost no one has envisioned.”

    Wrap-Up

    This is the wildest demo I’ve ever seen, from any company. I cannot wait to step into a Robovan and shake an Optimus’ hand.

    What do you think of the Tesla demo?

    What a way to head into the weekend!

    There will be no blog on Monday for Columbus Day. Have a great weekend, guys!

    P.S. The demo starts at the 52 minute mark in the video, if you want to watch it yourself…which I highly recommend!

    More on tech:

    Elon at the All-In Summit

    Two Million Miles Without a Fatality: Waymo’s CEO at the All-In Summit

    Climb, Crawl, Fly, Swim: Jake Loosararian at the All-In Summit

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Zero Fail: The Rise and Fall of the Secret Service

    Two men tried to kill President Trump within 64 days. How could the Secret Service let this happen?

    The decline of this once respected agency is the focus of Carol Leonnig’s 2021 book Zero Fail: The Rise and Fall of the Secret Service. I just finished it, and let me tell you, the problems are way worse than I ever imagined.

    A History of Failure

    “What the f— is wrong with you guys?” – Donald Trump

    President Trump uttered those words when two agents were caught taking selfies with his sleeping grandson. While this is invasive and totally unprofessional, it’s the least of the Service’s misdeeds.

    In recent years, we have repeatedly come close to presidents being assassinated. These stories have been little reported in the media.

    In 2014, a man jumped the White House fence and made it all the way to the foot of the stairs to the president’s private residence. He was armed with a knife.

    Everyone was expecting a dog to stop him. But the dog was inside a car taking a nap!

    You can’t make this stuff up.

    President Obama didn’t fire the director, Julia Pierson, after this incident. That failure in leadership could have cost him his life — thank God it didn’t.

    This wasn’t the first time in recent years that the Agency allowed an attack on the White House.

    In 2011, a gunman fired on the White House multiple times with an assault rifle. The Agency didn’t even realize there were bullets lodged in the building until days later.

    A Frathouse Culture

    You expect Secret Service agents to be stone faced g-men. But their behavior is more like frat brothers in Cancun.

    On a presidential trip to Cartagena, Colombia during the Obama administration, multiple agents were caught with prostitutes in their hotel rooms. One of the women even showed up in a government database as a possible cartel operative.

    Agents repeated these hijinks all over the world. If the Russian or Chinese security agencies haven’t put a beautiful female spy in front of these men, somebody’s not doing their job over there.

    This unprofessional culture is nothing new.

    Several agents were out drinking the night before John F. Kennedy was assassinated. Had they been sharper that day, they might have prevented it.

    Whenever the Service discovers these screw-ups, the punishment tends to be a slap on the wrist.

    Underfunded, Understaffed, and Without a Clear Mission

    When we think of the Secret Service, we think of guys in dark suits standing around the president. But most agents don’t do that.

    The Service has countless missions. It protects foreign leaders, handles financial fraud, helps police find missing kids, and researches traits of school shooters to help communities.

    Those are all worthy goals. But if there’s one thing I’ve learned in business, it’s this: when you have 5 priorities, you have none.

    The Service should focus on protecting the president, top administration officials, and their families. That’s it.

    Despite all those different jobs, the Service has been underfunded for generations. Security details are understaffed, equipment is outdated, and overworked agents quit regularly.

    Wrap-Up

    The Secret Service has no leadership and no clue. The fact that more presidents haven’t been assassinated is the best evidence I know of for God’s providence.

    The Service needs one mission and enough funding to accomplish it. And it needs strong leadership that doesn’t make excuses for failure.

    Let’s do it now, before we lose another president.

    What do you think of the Secret Service?

    More on politics:

    Elon in Butler, PA

    Kamala’s Extreme Agenda

    Vance at the All-In Summit

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • How Often Do Founders Actually Send Updates?

    Founders often tell you they’re going to send monthly updates, but how often do they really do it? Today, I did a review of my entire portfolio to answer that question. Here’s what I found…

    A Peak Inside My Portfolio

    • 31 names in the portfolio total
    • 28 of those investments are active (the others have exited)
    • 2 founders said upfront that they are not doing updates. I invested knowing that, so I am not expecting anything from them.
    • 2 investments were made in the last 3 months. Those rounds are still closing, so I don’t expect an update yet.

    That leaves 24 active investments that should be sending updates. So, did they do it?

    • 20 of 24 have sent an update in September or October
    • 2 sent updates in August
    • 1 sent an update in April
    • Only 1 company has not sent an update this entire year. I just contacted them to see what’s new.

    Amazing job, founders! 20/24, or 83% of companies are right on time with their updates. Most of those that are behind are pretty close.

    Given how much work it is to run a company, that’s incredibly impressive!

    Do Frequent Updates Correlate with Success?

    I’ve heard a ton of investors say that the more frequent the updates, the more successful the company. But from what I’ve seen, that is not true.

    The results are bimodal. If you aren’t hearing from a company, it’s either a likely 0 or a huge success.

    My most successful investment is a SaaS startup I backed at pre-seed that hit $17 million ARR in less than two years. I rarely hear from them.

    And guess what — I don’t care! I’m never going to bother these guys for an update.

    By contrast, the company I have yet to hear from this year is probably about to go out of business, if it hasn’t already.

    What Should You Do if You Don’t Get an Update?

    “You are 11 hours late on your update! How dare you?! I gave you money!” Yeah, not that.

    I never contact a company for an update unless I have not heard from them in 9 months or more. Running a company is hard. If a founder commits to monthly updates, I’m happy if I get 4 a year.

    After 9 months, I send a very polite message:

    “Hi Jim!

    Did I miss your monthly update? I’m not seeing one since December 2023.

    Hope all’s well with you!

    Best,

    F”

    Notice how I put the blame on myself. Maybe my spam filter zapped their message or it got lost in an avalanche of ads.

    If I still don’t hear for another few weeks, I’ll send another message.
    The key is to be nice. These folks are working hard for you, and they don’t always have time to get the update in.

    What Should Be in My Update?

    Some founders miss updates because they think an update has to be an elaborate presentation. Not so.

    Here’s what an investor update should look like:

    “Dear Uber Investors,

    We had another great month! Big increase in sign-ups is driving revenue.

    Sept Revenue: $42,000 (+ 35%)
    Burn: $30,000
    Cash in Bank: $1,200,000
    Runway: 40 months

    Highlights:

    • Signups doubled this month to 5,200
    • NYC launched!

    Lowlights:

    • Key engineer left, working on replacement

    Asks:

    • Intros to excellent engineers for our open position
    • Intros to growth hackers with marketplace experience

    Shoutouts:

    • Francis Santora for introducing us to Sequoia, Mike Michaels for intro to growth hacker

    See you next month!

    Travis”

    It really is that simple. Your update should be brief and mostly numbers.

    You will want these key figures for your own use anyway. You may as well share them with your investors too.

    And if they’re bad, don’t worry. Your investors may be able to help!

    Wrap-Up

    I’m surprised at how founders are so on top of their updates! I’m also really impressed.

    These are some of the busiest people in the world. And let’s be honest, sending the investor update isn’t their highest priority task.

    If you’re running a little (or a lot) late on your update, write up a little note today! Your investors will love to hear from you.

    And if you’re an investor, reply to the updates! Most investors don’t, and it’s an easy way to encourage a founder and show you care.

    What do you think…do updates correlate with success?

    More on tech:

    Small Investors Lead to Big Investors

    How I Make Sure I’m Never Late to Meet a Founder

    Talking Investment Red Flags on the Mr. Bray Labs Podcast

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Eternal Life in a Pill: Juan Carlos Belmonte at the All-In Summit

    https://twitter.com/theallinpod/status/1841226529277399184

    “Can we rejuvenate an organism?”

    No one knows for sure, but Juan Carlos Belmonte is getting close.

    In a fascinating talk at the All-In Summit, Belmonte explains how he’s using cellular reprogramming to reverse aging in mice and, perhaps one day, us.

    Why We Age

    After age 40, the likelihood of death skyrockets.

    It barely matters what cause of death we look at. All the curves slope upward violently around that age — which is right around the age I am now.

    As we age, our cells become less able to repair themselves. Eventually, the damage becomes more than we can bear, and we die.

    But Belmonte, a researcher at the Salk Institute and Altos Labs, thinks he has the solution.

    How Yamanaka Factors Could Reverse Aging

    Belmonte gives short pulses of Yamanaka factors to cells. These pulses change the epigenome, or the way genes express themselves. They don’t change our actual DNA.

    These short pulses can rejuvenate cells.

    So far, Altos Labs has succeeded in reversing aging in countless mouse models: liver, kidneys, brain, muscle tissue, and skin. They’re also studying the use of metformin in monkeys to restore cognitive function in elderly animals and increase lifespan.

    Rejuvenating Humans

    Helping mice live longer is impressive. But when you get to monkeys, you’re incredibly close to being able to treat a human.

    Human beings are where Belmonte is headed next. His team is working on rejuvenating human cells in vitro, or in a petri dish.

    Next, he plans to work on rejuvenating organs that have been donated. Sometimes, those organs aren’t in good enough condition to be transplanted. But if Belmonte can reprogram them, surgeons may be able to use them.

    In vitro studies and rejuvenating organs for transplant will be incredible proofs of concept. And since they pose no danger to humans, they’re a clever way to test Altos’ technology.

    When Is the Pill Coming?

    But of course, we all have one question: how long until I can take a pill and be young again?

    Belmonte’s answer shocked me:

    “I feel the next decade probably many of these discoveries, with the caveat that it’s a mouse and a mouse is not a human, might be translated to humans.”

    Ten years. That’s nothing!

    In a decade, we could be taking pills to live longer and healthier. Even if he’s wrong and it takes 20 or 30, it will still be the greatest achievement ever made by human beings.

    And If You Don’t Want to Wait…

    In the mean time, there are ways we can rejuvenate our own cells. And they don’t take a scientific breakthrough.

    Exercise causes cellular changes very similar to short pulses of Yamanaka factors. You can bet I’ll be hopping on my exercise bike in a bit.

    Yamanaka here I come!

    Wrap-Up

    I think it’s wonderful that we have a society that will give billions of dollars to a guy like Belmonte and say “Give it a shot!” Even if he fails, one of the many other teams working on longevity will surely crack the code.

    We might live much longer than we ever imagined. 120 years, 180, who knows.

    I’m here for it!

    What did you think of Belmonte’s talk?

    More on tech:

    Elon at the All-In Summit

    Small Investors Lead to Big Investors

    Climb, Crawl, Fly, Swim: Jake Loosararian at the All-In Summit

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Elon in Butler, PA

    https://youtu.be/Asoq00GQ3BA?feature=shared”

    “The true test of someone’s character is how they behave under fire.”

    Elon Musk

    Exactly 12 weeks before Elon’s speech, a deranged man shot President Trump. In the same spot in Butler, PA, Elon told us why he’s supporting Trump in his bid to return to the White House.

    “This is no ordinary election. The other side wants to take away your freedom of speech. They want to take away your right to bear arms. They want to take away your right to vote, effectively.” – Elon Musk

    Musk’s words might sound like an exaggeration. But keep in mind that Kamala Harris’ running mate, Tim Walz, has said “there’s no guarantee to free speech on misinformation or hate speech…”

    Who decides what is hate speech? And if misinformation were illegal, who decides what is true?

    Perhaps a Ministry of Truth can tell us. That’s how it worked in Orwell’s 1984.

    I thought that was just fiction. But maybe it’s about to become a reality.

    The extreme left has also tried hard to keep Trump off the ballot, denying Americans a choice in who governs us. It’s only because of the brave Supreme Court that Trump is even on the ballot in Colorado, Illinois, Maine and several other states.

    Whichever candidate we prefer, I hope we can all agree that Americans should be free to speak their mind and free to vote for who they choose. At the most basic level, that’s what America is about.

    But despite appearing at a Trump rally, most of Elon’s speech wasn’t about supporting Donald Trump. It was about making sure to vote, and making sure others do as well.

    “Be a pest to everyone you know, people on the street, everywhere.” – Elon Musk

    Although his speech lasted a mere six minutes, Elon repeated this point over and over. It’s clear how important he thinks this election is.

    “This is a must-win situation.” – Elon Musk

    Trump is clearly delighted to see Elon. He connects Elon’s success to his plans for the country:

    “We’re going to have the American dream so every kid in your family is gonna grow up and say ‘I wanna be like Elon Musk. I wanna have $200 billion in cash.’” – Donald Trump

    It makes me happy to see a candidate who celebrates success in business. Whenever Harris mentions the successful, all she ever talks about is the need for them to “pay their fair share,” whatever that is.

    It was wonderful to see President Trump return to Butler. He returned full of life, the best possible repudiation of that cowardly assassin.

    And he returned with a clear message:

    “We will make America great again!”

    Donald Trump

    What did you think of the return to Butler?

    More on the election:

    Kamala’s Extreme Agenda

    How Kamala’s Unrealized Gains Tax Will Destroy the Economy

    Vance at the All-In Summit

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Climb, Crawl, Fly, Swim: Jake Loosararian at the All-In Summit

    How do you think the Air Force inspects nuclear missile silos? A cool green laser, or maybe some infrared goggles?

    Well, until recently, they did it like this:

    “…Joe on a rope with a hammer, he was listening to the sound that the silos made when he hit it.”

    That’s Jake Loosararian, Founder & CEO of Gecko Robotics. At the All-In Summit, Jake tells the story of how Gecko Robotics went from his dorm room to managing over 500,000 pieces of infrastructure around the world.

    Founding Gecko Robotics

    Jake started building robots in his dorm room. In 2016, he founded Gecko Robotics.

    For 3 years, he bootstrapped the company. He spent every penny he had and slept on his friend’s floor to save on rent.

    Not many founders care this much about what they’re doing. When you meet one that does, you want to give him money and get out of his way!

    That’s exactly what Y Combinator did. Today, Gecko is valued at $600 million.

    Investors worried that hardware would be difficult to scale and capital intensive. But as the robots came together, they provided a moat against competition. No one else had the data those robots could provide.

    Fixing the Built World

    Gecko’s robots specialize in inspecting infrastructure. Jake’s robots crawl over oil tanks and fly under bridges, looking for defects.

    Jake’s robots can walk, climb, fly or swim anywhere. Wherever they go, they gather data.

    Then, Gecko’s software crunches those numbers to determine what maintenance is needed and when.

    Sending humans to inspect infrastructure is dangerous. This is a job best left to the bots.

    Defending America

    Some of the most exciting applications for Gecko are in defense. The military has untold billions of dollars worth of assets, many of them aging and desperately in need of maintenance.

    The procedures before Gecko were laughable.

    Men laying on skateboards inspected ships for corrosion. A man with a hammer checked our nuclear missile silos.

    How did we ever allow things to get so messed up?

    Today, Jake’s robots are inspecting these silos and ships. There will be countless more defense applications, from tanks to aircraft.

    In order to defend ourselves, our equipment has to be in ship shape. Jake’s robots are making sure we’re ready at all times.

    What Else Can These Robots Do?

    The port strike seems to be resolved — for now. But we’re vulnerable to another strike at any time. And our ports remain way behind the rest of the world, totally reliant on human labor.

    I’d love to see these robots unleashed on the ports. They could inspect infrastructure to make sure it’s working properly. Perhaps they could even move cargo.

    Jake confirms that Gecko’s robots could be used in ports, and I’m excited to see it happen!

    Wrap-Up

    As an investor, Jake is exactly the kind of founder I want to back. He cares so much about what he’s doing that he was willing to live on next to nothing for years to make it happen.

    I hope to see Gecko’s robots everywhere in the future, making sure our towns are safe and our military is ready for anything.

    What did you think of Jake’s talk?

    Have a great weekend, everybody!

    More on tech:

    How to End the Port Strike
    From $50 Million to $50 Billion: Thomas Laffont at the All-In Summit

    Talking Investment Red Flags on the Mr. Bray Labs Podcast

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • How to End the Port Strike

    A Bentley driving thug with possible mafia ties is holding America hostage with a port strike. We can automate our ports within 5 years and solve this problem once and for all. Here’s how to do it…

    How Ports Work

    Today, our ports require a ton of labor.

    Humans onsite move containers (also known as TEU’s) off ships using giant gantry cranes. Cranes put the TEU’s onto trucks or trains. If they’re not ready to go yet, they stack them onsite temporarily.

    Each crane has multiple operators. Every truck has a human driver.

    At American ports, little has changed since I was a boy. But in the rest of the world, ports look very different.

    Getting to Rotterdam

    The Port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands is one of the largest ports on earth. It’s also one of the most highly automated.

    Nearly everything at the port is done by machines. Some humans are required to operate the port, but they sit comfortably in offices offsite.

    The labor savings are considerable. The port can also handle more cargo faster.

    Cost and Timeline

    It took about 5 years to automate the Port of Rotterdam.

    The project began in 2010 and was largely complete by 2015. It cost around $500 million.

    The biggest port affected by the current strike is the Port of New York and New Jersey, just a few miles from where I sit. It handles around 8 million TEU’s a year versus about 13 million at Rotterdam.

    Given its smaller size, we should be able to automate the Port of NY/NJ in under 5 years for under a billion dollars. Since other US ports are almost all smaller, we should be able to do those even faster and cheaper.

    And since the humans in automated ports are all in offices, we can just as easily hire people in Manila. This could save even more money.

    What’s more, new technologies are available today that didn’t exist in 2010. Robotics companies like Gecko Robotics could create systems to make us even more efficient than Rotterdam.

    I spoke with Founder & CEO Jake Loosararian on Twitter yesterday. He confirmed that Gecko’s robots could be used at the ports.

    These robots are incredible. Here’s a video of some of them at work:

    Busting a Thuggish Union

    But what about the union? To hell with them.

    These people make six figures and they want to hold Americans hostage for more? If they get the giant wage increases they want, the public will pay more for everything. Most people already make far less money than these dock workers.

    Ronald Reagan busted the air traffic controllers union in 1981. The situation was similar — highly paid workers controlling critical infrastructure were holding the nation hostage.

    The President should tell the dock workers to return to work within 24 hours. If they do not, their resignation is accepted.

    While we work on automating the ports, we can hire replacement workers to staff them. We can also call on our military to fill jobs as necessary.

    Wrap-Up

    No one gets to hold America hostage. Not dock workers, not anyone.

    For too long, we’ve let our ports fall behind technologically. The union is against automation, and we’ve caved every step of the way.

    No more. Throw them off the property, automate it, and solve this problem once and for all.

    What do you think of the port strike?

    More on tech:

    Elon at the All-In Summit

    How AI Will Gut Call Centers

    Request for Startups

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Talking Investment Red Flags on the Mr. Bray Labs Podcast

    I once met a founder who went into $700,000 of debt for his startup. On the Mr. Bray Labs podcast, I dug into that and other crazy stories I’ve seen in my 3.5 years investing in startups.

    Here are some of my favorite moments from the Part 2 with Jesse:

    5:23: Why a technical team is a must.

    10:22: Why I’m not interested in ‘early exits’.

    13:57: How to incorporate your startup properly.

    17:25: The biggest mistake I’ve made as an angel.

    24:30: When a founder went over $700,000 into debt for his startup.

    30:50: How new angels lose a fortune.

    38:34: The startups I want to meet.

    What are the wildest things you’ve seen in startupland?

    More on tech:

    Backing One of the World’s Fastest Growing Startups | The Mr. Bray Labs Podcast

    How I Make Sure I’m Never Late to Meet a Founder

    From $50 Million to $50 Billion: Thomas Laffont at the All-In Summit

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

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  • The Hollywood Superagent: Michael Ovitz at the All-In Summit

    “One doesn’t get to a place of success without having made mistakes.”

    That’s CAA founder Michael Ovitz at the All-In Summit. In a conversation with the besties, Ovitz tells us how he built CAA from nothing and where Hollywood goes in the era of AI.

    A Man Who Spots Opportunities

    What struck me most about Ovitz is how good he is at spotting opportunities.

    Ovitz was a poor kid who got his first job in the mailroom at William Morris, the preeminent talent agency of his day. He quickly moved up the ranks, and left to start his own agency in 1975.

    Creative Artists Agency (CAA) was a new type of agency. It didn’t just represent clients. CAA put together teams of people to create movies and TV shows together.

    It’s called “packaging,” and Ovitz invented it. Ovitz could sell you everyone you need to make a film, all at once.

    This gave Ovitz and his clients extraordinary leverage. Either take the whole package at the price Ovitz said, or nothing.

    But Ovitz didn’t just spot opportunities in Hollywood. In 1992, he began to visit Silicon Valley.

    Who in LA cared about Silicon Valley in ’92? Practically nobody. But Ovitz could see where the future was headed.

    He helped create Tele-TV, an interactive television service, in 1995. It was basically Netflix, 10 years too early. It didn’t make it, but you have to admire how innovative it was.

    Will AI Put Hollywood Out of Work?

    “250,000 people in Los Angeles make their living in the media business. They are all afraid of one thing, and that’s are they going to have a job…”

    AI tools can create realistic videos of anything you want in seconds. With tools like that, is there still a place for humans in entertainment?

    Ovitz thinks that AI could replace some technical tasks, but not the human’s creative vision. I agree with him there.

    I think AI could replace some people, like extras or CGI designers. I’ve done some extra work myself as a hobby, and I doubt that job will exist in 10 years.

    But I don’t think AI will ever completely replace humans in entertainment.

    Give me an AI tool that can generate any video, and I’ll still never come up with The Sopranos. I just don’t have any ideas that good!

    What AI will do is lower the cost of making a movie or TV show. That will result in more content.

    But we still need humans to tell the AI tools what to make.

    Wrap-Up

    Even though entertainment isn’t my main profession, I find Ovitz fascinating. He’s a guy who came from nothing to completely take over an industry. And even today, you can tell he’s still excited to go to work.

    I’m looking forward to reading his autobiograhy, Who Is Michael Ovitz? Regardless of the business we’re in, we can all learn something from this special man.

    What did you think of Ovitz’s talk?

    More from the All-In Summit:

    Elon at the All-In Summit

    Ukraine, China and the Deep State: Mearsheimer and Sachs at the All-In Summit

    From $50 Million to $50 Billion: Thomas Laffont at the All-In Summit

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

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    Misfits Market

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    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • From $50 Million to $50 Billion: Thomas Laffont at the All-In Summit

    He started with $50 million. Today, Thomas Laffont manages $50 billion.

    At the All-In Summit, the Coatue Management co-founder explains what has gone wrong in the venture market and how we get back on track.

    Fake Unicorns

    There are 1,440 private tech companies valued at over $1 billion. This is by far the most ever.

    In 2019, there were only 470.

    A majority of all tech companies valued above $1 billion are private.

    The thing is, most of those valuations are fake. A huge percentage of them were priced by a single firm, Tiger Global Management.

    I saw Tiger in deals in 2021. They ripped $100 million checks into anything and everything.

    Most of those companies will never exit above $1 billion.

    No Exit

    Laffont gives a great overview of the three ways unicorns exit. All three are blocked:

    1) IPO’s. 2022-4 has seen the fewest tech IPO’s since the mid 90’s — even fewer than in the financial crisis.
    2) M&A. Most significant M&A is blocked by the FTC.
    3) PE. High interest rates have meant that few PE buyouts are happening. After all, those buyouts are funded by debt.

    This means that VC’s are holding companies twice as long as before COVID. That cuts their return in half.

    LP’s are running out of money to invest in new funds. They’re still waiting to get their money back from the old fund!

    Over time, this will depress innovation. There will be less capital available to startups.

    The nonexistent exit market is why we need to get rid of Lina Khan ASAP. Whoever wins the election must fire her immediately.

    This is one problem we can fix with the stroke of a pen. We need M&A so that people can afford to keep creating new technology!

    What’s the Solution?

    Laffont’s solution to the problems in the venture market is simple: going public.

    Going public cleans up the cap table, ensures proper governance, and finds the right price for the company. And for all the talk of the IPO window being closed, the reality is that no one can stop you from going public.

    Laffont highlights some amazing companies that could go public soon: SpaceX, Shein, Wiz and more. These are some of the greatest companies of all time, and public investors will clamor to own them.

    I’d like to see a return to the 90’s….go public after maybe 5-7 years and let the chips fall where they may. Everyone gets liquidity, you find out the right price for the company, and then you prove yourself to the market.

    This discipline helped Zuck enormously. If Facebook were private, would he have gotten that company efficient?

    I doubt it. And if it works for Zuck, it can work for you!

    Wrap-Up

    You can tell Laffont’s experience in this talk. He sees the entire market clearly and can assess all the problems and solutions. That’s what 25 years of experience looks like!

    I hope we see more rational valuations, no matter how exciting AI is. And let’s man up and get these companies public.

    The markets are there. What are we afraid of?

    What did you think of Laffont’s talk?

    More on tech:
    Elon at the All-In Summit

    How I Make Sure I’m Never Late to Meet a Founder

    Backing One of the World’s Fastest Growing Startups | The Mr. Bray Labs Podcast

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order.