Note: This is not investment advice.

Gold is up 52% this year, even after a recent dip. This rally is based on speculation, not real concerns about US government finances.

Investors Still Love Treasuries

Some journalists claim that the US government’s finances have spooked investors. If that’s true, why aren’t investors demanding a higher return on our bonds?

Ten year Treasury yields are down significantly in 2025.

Dollar Holds Up Against Other Commodities

The dollar is also on firm ground compared to many major commodities. 

Gold and silver are up, but many other commodities priced in dollars are down. Oil, natural gas and wheat prices in dollars have all fallen this year.

Bitcoin’s Muted 2025

Another indicator of the dollar’s soundness is Bitcoin. 

Bitcoin’s supply is largely fixed. If the dollar were collapsing, we’d expect Bitcoin to go through the roof. 

But Bitcoin’s gains this year have been much lower than gold’s. 

Are Central Banks the Culprit?

What about Central Banks? Is their buying responsible for this year’s gold rally?

Central bank gold purchases have actually fallen in recent years. They don’t appear to be driving this year’s run-up.

Speculation: The Best Explanation

Investors aren’t worried about US government bonds. The dollar is holding up well against other commodities and Bitcoin.

So why is gold going through the roof?

For the same reason as meme stocks: pure speculation. People see a price going up and they rush to buy, hoping it will go up more.

Wrap-Up

I’m not chasing gold, silver, or whatever today’s hot asset is. I’m sticking to what I’ve done for years: meeting great founders, making investments, and building for the long term.

If I chase today’s hot thing, I might post gains for a while. But in the end, I’m going to get burned. 

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” – Benjamin Graham

Note: This is not investment advice.

More on markets:

Using Grok 3 to Manage My Stock Portfolio

Industrial Stocks: Free to a Good Home

Hetty Green: The Witch of Wall Street

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