Tremendous

An angel investor's take on life and business

  • What Do Conspiracy Theories Have To Do With Ant Farms?

    I notice a significant increase in the popularity of conspiracy theories recently. Some are byzantine, with such outrageous claims it’s a wonder they ever gained currency. And they seem to be gaining new adherents by the day.

    Conspiracy theories are nothing new. But why do they seem particularly salient today? Being a part of a group of believers, either in a religion or a conspiracy, provides connection to others and affirmation from a community. In a time of isolation, those are particularly valuable.

    But I think the biggest reason for the popularity of conspiracy theories today is that there is something happening to our world that we don’t understand and can’t control. An invisible illness is spreading globally and mutating steathily. Its origin is unknown. The date it all ends is unknown. Any control we have over it is partial at best. And it’s affecting nearly every person on earth in one way or another.

    As ghoulish as it is, believing that some group of evil humans unleashed this on us intentionally is more comforting than believing that COVID arose purely randomly. At least we could find those evildoers and punish them, and then maybe it stops! Believing the sickness isn’t serious provides an even greater comfort…the terrible things that seem to be happening around us aren’t real! Everything is fine!

    It is hard to accept someone is doing something awful to us on purpose, but at least it would preserve the illusion of human control. That we have no control and are being buffeted by random chance and a natural world that is indifferent to us is even scarier.

    Someone is shaking our ant farm!

    Or so we think. But in reality we are subject to an earthquake, this time of the biological variety. We don’t fully understand what’s happening, but we know something is.

    Conspiracies also gained currency after 9/11. I suspect this is because people found it more comforting to imagine our government was in control, even in a malevolent way, than to believe that a small group of unknowns from the other side of the world could strike at the heart of our nation at any time.

    What’s the solution? I’m not sure there is one, other than time. Distance from the events will give us perspective. But in the mean time, let’s remember that we are affected by randomness every day. Not everything has a pattern, a discernible cause, or a smoke filled room filled with evil, cigar chomping men behind it. Sometimes things just happen, and we have to respond the best we know how.

  • What I Just Learned From a Discussion With Nobel Laureate Jennifer Doudna

    Today I attended a fascinating discussion of the movie Human Nature, a documentary on CRISPR gene editing. Nobel Prize winner Jennifer Doudna, the co-inventor of CRISPR, gave us her perspective on the technology. Author Walter Isaacson and the filmmaker, Adam Bolt, also gave valuable insights.

    Isaacson framed the moment well, saying that CRISPR is part of the 3rd great scientific revolution. The first was in the first half of the 20th century, in physics. The 2nd, in information technology, consumed the second half of the century. And in the 21st century, the revolution is and will be in the life sciences.

    Because CRISPR can make DNA and RNA programmable like computer code, there’s a strong parallel between CRISPR and the IT revolution. What if biology and medicine progressed the way software has in the last few decades?

    Doudna is particularly excited about the applications of CRISPR to cure cancer. CRISPR can be used to program the patient’s immune cells to attack tumors. This echoes what the co-founders of BioNTech said earlier this week at a call I attended.

    Bolt and Doudna also noted that CRISPR was a scientific backwater at first. This really emphasizes the importance of funding basic science with no clear application. We never know where it will lead!

    The first patient to be treated for sickle cell anemia using CRISPR is doing quite well a year later. Doudna and others are hard at work on further applications of this technology. As an investor and as a human being, I am eagerly anticipating these breakthroughs.

    “Jennifer Doudna” by Koninklijke Nederlandse Akademie van Wetenschappen is licensed under CC BY 2.0

  • An Outstanding Science Movie and Your Chance to Talk to a Nobel Prize Winner

    I just finished watching the superb documentary Human Nature, which details the origins and applications of CRISPR gene editing. The filmmakers interview all the leading people in the field and produce a fascinating and highly accessible narrative.

    I found particularly striking how one of the co-inventors of CRISPR, Jennifer Doudna, enjoyed being in an unknown field at first but also wondered whether the field was neglected because it was a dead end. It shows us what we can accomplish when we overcome our self-doubt!

    You can see the movie and attend a talk tomorrow at 1pm EST with Nobel Laureate Jennifer Doudna here, both free of charge. It’s not often a person gets the chance to ask questions of a Nobel prize winner. I’ll be there!

    P.S. If you’re interested in CRISPR, I recommend this book.)

    “Micah’s DNA” by micahb37 is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0

  • The Best New Thinking on COVID

    Today, I came across two new articles that provide a great perspective on the COVID crisis.

    Enjoy!

    “State Public Health Laboratory in Exton Tests for COVID-19” by governortomwolf is licensed under CC BY 2.0

  • The Boy Who Was Me

    I recently received a wonderful letter from a young man named Corey, who is at Rawhide boys ranch. Rawhide is a place that takes in boys who have gotten in trouble with the law and helps them change their lives. Corey was behind in school before he arrived at Rawhide, but he’s done a complete 180 and will graduate high school early at 16!

    This is a rare outcome even for children from the best of circumstances. For Corey to be able to pull that off despite the disadvantages I imagine he’s faced in life is nothing short of astounding.

    I can relate to Corey because Corey was me. 22 years ago, I was in Rawhide too. I had gotten in a lot of trouble as a kid but Rawhide completely changed my life.

    What Rawhide does is take kids from situations where they’re not doing well, puts them somewhere different, and gives them a chance to change. Instead of being around friends that are also going down the wrong path, you’re around more positive people. Instead of having to fight to avoid victimization in difficult circumstances, Rawhide provides a tranquil place to live.

    Corey grew up in Milwaukee, where many people, especially black folks, face few opportunities and a violent environment. I imagine if he had grown up somewhere like where I live now, he probably would’ve never gotten in trouble in the first place. But Rawhide gave him that better environment.

    The letter included an envelope so I could reply to Corey, and I plan to write him later today. It’s wonderful to see a young person doing so well.

    If you want to support Corey and others like him at Rawhide, you can donate here. Your investment will pay the best sort of dividends.

  • What I Learned From a Conference Call With the Co-Founders of BioNTech

    Today, I had the opportunity to join a call organized by STAT News with the co-founders of BioNTech, the company behind the highly successful COVID vaccine. Ugur Sahin and Ozlem Tureci are incredibly impressive people. Here were some of the highlights:

    • BioNTech was working on cancer vaccines as COVID appeared, but after Ugur read early reports of COVID cases in China, they realized their technology was well suited to making a COVID vaccine
    • Wuhan is one of the most heavily connected cities in China, perhaps explaining how the pandemic spread so quickly
    • We can’t expect the vaccine rollout to go smoothly right at the beginning, but they are confident we’ll improve as we gain experience
    • We are likely to get some data on asymptomatic infections amongst the vaccinated in February. (This may have implications for how long we have to wear masks, etc.)
    • If we delay the 2nd dose of a COVID vaccine in order to get more people their first dose, we should avoid delaying by too much. Whether we delay is a risk/benefit calculation best left to governments.
    • The new technology they’re most excited about is using immune mechanisms against cancer. They have a drug that’s within weeks of beginning testing.

    These STAT Events are free and open to anyone. It was a fascinating call and I was honored to be able to ask a question to these incredible scientists (the answer is the last bullet point above). The recording of the meeting should go up on STAT’s website soon.

  • Could the MRNA Vaccines Used for COVID Also Cure Multiple Sclerosis?

    The vaccine blocked all clinical signs of MS in mice, while control animals experienced the typical symptoms of the disease. 

    Fierce Biotech

    BioNTech, the company behind one of the best COVID vaccines, has reported excellent results in curing an MS-like disease in mice. The treated animals showed no signs of the disease, and those that were already having MS symptoms got better. These results were recently published in the journal Science. You can find an excellent discussion of these results by the Harvard epidemiologist Eric Feigl-Ding here.

    This MS vaccine uses the same MRNA approach as the two most effective COVID vaccines. BioNTech plans to use a similar technique to produce personalized cancer vaccines.

    A new age in medicine may be dawning.

    “Forschungszentrum der Biotech-Unternehmen BioNTech AG und Ganymed Pharmaceuticals AG” by MWKEL-RLP is licensed under CC BY-NC 2.0

  • The Pace of Vaccination is Increasing Rapidly

    Take a look at the chart above…this is COVID vaccines administered daily (7 day moving average). We see a trend of rapid increase in the pace of vaccination. The numbers bounce around a bit from day to day, but I find this trend very encouraging along with the new federal policy to release 2nd doses and allow everyone over 65 to be vaccinated.

  • Vaccine Policy Just Changed in a Major Way

    The federal government will now start sending out all available doses of the COVID vaccine, rather than holding some in reserve for second doses, per The Wall Street Journal. It will also recommend the vaccine be available to everyone over age 65.

    Broader eligibility criteria have helped Israel vaccinate faster than any other country, and significant evidence has emerged for getting more people their first dose sooner. It’s great to see the government acting on this information.

    I strongly suspect we are in a race between new, more contagious variants of COVID and the vaccines. Right now, as far as we know, those variants aren’t that common in the US. But if we follow the path of the UK, they could quickly become dominant, resulting in an unprecedented burden on hospitals. We need to use this time to vaccinate as quickly as possible and prevent such a catastrophe.

  • Why I Started Giving Blood

    Last March, as COVID began to whallop the New York area, I sat on my couch refreshing the news over and over and getting increasingly paranoid. I’d check the case counts before I went to bed and then again as soon as I got up. I soon realized this was not a sustainable way to live.

    Then I saw an article in our local news that blood donations were particularly needed. Donations had dropped off because donors were afraid to go, but the needs remained. I sensed an opportunity to finally do something, as opposed to simply read more news and become more scared, which benefits no one.

    So I went to the New York Blood Center on East 67th street in Manhattan. The staff were very nice and the entire process took just a few minutes. Since then, I’ve gone every couple of months, enjoying the opportunity to do something positive and also the delicious snacks I get afterward. 🙂 Since donor volume was thin around the holidays, I even got a pair of special New York Blood Center socks when I donated shortly before Christmas!

    We all know giving blood helps others, but it may surprise you to learn that there can be significant health benefits for donors as well. Regular blood donation is linked to lower blood pressure and risk of heart attacks. Men seem to benefit more than women, since women have a natural way to get rid of blood through menstruation, but men do not.

    You also get a mini-checkup every time you donate. When you come in, they check your heart rate, blood pressure, and iron levels. It’s not much, but how many people get any sort of checkup every 8 weeks? Not many. I suspect this may be another reason donors tend to enjoy better health. Your blood is also screened for infectious diseases like HIV and the center will contact you if you test positive. I even found out I have a rare blood type, B-, which is particularly needed.

    Do you feel sick after? Not really, or at least I never do. The first time, I felt just a bit lightheaded, but then I drank a lot of water and immediately felt fine. My number one tip for feeling good after blood donation is to drink a lot of water. I generally consumed 1-2 liters.

    The last time I donated, I looked at the posters on the wall. There was a young Asian lady who had had dozens of transfusions after a car accident. Another poster showed a Marine veteran who needed transfusions during a surgery. I never served in the military, but it was satisfying to be able to serve in this way.

    The COVID risk seems minimal to me given that everyone is masked and temperature-checked, which is more than I can say for the grocery store! I’d encourage everyone to consider donating. It could make you healthier and save someone else’s life too!