Will America strike Iran? How big will Elon’s SpaceX IPO be? Today, I trolled Polymarket to find the most mispriced bets.
Here are three of the most interesting markets now…
US Strikes on Iran
Our carrier strike group is in position to attack Iran. Will it happen? If so, when?
Polymarket is projecting a 57% chance of a U.S. attack by the end of March. But Saudi Arabia and the UAE have closed their airspace to the United States in the event of a U.S. attack on Iran.
This pushback from close allies will give the Trump administration pause. I don’t expect any attack on Iran this year.
US Q4 GDP Growth
The AI build-out is driving some incredible economic growth. How did we do in Q4?
Polymarket is putting a print over 3.5% at a 71% chance. That seems low.
Some estimates are over 5%. Given the flurry of data center construction, I expect a print along those lines.
SpaceX IPO Price
SpaceX plans to go public this year. How big will the IPO be?
Tesla trades at 15 times revenue. Assume SpaceX is growing faster.
In 2025, SpaceX’s revenue is reported to be around $16B. If we assign the same multiple as Tesla, the market cap would be about $240B.
Even at twice Tesla’s multiple, it’s still under half a trillion. Polymarket puts an under-$1T IPO at 20%.
That looks undervalued to me!
Wrap-Up
As investors and entrepreneurs, we don’t deal in certainties. We deal in percentages.
I didn’t put real money on any of these bets. But going through Polymarket and assigning probabilities to important events is a great exercise. It helps me refine my thinking on the future.
Did I make the right bets? Leave a comment below and let me know what you think!
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