Tremendous

This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

More on Fundrise in this post.

If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order.

I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

Where I’m Most Excited About Investing Now

July 11, 2025

If I work backward from the biggest problems, I can find the biggest opportunities. Here are 4 areas I’m excited about investing in now:

1) Longevity. Everything about my life is awesome. If you’re sitting in the United States as you read this, chances are the same is true for you.

The only thing that could derail it some day: sickness and death. That’s why I’m really interested in technologies that could increase our lifespan.

We’re seeing amazing new AI tools for scientific research, like the Evo2 and State models from the Arc Institute. Those new tools could help us discover drugs that let us live longer.

Everyone hates biotech these days. But new drugs, especially those for longevity, are becoming a big focus for me.

2) Fertility. If we’re all going to be living a lot longer, someone’s gotta take care of us oldsters. But sadly, fertility is collapsing around the world.

You may know that fertility in Korea, China and Japan has hit rock bottom. But America too is below replacement rates. Even more shocking, many developing countries like Brazil and India are below replacement as well.

That’s why I’m focusing on technologies to improve fertility. If women could have babies more easily past age 40, we might see many more children born.

3) Human Connection. Most Americans today say they feel lonely. And although we picture the young having the time of their lives, they’re actually the loneliest of all.

That’s why I’m interested in technologies that bring humans together, in person. This could mean people meeting around shared interests. Or it could be a better dating app.

What I don’t want to see is AI friends. I don’t want computers taking the place of human beings.

Those companies will probably be huge financial successes. But just like tobacco or gambling, I want nothing to do with it.

4) Defense. Number 4 may appear to be the odd man out on this list. But even if we live a long time with many children and lots of friends, it won’t matter if we can’t defend ourselves.

At the top of my list are missile defense startups. I seldom see one, but I’m continuing to scour startupland for them.

We’re in great danger from ICBMs and hypersonic missiles. Any technologies that could help stop them, like interceptor missiles or better radar systems, could be a great bet.

The recently passed One Big Beautiful Bill Act provides $25 billion for the Golden Dome, a missile defense system for America. This is an incredible tailwind for startups working on this problem.

Wrap-Up

What didn’t you see in this list? AI SDR’s, ad tech, AI-enabled CRM’s, etc.

Those could be useful tools. But they’re just not interesting to me.

I can’t motivate myself to get out of bed to increase ROAS 10%.

I’ll tell you what is motivating: solving a massive problem. These aren’t the only areas where I plan on investing, but they’re at the top of my list.

If you’re building in longevity, fertility, human connection or defense, let me know!

Have a great weekend everyone!

More on tech:

Grok 4: The Best AI Model Ever?

The Top 5 Reasons I Pass On a Startup

Up to $15 Million, Tax Free — QSBS Changes in the BBB

Save Money on Stuff I Use:

This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

More on Fundrise in this post.

If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order.

I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

Grok 4: The Best AI Model Ever?

July 10, 2025

Elon just dropped Grok 4 overnight. Early testing shows it blowing away most other models. So this morning, I ran it through a test of my own…

When Grok 3 came out in February, I asked it 3 real-life questions to gauge how good the model is. These are actual questions I needed the answer to, which is harder to game than an AI benchmark.

So today, I posed the same 3 questions to Grok 4. Let’s see how it does!

1) Grok as Investment Analyst. When I was testing Grok 3 in February, I was planning on making some changes to my investment portfolio.

I’ve since made those changes. But could I do even better? Let’s ask Grok 4.

Here’s the prompt I used:

“Assume I have a portfolio of index funds. My goal with this portfolio is long term growth. How should I allocate this portfolio across different types of index funds? Consider options like US index funds, foreign stock index funds, etc. I am 39 years old, so my time horizon is long. My risk tolerance is high. What would be the best allocation, given all this information? Use the best research you can find to support your answer.”

Grok gave a great answer here. It recommends a 90/10 stock/bond split. It also mentions that some sources advise 100% in equities for people like me.

Within the stock portfolio, Grok suggests a 60/40 split between US and foreign stock funds. It also gives recommendations from a range of sources, which suggest anywhere from 20-40% in foreign funds.

This aligns pretty well with my current allocation, which is 100% stocks and 66/34 between US/foreign. So, I won’t be changing anything for now.

Grok 4 did a great job, but it wasn’t much different from Grok 3’s response. It also let one unreliable source slip in: a random Reddit thread.

Overall, Grok 4 was good but didn’t blow me away in this first round. I’ll give it a B+.

2) Grok as VC Scout. Birth rates in America and much of the world are below replacement levels. I think that ways to increase fertility is one of the best bets in startupland today.

So, can Grok 4 help me find some great startups working on this problem? Let’s find out…

Here’s my prompt:

“What are the most interesting startups at pre-seed stage working on solutions to increase fertility? Consider startups to lower costs and improve effectiveness of IVF, and also startups to improve egg health for older women, among other possible ways to boost fertility.

Please only show me startups that have raised $750,000 or less in funding.”

Grok gave me a lovely table with some very interesting companies in it. It included all the info I needed, like amount raised and a brief overview of the startup.

Grok 4 did a way better job than Grok 3 on this task.

Grok 3 often pulled in startups that were way too late stage for me. Grok 4 accurately found the amounts each company has raised, excluding ones that have raised too much.

I’m giving Grok 4 an A on this round!

3) Make My Meetings Better. I’ve got 3 founder meetings coming up this afternoon. How can I do the best possible job on them?

Here’s my prompt to Grok 4:

“As an angel investor, I meet with a lot of startup founders. I want to do the best job I can in those meetings. What are some tips to perform better, be more helpful, and learn more about the startups I meet with?”

Grok 4 gave some fantastic advice here, including some sample questions. It also addressed other important aspects of angel investing, like diversification.

Grok 3’s response to this question was good, but more limited to the meeting itself. Grok 4 went further.

I’m giving Grok 4 an A+ here!

Wrap-Up

Overall, Grok 4 was very impressive and a significant step up from Grok 3.

I’m giving this new model an A-. If Grok could improve sourcing a bit, I’d bump it up to an A.

Grok 4 is the best model I’ve used so far. I recommend trying it yourself.

It’s available via subscription for $30/month or $300/year. There’s also Grok 4 Heavy, designed for very complex science and research questions, at $300/month or $3000/year. I haven’t tried that one yet, but I’m tempted…

Grok 4 is also available via API. If you’re a founder, consider building Grok 4 into your product.

I’m excited to see how OpenAI, Google and others respond!

More on tech:

How Good is Grok 3?

Amazon’s Nova Model: Cheap and Underrated

Testing Alibaba’s New Qwen Model

Save Money on Stuff I Use:

This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

More on Fundrise in this post.

If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order.

I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

The Top 5 Reasons I Pass On a Startup

July 9, 2025

I looked at 4000 deals I’ve said no to in the last 3 years. Here are the most common reasons I passed…

1) No revenue. This is by far the most common reason why I pass on a startup.

Cash is king. If a company can get people to plunk down their credit card, it means their product really is valuable.

I like to see $200-500k ARR when I invest. But unfortunately, most startups never make a dime in revenue.

2) Wrong Industry. The next most common reason I pass on a startup is that it’s in an area I don’t generally invest in.

Thus far, I’ve mostly stuck to software. I’m planning to branch out to a few biotech and defense deals, but there are many areas I don’t know about and don’t touch.

Think stuff like satellites, semiconductors and agtech. I don’t know a lot about those fields and they’re not the areas I’m most interested in. These may be great companies, but I leave them to other investors.

3) Revenue Growth Too Low. The 3rd biggest reason is that a company has revenue, but it’s not growing very fast.

If I look at my most successful investments today, they all had incredibly high growth when I invested. I look for at least 3x YoY growth in revenue.

4) Too Late Stage. While many companies are too early for me, others are already much too big.

Since I focus on early stage, I don’t write a check into something like SpaceX. In the last year or so, secondaries in major startups have become more and more frequent. There are some great opportunities here, but it’s just not where I focus.

5) Not a Delaware C Corp. When it comes to raising from US investors, there’s only one way to go: a Delaware C Corporation.

This entity lets you do important things a startup needs to do, like issue stock options. You’d be amazed how many companies get this wrong. Give yourself an advantage: incorporate properly from Day 1.

Wrap-Up

Here’s what you, as a founder, can learn from this…

Focus on investors that invest in companies like yours. Anything else is a waste of time.

Before you pitch an investor, make sure they invest at your stage. If you’re a biotech company, see if they’ve invested in other biotech companies. If you’re in Australia, find out if they invest in Australia.

Targeting your investors like this will take extra time at first. But you’ll save countless hours pitching people who are never going to write you a check.

With a carefully honed list of investors, you can raise fast and get back to building.

More on tech:

Up to $15 Million, Tax Free — QSBS Changes in the BBB

Where I’m Finding the Best Startups Now

Save Money on Stuff I Use:

This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

More on Fundrise in this post.

If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order.

I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

Memos from the Chairman

July 8, 2025

“I have just informed the purchasing department that they should no longer purchase paper clips. All of us receive documents every day with paper clips on them. If we save these paper clips, not only will we have enough for our own use, but we will also, in a short time, be awash in the little critters.“ – Alan “Ace” Greenberg

Why would the Chairman of a top Wall Street bank care about paper clips? Because it sends a message: be frugal.

Ace Greenberg rose from a lowly clerk to Chairman and CEO of Bear Stearns, one of the top firms on the Street. During his time at the helm, he regularly wrote short letters to his staff, goading them toward success.

These entertaining letters form the book Memos from the Chairman. When I heard Warren Buffett recommend it recently, I had to pick up a copy.

Frugality? On Wall Street?

“At last weeks partners meeting. Haimchinkel pointed out to me that the hors d’oeuvres had been upgraded considerably from peanuts. You will be happy to know that we are now back to peanuts.”

Greenberg cut expenses relentlessly. Snacks, envelopes, stamps — everything. His partner in this crusade was Haimchinkel Malintz Anaynikal, a charming invented character always advising sobriety and common sense.

Wall Street is more known for steak dinners and limos than frugality. Maybe that’s why Greenberg never stopped pushing his staff to cut costs.

Little expenses add up, and every expense comes straight out of your bottom line. If Greenberg let the firm become undisciplined in how it used paper clips and envelopes, soon employees would be wasting much larger sums.

Pick Up the Phone!

“…the harder you work, the luckier you get.“

Wall Street banks deal in some exotic stuff: derivatives, mortgage backed securities, you name it. But no matter how complex the business got, Greenberg always emphasized the basics.

Answer the phone. Return calls promptly. Show up to meetings on time.

These are basic things. But too often, we forget these basics, especially if we start to think we’re important.

In the end, any business is about serving the customer. That starts with being responsive and punctual.

So many of us in venture capital have long since forgotten these basic rules. A recent founder meeting I had is a case in point:

“Thank you so much for being on time!” the founder began. Later in the meeting, he thanked me again for showing up at the time we agreed.

Shouldn’t that be a bare minimum that any founder expects? You’d think. But evidently a lot of VC’s aren’t getting it right.

I may not be the biggest investor. I may not be the smartest.

But darn it, I can show up on time.

How Bear Lost Its Way

Today in 2025, Bear Stearns is known as a cautionary tale, if it’s known at all.
The company collapsed during the financial crisis in 2008. JPMorgan wound up swallowing Bear for a pittance.

If Bear had continued to follow the wise counsel of Ace Greenberg and Haimchinkel Malintz Anaynikal, this never would’ve happened.

Greenberg ordered his staff to be in the office during business hours, no exceptions. But when Jimmy Cayne ousted Greenberg from the CEO role, those standards began to slip.

Cayne often left on Thursday afternoons to play golf or bridge. Predictably, other executives followed his lead.

No one at the top seemed to realize how bad the firm’s finances were getting during this time. No wonder — they barely worked!

Bear’s collapse shows how the tone at a company is set from the top. Without strong leadership, a great company can cease to exist in just a few short years.

Wrap-Up

Greenberg practiced hard work, client service and frugality. If Bear had kept to those lessons, it might still be among America’s great banks.

But it didn’t. And now it’s gone.

It’s not complicated to put Greenberg’s lessons into practice. It’s all about doing basic things: returning messages, showing up on time, and watching expenses.

Anyone can do these things. But most people don’t.

That’s a great opportunity for the rest of us. It gives us a chance to stand out!

I learned a lot from Memos from the Chairman and had quite a few good laughs too. Pick up a copy!

More on Fundrise in this post.

If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order.

I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

Up to $15 Million, Tax Free — QSBS Changes in the BBB

July 7, 2025

Angels can make up to $15 million tax free thanks to changes in the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act. This is part of a huge expansion of Qualified Small Business Stock (QSBS) in the new bill.

What’s New With QSBS

These changes to the rules around QSBS apply to shares acquired from July 4th onward. Here are some of the key provisions:

Maximum tax free gain is now $15 million (up from $10 million)
Max tax free gain is now indexed to inflation.
Tax benefits come sooner. You get 50% of your gains excluded from tax within 3 years and 75% within 4 years. At 5 years, 100% of your gains up to $15 million are excluded. (Before the bill, you only got exclusions after 5 years.)
Maximum assets of the startup you’re investing in can be up to $75 million (up from $50 million).

This is a massive expansion of QSBS.

Making startups with up to $75 million in assets eligible for QSBS means that the vast majority of angel investments should qualify. Startups usually don’t have that much in assets until Series B or C at the earliest. Meanwhile, angels are usually investing from pre-seed to Series A.

The benefit is also indexed to inflation for the first time ever. That means Congress won’t need to revisit this any time soon.

Is QSBS a Giveaway to the Rich?

Getting $15 million tax free is pretty awesome for us. But is it good tax policy?

My view is that QSBS is a critical way to build America’s economy and ensure we remain #1 in tech. Startups are a huge engine of job creation in America. Venture-backed startups create jobs at 8x the pace of other companies!

QSBS is a giveaway to the rich, no doubt. I don’t need this benefit, and neither do most angels.

But QSBS gives investors a strong incentive to back startups. Without QSBS, they might invest their money in private credit, real estate, or the good old S&P 500.

And if you let me keep $15 million in gains tax free, what am I going to do with it?

I might buy a house. But most of the money will go to…you guessed it…more startups!

“And on and on it goes, this thing of ours,” as Paulie Gualtieri said in The Sopranos.

Tax savings under QSBS may be unfair in some ways, but they benefit all Americans in the end.

Wrap-Up

Critical caveat here: don’t rely on me for tax advice!

I’m not a tax or financial advisor. In fact, I use an accountant who is well versed in startup investments and QSBS.

You should do the same. If you want to evaluate an accountant’s knowledge of QSBS, just ask him to explain the law to you. He should be able to explain it clearly and correctly.

With the right advisor, you’ll have the best shot at getting the most out of this huge expansion of QSBS!

More on tech:

Where I’m Finding the Best Startups Now

Do Non-Founders Make Better Investors?

Save Money on Stuff I Use:

This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

More on Fundrise in this post.

If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order.

I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

Where I’m Finding the Best Startups Now

July 3, 2025

Lots of people want to become angel investors. But where do you find great deals? Here’s where I’m sourcing deals now…

I looked at all 35 names in my portfolio thus far. For each one, I noted where I first heard about the company.

Where My Deals Are Coming From

Here are the results…

Jason’s Syndicate: 23
Demo Day: 3
Fellow Investor Referral: 2
Used Product: 1
Tom Williams Syndicate: 1
Mana Ventures Syndicate: 1
Founder Referral: 1
Mercury Raise: 1
OpenVC: 1
Twitter: 1

One source stands out far beyond the others: Jason Calacanis’ syndicate. It’s an amazing source of deal flow.

The fella who found Uber and Robinhood will probably find the next big company too. When he does, I want to be there.

How My Dealflow Is Changing Today

When I first started as an angel, I didn’t know anyone in startupland. So I only did syndicate deals.

Now I’ve been investing for a little over 4 years. I have my own dealflow, and I also cold message interesting companies regularly.

Here’s where I’ve sourced my 6 most recent deals…

Jason’s Syndicate: 3
Founder Referral: 1
Mercury Raise: 1
Twitter: 1

I’ve gone from all syndicate deals to 50% of my deals being direct. I expect that percentage will rise to at least 75% over time as my network grows.

That said, I love doing syndicate deals. Sometimes, the lead will see a company I don’t.

I like having that flexibility to still invest. And if it’s an Uber, giving up 20% of the gains doesn’t bother me at all.

Why I Cold Message Founders

In two of these 6 cases (the founder referral and the company I found on Twitter), I cold messaged the founders. That’s something I do more and more.

In fact, most of my meetings these days are companies I contacted. That way, I know I’ll be interested in what they’re doing!

I like to tell the founder exactly why I found their company compelling. I definitely do not send the same message to everyone.

If my message is carefully tailored to the specific company, I’m more likely to hear back. I also message the same company repeatedly if I don’t hear.

I’m a small fry. I can’t expect the best deals to come to me.

But I’m in good company. Sequoia cold messages companies regularly.

In fact, that’s how Jim Goetz won the WhatsApp investment. If you out hustle the competition, you win.

Wrap-Up

Of the countless companies founded every year, only a few will matter. The one thing that matters in venture capital is to own a piece of those companies.

So I cast a wide net and meet lots of companies. Of the startups I see, I put a check into 1 in every 250 deals on average.

I’m always looking for new sources of great deals. So if you have one you love, let me know!

There will be no blog tomorrow for the holiday. Have a happy July 4th and God Bless America! 🇺🇸

More on tech:

Do Non-Founders Make Better Investors?

The Coming Wave of Job Losses

Save Money on Stuff I Use:

This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

More on Fundrise in this post.

If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order.

I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

The Coming Wave of Job Losses

July 2, 2025

Microsoft just announced they’re laying off another 9,000 people. With AI and offshoring rapidly eliminating jobs, are we about to see a new wave of unemployment?

AI Eats Engineering Jobs

New comp sci graduates have one of the highest unemployment rates of any major. Big Tech companies are doing hiring freezes and layoffs.

AI is driving this rapid slowdown in engineering jobs. An engineer skilled in AI can produce far more than before.

In fact, coding is what AI does best. But LLM’s are coming for other cognitive tasks.

I expect routine work in customer service and legal to be automated soon. And once AI masters driving, watch out. Truck driver is the most common job in 29 states.

But it’s not just computers that are coming for your job. It’s humans — overseas.

Our Man in Cairo

Whatever companies can’t automate, they’re offshoring.

“We have a guy in Egypt that does all our cold calls for us now,” a friend in sales told me this weekend. “He speaks perfect English. And it’s only $500 a month.”

A couple of years ago, his company would’ve hired an American fresh out of school. Not anymore.

The quality of talent available overseas is insane. We can hire the best students in their whole darn country for a fraction of what mediocre Americans cost. They work harder and turnover is lower too.

Adapting Is Harder Than It Looks

Between automation and offshoring, lower end desk jobs are rapidly disappearing. If prior waves of job losses are any indication, it will be hard for laid off Americans to adapt.

In 2008, Janesville, Wisconsin lost their GM plant. It employed 7,000 people at its peak, perhaps 1/6th of the town’s workers.

I was living just up I-90 from there in Madison at the time. I remember the plant closure being all over the news.

I recently read a book about Janesville. It turns out that despite the workers’ best efforts to retrain, 3/4 of them said they were worse off 5 years later.

Half the laid off families struggled to afford food. Children became homeless.

This is the future for a lot of laid off Americans. Adapting is harder than it looks.

Wrap-Up

AI and offshoring will decimate the lower end of the job market over the next decade.

Many of the displaced workers will struggle. They could form a potent political force.

My best advice on how to win in this new era is to embrace AI. Use it every day for every task.

If you can do that, you’ll be one of the winners in this new world.

More on tech:

Did a Robot Try to Attack Humans?

Testing Gemini’s New Models

Save Money on Stuff I Use:

This platform lets me diversify my real estate investments so I’m not too exposed to any one market. I’ve invested since 2018 with great returns.

More on Fundrise in this post.

If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order.

I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

Why Businesses Should Leave NYC Now

July 1, 2025

If you run a business in NYC, you should only be focused on one thing right now: finding office space in Jersey City. With anti-police mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani about to take over, this is the most important thing you can do for your company.

Back to the Bad Old Days

We saw the results of defunding the cops under Bill De Blasio.

Crime shot up like I’ve never seen in New York. Random people threatened me on the street. I saw people passed out with needles in their arms.

In 11 years out here, I’d never seen anything like it.

With the election of Mayor Eric Adams, New York is on the mend. But with Mamdani running away with the primary, we’re headed back to the bad old days.

Mamdani has repeatedly called for defunding the police. Now that he’s trying to get elected, he’s attempting to walk that back.

If you’re buying that, I have some swampland in Florida you’re gonna love.

Why Businesses Have to Leave Now

Mamdani will likely win. Even if he doesn’t, his primary victory shows how far left the NYC electorate has gone.

Soon, either Mamdani or someone very much like him will take power. They’ll defund the police and crime will skyrocket.

Once that happens, it will be hard to recruit employees to NYC.

Who wants to pay $4,000 a month for a closet and get robbed on their way to the grocery store? No one.

The best talent will go elsewhere. They’ll go to your competitors outside NYC.

Once you can no longer attract the best people, your company is done.

It’s important to leave now while there’s still space available. If you’re streaming out with everyone else, the limited office space in the surrounding area will be taken.

Why Jersey?

Here’s why you should move to Jersey City: it’s close, but not too close.

You’re safely across the river and away from NYC’s ultraliberal policies. But you’re close enough to the city that not all your workers need to move at once.

They can trickle in over time on their own schedule. They won’t need to take their kids out of school, at least not right away.

Asking everyone to move to Miami or Austin is a much harder sell. Asking them to hop on the PATH train is only a minor change to what they do now.

Jersey City has some lovely office space. This weekend, I looked around online out of curiosity and found this beautiful co-working space right across the street from the Newport PATH station. There are also some great spots in Hoboken and Secaucus, close to major train stations.

Wrap-Up

The lifeblood of any business is talent. And in a couple of years, the best talent will not want to be in New York.

You don’t wait until the roof collapses to leave a burning building. Don’t wait until you or your employees are being assaulted to leave NYC.

I hope I’m wrong about New York’s future. But I wouldn’t want to bet my company on it.

More on Fundrise in this post.

If you decide to invest in Fundrise, you can use this link to get $100 in free bonus shares!

Use this link to sign up and you’ll save $15 on your first order.

I’ve used Misfits for years, and it never disappoints! Every fruit and vegetable is organic, super fresh, and packed with flavor!

I wrote a detailed review of Misfits here.

Just Write the Poor a Check

June 30, 2025

When I was a kid, my family was on food stamps. But sometimes, what we really needed was money to pay the light bill. Why not just give people cash?

Right now, Congress is voting on Medicaid cuts in the hopes of balancing the budget. I have a much easier way to fix these programs: just write people a check.

A Grab Bag of Inefficient Programs

The US government has countless welfare programs. Some of the largest are Medicaid (health insurance for the poor), SCHIP (health insurance for poor kids), SNAP (food stamps), and TANF (cash welfare).

We spend about $750 billion on these programs in total. About 6% of that goes to admin costs: $45 billion.

Compare that to Social Security. Social Security is much larger, at $1.5 trillion a year in spending. Admin costs are just 0.5%, or about $8 billion a year.

It’s no wonder Social Security has way lower admin costs than programs like Medicaid. Medicaid has complex eligibility requirements and only pays for certain services. Handling applications and claims is time consuming and labor intensive.

What Happens If We Just Give Them a Check?

What if instead of all these complex programs for the poor, we did what Social Security does: give them cash?

The poor would have much more flexibility. They’d be able to buy diapers when they need diapers, instead of wishing that SNAP card could be used for Pampers.

The admin costs of these programs would also fall precipitously. If we got the admin costs on welfare programs down to the level of Social Security, we’d save about $40 billion a year.

That’s a ton of money! That $40 billion could be used to help more poor people or reduce the deficit.

The Power of Responsibility

Being on welfare isn’t great. I know: I’ve been there.

We don’t want people becoming dependent on the government for the rest of their lives. That is not a happy life.

Don’t believe me? Visit any urban ghetto and see the results of these welfare programs. Or visit a poor, rural area like the ones I lived in as a kid.

We should help folks get back on their feet if they’re having a rough patch. But we should time limit these programs to 5 years in a person’s life.

This is incredibly generous.

If you’re struggling, your fellow citizens will be happy to help you. We’ll cover your bills for a whole 5 years!

But if you’re able bodied, you eventually need to work. Five years should be more than enough time to find something.

And if you’re truly disabled, we’d be happy to support you for life. In a society as wealthy as ours, we have that luxury.

Wrap-Up

One big objection to sending the poor cash is that they’ll spend it on the wrong things. Drugs, alcohol, you name it.

Let’s be honest: some will. But let’s also not fool ourselves: people sell food stamps for cash and buy drugs as it is.

We shouldn’t penalize decent families down on their luck by treating them like children.

They know what they need better than we do. Giving them cash is the easiest way to meet those needs.

But another part of treating the poor like adults is responsibility. That’s why welfare must end after 5 years.

Give folks cash. But enforce a time limit.

This is how we can fix welfare in America.

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