Tremendous

An angel investor's take on life and business

  • Pitch Deck Roast: LightHaus

    My buddy Jesse is raising $600,000. He just sent me his deck and asked me to tear it apart in public. You’re a brave man, Jesse! Let’s get started…

    Jesse’s startup is called LightHaus. It’s an app to provide kids with art therapy.

    Jesse asked me to be brutal. But honestly, this is better than 90% of the decks I look at.

    Let’s look at what Jesse did right and where he can improve…

    The Good

    Right away, Jesse makes it clear what the company does. Lighthaus is an app that provides art therapy to kids.

    I cannot tell you how many decks I read through and still have no clue what the company does 20 slides later. That means the deck has failed completely.

    Not only is Jesse clear, he’s also concise, keeping his deck to just 12 slides. That’s a good length to aim for.

    I also love that he made the “Team” slide the 2nd slide in the deck.

    Especially in early stage companies, I’m betting on the team above all. So I want to know who they are right away!

    Jesse also shows clear traction. LightHaus’s revenue is growing really fast!

    In all, Jesse hits every important point in this deck: vision, team, traction, competitors, TAM and ask.

    The Bad

    Right on the first slide, I see a big problem: “A product of Mr Bray Labs, LLC.”

    If you want to raise money, your startup cannot be an LLC. I wrote a detailed post recently on why.

    But fortunately for Jesse, this is an easy problem to fix. Any lawyer familiar with startups can convert you.

    There’s a 2nd red flag in this deck: Jesse appears to be a solo founder. I’ve backed solo founders before, but only rarely.

    VC’s usually look for 2-4 co-founders. If Jesse had a co-founder (preferably someone technical), he’d raise money much more easily.

    I also found the “Go to Market” slide confusing.

    Jesse mentions “APA/licensure approval.” Does that mean the American Psychological Association has to approve this before we can move from pilots to annual contracts?

    Many investors aren’t familiar with professional body approvals. So, it would be good to include a little more detail there.

    Finally, the TAM slide is incorrect.

    What you want to do is calculate a bottoms-up TAM. What do you charge for your product, and how many potential customers are there?

    For example, if there are 5 million children who need art therapy and the product is $20/month, the bottoms-up TAM would be $1.2 billion.

    I would skip the SAM/SOM stuff. I never look at that anyway — a bottoms-up TAM should be enough.

    Wrap-Up

    Overall, Jesse’s deck is excellent.

    It’s clear and it’s short. That’s what you want to aim for.

    If Jesse found a co-founder, converted to a C Corp, and fixed that TAM slide, he’d be in a very strong position to raise $500,000 to $1 million.

    What do you think of Jesse’s deck?

    I hope you enjoyed this respite from all the election coverage! Whatever happens, we have work to do!

    More on tech:

    Why Your Startup Must Be a Delaware C Corp

    The Big 3: Vision, Team and Traction

    Meet My Latest Investment: PodcastAI

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Are Hundreds of Universities Headed for Bankruptcy?

    The University of the Arts taught students for almost 150 years. In June, it closed suddenly. Is this the future for hundreds of universities?

    Many colleges are facing a bleak future: declining enrollment, increasing costs, and empty coffers. The idea of a college closing its doors used to be unthinkable. Today, about 2 a month are going under.

    The University of the Arts may be the canary in the coal mine.

    Declining Enrollment

    Every fall, fewer Americans are heading off to college. The numbers peaked in 2010 at 21 million students and have fallen to 18.6 million.

    Americans are having fewer children. And given the high costs, many young people are questioning whether college is worth it.

    No matter how good your school is, you’re swimming against that tide.

    Excessive Costs

    The University of the Arts wasn’t cheap.

    Tuition was $54,290 a year. Add in living expenses, and you’re looking at around $80,000. A four year degree would run you over $300,000.

    It’s hard to justify tuition like that at a school no one has ever heard of.

    Take University of Wisconsin-Madison, my alma mater. Tuition is under $12,000 and name recognition is far better. If you can’t get in, there are countless other state schools that charge a lot less than $55k.

    How did the costs at some colleges get so high? One reason is an explosion of administrators.

    From Forbes:

    Between 1976 and 2018, full-time administrators and other professionals employed by those institutions increased by 164% and 452%, respectively. Meanwhile, the number of full-time faculty employed at colleges and universities in the U.S. increased by only 92%, marginally outpacing student enrollment which grew by 78%.

    I have no idea what all these assistant vice provosts of diversity do. But at an average of $150,000 a pop, they certainly cost students plenty.

    The Price of Education Goes to Zero

    Small, private schools like University of the Arts are having a hard enough time competing. But what happens when the cost of education drops to zero?

    While I was writing this article, I used ChatGPT Search to find lots of information. Effectively, I got a tutor on the subject for $20/month.

    And it worked — I learned a lot!

    Today, you can have ChatGPT or Perplexity tutor you on any subject. It knows pretty much everything and it never runs out of patience. And unlike a big university lecture, AI can tailor its lesson to you.

    Only a handful of top schools like Harvard can teach you better than AI. Now, all that’s missing is a credential to show what you’ve learned.

    Startups will pop up to fund that gap in the market. Already, Coursera can give you a unique ID to prove you took a class.

    Wrap-Up

    Call me a jerk, but I love seeing places like University of the Arts go out of business.

    For decades, they charged people ridiculous prices for a degree from a place no one’s ever heard of. How many people are struggling with debt from this marginal institution?

    For top colleges like Harvard or even UW-Madison, the future is secure. They have name recognition and multibillion dollar endowments.

    But no-name schools charging you $60k? That’s over.

    The cost of education is going to zero. And we’ll be better educated than ever.

    How do you think people will learn in the future?

    More from the blog:

    Meet My Latest Investment: PodcastAI

    Talking Investment Red Flags on the Mr. Bray Labs Podcast

    The Everything Drug? | Dave Ricks of Eli Lilly on GLP-1’s

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

    ·

  • ChatGPT Search vs. Google: Which Should You Use?

    Google is in serious trouble. Yesterday, OpenAI dropped ChatGPT Search, its new Google killer. ChatGPT Search can pull realtime data from the internet to answer your questions.

    But is it better than Google? This morning, I tried 3 real questions I needed answered on both ChatGPT Search and Google.

    Let’s see who wins!

    1) Market data. Sitting in North Jersey a little past 9am this morning, I wondered where markets would open. Yesterday was a rout…how are things looking?

    I asked ChatGPT Search where the e mini is trading. This is a futures contract on the S&P 500 and indicates where the market may open.

    Let’s see how it does…

    ChatGPT Search nailed it, pulling up-to-the-minute data on the e mini. Looks like we’re headed for a strong open!

    Now, let’s try Google…

    Google produces a different result, showing that the market is set to open flat.

    So, who’s right? I clicked through to Marketwatch to find out…

    Turns out, ChatGPT Search was 100% accurate and Google was completely wrong.

    Google’s answer was worse than useless — providing incorrect data is counterproductive. It would’ve been better to just refuse my query.

    ChatGPT Search stomped Google on this round. On to #2…

    2) Perplexity funding. I heard that Perplexity is raising a new round. What will the valuation be?

    Let’s ask ChatGPT Search…

    ChatGPT Search pulls up an answer right away and gives us multiple, reliable sources. Great work!

    On to Google…

    Google gives us the same answer, and both are correct. So, this one’s a tie.

    Now that ChatGPT has realtime search, I think Perplexity’s dead. My bet is this will be a small acquisition for somebody.

    3) Will dinner get rained out? I’m supposed to meet a friend in the city for dinner tonight. Singaporean! Yum yum.

    But it’s looking pretty grey this morning. Will I get soaked on the way over?

    Let’s ask ChatGPT Search…

    ChatGPT Search gives a very precise answer. Looks like we’re all clear!

    On to Google…

    Google doesn’t answer my question directly. However, it does provide a nice little graph showing the chance of precipitation throughout the day.

    It’s not a direct answer, but Google’s response gives me useful detail on today’s weather. Looks like it should be all clear come dinner time.

    I’ll call this one a tie.

    Wrap-Up

    We saw 2 ties and one win for ChatGPT Search. ChatGPT Search takes the day!

    Let’s keep in mind, this product is 24 hours old. It’s only going to get better.

    If I were Google, I’d be terrified right now. They need to release a competitor to this ASAP.

    Order pizza, work all night, make it happen.

    And if I’m at Perplexity, I’m sending out resumes right now. I think that company is a 0.

    What do you think of ChatGPT Search?

    More on tech:

    Meet My Latest Investment: PodcastAI

    Clone: The Most Human Android Yet?

    Climb, Crawl, Fly, Swim: Jake Loosararian at the All-In Summit

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 










































  • Why You Won’t See Me at Tech Events

    If you’re selling sausages door to door, you don’t go to the vegan co-op. If you’re trying to find great founders, you don’t go to a tech event.

    When I first started as an angel investor, I went to tons of tech events. For a year, I made sure I hit two per week minimum.

    Luckily, I live in the NYC area where there are countless events every day. But now, I only hit a couple per year.

    Here’s why…

    Great Founders Aren’t at Events

    After a year of hitting every event I could find, I took stock. What did I have to show for it?

    Countless trips, untold hours. The answer: not much.

    I had made numerous investments that year. But I didn’t meet any of those founders at events.

    I also noticed something else…

    “I’ve invested in a lot of great founders, some in NYC. But I’ve never seen any of them at a tech event.”

    The great founders aren’t standing around eating shrimp cocktails. They’re building product or talking to customers.

    Those are the levers that move a business forward. The best founders pull those levers relentlessly and ignore everything else.

    What Is Worth Going To

    One thing I love doing is meeting in person with founders I’ve invested in. I try to do this whenever they’re in town, if they have the time.

    It’s great to hear about what they’re building. Sometimes, they just need someone to listen, and I’m happy to do that.

    I also get the chance to assess them as a person. That’s 10x easier in the flesh.

    That assessment informs follow-on bets. When I met a wonderful founder of mine in person last summer, I was amazed at how he knew every detail of his business.

    When the Series A happened that fall, I felt confident doubling down. This summer, I had a chance to see him again and congratulate him on the round.

    I also make sure to hit the demo days of top accelerators. This is some of the best dealflow there is.

    Luckily, many are online.

    Wrap-Up

    “The main thing is to keep the main thing the main thing.” That’s one of my favorite quotes.

    It’s simple. But darn if it isn’t hard to do!

    It’s easy to accept these very kind invitations that so many folks extend. But I have to have the discipline to say no.

    My business is meeting great founders. Anything that doesn’t get me closer to that has to go.

    So if you don’t see me at the next tech event, you know where I’ll be: sitting on Zoom, looking for the next Elon.

    Do you go to tech events?

    More on tech:

    Small Investors Lead to Big Investors

    Meet My Latest Investment: PodcastAI

    Why Your Startup Must Be a Delaware C Corp

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • The Superinvestors of Graham and Doddsville

    “If people weren’t so often wrong, we wouldn’t be so rich.”

    Charlie Munger

    Very few investors beat the market long term. Those that do tend to have one thing in common: they’re value investors.

    In 1984, Warren Buffett wrote a fascinating article about these top performing investors. Today, I dug into The Superinvestors of Graham and Doddsville for the first time.

    What can an angel investor learn from these outstanding public market managers?

    A History of Massive Outperformance

    Buffett digs deep into the raw numbers for 9 top funds, all value investors. Each one has massively outperformed the stock market.

    Most of these names are unfamiliar. But they’re crushing the big boys in finance, beating the market from between 8% and 16% a year.

    Over time, that results in a colossal difference in wealth.

    Take Tweedy Browne, one partnership Buffett profiles. From 1968 to 1983, the S&P would’ve tripled your money. Tweedy Browne grew it 10x.

    Among all these top investors, the best is Buffett himself. His Buffett Partnership, which he ran before Berkshire Hathaway, turned in 23.8% annualized returns net of fees over 12 years.

    What These Superinvestors Have in Common

    “The investors simply focus on two variables: price and value.” – Warren Buffett

    What these superinvestors do is very simple: they buy businesses for less than they’re worth. A lot less.

    Although most of them bought publicly traded stocks, they looked at each stock as if they were buying the whole business. So instead of trying to figure out what the stock will do next week, they asked themselves, “Is this a good business, and is the price fair?”

    It seems obvious. But hardly anyone does it.

    “The common intellectual theme of the investor from Graham and Doddsville is this: they search for discrepancies between the value of a business and the price of small pieces of that business in the market.” – Warren Buffett

    This does not mean buying the very cheapest company you can find. Instead, Buffett and other top value investors buy great companies that are trading below their real worth.

    “It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.” – Warren Buffett

    How I Apply These Principles as an Angel Investor

    I recently met a young founder who had a great AI startup. He’d built the company to $1 million in revenue, and I was really impressed with the product.

    But the price just didn’t make sense.

    He was raising at a $50 million valuation. That’s 50x ARR.

    I had done two other deals this year with a similar amount of revenue. One was at a $5 million post, another at $12 million.

    Both had stronger growth than this pricey startup.

    Reward vs. Risk

    A $50 million valuation at this early stage takes away most of my upside.

    Let’s assume it becomes a billion dollar company. Given that I’ll probably lose half my gains in dilution, I’d only be sitting on a 10x return.

    In the typical fund of 30-40 investments, this doesn’t come anywhere near to returning the fund.

    Now, what if that startup raised at a $10 million post? My return would be 50x fully diluted, enough to return the fund and then some.

    Investing in startups is risky. Without enough upside in the winners, I won’t see a return. It comes down to another observation from Buffett:

    “The greater the potential for reward in the value portfolio, the less risk there is.” – Warren Buffett

    Wrap-Up

    Buffett-style stock picking seems very different from investing in venture capital. But they operate on the same principles.

    We have to buy assets for a lot less than they’re worth. The more upside we have, the lower our risk.

    Whether you’re talking Coke stock or startups, that means backing the best at a reasonable price.

    What do you think of Buffett’s advice?

    More on investing:

    Meet My Latest Investment: PodcastAI

    Small Investors Lead to Big Investors

    Street Fighters: The Last 72 Hours of Bear Stearns, the Toughest Firm on Wall Street

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Is YouTube Censoring the Rogan Podcast?

    It was the most popular podcast in the world. So why couldn’t I find it anywhere? The Joe Rogan interview with Donald Trump has passed 37 million views, but yesterday on YouTube, it was nowhere to be found.

    I tried typing in “joe rogan trump,” “joe rogan trump full interview,” you name it. But the only way to find the episode was to go to the podcast’s YouTube profile and hunt for it.

    Countless viewers had the same problem. So is this just a technical glitch, or is YouTube censoring Trump?

    An Algorithmic Glitch?

    On a recent episode of This Week in Startups, host Jason Calacanis said that the problem may be a quirk in the YouTube algorithm. It can prioritize short videos over long ones.

    I don’t think this is the culprit. I’ve had no problem finding other full interviews from JRE, including a great one with Chamath.

    Mass Reporting?

    A more likely possibility: mass reporting of the Trump interview.

    An anonymous account on Twitter claims a Google employee contacted him to tell him that the video could’ve been marked as spam. This can happen when a lot of people report a video.

    There’s no way to verify this claim. But it’s not hard to imagine a bunch of lefties reporting the interview simply because they don’t like Trump.

    Plain Old Censorship

    Another possibility is that Google intentionally censored the video. We don’t have evidence of that, but it wouldn’t surprise me.

    YouTube has a history of censoring political content. Other social media platforms like Facebook and pre-Elon Twitter routinely did the same, often working with the government to remove information.

    If Google did censor it, I hope a whistleblower tells us.

    Better Alternatives to YouTube

    There are two possibilities here: either YouTube search stinks or they’re censoring content. Either way, I’m not wild about using it.

    I suggest you do what I did: listen to the podcast in your podcast player. These players operate over an open standard called RSS, which cannot be censored.

    Rogan also uploaded the entire episode to Twitter, which you can see above. That’s a great option for content creators because Twitter will not censor you, unlike other platforms.

    Wrap-Up

    As of today, I’m able to find the interview on YouTube. But what really happened here?

    YouTube either dropped the ball or purposely tried to interfere with the election.

    For what it’s worth, I loved the Rogan/Trump interview. As you listen to them chat for 3 hours, Trump doesn’t feel like the monster the media makes him out to be.

    He feels human.

    Whatever our politics, I hope we can agree that censorship is wrong. And I hope to hear Harris on the show soon!

    More on tech:

    From $50 Million to $50 Billion: Thomas Laffont at the All-In Summit

    Meet My Latest Investment: PodcastAI

    Talking Investment Red Flags on the Mr. Bray Labs Podcast

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Why Your Startup Must Be a Delaware C Corp

    There’s one problem that will make me pass on a startup faster than anything else: not being incorporated properly. When it comes to incorporation, there’s only one right answer: the Delaware C Corp.

    The Delaware C Corp is the perfect form for tech startups. It lets you do things that other forms like LLC’s don’t. It also maximizes your ability to raise money.

    Let’s go through some of the reasons why investors love Delaware:

    1) Stock options. A Delaware C Corp lets you grant stock options, which every tech startup needs to do. An LLC does not.

    If you’re going to attract great people, you have to give them equity. Stock options make that easy.

    Meanwhile, granting people equity in an LLC is very difficult.

    2) Share classes. When investors put money into your company, they don’t want common shares. They typically get preferred shares, which come with more protections.

    When you get acquired or shut down, preferred shareholders get their money back first.

    I’ve had several companies get acquihired. Without preferred shares, I probably would’ve lost a lot of money.

    But because I had preferred shares, I got my money back.

    LLC’s and other corporate forms don’t allow for multiple share classes. For most VC’s, this is a nonstarter.

    3) Predictable legal environment. Delaware has a precedent for everything. So many companies have incorporated in the tiny state for so long that the environment is highly predictable.

    The Delaware Court of Chancery is staffed by judges who are experts in corporate law. All they do is hear these kind of cases.

    Hopefully your startup never winds up in court. But if it does, investors want a predictable set of laws governing the dispute.

    4) Downstream funding. Future investors will require you to be a Delaware C Corp. So if I’m investing now, I want you to have that squared away.

    After all, you’re going to need a lot more money in the future!

    Many VC firms can only invest in C Corps. Their Limited Partnership Agreement (LPA), the agreement they make with their investors, requires it.

    5) Easy taxes. If you incorporate as an LLC, you will make your investors’ tax returns a nightmare. Any money you make will flow through to them, causing endless confusion.

    What’s more, other states may assess a corporate tax. Delaware doesn’t.

    A C Corp makes tax season easy.

    Wrap-Up

    Delaware C Corps are perfectly suited for tech startups. You can innovate on your product or branding, but not here.

    Starting a C Corp is easy — services like Carta or Capbase can make one cheaply in a couple of clicks.

    And if you started with an LLC or some other structure, don’t worry! You can convert to a Delaware C Corp.

    It’s just a matter of time and legal fees. And since it’s much easier to convert if you haven’t raised money, you want to do this as soon as possible.

    Raising money is hard enough. Give yourself the best possible shot — get incorporated properly!

    Are you a C Corp? Why or why not?

    *I have a small investment in Capbase.

    More on tech:

    Small Investors Lead to Big Investors

    Meet My Latest Investment: PodcastAI

    The Big 3: Vision, Team and Traction

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Street Fighters: The Last 72 Hours of Bear Stearns, the Toughest Firm on Wall Street

    On January 18th, 2007, Bear Stearns stock reached an all-time high, valuing it at over $20 billion. Just 14 months later, the company was gone. How it happened is the story of the fascinating book Street Fighters.

    Cracks in the Facade

    Bear lacked the polish of a firm like Goldman. But its traders had come to dominate the massive market for mortgage-backed securities.

    As house prices soared in the 2000’s, Bear made huge profits.

    But once prices began to falter, Bear’s mortgage securities started losing money. Soon, the word spread that Bear was taking big losses.

    Counterparties began to pull huge sums from Bear, draining the company of cash. The many hedge funds that relied on Bear as a prime broker didn’t want their money stuck on a sinking ship.

    Bear was losing money fast, sometimes billions in a day. Meanwhile, it struggled to get new loans to make up for the losses.

    A Financial House of Cards

    To me as a tech guy, the way Bear ran its finances seems insane.

    It leveraged itself 30:1. A 3% loss would take down the company.

    Surely you’re going to take a 3% loss eventually, right?

    Worse yet, much of Bear’s borrowing was via overnight repo loans. They easily rolled those loans over every day, until one day they couldn’t.

    Imagine financing your business that way — 30:1 leverage, and not knowing from day to day whether you’re still alive.

    It’s deranged. But on Wall Street at the time, it was common practice.

    Compare that to how the best businesses in tech finance themselves.

    Rahul at Superhuman keeps a minimum of 4 years runway in the bank at all times. Big public tech companies keep even more cash — Apple is sitting on $62 billion.

    Apple is still here. Bear is not.

    No wonder technology companies are taking over the world.

    Asleep at the Wheel

    Dictatorial, lazy managers let Bear fall apart.

    CEO Jimmy Cayne barely worked despite collecting an eight figure salary. He left on Thursday afternoons to play golf at his New Jersey beach house. He spent another couple of months per year playing in bridge tournaments and lounging in Florida.

    Other executives followed his lead. Soon, several were leaving early each week to go to their vacation houses.

    When Cayne was present, he brooked no dissent.

    Board minutes were written up before the meeting even happened. Members were often told to read from prepared statements.

    This guy is one of the worst managers I’ve ever seen. The average Joe off the street could’ve done better.

    The End of the Line

    By March of 2008, Bear was nearing the end. Between counterparties pulling their accounts or demanding more collateral, the firm was running out of money.

    New CEO Alan Schwartz and his team tried to find funding wherever they could: Japanese banks, the Germans, even private equity investor J.C. Flowers. Flowers tried to bring in Warren Buffett, but Buffett declined, citing his bad experience investing in Salomon Brothers.

    That left one viable suitor: J.P. Morgan.

    Jamie Dimon Saves the Day

    JPM had the cash and the clout to get a deal done fast. The JPM and Bear teams spent a sleepless weekend at Bear Stearns headquarters at Madison and 46th Street. (I’ve been past it — it’s quite a nice building.)

    On March 16th, JPM agreed to acquire Bear for $2 a share (later revised up to $10). The stock had been worth $170 just a year earlier.

    The deal would’ve never happened if the Fed hadn’t agreed to backstop up to $30 billion in losses on the Bear portfolio.

    The Fed and Treasury never seemed to seriously consider letting Bear go bankrupt. Why they so readily put government money on the line is unclear.

    Why can’t these banks go bankrupt like anyone else?

    Wrap-Up

    I found the story of Bear’s last days fascinating.

    This is what happens when you take ridiculous risks. You make big money for a while, and then you get kicked in the face.

    When you look at the most successful companies of today, like Apple, they look nothing like Bear. They provide value to customers and run their finances conservatively.

    Slow and steady wins the race.

    What do you think of Bear Stearns’ demise?

    Have a great weekend everybody!

    More on markets:

    From $50 Million to $50 Billion: Thomas Laffont at the All-In Summit

    My Next Move in this Turbulent Market

    The Coming M&A Wave

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Clone: The Most Human Android Yet?

    Scrolling Twitter last night, my jaw dropped. What the heck is that? It looked like a human skeleton moving itself around — I’d never seen a robot like this.

    The new Torso by Clone Robotics is unlike any robot you’ve ever seen. Instead of being made of steel and motors, the Clone is constructed from carbon fiber and artificial muscles.

    It looks almost human.

    Artificial muscles appear to give the Clone’s hands incredible dexterity. In a video released by the company, the hand is able to manipulate a ball just like a human.

    https://twitter.com/ikirigin/status/1768662503213715785

    The carbon fiber and artificial muscles also give the Clone unusual strength. Its hands can pick up as much as 15 pounds, more than most robots.

    The cost of a Clone may be a lot less than you think. In an investment prospectus from last year on Republic, Clone estimates that a full android will cost about $20,000.

    That’s the price of a used car. At that rate, anyone could own one.

    I find it interesting that at the recent All-In Summit, Elon mentioned a similar price for Tesla’s Optimus. He estimates it will cost $10-20,000 at scale.

    The Optimus and the Clone use very different technologies. But nonetheless, androids seem to be converging around this cost.

    If they go for $20,000, most middle class Americans could lease one for a couple hundred bucks a month. It could do all your housework and at night, it could work in a factory.

    Your Clone could pay for itself, and then some!

    I usually don’t invest in robotics. But this is so darn innovative, I’d almost take a shot.

    I can’t wait to see what’s next from the Clone team!

    Would you buy a Clone?

    More on tech:

    Elon at the All-In Summit

    The New Figure 02 — the World’s Best Robot?

    Two Million Miles Without a Fatality: Waymo’s CEO at the All-In Summit

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order. 

  • Why I’m Voting for Donald Trump

    I never thought I’d vote for Donald Trump in a million years. In 2016, I was knocking doors in Pennsylvania for Hillary. But after 4 disastrous years with Biden and Harris, I’m all-in on Trump.

    Here’s what made me change my mind…

    Staying out of WWIII

    The war in Ukraine could result in a nuclear conflict. Preventing this is my highest priority as a voter.

    Putin has threatened nuclear war over our support of Ukraine. We always assume he’s bluffing.

    But if we find out he’s not, it will be too late.

    Trump wants to end the war in Ukraine right away. Harris, meanwhile, has never provided a timetable for bringing this conflict to a resolution.

    The longer this war goes on, and the more it escalates, the closer we are to nuclear war. It’s critical that we bring it to a conclusion right away.

    Missile Defense

    This might seem like a wonky issue, but it is critically important.

    If a president has the wrong policies for the economy or education, no big deal. We can change them.

    But if we are obliterated in a nuclear war, that’s it.

    In a Twitter Spaces with Elon Musk in August, Trump proposed creating new missile defense systems to better protect us from nuclear missiles. Harris has no plan to protect us from these deadly weapons.

    Hearing Trump’s proposal on missile defense finally tipped me over the edge into supporting him. I’m happy to hear a candidate talk about this critical issue that is too often ignored.

    Inflation

    Every time I go to the grocery store, I’m shocked at the cost. How could this little pile of food on the conveyor belt be that much?

    I’m lucky. I can afford these high prices — they just make me mad.

    But for so many Americans, this is an existential crisis. They cannot put food on the table.

    During Trump’s presidency, inflation was almost nonexistent. As soon as Biden and Harris got into office, it went through the roof.

    Biden-Harris Spending Is Driving Inflation

    Ridiculous spending from Biden and Harris has inflated the economy. Pump a ton of money into the system, and prices go up.

    Biden and Harris pushed through enormous spending bills, one after another. Here are some of the larger ones:

    This comes to $4.2 trillion, on top of normal federal spending. Pump trillions of dollars into the economy, and prices go up.

    Trump wants to stop this ridiculous spending and make government more efficient. He plans to have Elon head a Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E.) charged with firing bureaucrats, slashing regulations and cutting spending.

    It’s a fantastic idea — Elon might be the one person who’s better than Trump at firing people!

    Securing the Border

    Right now, we have millions of people streaming into this country. We have no idea who they are. Some surely have criminal records.

    I’m all for immigration, and so is Trump. But we have to have control over our own borders.

    Harris does not believe in protecting our country.

    She has called for decriminalizing illegal immigration. Her administration even sold Trump’s border wall for scrap!

    Democrats are intentionally flooding our country with people with few skills and possible criminal backgrounds. How can I vote for that?

    Wrap-Up

    In this election, it all comes down to what David Sacks said.

    In the last 8 years, we’ve had an A/B test. 4 years of Trump, 4 years of Biden/Harris.

    Which one worked better?

    Trump gave us a strong economy and a peaceful world. Biden and Harris gave us out of control inflation and war.

    No contest.

    What are your thoughts on the election?

    More on the election:

    Kamala’s Extreme Agenda

    Elon in Butler, PA

    Vance at the All-In Summit

    Save Money on Stuff I Use:

    Fundrise

    This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

    More on Fundrise in this post.

    If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

    Misfits Market

    I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

    I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

    Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order.