Tremendous

An angel investor's take on life and business

  • Gyms Don’t Drive COVID Transmission…So Where Is Everyone?

    After I finished a workout last night, I found myself chatting with the gym’s owner for the first time. He told me that some classes would be cancelled this week, due to both a lack of instructors and students. He hoped that it would be just this week. He also said business was down over 80%. This despite having taken countless precautions, including temperature screening, distancing and masking.

    The data we have indicates that COVID transmission in gyms is very rare. In New York state, just 0.06% of cases could be traced to a gym. To put that in perspective, private gatherings in homes led to 74% of traceable cases. Further data from the UK and the University of Oregon Consulting Group also indicates minimal transmission in gyms.

    And it stands to reason to me that cases that did originate in gyms would be dramatically easier to trace than those that originated in most other settings. Gyms have a list of members and sign-in sheets. Restaurants, bars, or private gatherings generally don’t. So my intuition tells me that if anything, the case fraction attributable to gyms is probably an overestimate, although I cannot prove that.

    We should also bear in mind that every time we work out, we get healthier. Even if you do contract COVID, from whatever source, you’ll be in a far better position if your baseline level of health is higher.

    And yet people aren’t showing up at my gym like they used to. Why is that? I think the cause is a reasonable fear coupled with a lack of specific information. So, please share this info with whoever you can!

    I hope to see a smile on the owner’s face and full sign-up sheets soon!

    “Woman Exercising – Credit to https://bestpicko.com/” by Bestpicko is licensed under CC BY 2.0

  • Has Zimbabwe Found the Solution to the Mental Health Crisis?

    Many people have experienced worsening mental health since the COVID pandemic began. Many others struggled even before. But I came across an interesting article today about a very innovative program in Zimbabwe that just might have the solution. It’s called the Friendship Bench:

    This is a community-based psychological treatment programme delivered by over 700 trained community grandmothers in over 100 communities in Zimbabwe.

    In a country with just 13 psychiatrists for a population of 16 million, this model has helped expand mental health outreach.

    It has taken years to build the Friendship Bench model and show that through talk therapy, trained grandmothers can treat depression, anxiety and alleviate suicidal thoughts across communities in Zimbabwe and beyond.

    We tend to assume that only professionals can provide talk therapy, but Zimbabwe’s experience argues otherwise. Zimbabwe has few resources and so it was forced to innovate, but we could benefit from their discovery.

    Such a program is all the more feasible in the US or other wealthy countries, with our broad access to the internet and smartphones.

    P.S. This is by no means the first time major innovations have come from Zimbabwe. Lyft was originally called Zimride (Zimbabwe Ride) and was inspired by ridesharing systems there.

  • Reversing the Aging Process in Mouse Eyes… and Maybe Someday, Us?

    I just listened to a fascinating discussion with Dr. David Sinclair, PhD, on his lab’s recent success in reversing aging in mouse eyes. Sinclair and his team damaged the optic nerves of mice and then, using Yamanaka factors, reprogrammed the cells to “remember” their youthful vitality and regenerate. The mice could then see! The paper was recently published in the journal Nature.

    This has significant potential for treating glaucoma in humans as well as someday reversing aging in general. If cells can be reprogrammed to recover the information they had when they were young, many conditions associated with aging could be reversed.

    In this discussion (available as a YouTube video or a podcast), Dr. Sinclair also details some of the key things he does to try to prevent and reverse aging

    • Supplements/medication: NMN, resveratrol, oleic acid, metformin
    • Exercise, in particular weight training
    • Intermittent fasting, about 1.5 meals daily
    • Monitoring of biomarkers through regular blood testing. He uses a company called Inside Tracker and advises them. This is something I intend to look into further.
    • Wears Apple Watch and Oura Ring to track sleep, heart rate variability, etc. This and blood tests can provide an idea if certain interventions are working.

    I read Dr. Sinclair’s amazing book shortly after it came out and started taking NMN on that basis. I do seem more energetic these days, although whether that’s due to NMN is anyone’s guess.

    You can also get up-to-the-minute insights on aging research from Dr. Sinclair by going to his website here and signing up for his email list, Lifespan Insider (bottom right of page). I just did and am eagerly awaiting some useful tips!

  • I’ve Seen the Future and It’s in Israel

    By Day 23, which is 2 days after the second shot, there is a 60% drop in hospitalizations among vaccinated people aged 60-plus, Maccabi revealed after monitoring 50,777 patients. 

    Times of Israel

    Israel is already seeing its hard work pay off. It leads the world in COVID vaccination, and new data shows a dramatic decrease in hospitalizations just a few weeks after the 2nd dose. We are, unfortunately, moving more slowly than Israel, but we’ve adopted one lesson of theirs: opening vaccinations to all older people.

    This gives us a glimpse of the wonderful future we have to look forward to: an end to this pandemic. Our hospitals are strained and many are dying, but there is an end. It’s within reach, but we have to stretch a little further and grab it!

  • I Ate the Best Burger of My Life Outside in the Dead of Winter

    Find this and eat it!

    I celebrated my 35th birthday this weekend! My wife very kindly arranged for a hotel staycation in New York City, along with an outstanding meal. But there was one little problem. All indoor dining is closed in NYC. And it’s January.

    I used my winter camping experience to my advantage, swaddling myself in a base layer, down jacket, winter coat, and a fur hat fit for Siberia. We hustled to the Upper West Side.

    I was afraid we’d freeze solid, but we arrived at Bar Boulud to find a beautiful outdoor setup. They basically built a building on the sidewalk, with one side open for ventilation. That side faced the sidewalk, not the street, so no wind entered, and we were surrounded by huge heaters that kept us very comfortable. I was encouraged to see every table booked!

    We both ordered the outstanding Frenchie Burger. The flavor of the beef was intense, especially for someone like me who rarely eats meat, and it was topped with unctuous pork belly and oozing melted raclette cheese. A triumph! If you’re in the New York area and like burgers, this is a must-have.

    As we sipped coffee, I looked across the street to Lincoln Center, where my wife and I had enjoyed ballets and symphonies in the past. It occurred to me that being outside right now was not a hardship, but rather a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. There will be no outdoor dining next January. This beautiful structure will be taken down and never seen again. This was our one chance to enjoy this winter wonderland. And we savored it.

    I encourage you to think of today’s situation as not merely negative. To be sure, many are suffering now, and we must do what we can to help. But there are also unique experiences available today that will probably never be seen again. Get out there and enjoy them! Make some memories!

    Outdoor dining, even in the 28 degrees we found ourselves in on Saturday, is very doable and really quite fun. We were only slightly chilly, which was quickly overcome by hot coffee and delicious food. The fancier restaurants in particular have amazing outdoor setups that make the experience comfortable and memorable. My friend Jim* recently had a business dinner at Peter Luger Steakhouse in Brooklyn in a private little cabana and found himself entirely comfortable.

    Give it a shot and make a happy memory in this unique time!

    *Not his real name

  • The Sleep Hack I’m Loving

    Yesterday, my wife gave me a gift that will keep on giving: a sleep mask. She recently started using one and noticed the quality of her sleep improved enormously. I observed her, intrigued.

    Just before dinner, she presented me with a sleep mask of my very own! I took it for a, err, test drive, last night. I slept more deeply than I have in a long time, with less tossing and turning. I woke up an hour earlier than usual, dramatically more refreshed and energetic. My wife said she could easily tell I had much more energy than usual.

    Sleep has an enormous impact on health. Lack of sleep demolishes the immune system, doubles cancer risk, and can cause Alzheimer’s, coronary artery disease, obesity and diabetes. The list of conditions lack of sleep can cause is enough to keep you up all night!

    But for just a few dollars, you have a shot at really feeling rested in the morning. I don’t find the mask uncomfortable, and it’s very easy to put on. Anything that covers the eyes and is comfortable should work. The one I have is here.

    Sweet dreams!

  • What I Learned From an Investor Who Turned $100,000 into $100,000,000

    Above: Angel investor Jason Calacanis

    The angel investor Jason Calacanis got in on the ground floor of Uber, Thumbtack, and other highly successful software companies, multiplying his $100,000 investment into $100,000,000 in just 6 years. With results like that, you know I had to read his book!

    The idea of helping, even in a very small way, to build the future appeals to me a great deal. And if my investment multiplied many times over, well, I wouldn’t mind! 🙂 In this superb and brief book, Calacanis lays out a detailed game plan on how to achieve results like his.

    He suggests beginning with syndicate deals, in which an angel investor invests alongside more experienced angels. You can begin with as little as $1,000 per investment, and such syndicates can be found at AngelList, SeedVest, and elsewhere. In fact, the author has his own syndicate, here. Unlike most investment managers, the syndicate lead only gets paid if he scores for you. There is no management fee at all, but the lead does keep 20% of any profits for his/her trouble.

    You can build your skills, experience and connections in those syndicate deals, and then move on to deals on your own. Calacanis explains that you have to evaluate the founder himself/herself more than the product. It’s the person behind the company that will make or break it. Products can change a lot more easily than people can. What are is the founder’s chances of suceeding in this business, and in life?

    I was struck by how similar the approach to finding investments is to podcasting, journalism, or for that matter, blogging. Calacanis advises asking short questions and writing down the founder’s answers at length. Then, you write deal memos when you invest, to lay out the thinking behind the investment. These could help remind you of your reasoning if times get tough for the company, and also guide future investments.

    There’s a ton of actionable details in this book, and I won’t get into all of them here. But if you’re even remotely considering investing in early stage companies, I strongly suggest giving this entertaining and highly readable book a look!

  • How I Improved My Sleep and Protected Myself from COVID for $34

    Tell me why can’t this be love?

    This fall, I bought what might be the strangest anti-COVID device yet…a humidifier.

    Two, actually. I set them up in the living room and bed room and then went to work turning my dry apartment in the chilly New York area into a tropical paradise.

    Indoor humidity tends to fall in winter. Air is drier to begin with, and then it’s brought indoors and heated, drying it further. This has a significant impact on how long viruses live and how your body responds to them. Our cilia, whose job it is to keep invaders out of our respiratory tract, don’t work as well in dry conditions.

    Estimated virus half-life was more than 24 hours at 10 degrees C (50 degrees F) and 40 percent relative humidity, but only 90 minutes at 27 degrees C (80 degrees F) and 65 percent relative humidity.

    Prof. Akiko Iwasaki, PhD, Yale School of Medicine

    I got these to keep my wife and I safe from COVID, but I noticed a very pleasant side effect immediately: I was sleeping much better! My nasal passages would dry out overnight and my breathing would get more labored, causing me to wake. I mentioned the improved sleep to my wife, and she immediately agreed that my breathing sounded much nicer and I seemed to be waking less overnight.

    My friend Jim* came over for New Year’s and happened to take the seat right next to the humidifier. He liked it so much, he immediately ordered the exact same one for himself, right there on his phone! I hope he’s enjoying it.

    If you want to do the same, you can find it here. It was very easy to set up. I suggest one that warms the water, because it’s very pleasant. You want to avoid no-name manufacturers, because those humidifiers tend to leak. This one fits both criteria.

    You can even put some essential oils or Vicks into the included medicine cup. I haven’t done it yet, but it’s on my list. Sounds like heaven!

    You’ll also want hygrometers such as these to measure the humidity in your home. 40-60% is a good target. This way, you’ll know when you need to run the humidifiers and when you shouldn’t, to avoid mold growth.

    Enjoy in good health!

    *Not his real name

  • Why a Cloth Mask Isn’t Enough…Plus the Lowest Price I’ve Ever Seen on FDA Approved KN95’s

    Above: Me, an FDA Approved KN95, and a snowman.

    I am starting to see more and more people on the street wearing N95, KN95 and surgical masks, rather than cloth ones. That makes me really happy, because I know they’re a lot more effective. With a more contagious COVID variant from the UK spreading here, we need all the protection we can get. And with that in mind, I did a little Googling last night.

    The eminent Dr. Eric Topol encourages us to use better masks, like N95/KN95, to confront the new UK variant of COVID.

    My supply of KN95 masks, which filter much better than a cloth mask (and likely much better than most surgical ones also), was running low. I found an incredible deal on an FDA approved KN95 mask by Powecom at, of all places, Office Depot!

    I ordered 100 last night and they should be here by Friday, with free shipping. $1/each is unheardof. The lowest I’ve paid before is about $1.35. I was very pleased!

    You can see that these masks are FDA approved by going here. Go to Appendix A: Authorized Imported, Non-NIOSH Approved Respirators Manufactured in China (Updated: October 15, 2020). Then, see the manufacturer name, Guangzhou Powecom Labor Insurance Supplies Co. LTD, in the list.

    Happy hunting! I suggest ordering a larger quantity because this price is unusual.

  • My View on Markets in 2021

    My main business is investment, and some recent developments have gotten me thinking about where markets are headed this year. An end to the pandemic by Q2 2021 is predicted by multiple models (here and here). We’ve seen a substantial increase in personal income in 2020, largely due to the CARES Act. Much of that was saved and might fund consumption in 2021. More stimulus is likely forthcoming from the new administration and a Democratic Congress.

    The combination of an end to the pandemic, increased personal income/saving/pent up demand, and further stimulus seems to set up a great scenario for stocks this year.

    Meanwhile, Treasury yields dropped substantially in 2020 despite massive stimulus (and thus borrowing). The same may not occur this year, but suffice it to say the Treasury market seems to be able to absorb quite a lot of new issuance (see page 3 of this document).

    My investments are heavily weighted toward equities, and I am expecting a good year. Perhaps we’ll revisit this in a year and see if I was right!