Goldman Sachs Under Federal Investigation

Goldman Sachs is under multiple federal investigations of its consumer business. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and the Federal Reserve are probing areas from credit cards to bank accounts.


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From a new report in the trade journal PYMNTS:

…in its annual report — filed Friday (Feb. 24) — Goldman amended its earlier statement to say it was cooperating with the CFPB “and other governmental bodies relating to investigations and/or inquiries concerning GS Bank USA’s credit card account management practices.”

But that’s not all:

The news comes a little more than a month after reports that the Federal Reserve was investigating Marcus, Goldman Sachs’ consumer business. A report by the Wall Street Journal citing unnamed sources said the Fed is examining the bank’s oversight of the consumer business, its management and governance, and how it handles customer problems.

These investigations could result in huge fines or worse. However, no wrongdoing has been proven thus far.

What we do know is that Goldman is losing a fortune on its consumer bank. Losses total over $3 billion at several units since 2020 alone.

Consumer banking was supposed to help Goldman diversify.

Its mainstays of mergers, IPO’s and trading are boom and bust businesses. But consumers tend to keep their bank account and credit cards in the same place for many years.

Instead, Goldman is posting its worst quarterly results in a decade. Add that to numerous scandals and Goldman is looking like the weak man on Wall Street.

Now that multiple federal agencies are poking around inside Goldman Sachs, there’s no telling what they’ll find. I’m willing to bet there’s more chicanery we don’t yet know about.

I was always reluctant to open a Marcus account, despite the great rates. Doing business with a company with such a checkered history scares me.

I guess I’m not alone.

What do you think investigators will find at Goldman?

Leave a comment and let me know!

More on markets:

SEC Refuses to Address Massive Fraud in Markets

Short Sellers Lose $17 Billion in 2023

Major Hedge Fund Down 54% — Survival in Doubt

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Photo: Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon. Unleashing the Potential Of Women Entrepreneurs Through Finance and Markets” by World Bank Photo Collection is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0.

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Sequoia Dumps Citizen: Ruthless, or Reasonable?

When a startup is struggling, what’s the duty of investors? This question is front and center as Sequoia has walked away from controversial startup Citizen, cutting it off from funding and resigning from the board.

From a report out this weekend in the Financial Times:

Sequoia Capital has resigned from the board of controversial crime-tracking app Citizen after it told the company it would not participate in its latest attempt to raise capital amid a funding crunch for tech start-ups.

[Sequoia partner Mike] Vernal resigned from the board earlier this month after Citizen’s management approached venture investors with a proposed deal to raise new funds and recapitalise the business by restructuring its debt and equity, said two people close to the deal.

The deal will virtually wipe out Sequoia’s investment. The firm’s decision to stop funding Citizen has some in Silicon Valley crying foul:

One of the people close to Citizen said Sequoia’s decision was “ruthless” and that, as its earliest backer, it had “abandoned” the company in its hour of need.

Across Silicon Valley, venture capitalists are carrying out an “internal triage” of the “companies that matter . . . and those where the [return on investment] makes continuing to invest irrational”, the person added.

There is no public information on Citizen’s performance. But clearly, it’s not doing well

Successful startups don’t see their equity wiped out.

So Sequoia is faced with a tough choice. Should it give more money to a struggling company, or cut its losses?

It chose the latter. And since Sequoia will no longer be a meaningful investor in Citizen, Vernal naturally stepped down from the board.

The “hour of need” hand-wringing misses the point. No one is entitled to venture capital.

If a company isn’t performing, how can Sequoia put more of its investors’ money where it’s likely to be lost? Sequoia has a responsibility to the universities, pensions, and charities it works for.

We also have no idea what internal dysfunction may exist at Citizen. Its founder has shown poor judgment in the past:

In 2021, its founder Andrew Frame faced scrutiny for offering a reward to find a man wrongly suspected of arson. Prior to Citizen, Frame created a similar app called Vigilante that was banned by Apple over content concerns.

Declining to re-invest doesn’t mean Sequoia won’t support Citizen in other ways. The firm can provide advice, introductions, and more.

But this is business, and capital goes to the people who can best use it.

Whenever you get a dollar from an investor, assume it’s the last. Find paying customers and get your company on firm footing.

Then, VC’s will be begging to invest. And you can be the one to choose.

What do you think of Sequoia’s decision?

Leave a comment and let me know!

More on tech:

Sequoia Cutting Back on China Investments

The Hard Thing About Hard Things

I See Negative Gross Margin Businesses

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Photo: Citizen Founder & CEO Andrew Frame

Sequoia Cutting Back on China Investments

No US venture firm is bigger in China than Sequoia Capital. But as tensions rise, even Sequoia is pulling back.


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From a report out this morning in The Wall Street Journal:

Sequoia Capital has started screening some investments its China arm is considering in technology companies there for U.S. national-security concerns, according to people familiar with the matter, as Washington steps up efforts to stop American money from funding China’s development of sensitive technologies.

Sequoia doubled down on China as recently as last year, raising a record $8.5 billion to invest there. But now, the firm is pulling back:

Between 2021 and 2022, Sequoia China made at least 20 investments in Chinese semiconductor and related companies. Since the screening process was implemented in the autumn of 2022, the firm hasn’t made any investments in Chinese semiconductor or quantum-computing startups from its new funds, which were raised in July 2022. 

As dominant as Sequoia is in America, it’s even bigger in China. The firm has a piece of almost every major Chinese tech company, from Bytedance to JD to Meituan.

Even as Sequoia faces scrutiny from US regulators, China may also crack down on its investments. After all, does an increasingly nationalist CCP want foreigners owning some of China’s most important technology?

Personally, I never invest in China. The country lacks the rule of law.

This means no matter how well I do, the government can come and take it all away in an instant.

Don’t believe me? Consider the sudden ban of education tech companies, driving their stocks to near zero overnight.

It’s unwise for US investors to put money in China. But there are advantages for the US government in letting it happen.

Major investors like Sequoia usually have information rights and a board seat. They’re privy to tons of confidential information about a company.

Having that information in the hands of a US firm could serve our strategic interests.

In all, I think China’s tech sector is toast. Top entrepreneurs are leaving and investors are spooked by a Communist government run amok.

There are plenty of other promising markets out there.

Would you invest in China? Why or why not?

Have a great weekend everyone!

More on tech:

Where Is Bao Fan?

I See Negative Gross Margin Businesses

Top VC Firms Have Great Returns…Right?

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Photo: “China’s Growth Context: Neil Shen Nanpeng” by World Economic Forum is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 2.0.

The Meatball of the Gods at Pasta by Hudson

The steaming pastas arrived, creatively nestled in Chinese takeout containers. I thanked my personal God as I dove into the best meatball in New York.


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Pasta by Hudson is an outstanding little Italian restaurant in Chelsea.

Inside, there are just two tables. It’s always the holes in the wall that have the best food!

Pasta by Hudson does everything themselves. They even make their own dry pasta, which I have never seen anywhere else.

You can taste the difference. In my classic bucatini with meatball and tomato sauce, I could practically see the garden where the tomatoes and basil were grown.

The meatball was rich, juicy, and deeply flavorful.

And putting cheese inside? Genius.

My friend tucked into her shrimp scampi. Naturally, I had to beg for a bite.

The pasta was spicy, oily, delicious. The shrimp were still tender — a rarity in restaurants.

And by the way, the portions are huge. When she couldn’t finish hers, I selflessly offered the lady my assistance.

I love Italian food, but I hate most Italian restaurants. They’re long on ambience and short on actual food quality.

Some have degenerated so far that they simply reheat premade food! This is an insult to our ancestors.

At Pasta by Hudson, they really care. That’s where I want to be.

And it doesn’t hurt that the owner, Brandon Fay, has a big smile and a hearty welcome for everyone who comes through the door. This man is doing what he was born to do.

Pasta by Hudson offers a wide variety of pastas from carbonara to bolognese. I particularly love the salmon and tomato pastas.

And if you’re low carb, I don’t know a better salad in New York! Sauteed mushrooms, fresh mozzarella, balsamic — chef’s kiss.

It’s telling that the same level of care goes into a humble salad as the most complex dish on the menu.

Pasta by Hudson even has pizza! I can never resist the macaroni, but I really must try the pies some day.

If you want to eat some of the best Italian food in New York City at an incredible price, Pasta by Hudson is for you. Bring your appetite!

What’s your favorite Italian in New York? Leave a comment and let me know!

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Korean Noodle Heaven at Food Gallery 32

Whole Fish and Banku, Ghanaian Style

The Best Mexican Food Is In…New Jersey?

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Where Is Bao Fan?

Bao Fan did everything right. Despite being one of China’s top tech investors, Bao kept a low profile and hewed to the Communist Party line. Then, he disappeared.


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From an article out this morning in The New York Times:

…on Valentine’s Day last week, rumors started circulating that Mr. Bao had gone missing. His company later confirmed his disappearance in a regulatory filing.

China’s tech world is watching closely what will happen to Mr. Bao, who knows or has worked with nearly every mover and shaker in the industry. He is not as well known outside the business world but is just as symbolic of the industry’s rising presence in China as Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba, who has largely vanished from public view after falling out with the government in 2020.

There’s no one quite like Bao Fan in the United States. Half investment banker, half venture capitalist, Bao was intimately involved in almost every major Chinese tech company.

He brought together warring startups to create giants like Didi and Meituan. Bao prospered, and so did the companies he helped.

His influence reached so far that people said, “If you don’t know Bao Fan, you haven’t made it.”

But new Chinese leaders took a darker view of Bao’s success.

The government began investigating one of his top lieutenants, Cong Lin. China’s government has implied that Bao is assisting in that investigation.

But no one knows where Bao is. Or if he’s even alive.

Clearly, Bao could’ve helped an investigation while retaining his post. It’s more likely he’s being abused and intimidated and as an example to others.

Indeed, China’s tech industry is watching closely:


A tech founder who had worked with Mr. Bao on deals wrote on social media that entrepreneurs were like “frightened birds.” “Confidence is slow to build but quick to dissipate,” he wrote. “Without confidence, who will build factories, start companies and invest in the future?”

Many Chinese entrepreneurs are quietly leaving the country with their millions.

More and more, you will see rich business owners leaving China, along with ambitious young people. Why spend a lifetime building a business if the government can just take it away?

Dictatorship is the ultimate single point of failure. One bad man in the wrong spot, and your country goes down in flames.

Xi is that man. But the Communist system is what gives him the power he has.

From an interview in The Japan Times:

“This is part of the evolution of the Communist Party,” said Drew Thompson, a visiting research scholar at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore. “Private entrepreneurs — high-profile, wealthy people — are increasingly incompatible with ‘common prosperity’ and the direction that Xi Jinping has taken.”

What do you think the future holds for Chinese tech? Leave a comment and let me know!

More on tech:

Top VC Firms Have Great Returns…Right?

Google is Losing the AI Race

Consumer Startups: What Works and What Doesn’t

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Short Sellers Lose $17 Billion in 2023

A surprise rally this year has hit short sellers hard. Losses total nearly $17 billion already in 2023:

From a report out this morning in Bloomberg:

Ten of the most-shorted stocks this year delivered almost $17 billion in combined mark-to-market losses for bears through Thursday, according to data-analytics firm S3 Partners. Tesla, which has surged 67% so far in 2023, leads the group by dealing a $7.2 billion blow to traders shorting the stock. The electric-car maker is followed by Nvidia Corp., Apple, Meta, Amazon.com Inc. and Microsoft Corp.

Heavily shorted meme stocks have also delivered painful lessons to short sellers.

AMC Entertainment Holdings is up 38% this year. GameStop Corp has jumped 17%.

What we’re seeing is an overall risk-on attitude. All the assets we hated in 2022, from crypto to meme stocks to tech, are surging in 2023.

Hedge funds shorting meme stocks are in an especially weak position.

The cost to borrow shares like AMC and GameStop is stratospheric, sometimes passing 100% per year. With fees like that, the stock either craters ASAP or you lose a fortune.

Add that to intense retail interest, and you have a recipe for disaster.

I don’t know where markets are headed. But I do know that paying double or triple digit interest rates to short a volatile stock is reckless.

And what of the bigger names, like Nvidia or Microsoft? Well, it so happens those two companies are some of the most likely to benefit from major advances in AI.

Nvidia makes GPU’s, the chips AI relies on. Microsoft owns a huge piece of OpenAI, one of the best companies in the space.

If AI fever begins to power markets, short sellers in those names will be running for cover.

In general, short selling is a poor strategy. Your upside is capped at 100%, your downside is unlimited, and you’re swimming against the generally rising tide of markets.

I prefer to buy great businesses for the long term.

What do you think is next for short sellers? Leave a comment and let me know!

More on markets:

SEC Refuses to Address Massive Fraud in Markets

Major Hedge Fund Down 54% — Survival in Doubt

Citadel’s Illegal Trades — The Tip of the Iceberg?

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Photo: Prominent Tesla short seller Jim Chanos. “Jim Chanos and Stephen Roach at Asia Society New York” by Asia Society is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0.

I See Negative Gross Margin Businesses

I recently met with a startup that’s dead broke. They’re convinced that if only they could raise another round, everything will work.

It won’t. Here’s why…


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Some startups are negative gross margin businesses. Think of this as the old cliche, “We lose money on every one, but we make it up in volume.”

Let’s say I’m going to start an Airbnb killer – Frankbnb. If Frankbnb charges $100 a night to stay in the average room, that’d be a great deal!

But how do I get hosts to accept that low price? What if I paid hosts $200 a night and ate the difference?

Everyone would be so happy! Guests and hosts would flock to my platform, and I’m off to the races.

Sounds great, but actually it winds up more like this:

Why doesn’t this work?

Because with a negative gross margin model, you can’t stop losing money. Ever.

Every guest costs you $100 a night. The more guests you sign up, the better you think you’re doing.

But in reality, each one digs you deeper into the hole.

Obviously, the real Airbnb doesn’t do this. It charges guests, then gives a percentage of that to hosts, keeping the rest.

We investors complain about negative gross margin businesses all the time. But we created them.

Easy VC funding meant startups could always raise another round. Growth was all that mattered.

In 2023, reality is hitting unsustainable startups like a ton of bricks. VC’s are laser focused on margins and burn.

Negative gross margin businesses will either adapt rapidly or die.

Look closely at your startup. Do you make money on each new customer?

If not, take a hard look at your business model before it’s too late.

Are you seeing lots of unsustainable growth? Leave a comment and let me know.

There will be no blog on Monday in honor of President’s Day. See you Tuesday.

Have a great weekend everyone!

More on tech:

Dawn of the Dead VC’s

Top VC Firms Have Great Returns…Right?

From Design to Code in Seconds with AI

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Dawn of the Dead VC’s

“This situation must be controlled before it’s too late! They are multiplying too rapidly.”

The Dawn of the Dead, 1978

That friendly VC you met on Zoom might not be what he seems. He might be…the undead!

Zombie venture firms are firms that can’t raise a new fund. So, they have no money to make new investments.

Zombies proliferate in every down market. But they’re not easy to spot.

They continue taking meetings and even diligencing companies. But the check never comes.

As a founder, you don’t have time to waste with the undead. So how do you spot them?

Let’s assume you’re raising a Series A. Here are some red flags to look for, from Danielle Morrill’s excellent blog:

• They haven’t made any series A investments in the past 6 months
• They haven’t invested outside their existing portfolio in the past 3 months
• They haven’t made ANY investment in the past 3 months (after a more regular pace in the past)
• They tell you they’re re-focusing on later stage deals, or raising a new fund


If someone says he’s a Series A investor but never makes any Series A investments, you’re wasting your time. And with runway more precious than ever, you can’t afford it.

There’s also nothing wrong with asking the VC to connect you to the founders of their recent investments. You should diligence them just as carefully as they diligence you.

After all, this could be a ten year relationship!

Making sure you’re talking to active firms matters most in a down market.

New managers raised tons of new funds at the peak. Many invested at the top of the market and will struggle to show returns.

Even worse, investors in venture (known as Limited Partners or LP’s) are pulling back. They’ve been clobbered in the public markets and have little spare cash.

Bad returns and a weak LP market means many newer venture funds are walking dead.

But no one wants to be embarrassed! So zombie VC’s often act like normal ones, taking meetings and diligencing deals.

In reality, they’re counting the days until their firm is no more.

I have compassion for the zombies — it’s a hard position to be in. But as a founder, the VC’s problem isn’t your problem, and you have no time for it.

Stick to the active players, raise your round, and get back to work!

Have you met a zombie VC? Leave a comment and let me know!

More on tech:

Top VC Firms Have Great Returns…Right?

From Design to Code in Seconds with AI

Consumer Startups: What Works and What Doesn’t

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Top VC Firms Have Great Returns…Right?

CalPERS did everything right. It won access to some of the finest venture firms: NEA, Khosla. The returns? Terrible.


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New data is pulling back the curtain on VC returns. For the $440 billion California pension fund, many venture investments have notched poor results.

From a report out this morning in Business Insider:

The CalPERS fund’s $75 million bet in 2001 on a venture fund managed by the Carlyle Group lost money. That same year, the $75 million it invested in a fund from the VC giant New Enterprise Associates yielded a dismal internal rate of return of 2.7%. A $25 million investment in DCM’s 2000 fund had a 1.9% IRR. 

Its $260 million investment in two Khosla Ventures funds in 2009 yielded an IRR of 11.8% for the early-to-midstage fund and 6.9% for the seed-stage fund. Those figures were both below the 14.7% benchmark for that year…

A fund that returns about 2.3x qualifies for the elite, top quartile. Over a 10 year fund life, that’s around 9% a year.

The funds CalPERS invested in badly missed their benchmarks.

What Went Wrong?

I have a few theories:

1) Adverse selection.

CalPERS has to report the returns of the funds it invests in. This means it’s locked out of some of the very best firms.

Again from Business Insider:

It did not help that CalPERS was locked out of top firms like Sequoia, Benchmark, and Accel because they did not want their performances publicly disclosed in filings. 

2) Too much money. Nice problem to have, right?

Not always.

You often get higher returns by investing in smaller, early stage funds.

But a startup that’s barely off the ground only needs so much cash. Give them $100 million, and they won’t know what to do with it.

This means that you can only put so much capital to work at the early stage.

But CalPERS has billions to deploy! They’ll never get there by giving $5 million at a time to little seed funds.

This pushes them to the late stage and locks them out of some of the best returns.

3) Rotten valuations. CalPERS investments in 2001 did particularly poorly.

The NASDAQ started falling in early 2000. But it didn’t bottom out until late 2002.

Meanwhile, growth stage startups generally follow the NASDAQ with a lag. So those valuations may not have bottomed until 2003 or later.

This means that for many of the later stage investments CalPERS made, the prices were likely inflated.

Wrap-Up

So, should we run like hell from venture? Not quite.

Venture returns are still higher than any other asset class.

But CalPERS has only invested in a very small number of venture funds. They haven’t placed enough bets to hit a winner.

Institutions should invest in more funds across vintages. Some are laggards, but others shoot the lights out.

You have to stay at the table long enough to win.

What do you think of investing in venture capital?

Leave a comment and let me know!

More on tech:

The Hard Thing About Hard Things

How I Decide to Double Down

From Design to Code in Seconds with AI

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Photo: Khosla Ventures founder “Vinod Khosla” by jdlasica is licensed under CC BY 2.0.

From Design to Code in Seconds with AI

I think I just saw the future.

A new tool called Bifrost can turn any Figma design into code instantly using AI. The alpha was just released yesterday, and already Twitter is blowing up.

Bifrost lets you take a graphical design for your product and make it real.

First, you design the appearance of your app using Figma, the ubiquitous design tool. Next, you turn it into React code with a couple of clicks.

It even learns how your team likes to code to make sure its output matches your style.

The average front-end web developer makes $152,000 a year. If Bifrost can make them even 20% more productive, that’s worth $30,000 a year.

Per person.

Today, Bifrost can create web app front-ends. In the future, Bifrost and tools like it may produce all forms of software.

Perhaps most amazing is the tiny team that produced this huge advance. Bifrost appears to have just four engineers.

I’m very excited about what a tool like Bifrost can do! Many people have awesome ideas for products but don’t know how to code them.

Removing that barrier could unleash a whole new wave of entrepreneurs.

What do you think of Bifrost? Leave a comment and let me know!

More on tech:

The Hard Thing About Hard Things

Consumer Startups: What Works and What Doesn’t

Zero to One

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