Never Finished

April 28, 2023 tremendousblog Leave a comment

“While most people stop when they’re tired, I stop when I am done.”
David Goggins

David Goggins just might be the baddest man alive. He holds the world pull-up record (4,030 in 17 hours), has 70 ultramarathons under his belt…oh, and he’s also a Navy SEAL.

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As I closed the cover of his new book Never Finished, I knew I couldn’t do it justice in a single blog post. So before we head off for the weekend, I thought I’d share just a few of my favorite moments:

Seconds of Weakness

If you’re trying to lose weight, quit drinking, anything, your moment of weakness will be counted in seconds. Winning those few seconds is everything.

When I quit smoking in 2015, I was afraid I couldn’t do it. How can I be vigilant for the rest of my life?

But David is right. Any cigarette craving was brief and transient.

We can win those few seconds. Let’s get it.

Doing Hard Things

Doing a wall sit on Sunday, I felt the familiar burn in my thighs. Mentally, I resisted it.

Oh no, it hurts, make it stop!

But then I remembered what David said. Stop looking for a sign that the hard times will end.

Just notice the feeling, and accept that that’s the sensation you have right now.

Let’s Commit

“…until you start feeling a sense of pride and self respect in the work you do, no matter how small or overlooked those jobs might be, you will continue to half-ass your life.”
David Goggins

Like anyone, there are jobs I don’t want to do. Cleaning the tub is pretty high on that list.

All that bending. Hair. Eww.

But last Sunday, I scrubbed it spic and span and it was actually fun. Because instead of counting the seconds till I was done, I enjoyed the beautiful sheen I made with my own hands.

We don’t just do better work when we take pride in what we do. We have more fun!

Sgt. Jack

As hard as he is, David is only the second baddest character in his book. The gold has to go to Sgt. Jack, his grandfather.

This steely man faced down intense bigotry. He spent his life in the Army and retired to a comfortable, paid off home filled with family.

Sgt. Jack’s hard edge almost made David think his grandpa didn’t care about him. Quite the opposite.

Sgt. Jack taught David how to work. How to take pride in what he does.

How to be a man.

His most enduring lesson?

Through hard work “you will not only level the playing field but also surpass those born with more natural ability and advantages than you. Let your hours become days, then weeks, then years of effort. Allow discipline to seep into your cells until work becomes a reflex as automatic as breathing. With discipline as your medium, your life will become a work of art. “
David Goggins

Being Grateful for Difficulty

It’s one of the hardest races on earth. The Moab 240, run yearly in Utah, lasts for days and requires an ascent approximately equal to the height of Mount Everest.

Of course, David was there.

And not only there. He was among the leaders.

But a wrong turn and a thyroid issue waylaid him. Now he wasn’t just way behind — he was seriously ill.

But David controlled his mind:

“”….I had been gifted another rare opportunity to test myself in adverse conditions and become more. “”
David Goggins

He recovered his legs and finished the race.

Tough times suck. But in our modern, flabby society, they’re also a gift.

You’re gonna love this book. Grab yourself a copy!

Now, I think I’ll have some cookies. 🙂 Have a great weekend, everyone!

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Business, Technology

Right Founder. Wrong Market.

April 27, 2023 tremendousblog 5 Comments

I have a problem. I invested in an amazing founder.

But he’s in the wrong market.

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His name is Jim. He runs a consumer SaaS company.

Actually, his name isn’t Jim and that’s not his market either. This is a composite.

Jim works really hard. He’s also quite innovative.

Jim finds customer service people at Home Depot. He picks whoever is most helpful and makes them associates in customer success at his startup.

It’s a genius idea!

But Jim’s company is barely growing. They’re also burning a great deal of money.

Being in consumer, their customer acquisition cost is extremely high. After the iOS 14 update in May of 2021, it quadrupled.

They have fought tooth and nail ever since to get it back to a manageable level.

And they succeeded! Thing is though, Google is about to do the same thing this year.

And it starts all over again.

Jim also deals with an enormous amount of customer churn. Individuals love to try a product for a little while and then leave.

I recently subscribed to HBO Max so I could watch Succession. After just a couple of weeks, I cancelled it.

They even offered me a free month. I declined. I know, I’m extremely cheap.

So are a lot of other people. That’s a big problem for Jim.

Remember, when I told you Jim works really hard?

Normally, that’s an incredibly good trait. But not this time.

Being really hard working and unwilling to give up is actually a huge problem here. Jim keeps beating his head against the wall.

Nothing is working…much. The company is growing a little and burn is down. But still, it’s not really going anywhere.

What would I like Jim to do?

Fire everyone but the co founders. Trash the existing business completely.

Use whatever cash is left to find a totally new business. Start with a blank sheet of paper.

Someday, Jim might do this. But probably not.

After all, he never gives up.

None of this is Jim’s fault. But that doesn’t change the fact that our goal of creating an enduring, multibillion dollar company isn’t happening.

So Francis, why don’t you talk to Jim? Why don’t you tell him what you’re saying to us here?

I’m a minority investor. I’m not on the board.

I have no right to say this to a founder. And even if I did, they would never listen to me.

So instead of telling him, I’m telling all of you.

Are you a founder? Be like Jim.

Be tenacious. Work hard. Innovate.

But when something is only kinda sorta working for a very long time, don’t be like Jim.

Give up. Start over. Start fresh.

It’s gonna hurt big time. But it’s what you have to do.

Are you a Jim? Do you know one?

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From $10 Billion to Zero — Late Stage Ice Age

Down Rounds Everywhere

From Seed to $10M ARR

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Business, Technology

From $10 Billion to Zero — Late Stage Ice Age

April 26, 2023 tremendousblog 6 Comments

“…if you’re a Series C stage startup, you’re a late stage startup, with let’s call it a pre-AI model, the spigot is just turned off completely.”
David Sacks

The year was 2021, and late stage startups never had it so good.

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Tiger Global was ripping $100 million checks into everything in sight. Not wanting to be left behind, other big hedge funds dumped cash out of helicopters, buying everything in sight.

The bet: that buying into a startup that would IPO soon was a sure thing.

The price would go up in those last few years in the private markets. The hedge fund would take home princely gains, and all would be right with the world.

Cue that record scratch sound effect…

“The game done changed.”
“The game the same. Just got more fierce.”
The Wire

Funding for late stage startups no longer exists. Period.

Think I’m exaggerating? Look at this chart from Crunchbase:

Series C funding has dropped from $10 billion to effectively zero in April. OpenAI might be the only company that can actually raise.

Many of the biggest late stage investors are no longer investing. Period.

I haven’t seen Tiger in a late stage deal in a long time. Same goes for the other big funds.

In general, I see almost no late stage deals. What few I do see, may fail.

I hear that even if Tiger invested a fortune in your company, you cannot get them on the phone. Whoever led the investment may be gone.

I cannot verify that, and it may not be true, so take it with a grain of salt.

When I do see the big hedge funds in a deal today (rare), it’s always early stage. I think they’ll make the same mistakes there too.

But what about all that dry powder?

VC funds are sitting on billions they have raised but not deployed. Surely startups can grab a little of that, right?

Not so fast.

“This idea that there’s tons of dry powder sitting out there, I think is a myth. Or maybe it’s there but there’s no willingness to deploy it.”
David Sacks

The Limited Partners who put money into the VC fund may be telling it to pull back. Or maybe they’re not even meeting their commitments at all.

Get to breakeven and live to fight (and raise) another day. That’s the best choice for late stage companies today — and most early stage companies too!

You cannot count on fundraising right now. If you do count on it, you could quickly cease to exist.

For late stage companies making tens or hundreds of millions in revenue, getting to breakeven should be no problem. But many refuse to do it.

“What steps were taken to cut costs before you just went to the investors to pony up more money?
David Sacks

That’s the question every investor is asking!

I don’t do late stage. But when one of my companies isn’t meeting targets and is running out of money, I want to know what they did to cut burn.

If they didn’t do enough, I question the founder’s leadership. And I close the checkbook.

“Management has told you they’re incapable of running this business, this concern, in a thoughtful way.”
Jason Calacanis

Or in other words, this company is going to be a 0 anyway. No sense putting more money in.

Sound harsh? Yeah, it is.

So’s business, sometimes.

What do you think of today’s funding market? Leave a comment and let us know!

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Down Rounds Everywhere

From Seed to $10M ARR

VC Whiners

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Business, Health, Science, Technology

Reversing Aging in Primates

April 25, 2023 tremendousblog Leave a comment

Researchers have reversed some signs of aging in mice. But it had never been done in primates — until now.

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Age reversal works in primates to restore vision. Announced by my collaborator Dr. Bruce Ksander & @lifebiosciences. Next up: age reversal in humans.
How’s that @elonmusk? 🚀https://t.co/qLCixcbPE0 1/10… pic.twitter.com/ZQUxz5Rymb
— David Sinclair (@davidasinclair) April 24, 2023

In what appears to be a major scientific breakthrough, Life Biosciences presented results showing the reversal of damage to the eye in non-human primates. From Life Bio’s press release:

Life Bio’s lead platform reprograms the epigenome of older animals to resemble that of younger animals via expression of three Yamanaka factors, Oct4, Sox2, and Klf4, collectively known as OSK. The approach partially reprograms cells to resemble a more youthful state while retaining their original cellular identity. Previous data from Life Bio and academic researchers, which were also presented at ARVO 2023, have shown that treatment with OSK reverses retinal aging and restores vision in old mice in a mouse model of glaucoma. Now, with the data presented today at ARVO, the company has demonstrated restoration of visual function and increased nerve axon survival in [a non-human primate] model that mimics human NAION deficits in retinal ganglion cells.

The researchers intentionally damaged the eyes of primates with lasers. Gruesome, I know.

Then, they gave a series of injections that used Yamanaka factors to reprogram the cells, reversing the damage.

Similar eye problems can occur in humans, often associated with age. If researchers can reverse them in non-human primates, perhaps humans are next.

Professor David Sinclair of Harvard Medical School co-founded Life Bio. Sinclair’s lab did something similar in mice, published in Nature in 2020.

The recent Life Bio results are a corporate press release, not a peer reviewed study. But given this team’s track record, I’d bet the publication is coming any day now.

Consider the path of this research. First it’s in a test tube, then a mouse, then a monkey.
We’re getting closer and closer to humans.

Of course, this result is only about eyes. But if a few injections can fix that, what else can they fix?

Moreover, we’re seeing rapid progress on two fronts: genetics and AI. Where might this lead?

Perhaps in the near future, humans will live to be 250 years old. Throughout our lifetimes, we’ll be 100X more capable, thanks to our AI assistants.

And when medicine can no longer keep us going, we upload our consciousness to our preferred cloud provider and, in a sense, live forever.

That’s a future I look forward to.

What do you think is the future of longevity? Leave a comment and let us know!

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Reversing the Aging Process in Mouse Eyes… and Maybe Someday, Us?

Let’s Double the Human Population

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Photo: “Close-Up of the Human Eye – Primer plano del ojo humano” by Hugo Quintero is licensed under CC BY 2.0.

Business, Technology

Down Rounds Everywhere

April 24, 2023 tremendousblog 2 Comments

“It’s an absolute bloodbath.”
Cameron Lester, Jefferies.

Down rounds in unicorn startups are everywhere in today’s funding crunch. Should we be worried?

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From a report out this morning in Bloomberg:

Toward the end of 2022, down rounds hit near five-year highs, according to research firm Prequin. And early data for the first quarter shows roughly 7.5% of all venture funding rounds in US were down rounds, according to PitchBook — a number it expects will climb. High-profile companies like financial giant Stripe Inc., Swedish payments startup Klarna Bank AB and security firm Snyk have already taken valuation cuts, and others like Blockchain.com are said to be in talks to do the same.

Down rounds feel rotten.

You’re no longer uppy and to the righty. Founders and employees could lose millions in paper gains. Investors’ performance takes a hit.

Sounds scary right? Well, it’s about to get worse:

“We expect down rounds, especially toward the second half of this year, to really pick up,” said PitchBook analyst Kyle Stanford.

Many advise companies that a down round is better than no round, and they should take the money at whatever terms available.

I disagree.

Big, late-stage startups could reach profitability. Then, they have no need to raise. If they choose to do so, it will be on their own terms.

But that’s hard!

Sure it is. No one enjoys layoffs.

Okay, maybe Mark Zuckerberg.

But if a billion dollar business cannot stop losing money, is it a viable business? How could a company supposedly be worth so much but completely unable to turn a profit, even of $1?

Reaching profitability is a great exercise for any business. If your gross margins are negative, you’ll find out in a hurry.

Finding out your business isn’t viable is hard. But at least you know.

Then, you have a chance to retool it before it’s too late.

You also have a chance to grow into an enduring, highly profitable public company. That’s our goal — right?

Perhaps not.

For too many startups during the bull market, fundraising became an end in itself. They forgot about building a viable business because they didn’t need to!

After all, there was always another round coming.

Those days are over. And good riddance.

But we investors can’t blame founders. We enabled them, every step of the way.

The past is the past. What matters today is to build and fund viable businesses that become major, enduring companies.

Anything else is noise.

How do you view down rounds? Leave a comment and let us know!

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From Seed to $10M ARR

I See Negative Gross Margin Businesses

VC Whiners

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Fasting for a 53 Pound Weight Loss

April 21, 2023 tremendousblog 1 Comment

Did anyone not get fat during COVID?

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I know I did. With snacking one of the few activities still permissible by law, I ballooned up to 219 pounds by the summer of 2021.

Little things show you it’s gone too far.

Bending over to tie my shoes was no picnic. Ahh….picnics….

I knew I had to make a change. And while moderation can be a tough balance, you know what’s pretty simple?

Eating nothing.

I experimented with various fasting schedules until I found one that resulted in weight loss, week after week.

Here’s how I did it:

Schedule

Sunday: Skip breakfast and eat dinner only. (I’m not really into lunch.)

Monday: Fast all day.

Tuesday: Eat a normal, moderate diet.

Wednesday: Same.

Thursday: Fast all day.

Friday: Cheat day!

I eat as much as I want all day, including my favorite foods. Cookies, ice cream, chips, you name it.

But those foods are off limits the rest of the week.

Consuming a lot of calories one day per week can keep your metabolism high. It tells your body not to go into “starvation mode” and expend as little energy as possible to survive.

After all, the feast is coming!

I find including a cheat day makes it much easier for me to eat healthy the rest of the week.

It’s not that I can never have cookies. Just not until Friday.

Saturday: Eat a normal, moderate diet.

Workouts

I also work out five times a week. I generally do 4 cardio sessions of 30 minutes each and a strength session of about 30 minutes.

I try to put as many workouts as I can on fast days. Fasting and cardio together may improve longevity.

Electrolyte Supplementation

The key to fasting is keeping electrolyte levels in a healthy range. When your electrolytes get low, your life sucks.

You’re tired, your muscles ache, and your heart can race. Just trust me, it’s not pleasant.

So I never fast without electrolyte supplementation. I like to consume 4-6 eight ounce glasses of electrolyte replacement drink per day.

I usually buy a powdered electrolyte mix from Dollar General, which works great. I’ve also had good results with Liquid IV and Pedialyte.

Isn’t Fasting Dangerous?

Actually, fasting has a ton of health benefits.

In addition to weight loss, you can improve insulin resistance and immune response. You may even live longer too!

But of course, everyone’s body is different. Discussing it with your doctor is always a good idea.

Wrap-Up

If you’re getting chubby, you probably have a hard time with portion sizes. I do too!

That’s the magical thing about fasting. Portion sizes are easy.

Zero!

You also have a ton of free time to work, enjoy the outdoors, and pursue hobbies. It’s amazing how time consuming cooking, eating, and clean-up can be.

If you give it a shot, let me know how it goes! And when your fast is over, get one of these. 🙂

Have you tried fasting? Why or why not?

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Business, Technology

From Seed to $10M ARR

April 20, 2023 tremendousblog 3 Comments

I hadn’t heard from one of my companies in over a year. I was starting to get worried. Turns out, they were busy.

When one of your seed investments is hitting $10M ARR, man…🤯
— Francis Santora🐿️ (@FrancisPSantora) April 19, 2023

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When I heard from the founder yesterday, I was stunned. The little seed stage SaaS company I backed in the summer of 2021 was now doing $10 million a year in revenue.

Wow!

When you see one of your companies go from a fledgling startup to a significant business, it’s an incredible feeling. Here are a few things I learned along the way:

Have a Clear Value Prop

I can’t get into specifics on what the company does. But its value proposition to customers was very clear.

Customer after customer dramatically increased revenue with their software. It pays for itself many times over.

When you have a clear value proposition, sales gets a lot easier. And as that sales team cranks, your company grows fast.

Metrics Matter

On any conceivable SaaS metric, these guys were crushing it when I invested. Revenue was growing 25% month over month, LTV was 50 times CAC, and the company was already at breakeven.

The companies that were most successful before you invested continue to be the most successful afterward.

Don’t let anyone tell you the numbers don’t matter. They matter a lot.

Did I Help?

Honestly, I’ve probably added less value to this company than practically any other in my portfolio.

Why? Because they never need any help!

I introduced them to a few engineers early on. But by and large, I’ve just sat tight.

My most successful companies usually have few if any asks for investors. That said, I’m there for them if things ever turn tough.

No Distractions

I’ve never seen this founder on Twitter. He has yet to turn up at a networking event.

Sometimes the most vocal people aren’t the ones who are really crushing it.

The team also never got distracted.

They built a relatively simple but very useful product. Then they relentlessly scaled it.

They didn’t have a metaverse strategy. They never released an NFT.

They just stuck to their knitting and signed up more customers.

This is Repeatable

What struck me more than anything is how repeatable this investment is. I wish I could tell you I had a “Eureka!” moment and saw the future clearly.

I just reviewed the product, looked at the traction, and met with the founder. The product seemed very useful, traction was great, and the founder impressed me.

So I gave them some money. Simple as that.

I don’t see any reason why I or another investor couldn’t find 3 more of these. In fact, I intend to!

What have you seen in highly successful startups? Leave a comment and let us know!

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Revenge Startups – Yum!

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Business, Technology

VC Whiners

April 19, 2023 tremendousblog 3 Comments

Turns out having coffee meetings can be awfully stressful. Or so say some VC’s complaining of “burnout.”

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From an article out today in Sifted:

Thirteen investors that Sifted spoke to described seeking intensive professional help, taking months off work and having friends and loved ones cut ties with them due to the stresses of the job. They described having to be on call for partners at all hours, losing huge chunks of their free time to attend the “right” events and facing pressure to be constantly accessible through social media.

Gee, were the canapés not up to snuff?

Much of this stress is the result of intense pressure from a fund’s investors — limited partners — to produce good returns.

Let’s stop and ponder the absurdity of that statement. Producing good returns with LP money is precisely what the VC said they would do!

that’s literally the product we sold

🤯
— Rod (@rod_mallo) April 19, 2023

If I own a shoe store, and you come in and ask me for a pair, should I complain of the pressure to bring you some Nikes?

We VC’s and angel investors must remember we are in an enormously privileged position.

When I was little, my mother worked as a home health aide for minimum wage. She hurt her back and had her achilles tendon run over by a heavy, motorized wheelchair.

And I never heard her complain 1/10th as much as these millionaires.

Being a VC is an unusual job. No one has to do it.

So if you don’t want to do the job, I suggest you get out.

Can being an investor wear you out a little bit sometimes? Sure.

That’s when you shut down the laptop for the day and put on Better Call Saul.

Do you get to the point where every pitch starts to sound the same? Yes, after a while.

Then take a little vacation! If Twitter is any indication, VC’s spend plenty of time on the slopes already.

We investors are lucky. We get to help decide what the future will be.

Founders rely on us. They need capital, introductions, and advice.

And their needs don’t always come during normal business hours.

Jobs and livelihoods are at stake. We can either take it seriously, or we can start looking for another job.

And let’s never forget that our work is dramatically easier than the founders’. They bust their butts on our behalf, day and night.

We owe it to them to keep our complaints to ourselves. And if you ever hear me sounding like these folks in Sifted, please, give me a kick in the pants.

What do you think of life as an investor? Leave a comment and let us know!

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Food, NYC Area

Beef Tartare and More at Locanda Verde

April 18, 2023 tremendousblog 1 Comment

As I slid through the boisterous crowd, my mind was completely focused. Only one thing mattered: beef tartare.

This is Locanda Verde, an Italian restaurant in Tribeca, New York City.

Locanda verde means “green inn” in Italian. The name is apt — there’s an inviting rear garden.

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“Have you been here before?” I asked the lady next to me.

“Never.”

“Try the beef tartare.”

“I see.”

Okay, I guess she wasn’t as excited as I was. More for your old buddy Francis.

Soon, the mythical dish hit our table. There was only one question — if I grab for it instantly, will I seem gauche?

Caution to the wind!

I gobbled one of the little beef toasts, delighting in the savory flesh dressed with fine olive oil. The bread is an airy sourdough, a perfect complement.

Eyes akimbo. Will anyone notice if I grab a second?

It seems not. Perhaps my dinner companions were a bit put off by raw meat.

Oh, there were other dishes. And they were superb.

I particularly loved the pillowy ricotta, surely one of the house’s most popular plates.

Nor is the mushroom pasta to be missed. The chef uses a mix of mushrooms, always the best way to show these fungi at their finest.

And never forget cake!

I contemplated a second piece of the chocolate tart, but even I couldn’t do it. I’ve failed you, I know.

The tart is rich and permeated by the flavors of cocoa and espresso. There’s even a slight crust of powdered sugar, carmelized by torch.

Locanda Verde takes the small things seriously.

Why serve a tart when you can serve a bruleed tart? Why use one kind of mushroom when you can use three, each with a distinct flavor?

It’s those little details that add up to a fine meal. My hat is off to Locanda Verde for doing honor to this food I love so much.

What’s your favorite Italian spot? Leave a comment and let us know!

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Food, NYC Area

BBQ Stingray at Urban Hawker

April 17, 2023 tremendousblog 3 Comments

“We should try the barbecue stingray,” she exclaimed.

“Are you serious?”

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Oh, she was. So on a recent New York evening, my friend and I found ourselves digging into something we never knew existed.

This is Mr. Fried Rice at Urban Hawker. Urban Hawker is an outstanding Singaporean food hall in midtown Manhattan that was one of Anthony Bourdain’s last projects.

Hawker centers are a tradition in Singapore, as well as Hong Kong and Malaysia. They serve simple, delicious food to people from all walks of life in a fun, homey setting.

The food is so good that these tiny stands have won Michelin stars, normally reserved for fine dining restaurants. In 2020, UNESCO even listed the humble hawker center as part of the world’s intangible cultural heritage.

Urban Hawker is the only Singaporean hawker center outside Southeast Asia.

Our little hockey puck erupted with lights and vibration — our food was ready! In life, there is no moment more exciting than this.

I gingerly carried the clamshell containers back to our table. Drop them and lose a friend forever.

“When is she going to get back from the bathroom — and can I wait that long?”

Her timing was impeccable. She slid into the booth and we popped open our containers, unleashing the smell of fresh fish and fragrant rice.

The sauce was a wonderful surprise — redolent of hot chili and deeply flavorful. I was rather unsure how to eat the fish, so I started with the massive mound of rice.

Each grain shined with crackly unctuousness. I crudely shoveled rice into my mouth like a bulldog at dinner.

Okay, let’s figure out this fish.

Stingray has a lot of bones. For Americans like me who are less accustomed to fish with bones, it can be a bit of a puzzle.

But as I plunged my fork into its depths, it soon rewarded me. The flesh is delicate and toothsome with a slight whiff of the sea.

My friend’s childhood in China seemed to have given her a distinct advantage. She surgically dissected the flesh with her fork, scraping the tines through the bones like a comb.

“Ah, that’s how you do it.”

It reminded me of when I took a Korean friend out for calzones. I neatly sliced mine and gobbled it down, smile on my face.

After a few minutes, I looked over at my dinner companion.

She had taken the calzone apart, turning it back into something resembling a pizza. Nothing had been consumed.

“How do you eat this?”

I guess she felt a little like I felt with that stingray. But for both of us, once an old hand showed us the way, we never looked back.

For all its problems, this is why I love New York. People from every culture come together and eat good food and are happy.

I hope we can do it for a hundred years. Cent’anni.

What are your favorite restaurants? Leave a comment and let me know!

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